Brexit never? Britain can still change its mind, says Article 50 author

[simoh1490]

12 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Your moot questions are not an argument and nobody can answer them right now, especially you.

 

This is a debate, not an interrogation. For a real debate you need facts, not fiction. That's why Clegg always lost.

 

The game is far from over and you are no match.

 

 

So none of those questions can be answered or answers to them even imagined or guessed at, really, are you certain!

 

And when people voted for Brexit they said to themselves, I dunno what's going to happen, the questions can't be answered but what the heck, I'll vote for Brexit anyway, is that what they really did? Please, tell me it didn't actually happen that way!

[nauseus]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

So none of those questions can be answered or answers to them even imagined or guessed at, really, are you certain!

 

And when people voted for Brexit they said to themselves, I dunno what's going to happen, the questions can't be answered but what the heck, I'll vote for Brexit anyway, is that what they really did? Please, tell me it didn't actually happen that way!

OK, It didn't. Feel better?

[baansgr]

Just now, nauseus said:

OK, It didn't. Feel better?

Regardless of the answers/guesswork to the question its all really irrelevant to the OP. Britain wont and dosnt want to change its mind. A 2nd vote would d be a bigger disaster for the remoaners providing a legit ballot was held, omitting postal and students double votes. The OP dosnt rquire 21 pages of mudslinging and insults whereas all proof leads to the fact the electorate are hapy with the outcome of last dt June. 

[Khun Han]

7 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Apologies I wasn't able to continue the debate but other plans came up right after I posted my question.

 

Those questions are being discussed daily in the global remain/brexit debate, the remain camp has repeatedly said what their view is of what will happen on those points if we Brexit and those things are now coming true. Ask any person familiar with the remain argument and they will know the answers to them.

 

So now I want to know what the Brexit position is on the outcome of those points and since they are so well discussed by virtually everyone, it should be a simple matter to pen a few words about each point without deferring to links as a distraction. But since I've asked these questions many times and never received an answer, I'm beginning to think that many people who are debating the Brexit issue simply don't know which supports and lends credibility to the Brexit voter demographics that Brexit voters were not the best educated and as a result, don't understand the implications of what they are arguing for! Never once have I seen anything even loosely resembling an economic forecast from Brexiteers, never once have I seen Brexiteers able to successfully debate economics in a meaningful way yet they are able, mystically, to shoot down economic forecasts put forward by remain by declaring them to be "rubbish". Well come on, what's your version of those things?

 

 

So, you don't accept a well thought-out, well-explained, positive prediction for a post- brexit future. Instead, you prefer to make the oft repeated fake claim that remain's predictions about the economy are coming to fruition. They're not. The economy is doing fine ("But the exchange rate! The exchange rate!!!"). Throw in the usual insult toward brexiters in general (really strengthens your argument that, doesn't it?), and we have from you what our American friends refer to as a big fat nothing burger.

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

In this thread, I asked the questions first. It's your style to cop out by asking the same question in reverse without ever answering the ones put you, that's a game for children. Either answer the questions or the debate ends, your choice.

 

I provided a link which answers them. But you copped-out by flatly rejecting any link as a response. I could go to the trouble of paraphrasing everything in the linked article, if you want?

[AGareth2]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

I could go to the trouble of paraphrasing everything in the linked article, if you want?

cheers

[Khun Han]

4 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

7 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

I could go to the trouble of paraphrasing everything in the linked article, if you want?

cheers

 

Ok, gimme about an hour. It's breakfast time here in Manchester.

[AGareth2]

4 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ok, gimme about an hour. It's breakfast time here in Manchester.

enjoy your black pudding

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

I provided a link which answers them. But you copped-out by flatly rejecting any link as a response. I could go to the trouble of paraphrasing everything in the linked article, if you want?

You provided answers to these questions?

 

What are the tangible beneifts to the UK as a whole, of Brexxit.

