5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.

 

The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...

 

I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?

 

Cheers

 

 

Just to point out to you that there is a lot more of Thailand in the central, east, south and west than simply up country.

 

As far as I am aware, living in rural Khampaeng Phet not many people really care who the new PM and party will be because, as usual, they will be screwed anyway.

 

Rural voters are needed for 2 or 3 months before an election, bribes are given out or not depending on who you believe. They cast their vote and are mostly ignored until the next election comes along. Then, rinse and repeat.

 

To return to Suderat and Prayuth IMHO Suderat will win the elections with whatever the PTP party might be called then but getting an overall majority may be a bit harder. Suderat is a much stronger person than Yingluck and Thaksin will have his hands full if he tries to control her like he did Yingluck.

 

As for Abhisit and the Democrats IMHO they are so far out of touch they probably couldn't win if they were the only party in the election.

 

Abhisit, while a nice guy, is a liability to the Democrats and has been since 2010 and the Democrat party leadership is still stuck in the last dinosaur age.

Edited January 22, 20188 yr by billd766
added extra text

1 hour ago, robblok said:

Great that its just for the first 5 years.. after that no longer possible. 

can always have another coup and rewrite the rules

11 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

can always have another coup and rewrite the rules

Only if the politicians are stupid enough to give people reason to get to the streets. For the PTP that would mean trying an other Thaksin amnesty.  If there are no people on the streets the army can't claim they are needed and they won't have the support they need. 

14 minutes ago, robblok said:

Only if the politicians are stupid enough to give people reason to get to the streets. For the PTP that would mean trying an other Thaksin amnesty.  If there are no people on the streets the army can't claim they are needed and they won't have the support they need. 

the people can be manipulated

another suthep

3 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

the people can be manipulated

another suthep

Only if given enough reason like trying to get Thaksin back.. that is what brought the people on the street.. so maybe if the PTP was not as arrogant and listened a bit to the other side too then they could stay in power for sure. Without people on the streets no coup. You can't manipulate people without anger being there already. 

6 minutes ago, robblok said:

Only if given enough reason like trying to get Thaksin back.. that is what brought the people on the street.. so maybe if the PTP was not as arrogant and listened a bit to the other side too then they could stay in power for sure. Without people on the streets no coup. You can't manipulate people without anger being there already. 

I am gladdened that you have so much faith in the political and social system of Thailand

9 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

I am gladdened that you have so much faith in the political and social system of Thailand

I have faith in the fact that you can't get a coup without people on the street, that is the excuse they always use. Now if the politicians were a little less arrogant and trying to force everything though without listening one bit to the other side there would be less conflict.. no conflict.. no people on the street.. no coup. 

1 minute ago, robblok said:

I have faith in the fact that you can't get a coup without people on the street, that is the excuse they always use. Now if the politicians were a little less arrogant and trying to force everything though without listening one bit to the other side there would be less conflict.. no conflict.. no people on the street.. no coup. 

Thai history might tell you otherwise

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

Only if given enough reason like trying to get Thaksin back.. that is what brought the people on the street.. so maybe if the PTP was not as arrogant and listened a bit to the other side too then they could stay in power for sure. Without people on the streets no coup. You can't manipulate people without anger being there already. 

 

PTP might well be less arrogant and listen more to start with. Then the greed and arrogance will kick in, the ignoring procedure and laws to suit themselves. The leopard won't change its spots and the owner will want to pursue his amnesty and replenish the coffers as soon as possible.

Sudarat may be a strong person and not a Shin family member, but seriously, how long can she resist the party owner? Some posters seem to think she really will be an actual leader more than in name. Reality?

 

Once that happens, there will be enough reaction and counter intimidation for the Army to step in again as the inept police will do nothing as usual.

 

And so it repeats.

 

The interesting idea is the coalition. Parties might unite against what the see as a common enemy but that's far from reconciliation. The cracks will likely appear very quickly - jealousy and greed, ego and face.

 

There has to be real reform, particularly the justice system and the agencies involved in enforcing the law. Nothing has really changed there so the environment and systems in which the politicians will operate is same same. The only thing that's changed is the rules the Junta wants to enforce around parliament and government. And they're just to protect its own position. 

 

 

 

40 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

the people can be manipulated

another suthep

 

One was more than enough.

20 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

PTP might well be less arrogant and listen more to start with. Then the greed and arrogance will kick in, the ignoring procedure and laws to suit themselves. The leopard won't change its spots and the owner will want to pursue his amnesty and replenish the coffers as soon as possible.

