OPINION

Prayut in the driver’s seat as election countdown begins

By Tulsathit Taptim 
The Nation

 

Politics has returned to front pages in a hurry. Stressed as we might be, it’s difficult to blame anyone, because one year is a short rehearsal time for a general election, especially if you are Prayut Chan-o-cha, his opponents Pheu Thai, its opponents the Democrat Party, and all the supporting cast.
 

The key battle will be between the military government and Pheu Thai. While that is clear, the rest of the picture is blurry, if not a mess. Will Prayut’s supporters manage to manoeuvre his return as post-election prime minister, possibly with the help of a yet-to-be-formed alternative party? Will Pheu Thai forge a hitherto unimaginable alliance with the Democrats to keep him out? Who will succeed Yingluck Shinawatra as the next leader of Pheu Thai? And will he or she go for broke or be ready to their cut losses by horse-trading with rivals?

 

What about the Democrats? Will Abhisit Vejjajiva remain their leader going into the polls, or will the party want a new face to sex things up? Will Thaksin Shinawatra continue funding Pheu Thai, knowing his “investment” faces perhaps more risk than ever?

What happens to the party if he backs away, deciding that election victories are just “boasting rights” that he has had enough of? Or will he give it one last try?

 

Right now, we can only speculate on the answers. More certain is that signs of all-out political warfare are few, meaning everyone is still watching their own back, wary of knives from within and without. Much of the paranoia has to do with senators’ empowerment in selecting the prime minister, coupled with Prayut’s popularity, whose ebb and flow will hit new levels of volatility from here on in.

 

Prayut’s rating on election day will determine the vote’s outcome. Since he is the figure pitted against the Shinawatra clan, if voters like him, they will like the latter less. And vice versa. It’s that simple.

 

Recent ministerial departures and talk of a Cabinet shake-up strongly indicate Prayut is gauging his popularity carefully. Still unclear, though, is his ultimate ambition. His latest cheeky questions to the Thai people, effectively asking whether they want the same old post-election politics where controversial characters dominate decision-making, can be interpreted in various ways.

 

He’s addicted to power, his most vocal critics say. He wants his coup to amount to something, his supporters insist.

So, everybody is waiting for clearer signs from everybody else. Prayut wants to know who will be Pheu Thai’s next leader so he can decide on his next moves. Pheu Thai wants to know his ultimate plans so it can devise strategies accordingly. The biggest party is also waiting for a stronger signal from Thaksin than his “Montesquieu” tweet in the wake of his sister’s vanishing act.

 

Thaksin, meanwhile, is probably awaiting signs from voters of how many seats they will give Pheu Thai in the election. 

This doesn’t mean things are any easier for the Democrats, though, because if Prayut’s rating dips, Pheu Thai will have a great head-start as his No 1 rival. In other words, the Democrats want to know how well or badly Prayut is going to fare in the coming months.

 

The Democrat Party has sent out mixed messages regarding Prayut, while Pheu Thai has taken the path of direct confrontation, asking him to “unlock” coup-imposed restraints on political activities. Should the public grow tired of Prayut over the next few months, Pheu Thai has “scored” early. But if they believe Prayut’s claim of acting for the sake of peace, the call to unlock politics should work in the Democrats’ favour.

 

The political “supporting cast” is also watching the prime minister’s popularity rating carefully. If it plunges, they will gravitate to Pheu Thai. If not, they will hedge their bets accordingly.

 

Will Pheu Thai definitely win the election? The general perception is that it’s not a question of “if” but “by how much”. However, it might not emerge as the biggest party after the poll, and that depends on two key factors: Prayut’s popularity and whether or not a third party is formed. Analysts agree that a third party would likely attract a number of former Pheu Thai lawmakers, who are about as loyal to Thaksin as European footballers are to their clubs.

 

And again, how well a third party would perform at the polls would depend largely on Prayut. Among all the people or groups mentioned, he is the one with the greatest control over his own destiny. He didn’t have to ask those “questions”, in fact, since the answers are tied to the work that he has done and will do in the next few months.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30331621

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-11-15

It will crash, like a Thai minivan! 

Interesting article; it lays out many of the interesting questions to come...

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Prayut’s rating on election day will determine the vote’s outcome. Since he is the figure pitted against the Shinawatra clan, if voters like him, they will like the latter less. And vice versa. It’s that simple.

 

Respect to the author, but I don't believe that is the key question, nor do I believe that it is that simple. 

