Ive decided to sell my shares on Nasdaq.

[ghworker2010]

Over 2 yrs ago I purchased tech stocks on Nasdaq and it turned out to be an excellent investment. I've decided to sell all my shares now for the following reasons:

 

- We are in 9 yrs of a consecutive bull run market. Can we classify the current market as a 'Super Bull market'? Are we in one now or at the end of one?

- Equity valuations have now surpassed both the dotcom mania peak in 2000 and the 1929 mania peak. 

- To have a market 'Melt up' this year would cause many problems. (A melt up is a dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who dont want to miss out on the rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy). Melt ups often precede melt downs. Theres been 3 super bull mkts in the last 117 yrs and all 3 crashed. 

- The U.S Fed reserve is shrinking its balance sheet. Its reversing quantitive easing. Many people are referring to it as 'radical tightening'. The risk to the market is extreme volatility. 

- The Feds QE program will result in the U.S$ rising because interest rates will rise. My stocks from back home (Im not American)  are negatively effected by this exchange rate risk. 

 

Maybe Im wrong but if there is a big market correction this year then I suppose I will buy back in. Maybe the USD will be higher which is good if I buy using my nanny state currency from back home. 

 

If you follow the markets in the States what are your thoughts on all this?  I understand that if the Feds radical tightening causes a 10 to 20% crash or worse (this yr) then they will simply 'pause' their current experiment (or reverse it and start printing money again). Its a unique time bc the Fed is destroying up to 50bn USD a month in this shrinking of the balance sheet program. With the current high household and govt debt levels who knows what's in store this yr if rates start to rise globally. To sum up, my investments on nasdaq have exceeded its sense of intrinsic value and no longer has a margin of safety. Its time to take profits. 

 

cheers

[tonray]

The best advice someone ever gave me 25 years ago was "trade what you see is happening and not what you think will happen". 

 

 

[Pinot]

I've never been able to time the market. Yes, the market is frothy, but it is more likely to go to 30,000, then 15,000 (DOW).

 

I'll tell you what I do. I never buy individual stocks. I like CEFs that throw off dividends that pay in the area of 8% annually. I live off the dividends along with Social Security. Note that none of these are REITs or BDCs and leverage is usually low. In order of most invested in, ETY, SDIV, UTF, EMD, ISD, NHF, GAB, EOI, FOF, BDJ and AOD. 

 

If you wanted me to recommend one it would be FOF. It's a "fund of funds that sells at a discount and most of its holdings are already at a discount and returns close to 8%.

 

I don't care about appreciation. I just want the regular dividends. If they do appreciate, that's gravy. Last year I was up 24%. That won't happen every year, but the dividends will continue to flow. 

 

Oh, never take my advice. I don't want the responsibility.  

[12DrinkMore]

12 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

 I understand that if the Feds radical tightening causes a 10 to 20% crash or worse (this yr) then they will simply 'pause' their current experiment (or reverse it and start printing money again).

 

That would be a mere "correction", to be taken in one's stride......

 

Crashes are a bit bigger, although I don't think it is precisely defined.

 

The Fed is trying to be very predictable about its actions. They have announced the plan and I doubt if a "correction" will cause them to stop or reverse. It will take them six years to get back to where they were at 50 billion/month.

 

However the Fed is not the only player. The ECB, SNB and BoJ are all still engaged in injecting significant amounts of liquidity into the markets. There will be leakage from the actions of the ECB and BoJ into the US, and the SNB is directly active in the US market.

 

Also large companies such as Apple are planning to onshore profits due to the Trump tax reforms. That money has to end up somewhere.

[12DrinkMore]

14 minutes ago, Pinot said:

I've never been able to time the market. Yes, the market is frothy, but it is more likely to go to 30,000, then 15,000 (DOW).

 

I'll tell you what I do. I never buy individual stocks. I like CEFs that throw off dividends that pay in the area of 8% annually. I live off the dividends along with Social Security. Note that none of these are REITs or BDCs and leverage is usually low. In order of most invested in, ETY, SDIV, UTF, EMD, ISD, NHF, GAB, EOI, FOF, BDJ and AOD. 

 

If you wanted me to recommend one it would be FOF. It's a "fund of funds that sells at a discount and most of its holdings are already at a discount and returns close to 8%.

 

I don't care about appreciation. I just want the regular dividends. If they do appreciate, that's gravy. Last year I was up 24%. That won't happen every year, but the dividends will continue to flow. 