Sudarat may be a strong person and not a Shin family member, but seriously, how long can she resist the party owner? Some posters seem to think she really will be an actual leader more than in name. Reality?

 

Once that happens, there will be enough reaction and counter intimidation for the Army to step in again as the inept police will do nothing as usual.

 

And so it repeats.

 

The interesting idea is the coalition. Parties might unite against what the see as a common enemy but that's far from reconciliation. The cracks will likely appear very quickly - jealousy and greed, ego and face.

 

There has to be real reform, particularly the justice system and the agencies involved in enforcing the law. Nothing has really changed there so the environment and systems in which the politicians will operate is same same. The only thing that's changed is the rules the Junta wants to enforce around parliament and government. And they're just to protect its own position. 

 

 

 

Sadly i think you are right, i have not much hope the PTP will change they will bring another coup down on them if they go for an other amnesty of Thaksin. The PTP is not alone in its arrogance as you see the same things displayed by the junta. So who knows there might be a coup again if the PTP does not wise up.

23 minutes ago, AGareth2 said:

Thai history might tell you otherwise

Recent Thai history tells me this older Thai history tells an other story.

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Great that its just for the first 5 years.. after that no longer possible. 

Its either good for the country or bad, so it should be in the constitution forever or not at all.

 

A constitution should be the cornerstone of the country, not a piece of paper that does not look further than 5 years.

Amendments should always be possible, but why include things that will only last 5 years (rhetorical question)?

2 minutes ago, Bob12345 said:

Its either good for the country or bad, so it should be in the constitution forever or not at all.

 

A constitution should be the cornerstone of the country, not a piece of paper that does not look further than 5 years.

Amendments should always be possible, but why include things that will only last 5 years (rhetorical question)?

Tell that to the Americans with the right to bear arms.....  it might have been good in the past not now... so what your saying is not 100% correct. But I get your drift, i was just happy that this is only for 1 time would have preferred no outsider PM. 

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

PTP might well be less arrogant and listen more to start with. Then the greed and arrogance will kick in, the ignoring procedure and laws to suit themselves. The leopard won't change its spots and the owner will want to pursue his amnesty and replenish the coffers as soon as possible.

So what do you call what is happening now in the Government.

11 hours ago, webfact said:

although he is prohibited by law to contest the election.

He is not prohibited to use Article 44 to overrule laws and can contest the election so long as he has a reasonable explanation, ie., suspicions of fraud and corruption - it's a very low bar!

Prayut isn't required to present evidentiary cause to invoke Article 44 nor in the past has he done so. Case in point are the many elected provincial and federal officials who have been removed from their elected offices by Article 44 based solely on being on Prayut's list of suspicious persons.

Prayut has absolute power until an elected government has been installed. It does not stop prior to  election day!

 

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

PTP might well be less arrogant and listen more to start with. Then the greed and arrogance will kick in, the ignoring procedure and laws to suit themselves.

Political parties and political leaders come and go. The only constant that are associated greed and arrogance is the military and they have neither change their attitude nor their consistent intrusions in elected governments. They have consistently ignored procedures and laws and written laws that fit their agenda. The one institution that need to listen more is the military, not the political parties. You got it wrong. 

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Pheu Thai has no clear allies

Well at least not publicly as it would be unlawful currently to engage in such alliances (albeit several pro-military political leaders have already made such declarations of political alliances with no adverse legal consequences!).

But in the 2011 election the Pheu Thai Party formed a coalition of five constituent parties that “share the same ideology." http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/yingluck-forms-thai-coalition/article2159094.ece

Upon registration of all parties for the next election, it should be clear what parties may share the same ideology. I doubt the PTP will have lost many of its former allies but its political dominance over its allies may not be as great and more power-sharing may be necessary, ie., in cabinet positions.

Sudarat has appealed for support to oppose the election of an “outsider” leader....yet gets her own not of approval from a fugitive ex-leader. Who’s the outsider again? Thailand deserves the crap hand it keeps dealing itself.

12 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

While I truly hope that it doesn't happen, it is possible that Prayut ends up as PM through the use of the appointed Senators. And it would likely be done according to the 'constitution' that was 'adopted'.

 

The question that I have is would the Thai people accept that? Especially up country? I suspect a great deal of oppression would be needed, and the effects of that would be... er...  detrimental to Thailand's future...

 

I am not sure of the answer. Anyone who lives up there have a thought?

 

Cheers

 

If an organized group hopes to derail Prayut they better start rallying the Thai people now. He has carefully placed his people in positions to support him and has laid out all of the laws and rules needed to let him move into the post election position...elected or not.