 

What will be the impact of Brexit on the UK economy during the first five and ten years, will it grow or will it shrink

 

What will happen to the Pound vs USD exchange rate, will it rise, fall or remain the same, ranges will do.

 

Will immigration numbers drop more than 10%

 

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

 

Will Brexit cause taxes to rise, fall or remain the same.

 

Really, where?

 

Given the ferocity and passion with which you guys.......I want to say debate this subject, but can't, since you haven't really yet got into a mode of doing what most people understand to be debate, you know, cite facts, state an argument, provide supportive evidence, accept  rebuttal, challenge etc., you're still in the mode of no you didn't, yes we did, no you didn't etc.......but anyway, given the ferocity with which you guys  argue, I'd have thought the asnwers wouldn't need an article for reference and that you could just roll them off the top of your heads, you know, for example, like:

 

Pound - up

Immigration - down

NHS - more sending

Taxes - same

etc.

 

But it seems even those simple things are too much to ask.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, AGareth2 said:

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

I could go to the trouble of paraphrasing everything in the linked article, if you want?

cheers

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

Right out of the gate, the article says that FDI has soared since the vote but it has failed to explain what and why. Indeed FDI has increased substantially as foreign companies have taken advantage of a devalued Pound and they have bought up British businesses. There's good FDI and there's bad FDI, that kind of FDI isbad FDI.

[tomacht8]

9 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

Patrick Minford!
You can read about his scientific reputation everywhere.

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21727078-patrick-minford-thinks-gdp-could-increase-68-most-economists-say-brexit-will-hurt

[simoh1490]

"IT IS rare to find economists united, but on Brexit most are: leaving the European Union will reduce GDP, and quitting the single market and customs union (a hard Brexit) will make the loss bigger. Yet a group called Economists for Free Trade, led by Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, disagrees. Mr Minford forecasts that a hard Brexit followed by the unilateral abolition of all trade barriers and much EU regulation would boost Britain’s GDP by 6.8%, or £135bn ($175bn)".

 

"If Mr Minford’s economics are dubious, his political judgment is worse". 

 

Whose side are you arguing for Hans, have you switched sides and not told anyone?

[baansgr]

38 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You provided answers to these questions?

 

What are the tangible beneifts to the UK as a whole, of Brexxit.

 

What will be the impact of Brexit on the UK economy during the first five and ten years, will it grow or will it shrink

 

What will happen to the Pound vs USD exchange rate, will it rise, fall or remain the same, ranges will do.

 

Will immigration numbers drop more than 10%

 

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

 

Will Brexit cause taxes to rise, fall or remain the same.

 

Really, where?

 

Given the ferocity and passion with which you guys.......I want to say debate this subject, but can't, since you haven't really yet got into a mode of doing what most people understand to be debate, you know, cite facts, state an argument, provide supportive evidence, accept  rebuttal, challenge etc., you're still in the mode of no you didn't, yes we did, no you didn't etc.......but anyway, given the ferocity with which you guys  argue, I'd have thought the asnwers wouldn't need an article for reference and that you could just roll them off the top of your heads, you know, for example, like:

 

Pound - up

Immigration - down

NHS - more sending

Taxes - same

etc.

 

But it seems even those simple things are too much to ask.

As it really seems to be so much of a bugbear to you, Ill play your game and answer so we can move on.

The answer to all the above is not determined soley by leaving or staying in the EU, The budget this week will have an effect on at least 2 issues

[rockingrobin]

15 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

"IT IS rare to find economists united, but on Brexit most are: leaving the European Union will reduce GDP, and quitting the single market and customs union (a hard Brexit) will make the loss bigger. Yet a group called Economists for Free Trade, led by Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, disagrees. Mr Minford forecasts that a hard Brexit followed by the unilateral abolition of all trade barriers and much EU regulation would boost Britain’s GDP by 6.8%, or £135bn ($175bn)".