 

 

I believe all those provide a high rate because they are returning not just the dividends but also capital to maintain the high yield. This will work fine in a bull market such as we have been experiencing for the last decade, but in a downturn they will not be able to keep up the high yield without depleting the capital base. They are not without risk.

 

I have never understood why people buy the "Fund of Funds" vehicles. You end up paying management charges upon management charges.

[1FinickyOne]

If you keep doing research, you will find many opposing views to yours. It is a great idea to let the market correct and buy back in, except you would have to be incredibly lucky to know where both the top and bottom is... 

 

You might want to adjust the risk factors on your portfolio if you feel a need to tamper. 

[yogavnture]

good luck on timing the market.  u are gonna sell. when. give me a date. tomorrow?  when.  then lets look at your post over time. so first of all put your money where your mouth is. when are u selling i want a date. or is this post just talk

[yogavnture]

i dont think u have any intent on selling u just want free advise. 

[yogavnture]

any good advisor will tell you to stay in

[Altalake]

Buy when everyone else is selling, and sell when everyone else is buying.

[yogavnture]

markets have a brain of their own.  yes they go up and down. but its not like a computer program this could go up for another year. what about trump tax cuts.?  what about corp profits. if the companies are doing well and consumers are buying . then wont this market run continue?

[yogavnture]

what date are u selling. jan 25?

[tryasimight]

I have decided to get a haircut. 

 

Should I start my own thread? 

[DFPhuket]

I've built my wealth with low cost index funds and stayed away from individual stocks or financial advisors who take a 3-5% cut - and recommend financial products where they get the highest commissions. Best selling author Andrew Hallam has a new book out called, "Millionaire Expat: How To Build Wealth Living Overseas" that's worth a read. 

[steven100]

2 minutes ago, DFPhuket said:

I've built my wealth with low cost index funds and stayed away from individual stocks or financial advisors who take a 3-5% cut - and recommend financial products where they get the highest commissions. Best selling author Andrew Hallam has a new book out called, "Millionaire Expat: How To Build Wealth Living Overseas" that's worth a read. 

you are just the best.  the book is the best.  i guess you made millions. 

[xylophone]

18 minutes ago, DFPhuket said:

I've built my wealth with low cost index funds and stayed away from individual stocks or financial advisors who take a 3-5% cut - and recommend financial products where they get the highest commissions. Best selling author Andrew Hallam has a new book out called, "Millionaire Expat: How To Build Wealth Living Overseas" that's worth a read. 

Good advice for young folk starting out.........invest regular contributions into index tracker funds, stay the course (time in the market, not timing) and don't worry about the peaks and troughs as they can work in your favour.

[bubba45]

Why sell all?  If you're nervous take some profits but stay in with the stocks that are solid.  There's no way to time the market, and you'll lose out on gains by trying to do so.  Unless you really need the money, just ride the downturn when it eventually comes.  Look at where the market is now since '08.  And all the experts said the market would tank if Trump got elected.  Take some, if you must, leave the rest in or redistribute into other stocks or funds.

[watcharacters]

 

 

 

 

 

The Hunt brothers, Nelson, Lamar, and William could probably offer advice on trying to time or corner the market.

 

 

 

Edit to add:

 

I think it was Bunker who said before Congress if a person knows how much assets he has,   that person must not have much.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by watcharacters

[davidst01]

3 hours ago, 12DrinkMore said:

 

That would be a mere "correction", to be taken in one's stride......

 

Crashes are a bit bigger, although I don't think it is precisely defined.

 

The Fed is trying to be very predictable about its actions. They have announced the plan and I doubt if a "correction" will cause them to stop or reverse. It will take them six years to get back to where they were at 50 billion/month.

 

However the Fed is not the only player. The ECB, SNB and BoJ are all still engaged in injecting significant amounts of liquidity into the markets. There will be leakage from the actions of the ECB and BoJ into the US, and the SNB is directly active in the US market.

 

Also large companies such as Apple are planning to onshore profits due to the Trump tax reforms. That money has to end up somewhere.

''However the Fed is not the only player. The ECB, SNB and BoJ are all still engaged in injecting significant amounts of liquidity into the markets. There will be leakage from the actions of the ECB and BoJ into the US, and the SNB is directly active in the US market.''

 

I want to understand more about your opinion there. Are you saying that you dont think there will be a crash or correction because the other central banks are not doing the same as the FED? 