 

I think that the key question lies with the Dems. In order for Prayut to become PM again, he will need the support of one of the major parties, and obviously the PTP isn't not going to support him. The military might try to set up a new party, but the Dems have planted deep roots in Bangkok and the south, and it would be difficult for a new party to challenge that much. In Bangkok/North, the PTP has planted roots, and it would be very difficult to rip those out, even with the military cheating. It is a fact of life that people tend to continue voting for their party no matter what; I cannot give you a great explanation as to why, but any political scientist will confirm it. A new military-backed party would likely win a few seats, but not many. And if Prayut tries to form a government based on the appointed senate, I predict wide-spread discontent, both at home and abroad.

 

So, will the Dems support Prayut?

 

THAT is the question. And one that should be answered sooner rather than later.

 

 

Edited November 14, 20178 yr by Samui Bodoh

The reds and dems joining up purely to keep Prayut and his buddies as far away from politics as they can. Now that really would hurt Prayut’s feelings. 

UT will continue as pm there is no doubt, elections or not. They hold all the aces, all 5 of them.

He will be driving off of a Cliff if he messes about with the election

2 hours ago, webfact said:

: Prayut’s popularity and whether or not a third party is formed.

20,000 entertained his questionnaire, if he decides his political move based on this minority he may be in for a shock. He have to section 44 himself into wide popularity.

After about 2 paragraphs it occured to me the writer is actually serious. At first i thought it was just a comedy bid.

 

There wont be free and fair elections.

 

Not that it matters, whoever wins will have very limited power anyways as they will be forced to follow the 20-year plan the military is now writing.

 

Prayuts goal is not about democracy, peace, or helping the country. He is just there to secure the power, and with that the flow of money, for him and his friends.

 

This whole article is (purposely) focusing on the wrong thing. By putting attention on the election they distract from the real important part: democracy is being hollowed out and Thailand will only be democratic on paper.

 

Its like discussion if you want chocolate sprinkles or a cherry on top of your birthday cake made out of buffelo shit and poison.

Edited November 15, 20178 yr by Bob12345

6 minutes ago, Bob12345 said:

After about 2 paragraphs it occured to me the writer is actually serious. At first i thought it was just a comedy bid.

 

There wont be free and fair elections.

 

Not that it matters, whoever wins will have very limited power anyways as they will be forced to follow the 20-year plan the military is now writing.

 

Prayuts goal is not about democracy, peace, or helping the country. He is just there to secure the power, and with that the flow of money, for him and his friends.

 

This whole article is (purposely) focusing on the wrong thing. By putting attention on the election they distract from the real important part: democracy is being hollowed out and Thailand will only be democratic on paper.

 

Its like discussion if you want chocolate sprinkles or a cherry on top of your birthday cake made out of buffelo shit and poison.

I don't even think on paper it's democratic 

Well, as long as the girls are cheap and the beers still flowing most people wont care.

I imagine their will be a strong, anything but what we got now, vibe running. But with such polarity in the country it is hard to imagine an orange coalition. It would be the best thing for Thailand though.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He’s addicted to power, his most vocal critics say. He wants his coup to amount to something, his supporters insist.

He needs to go and fade into obscurity.  People just need to forget the last three wasted years of government gone wild.

3 hours ago, rkidlad said:

The reds and dems joining up purely to keep Prayut and his buddies as far away from politics as they can. Now that really would hurt Prayut’s feelings. 

And save the country.  The yellows were for the ousting of the last government, they are responsible for helping clean up the mess.  Keeping the general from retaining power would be most important, and given they have no chance of winning, the right thing to do.  Doing the right thing now, could help there standing in the north and east in the future.  It could also undermine the Shinawartras future influence.  

Edited November 15, 20178 yr by yellowboat

I hope there won't be elections. Prayut can stay on as long as he likes.

50 minutes ago, BuaBS said:

I hope there won't be elections. Prayut can stay on as long as he likes.

'cmon be honest. You just wrote this in hope to get flowers and a bottle of wine from Steven 100.

Since the author of this article is Tulsathit Taptim, I will take the article as an attempt to made a big deal out of under achiever Prayut. If he is trying to portray him as a viable candidate who will participate in the election on a level playing field, I am not convinced. His popularity is declining and at its low ebb and only the fake poll is misleading the people. The people want him out sooner the better and everyone is struggling with the bad economy. At the end of the day, his popularity will depend on bread and butter issues and how well the people are feed. If he think that he can engineer a positive election for himself, we will re-visit 1992 again.  

The Junta and Khun Prayuth seem to have it all in play. Thailand is ticking over and things are moving.

I believe Khun Prayuth will be here for a good while yet.

And the nayers ... well,  they can go do what they like ..

