Whose knife will be in whose back?

[webfact]

OPINION

Whose knife will be in whose back?

 

For the key players, the next election is all about deciding whether to sell their souls.

 

That is the kind way to put it. Being more direct, we could say brutal and shameless betrayal is in store. Or in polite language: some may be forced to join hands with the “lesser” evil.

 

Whatever happens, it won’t be straightforward. All of the players will face unattractive choices, but you can’t feel sympathy for them, because those choices are unnecessarily bleak. 

 

Let’s start with the military, or Prayut Chan-o-cha, to be exact. If political reform is his ultimate motive (his “soul”), he faces an acid test. To extend his stay at the top, he will need the support of people he has often frowned upon. And to win their backing, he is likely to have to embrace practices he has often denounced, in public at least.

 

Simply put, if the Democrat Party shuns him, Prayut will have to woo smaller parties. He will have to make them lucrative offers they can’t refuse, or else they will flock to “the other side”, and his coup in 2014 will in practical terms have been for nothing.

 

Now to the Democrats. If wiping out the Shinawatras’s influence is their key objective (their “soul”), the country’s oldest party also faces a tough choice. Should it work with Prayut to slam another nail in the Shinawatra coffin, or should it tag-team with Pheu Thai first to oust the bigger problem – the military?

 

What about Pheu Thai? Two years ago, an alliance with the Democrats was unthinkable. Now, it’s what everyone is talking about.

The new unelected Senate’s provisional power to join the lower House in electing the next prime minister means that to keep Prayut out of the way, Pheu Thai will have to all-but control the House – an unlikely event without the Democrats’ help.

 

The last group is the smaller parties. They don’t have to worry about selling their souls as much. No disrespect to them, but their main worry is political survival, meaning they can always say “screw ideology”. They will likely sell themselves to the highest bidder, be it the military, the Democrats or Pheu Thai.

 

Prayut could form a new party, but it would be a lot easier to take over an existing one. Either way, he will need to lure conventional politicians to come under his wing. “Conventional” means they would be willing to do whatever it takes to get elected and win Cabinet posts. No matter how much Prayut disdains mainstream politicians, he will need them if he wants to remain in power beyond the general election.

 

This is where Thais’ hope of seeing a healthy democracy is in greatest jeopardy. Despite the attempts by every reformer to convince us that political reform is extremely difficult, it actually boils down to the simple thing of putting the right man for the people in the right job. A Democrat-Pheu Thai alliance, if successful, would be unlikely to produce a straightforward and honest Cabinet. The same goes if Prayut partners with small parties. A Prayut-Democrat link-up, meanwhile, is best for Prayut politically but bad for the latter in ideological terms.

 

It’s the modern Thai version of China’s classic “Romance of the Three Kingdoms”. In 2010, protesters backed by Pheu Thai besieged a Democrat government in a bloody showdown, and sent Pheu Thai to an election victory in the process. In 2013, massive protests backed by the Democrat Party crippled a Pheu Thai government, allowing Prayut to take over. Now, Prayut is the most powerful of the lot, and the Democrats and Pheu Thai are well aware that the only way to contain him is through an alliance of epic irony.

 

But world history shows us that anything is indeed possible. America sided with Russia to finish off the Germany-Japan alliance in World War II, then quickly turned against Russia in a decades-long Cold War during which Germany was Washington’s significant ally and economically powerful Japan was a pro-US bystander. What we have yet to see is a Russia-Germany partnership designed to destroy America – but don’t rule it out.

 

Politics at all levels is pretty much the same.

 

Writer’s note: I have personified “democracy” as a character in several of my previous columns. The story behind that decision goes back about a decade and a half to my first such column, which was intended as a one-off. But then I received an enthusiastic response by postcard, sent by someone who apparently read it on a plane. Inspiring me to do similar pieces, that totally unexpected postcard was signed “Surin Pitsuwan”.

 

May his soul rest in peace. 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-12-06

[cornishcarlos]

I'm not a big follower of politics, especially the Thai fiasco, but that was quite a well written and informative piece.

 

Still no wiser though :) 

[Samui Bodoh]

Interesting article; I am coming around to the idea that there is hope for the Nation.

 

The author looks at the issue from the perspective of who can gain by an alliance with who. He lays out many of the pluses and minuses well, but I think that his perspective is wrong.

