Sudarat and Prayut emerge as most likely post-election leaders

[webfact]

Sudarat and Prayut emerge as most likely post-election leaders

By SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON 
THE NATION

 

 

KHUNYING SUDARAT Keyuraphan, a veteran politician from the previously ruling Pheu Thai Party who is tipped to lead the party to fight the next general election, has emerged as a candidate to become the next prime minister.

 

Among the existing senior politicians, she has been viewed as the strongest competitor to incumbent Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who according to many political observers is a leading candidate to become the next government head – although he is prohibited by law to contest the election.

 

Some expect Prayut to become a non-elected prime minister after the election, with support from the 250 junta-appointed senators and smaller political parties that are pro-junta. The 2016 Constitution allows a non-elected prime minister in the first five years after its promulgation.

 

For many political observers, Prayut’s recent moves have indicated his political ambition. These included his admission that he is a politician and his unusually frequent visits to different rural areas. 

 

Sudarat, meanwhile, has won the blessing of Pheu Thai’s “big boss”, fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, for her to lead the party into the election. 

In her latest move, Sudarat appealed for other political parties to join Pheu Thai in its opposition to an “outsider” prime minister, which she said

would undermine the political system.

 

Sudarat said Prayut had a good chance to become that “outsider” prime minister thanks to support from the 250 junta-appointed senators and the many political heavyweights Prayut has met recently.

 

This was the first time that Sudarat has clearly campaigned against Prayut.

 

It came shortly after a group of Pheu Thai politicians from the Northeast declared their “lifelong loyalty” to the party – a development that came amid speculation that new, pro-Prayut political parties are wooing election candidates from established parties such as Pheu Thai.

 

Pheu Thai will need a landslide victory in the next election, tentatively scheduled for November, or a House of Representatives majority if it wants to prevent an outsider PM. 

 

After the election, only two camps seem likely to contest to form the next government – Pheu Thai and the pro-Prayut alliance. While Pheu Thai has no clear allies, the other camp seems to have gained support from many political groups.

 

That was why Pheu Thai tried to find allies by asking other political parties to back its campaign against an “outsider” becoming prime minister.

 

Pheu Thai’s selling point is to declare itself as a champion of democracy that is opposing a non-democratic way of selecting the government head.

 

The other major political party, Democrat, has only a small chance of contesting for premiership, as it is unlikely to win the most House seats. The Democrats have often stood opposite Pheu Thai and the possibility of the two parties joining forces after the election has been ruled out by many senior Democrats. 

 

It is more likely that the Democrats would join the pro-Prayut camp, as they have never made it clear the party is against an outsider prime minister.

 

Some political observers say if it fails to win a commanding House majority, Pheu Thai may try to woo the Democrats to form a two-party coalition government by offering their long-time rivals the prime minister’s seat.

 

However, after the next election, the contest for the PM’s seat will be more likely between Prayut and Sudarat.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30336807

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-22

[wakeupplease]

Next thing we will hear is she has been disqualified for some crime little p makes up just wait and see

[tracker1]

Just about sews it up who will be the PM prior to any election ! as if the people didn't know

[Chris Lawrence]

She is a heavyweight in the upcoming election. 

[cornishcarlos]

42 minutes ago, Chris Lawrence said:

She is a heavyweight in the upcoming election. 

 

She better keep eating, cause that election is a long way off :)

[Samui Bodoh]

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.

 

The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...

 

I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?

 

Cheers

 

Edited January 21, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[ChrisY1]

47 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.

 

The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...

 

I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?

 

Cheer

Pretty sure he's working on the north east......looking for support and using big carrots!

[yellowboat]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Sudarat said Prayut had a good chance to become that “outsider” prime minister thanks to support from the 250 junta-appointed senators and the many political heavyweights Prayut has met recently.

So much for the will of the people.  Upside is if she can pull off winning enough votes, it is yet another humiliation to the iron fist.  Wonder if there could be a referendum one day to vote out those 250 army shills. 

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Some political observers say if it fails to win a commanding House majority, Pheu Thai may try to woo the Democrats to form a two-party coalition government by offering their long-time rivals the prime minister’s seat.