6 minutes ago, steven100 said:

The Junta and Khun Prayuth seem to have it all in play. Thailand is ticking over and things are moving.

I believe Khun Prayuth will be here for a good while yet.

And the nayers ... well,  they can go do what they like ..

As a leader, Khun Prayuth is very thinned skinned, terrified of debate, horrified of scrutiny and cannot verbally defend himself as well as you can.  It is sad if you do not think your country is capable of or entitled to better leadership.

My question is, is Prayut and his green uniformed cronies so deluded to actually believe they have any popularity at all.

 

Apart from a few much derided TV posters.

What on earth is the point of elections in Thailand? The military will kick out any government that they disagree with, as they always do.

 

Elections are a total waste of time and money.

 

1 minute ago, dbrenn said:

What on earth is the point of elections in Thailand? The military will kick out any government that they disagree with, as they always do.

 

Elections are a total waste of time and money.

 

Can see your point, but without elections, Thailand will lose face in the west and they need the west as much as they need China.  Thai officialdom and elites fear the outside world far more than the humble Thai.  If they did not try to develop with a representative government, Thailand would be looked down upon.  That and it is becoming blisteringly apparent to everyone in Thailand that the army cannot govern.  It cannot stand scrutiny.  It cannot defend itself in a debate.  It just does not work.  Even if done with good intentions, endless committees have yielded nothing but give cronies jobs at the expense of the Thai tax payer. 

10 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

What on earth is the point of elections in Thailand? The military will kick out any government that they disagree with, as they always do.

 

Elections are a total waste of time and money.

 

Because the majority of the people want election. What the military want to do is immaterial. Freedom of choice and universal suffrage are not measured in time and money. Many lives and money were lost for those who want democracy in the world. Worth every cents of these sacrifices.  

And save the country.  The yellows were for the ousting of the last government, they are responsible for helping clean up the mess.  Keeping the general from retaining power would be most important, and given they have no chance of winning, the right thing to do.  Doing the right thing now, could help there standing in the north and east in the future.  It could also undermine the Shinawartras future influence.  

Logical.

Pragmatic.

Sensible.

In many ways a splendid idea.

Restart democratic politics with a "grand coalition" of elected politicians; but for Suthep, his gang, and the nascent "Volunteers for Democracy".

These two groups will ensure that things get very messy.

 

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

election countdown begins

 

10, 9, 8, 7 ...

*reset*

10, 9, 8, 7 ...

*reset*

10, 9, 8, 7 ...

*reset*

 

ad infinitum

27 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Can see your point, but without elections, Thailand will lose face in the west and they need the west as much as they need China.  Thai officialdom and elites fear the outside world far more than the humble Thai.  If they did not try to develop with a representative government, Thailand would be looked down upon.  That and it is becoming blisteringly apparent to everyone in Thailand that the army cannot govern.  It cannot stand scrutiny.  It cannot defend itself in a debate.  It just does not work.  Even if done with good intentions, endless committees have yielded nothing but give cronies jobs at the expense of the Thai tax payer. 

You make a great point- good post.

 

But, I would expand on the post by @EricLoh as well (another good post)

 

You have described both outside pressures and pressure from 'above' on why the military cannot continue. But, there is pressure from a third source, from below.

 

We, and I think more accurately high-so Thais, tend to think that the general populace is not too politically aware, but the events of the last decade or so have proved otherwise. There are those who think that the 'Reds' only came out because they were 'paid', but that is stupid nonsense. The Thai people, especially the proverbial 'little guy' have seen that their vote matters and that they do have some power. What they lack is leadership and the means to use their power. But, that power IS there, and they know it.

 

The military knows that they cannot govern anymore with out some consent from the general populace, thus the old-age scheme, the poor persons scheme, etc. are being rolled out. And yes, despite all their hypocritical BS, these are pure 'populist' schemes.

 

If there are no elections soon, the general public, the majority, will stop caring so much and the country itself will begin to flag. A successful country is one where the general public trusts its leaders, and when that trust is lost, lethargy sets in, putting the country on the slow road to decline. Look at Burma next door...

 

There HAVE to be elections soon, and the military knows it.

 

 

Edited November 15, 20178 yr by Samui Bodoh

19 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

There are those who think that the 'Reds' only came out because they were 'paid', but that is stupid nonsense

Best part of your excellent post at least to me. Many of the reds haters doesn’t know nor understand the movement. In their myopic view, Reds are violent Thaksin supporters. Will not bother to go into details. Just let them wallow in their ignorance. Last decade was an awakening for them and they will not be taken for granted again. Matter of their threshold for tolerance and patience.

Didn't read 

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