 

A better way to view this is who would lose by an alliance, and with who. The next election, hopefully this coming year (yeah, I know...), will be a huge turning point for the country and will have repercussions for the next generation and beyond. The issue will be do the forces of Democracy, flawed as they are, prevail or will the forces of the Un-elected/Appointed prevail.

 

I am certainly biased towards the forces of Democracy, again flawed as they are. 

 

Should the Democrat party, or some combination of the smaller parties, support the military in the post-election period, they will carry that stain to their graves (having the 'Reds' support the military is unthinkable). You can argue about policies. You can argue about personnel. You can argue about proper representation; you can argue endlessly about the political situation in a country (the 'Fun' of politics!).

 

In the end, the difference is clear. A democratically elected government can be removed by vote and a non-democratically elected government cannot be. That trumps all discussion.

 

Its up to you, Thai people.

 

[Chris Lawrence]

The bat and ball Conundrum. The military has just upgraded their arsenal, so they intend to be the drivers, no matter what.

[greenchair]

I don't understand how an entire population can be so blinded by what to me is obvious. 

Prayut doesn't need to or have to do anything or side with anyone unless he explicitly feels that he wants to. He has section 44 which overrules all laws, including the constitution and any organic laws. He also has the law that absolves him of everything that he wants to be absolved from. Every year the population are told "there will be an election late next year or early the following year " the carrot and the ass come to mind. why does anyone think 2018 election will not be 2019 and so on. 

Am I cynical. The ncpo will be in power until they say they will not be in power. They don't Have to do anything. 2018 election in my mind is highly unlikely. 

[leeneeds]

Hun sen giving advice to khun Prayut,

and that advice is taken on board, this region could have the two longest serving

Pm s,

[klauskunkel]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Whose knife will be in whose back?

Very apt metaphor, mainly because it's like having taxi drivers governing a nation.

[Cadbury]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

".....some may be forced to join hands with the “lesser” evil".

Those so called "key" players should be reminded of the old saying.

"He who sups with the devil should have a long spoon"

 

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, greenchair said:

I don't understand how an entire population can be so blinded by what to me is obvious. 

Prayut doesn't need to or have to do anything or side with anyone unless he explicitly feels that he wants to. He has section 44 which overrules all laws, including the constitution and any organic laws. He also has the law that absolves him of everything that he wants to be absolved from. Every year the population are told "there will be an election late next year or early the following year " the carrot and the ass come to mind. why does anyone think 2018 election will not be 2019 and so on. 

Am I cynical. The ncpo will be in power until they say they will not be in power. They don't Have to do anything. 2018 election in my mind is highly unlikely. 

Good post. I think that the NCPO might well try to stay in power, and they may well succeed; we'll see in a while. However, I don't think they will succeed for a number of reasons.

 

Expectations. The Thai people expect elections; there have been elections for decades now and have become part of the socio-political fabric. If the NCPO tries to do away with elections, I think there will be a large outcry, and not just from the 'Red' side. Further, the term of a government is usually considered to be about four years and then it requires some kind of renewal or a new mandate. Yes, different countries have different timelines, but four years is, I think, a median. Finally, the NCPO has said from day one that there will be elections, even if they keep delaying them. There is a question of credibility; if they break their word too much, their credibility goes down the drain. Yes, before you say that they have broken their word already, they haven't tried to cancel elections, and they did say that the Funeral and Coronation needed to occur (legitimate reasons). If they try to do away with elections entirely, or try to delay them too much, I think it will cause a backlash from all sides.

 

Politicians. Politicians aren't going to go anywhere, and will continue to keep talking and talking. It'll be a constant reminder to the populace that the legitimacy of the government is in question. It is easy to complain about politicians, but they are quite good at influencing public opinion. And if you try to shut them up completely, it is likely to cause a backlash from all sides.

 

Competence. With the exception of a few nutcases, few people would argue that the country is doing well. Yes, there aren't any/many street demos, but the economy is lagging far behind the neighbours and people know it. Further, we have seen a few recent examples where the current lot have shown that they are not very good at governing; see the registration of Aliens fiasco for example. This lack of competence reflects not only on the current regime, it also reflects poorly on the entire military, and that matters. We tend to think of the military as a unified force, but even a cursory reading of Thai history shows that not to be true. If the current lot embarrass the military in general, then they will need to watch their backs closely. Better to be 'behind the scenes'.