Look at who is taking the high road.  Also looks like reconciliation against a common political enemy and the enemy of participatory government.  

 

This actually might be fascinating. 

[JAG]

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.
 
The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...
 
I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?
 
Cheers
 

Frankly, up here in the frozen north (Chiang Rai) it is difficult to tell. Best Beloved would vote for Winnie the Pooh because he wears a red shirt, and there are many like her. Judging by the reaction in public places when his Friday Night TV show is aired, well it would be charitable to say that they don't want to hear from him. A couple of my colleagues, with whom I am close enough friends to occasionally comment on (rather than discuss) politics have moved from "wait and see" to expressions of concern about the damage he is doing.
As for accepting him, and possible repression, many, virtually all remember his part in the army killing large numbers of civilian protesters in Bangkok. That reverbrates still, and perhaps explains the degree of truculent acceptance.

I've long thought, and often said, that there will be a catalyst, which will suddenly cause a strong reaction. Maybe such a manipulated outcome to a gerrymandered election could be it?

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[RichardColeman]

Watchgate will be nothing compared to what is coming up for this lady if she gets too popular.

[yellowboat]

6 minutes ago, JAG said:

A couple of my colleagues, with whom I am close enough friends to occasionally comment on (rather than discuss) politics have moved from "wait and see" to expressions of concern about the damage he is doing.

Have heard the same from customers and vendors in Chiang Mai.  The once staunch supporters are no longer enthused.  And they are the ones that bring it up.  People at the top still sing the praises of the general, but it comes across as a defensive reaction. 

[Bob12345]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The 2016 Constitution allows a non-elected prime minister in the first five years after its promulgation

Thats convenient.

 

Great constitution by the way with a horizon of 5 years. Most constitutions are written with at least decades or decennia  in mind, but i guess there will be a coup and a new constitution soon again anyways.

[greenchair]

There will not be an election this year. 

It's as simple as that. 

[AGareth2]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Some expect Prayut to become a non-elected prime minister after the election,

an imposed PM

[Enoon]

42 minutes ago, JAG said:

Maybe such a manipulated outcome to a gerrymandered election could be it?

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

 

Or the inevitable reaction, by the Army, to the result of an election in which their gerrymandering failed.

 

It would happen .......sooner or later.

 

Everything they do (and they have the means and the will to do "everything") is to one end.

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Enoon

[mick220675]

In our area  (south buriram) Prayut did have some support even among the red shirts. But now he and his government are blamed for everything.

 

The locals hold him responsible for the low price of rice, sugar and rubber, and the escalating debt they are in.

 

Unfortunately they still dream of the day Mr T returns with the red team and saves them. There TRT t-shirts are on there last legs, something needs to be done fast.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

Frankly, up here in the frozen north (Chiang Rai) it is difficult to tell. Best Beloved would vote for Winnie the Pooh because he wears a red shirt, and there are many like her. Judging by the reaction in public places when his Friday Night TV show is aired, well it would be charitable to say that they don't want to hear from him. A couple of my colleagues, with whom I am close enough friends to occasionally comment on (rather than discuss) politics have moved from "wait and see" to expressions of concern about the damage he is doing.
As for accepting him, and possible repression, many, virtually all remember his part in the army killing large numbers of civilian protesters in Bangkok. That reverbrates still, and perhaps explains the degree of truculent acceptance.

I've long thought, and often said, that there will be a catalyst, which will suddenly cause a strong reaction. Maybe such a manipulated outcome to a gerrymandered election could be it?

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

'Great minds think alike... and fools seldom differ'. Hmm... which are we?

 

I also worry about a sudden catalyst causing huge damage here; all of us who have spent time in country have seen Thais go from 0 to 60 in one and a half seconds (anger-wise), and know that it can happen on a larger scale.

 

I have my doubts that the 'Average Somchai' on the street understands the new electoral system, and when he sees the end result, I doubt that he is going to be happy.

 

I would add one more comment to those who believe that the army is 100% in support of the current leadership; it isn't. Traditionally, the greatest fear of a coup government has been another coup government. To assume full military backing of Prayut is to misread Thai history.

 

 

[mark01]

Let's face it, when the "election" finally happens, the little guy will be elected/unelected Prime Minister for at least the next 5 years.