 

It is certainly  a big issue if the other central banks in Europe and Japan do reverse the QE. This would cause the equity markets to be less attractive for sure. 

[davidst01]

2 hours ago, yogavnture said:

good luck on timing the market.  u are gonna sell. when. give me a date. tomorrow?  when.  then lets look at your post over time. so first of all put your money where your mouth is. when are u selling i want a date. or is this post just talk

strange comment. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by davidst01

[ghworker2010]

2 hours ago, yogavnture said:

good luck on timing the market.  u are gonna sell. when. give me a date. tomorrow?  when.  then lets look at your post over time. so first of all put your money where your mouth is. when are u selling i want a date. or is this post just talk

Last night I sold at 9.31am New York time (late last night thai time). Why are you being anal about this? Whats the point. 

 

Ive sold and my brokerage has issued me with a contract note. What is there not to believe about my thread. 

 

I dont have a crystal ball but I have doubled my money on these tech stocks. The wife and I have plans to set up a business this year. Life rolls on.

[ghworker2010]

2 hours ago, tryasimight said:

I have decided to get a haircut. 

 

Should I start my own thread? 

Your comparing a 200 baht haircut to a potential stock market crash imploding billions of USD. Whats your point?

[12DrinkMore]

4 minutes ago, davidst01 said:

''However the Fed is not the only player. The ECB, SNB and BoJ are all still engaged in injecting significant amounts of liquidity into the markets. There will be leakage from the actions of the ECB and BoJ into the US, and the SNB is directly active in the US market.''

 

I want to understand more about your opinion there. Are you saying that you dont think there will be a crash or correction because the other central banks are not doing the same as the FED? 

 

It is certainly  a big issue if the other central banks in Europe and Japan do reverse the QE. This would cause the equity markets to be less attractive for sure. 

 

I am sure there will be a correction at some point. The valuations are remarkably high on an historical basis. My gut feeling is that the herd will push the DOW towards 30,000 as they like these "significant" numbers, and take a breather. But who knows?

 

I was pointing out that it is not the Fed alone that currently affects the US markets. 

 

 

[hugh2121]

2 hours ago, DFPhuket said:

I've built my wealth with low cost index funds and stayed away from individual stocks or financial advisors who take a 3-5% cut - and recommend financial products where they get the highest commissions. Best selling author Andrew Hallam has a new book out called, "Millionaire Expat: How To Build Wealth Living Overseas" that's worth a read. 

Yes, index funds are low cost. But don't you think you get what you pay for, given a little research of your own? There are some great fund managers out there who beat the indices on a regular basis.

[simoh1490]

If the OP is looking for confirmation of an idea, I share his angst, markets are frothy to say the least and the idea of going into cash has crossed my mind several times in recent weeks. And volatility is picking up, two days my fund holdings were up by a record amount in a single day (since I've been holding them), close of play yesterday they were down by a record amount! What I've done is to dump some of my fixed bonds funds and left that money in cash, now up to 16% overall. 

[kokesaat]

I've been a mutual fund investor since the mid-80's.  I stuck with the advice of people like Peter Lynch and fastened my seat belt in 1987, 2000, 2001, 2008.  But a few weeks ago, I started to think, 'if I walked into a casino with $xxxx.......and found myself with $xxxxxxxx", would I walk out or keep betting?' 

Because I'm not a betting man, I'd walk out.  

So I sold off about 70% of my mutual fund holding, keeping another 30% split between a variety of equity funds and bond funds.

I'll consider myself a winner even if the market keeps going up.  Now, about the only thing I have to worry about is finding a mattress large enough to act as a safety deposit box.

 

[tonray]

2 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

Your comparing a 200 baht haircut to a potential stock market crash imploding billions of USD. Whats your point?

Why use those high commission hair joints when Easy-Cuts can do it for $120 baht.. Ha ha

[ExpatOilWorker]

I am surprised nobody have mentioned corporate bonds.

You can get 5-7% tax free without much risk.

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

I am surprised nobody have mentioned corporate bonds.

You can get 5-7% tax free without much risk.

Fixed rate or variable? Fixed rate bonds are likely to take a serious bath any time soon.

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Fixed rate or variable? Fixed rate bonds are likely to take a serious bath any time soon.

Secured bonds with fixed coupon rate. None of that unsecured subordination perpetual stuff.