 

"If Mr Minford’s economics are dubious, his political judgment is worse". 

 

Whose side are you arguing for Hans, have you switched sides and not told anyone?

He also gave evidence to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in 2012, where he said that if we were to remove the protection given to the car industry, and others , they would have to be run down in a similar fashion to coal and steal

Minford has also stated that leaving the EU will eliminate the majority of UK manufacturing

[simoh1490]

Not even close to being an answer to my questions, budgets are a known entity, they take place every year, Brexit is a once in a lifetime event so please try again to answer the questions.

[Kenegg]

On 17/11/2017 at 8:38 AM, taipeir said:

Lol that was the attitude of British empire for hundreds of years.India, South Africa, Kenya, Ireland, United States. learn your own history.

 

 

The EU administration have no interest to particularly help a member benefit from leaving the union, why would they?

 

More whining as Tory govt is a complete shambles and Brexit spoofers have been found out already.

 

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

I think I know my own countries  history but do you know yours....

[tomacht8]

38 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-can-benefit-from-a-free-trade-future-after-brexit-even-outside-the-single-market-84171

 

The article begins by explaining the history of the European customs union (German protectionism). It promotes the view that a Britain free of that protectionism and bureaucracy can flourish in free trade with the rest of the world.

 

The article then goes on to point out that economic forecasters got their post-referendum forecasts badly wrong, and posits that they got it wrong because they adhere to the 'gravity model' of economics, in which it's considered to be best practice to be as physically and culturally close to your favoured trading partners as possible. It's suggested that this is a fallacy, as shown by history: All of Britain's major trading partners in the nineteenth century were on the other side of the world (ok, different world now, I know), and Britain's exports to the EU have actually fallen in percentage in recent years.

 

The article then expands on the theory that a 'classical model' of Britain trading globally, free of assorted EU shackles and financial commitments, can see a 7% increase in GDP. For those who are genuinely interested in this, not just scoring points on internet fora, the economist Patrick Minford goes into great detail here:

 

http://brexitcentral.com/brexit-free-trade-critics-wrong-dismiss-classical-model/

Minford's assumptions are based on the perfect market model.

The 5 premises of the perfect market are:
1. unlimited reaction speed of the market to price changes
2. no personal preferences in the trade
3. no problems with geographical bridging.
4. All market participants have the same information.
5. All goods are homogeneous.

This is a 200 year old theoretical model.
But has nothing to do with the practice of the real economies on this planet.
 

[nauseus]

On 11/17/2017 at 5:56 PM, simoh1490 said:

ANY Brexiteer, please tell us (the Remain position on these points is already known):

 

What are the tangible beneifts to the UK as a whole, of Brexxit.

 

What will be the impact of Brexit on the UK economy during the first five and ten years, will it grow or will it shrink

 

What will happen to the Pound vs USD exchange rate, will it rise, fall or remain the same, ranges will do.

 

Will immigration numbers drop more than 10%

 

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

 

Will Brexit cause taxes to rise, fall or remain the same.

 

 

What will be the impact of Brexit on the UK economy during the first five and ten years, will it grow or will it shrink

Shrink then recover. EU will just wobble then continue to shrink, especially if no trade deal with UK.

 

What will happen to the Pound vs USD exchange rate, will it rise, fall or remain the same, ranges will do.

Fall then recover again but it is liable to survive - can't say the same for the Euro.

 

Will immigration numbers drop more than 10% 

After a time, yes.

 

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

Yes.

 

Will Brexit cause taxes to rise, fall or remain the same.

Same but if Labour get in next time they will rise in UK!

 

These are my opinions (best guesstimates) as you wanted.  

The prime driver for most of the markets today is just sentiment.

 

I can just imagine what's coming next........

 

[Khun Han]

25 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Minford's assumptions are based on the perfect market model.