 

Unless someone or some people do something about it!

[Eric Loh]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The Democrats have often stood opposite Pheu Thai and the possibility of the two parties joining forces after the election has been ruled out by many senior Democrats. 

Chuan taking over the helm may change the equation. Any which way, I don't see Ahbisit holding the leadership much longer. He is a total liability in any election. Probably if a coalition is struck, both parties will share the premiership in succession starting probably with Chuan and relinquishing to Sudarat mid-term. 

[saminoz]

2 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

Pretty sure he's working on the north east......looking for support and using big carrots!

if the big carrots don't work, he has many, many more big sticks!

 

[DM07]

 

What is this "election" you are talking of?

[HappyinNE]

If you want to learn how to swear in Thai just be around the TV on Friday night.  The thing is turned off for the only time of the week.  In the NE the General is not liked at all.

[monkfish]

Na he wouldn't be able to cope as PM in a democracy without Section 44, Political ban and Absolute control.

[thaiguzzi]

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.

 

The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...

 

I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?

 

Cheers

 

At the moment, no one is willing to go toe to toe. Everyone is wary of the Men In Green's extra-judicial power, inc the BIB. But yeah, everyone is just waiting for that special moment that sets it all off.

 

3 hours ago, JAG said:

Frankly, up here in the frozen north (Chiang Rai) it is difficult to tell. Best Beloved would vote for Winnie the Pooh because he wears a red shirt, and there are many like her. Judging by the reaction in public places when his Friday Night TV show is aired, well it would be charitable to say that they don't want to hear from him. A couple of my colleagues, with whom I am close enough friends to occasionally comment on (rather than discuss) politics have moved from "wait and see" to expressions of concern about the damage he is doing.
As for accepting him, and possible repression, many, virtually all remember his part in the army killing large numbers of civilian protesters in Bangkok. That reverbrates still, and perhaps explains the degree of truculent acceptance.

I've long thought, and often said, that there will be a catalyst, which will suddenly cause a strong reaction. Maybe such a manipulated outcome to a gerrymandered election could be it?

Sent from my KENNY using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

+1. Exactly the same here in (very very) Red Udon.

[thaiguzzi]

54 minutes ago, HappyinNE said:

If you want to learn how to swear in Thai just be around the TV on Friday night.  The thing is turned off for the only time of the week.  In the NE the General is not liked at all.

Very true! Good one!

Around here they don't turn it off, but, as you say, there is a lot of profanity, voices are raised and shoes and feet shown at the screen.

I've said it before, it's reached the stage where he is as disliked as Suthep. And round here that is really saying something.

[connda]

The phrase, "stacked deck" comes to mind. 

[chainarong]

Its all very well contesting the PM job and Sudarat should be congratulated for this move, however  the main problem is  just how much support for the business of government will Sudarat have , blocking and undermining the government if the Junta doesn't get its way are some of the junta's selfish options plus that old chestnut another Coup, the whole shebang is undemocratic with the appointment of 250 by their peers, having an opponent will place Prayut on notice something he didn't count on otherwise he would have made it mandatory for the PM to be from the military under section 44 

[yellowboat]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Chuan taking over the helm may change the equation. Any which way, I don't see Ahbisit holding the leadership much longer. He is a total liability in any election. Probably if a coalition is struck, both parties will share the premiership in succession starting probably with Chuan and relinquishing to Sudarat mid-term. 

Interesting idea of share of power, but seems like a political band aid, but it might work.  And the good general and his junta get to take credit for reconciliation. 

[robblok]

3 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Thats convenient.

 

Great constitution by the way with a horizon of 5 years. Most constitutions are written with at least decades or decennia  in mind, but i guess there will be a coup and a new constitution soon again anyways.

Great that its just for the first 5 years.. after that no longer possible. 

[Eric Loh]

7 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

Interesting idea of share of power, but seems like a political band aid, but it might work.  And the good general and his junta get to take credit for reconciliation. 

In a way, you are correct. If the coalition happened, give him credit for blurring the red and yellow division against a common enemy. What he did well was galvanizing the various oppositions to hate the military and see through their incompetency in running the country.