 

Responsibility. Further to the point above, the current lot have responsibility for the state of the nation, and most think it is lagging. That reflects poorly on the military n general and will cause disunity soon (I would guess already, but who knows?).

 

Governance. If there isn't an election and a simple coup is all that is necessary to govern, then expect a few more coup attempts soon. It is in the interest of the current lot, and everyone else, to have some kind of election/formal process/rules. I can't really add more than that.

 

Confidence. This is likely the most important thing. As above, there is a general lack of confidence these days with the Junta as evidenced by the news stories. Perhaps they can turn it around, but I think that is unlikely; once the people begin to lose confidence in a government, it is very difficult to reverse the process. If there is no election soon, then the nation's confidence will continue to slide, putting the NCPO in even a weaker position. Further, the country simply won't do well if there is a lack of confidence; it will affect all sectors and locations, it'll cross political and economic boundaries, and it is an insidious entity that damages slowly and severely. Once unleashed, it'll eat away at the nation, and I don't believe that the NCPO could hang on once it gathers steam. And if elections aren't held (reasonably) soon, it'll really begin eating away.

 

The NCPO might try to stay on indefinitely, and they might succeed for a while. However, the longer they stay the more precarious their position becomes and the more likely they do damage to themselves. I am assuming that sanity will break out and they will step aside, but...

 

Who knows?

[Eric Loh]

16 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

However, I don't think they will succeed for a number of reasons.

There is a power much more powerful than the military. They too do not want the military to over exert their dominance and they are also hurt by the economy. I am sure they feel the pulse of the people and fear the situation going bad that could affect them too. They would rather have a corrupt elected government than a corrupt D...ick. 

[MaxLee]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

For the key players, the next election is all about deciding whether to sell their souls.

 

You mean,..... the never-to-be-elections..... 

[sawadee1947]

thank you to explain Thai politics to me. Good job

[Eric Loh]

With the new constitution combining the upper and lower house in appointing the Prime Minister, the magical number is 375 seats. PTP alone will not be enough even if they can win some south constituencies. The 3 mid-size parties combined will also not be enough. The two major parties joining forces can. 

[Baerboxer]

"In the end, the difference is clear. A democratically elected government can be removed by vote and a non-democratically elected government cannot be. That trumps all discussion."

 

Unless you happen to be Mugabe, Hun Sen, the late Mr. Lee or seemingly his heirs, Maduro, countless African despots who continually change their country's constitutions to keep power one way or another, all those "elected leaders" in countries that are "peoples' democratic republics", etc etc etc.

 

Without a robust justice system that's fair free and impartial, a free press that's fair free impartial and investigative, and a sound constitution, elections per se guarantee nothing.

[Baerboxer]

4 hours ago, leeneeds said:

Hun sen giving advice to khun Prayut,

and that advice is taken on board, this region could have the two longest serving

Pm s,

 

Really. So Hun Sen has ditched his "eternal friend" for a new one? Not surprising given his previous turning attributes!

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

elections per se guarantee nothing.

Still better than coups. 

[Srikcir]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

It’s the modern Thai version of China’s classic “Romance of the Three Kingdoms”.

Does China have a version of Four Kingdoms?

Because one "kingdom" is missing from the analysis: Suthep Thaugsuban, former politician and former Member of Parliament for Surat Thani province, former secretary-general of the Democrat Party and former deputy prime minister under Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Not too long ago some politicians proposed a coalition of the NCPO, Democrats and Suthep's People's Democratic Reform Foundation (PDRF) to form the government. While the suggestion was I believe in the context of bypassing elections, such a coalition might succeed in an election.

9 hours ago, webfact said:

America sided with Russia to finish off the Germany-Japan alliance in World War II, then quickly turned against Russia in a decades-long Cold War during which Germany was Washington’s significant ally and economically powerful Japan was a pro-US bystander.

Five decades of understated (and perhaps misunderstood) world history in one sentence!

9 hours ago, webfact said:

But world history shows us that anything is indeed possible.

Then let's mention Thailand's alliance with Japan in WW2 or its alliance with the US to fight Communist insurgents seeking to establish a dictatorship in Thailand. Writer needs to avoid international historical references.