The 5 premises of the perfect market are:
1. unlimited reaction speed of the market to price changes
2. no personal preferences in the trade
3. no problems with geographical bridging.
4. All market participants have the same information.
5. All goods are homogeneous.

This is a 200 year old theoretical model.
But has nothing to do with the practice of the real economies on this planet.
 

 

The model does not work as you say. Try reading it in detail. And it is a model which is perfectly suitable to today's world.

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

What will be the impact of Brexit on the UK economy during the first five and ten years, will it grow or will it shrink

Shrink then recover. EU will just wobble then continue to shrink, especially if no trade deal with UK.

 

What will happen to the Pound vs USD exchange rate, will it rise, fall or remain the same, ranges will do.

Fall then recover again but it is liable to survive - can't say the same for the Euro.

 

Will immigration numbers drop more than 10% 

After a time, yes.

 

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

Yes.

 

Will Brexit cause taxes to rise, fall or remain the same.

Same but if Labour get in next time they will rise in UK!

 

These are my opinions (best guesstimates) as you wanted.  

The prime driver for most of the markets today is just sentiment.

 

I can just imagine what's coming next........

 

Thank you, at least it's a start....we can work on this going forward.

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

Thank you, at least it's a start....we can work on this going forward.

You can work in whatever you like.

I'm off for some wedding cake!

[AGareth2]

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Will the NHS get more funding or less as a result of Brexit.

Yes.

lol

[baansgr]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

Thank you, at least it's a start....we can work on this going forward.

That sounds just like something Abbott would say. As ststed earlier its really irelevent to the OP

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

lol

Don't be harsh, there is a money tree, really!

[tomacht8]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

The model does not work as you say. Try reading it in detail. And it is a model which is perfectly suitable to today's world.

Do not worry, have studied theoretical micro, macro and national economics accounts for years.
I had studied monetary policy and monetary theory with Otmar Issing.
Minford's theories are known to me.

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, baansgr said:

That sounds just like something Abbott would say. As ststed earlier its really irelevent to the OP

What's an Abbott, I am not a religous person?

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

Right out of the gate, the article says that FDI has soared since the vote but it has failed to explain what and why. Indeed FDI has increased substantially as foreign companies have taken advantage of a devalued Pound and they have bought up British businesses. There's good FDI and there's bad FDI, that kind of FDI isbad FDI.

 

Of course, big FDI by the likes of Google, Siemens, Astra Zeneca, etc, don't count do they? And you conveniently omit that Project Fear's pet economists predicted a huge drop in FDI. How did they make that schoolboy error? They couldn't possibly have been scaremongering, could they?

[adammike]

37 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Not even close to being an answer to my questions, budgets are a known entity, they take place every year, Brexit is a once in a lifetime event so please try again to answer the questions.

how bad will it have to get in the UK [ I say the UK it may not survive brexit] before they rejoin the EU and adopt the euro?.Who is going to be the biggest disaster for the UK the Tory's or the labour party.The brexiteers take every opportunity to find fault with Europe and point out any divisions, but at the age of 66 I can not remember Britain being this divided and down right nasty as it is now, even during the thatcher years and the fear that Ronald Regan it was not like this.As private Fraser would say ¨we are doomed¨

[simoh1490]

5 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Of course, big FDI by the likes of Google, Siemens, Astra Zeneca, etc, don't count do they? And you conveniently omit that Project Fear's pet economists predicted a huge drop in FDI. How did they make that schoolboy error? They couldn't possibly have been scaremongering, could they?

 

Seimens is German, Google is American and AstraZeneca is anglo Sweedish, all of which confirms my point about FDI being a result of increases in the value of foreign currencies.

 

Yes agreed, the economists did predict a huge drop in FDI following the vote which didn't take place, probably because the value of the Pound plummeted so much following the yes vote. After all, what would you do if you were a foreign buyer of (Thai Baht FOR EXAMPLE) if the value of the baht fell by up to 20% against your home currency, why you'd buy of course!