1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

So the CBI, PWC, E&W Item Club, OBR, IMF, World Bank and all the other highly regarded bodies, they're all owned by the international banks that own UK debt, is that what you want us to believe? Really! No, I mean really really!

 

Why, yes, the CBI, World Bank and IMF are inextricably linked to the bodies that own the UK's debt. And the other organisations base a large part of their work on the information that such bodies provide to them.

6 minutes ago, Grouse said:

No bright people think Brexit is a good move. Why is that?

We could be worse off not better off. If one takes a risk, the upside needs to be substantial to make the downside risk worthwhile. This gamble is not worth the risk

Of course it is!  Apart from the possible impact on the economy short-term, the added hurdles in dealing with our closest trading partners, a reduction in travel freedom and employment opportunities for our young people, a reduction in international co-operation, I really don't see any significant down-side.  We'll still play in European football competitions, 6 Nations will still go ahead, what's the problem?

 

And think of the upside! Taking back control.  No more faceless bureaucrats, except for British ones in Whitehall (and Swansea and Gateshead and Liverpool and Glasgow).  I'm sure the guys on here will come up with loads more advantages as well.  

 

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Why, yes, the CBI, World Bank and IMF are inextricably linked to the bodies that own the UK's debt. And the other organisations base a large part of their work on the information that such bodies provide to them.

Like pension funds?  Perhaps it would be better just to save for your retirement in a shoebox under the bed.  Or trust your employer to provide your pension?  Or just provide a pension out of the current account through taxation, and not bother saving for it at all? Throw ourselves on the mercy of future generations.

39 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

There is an economics picture that presents itself today and that is widely understood because it is the status quo.

 

There is then a series of economic forecasts which exist that attempt to estimate the impact of Brexit and extrapolate the status quo, into the future, these are models produced by a long list of government, private, academic and international bodies, separately and in some cases jointly. 

 

Those two things above are what I and most economists base their views of the economic future of the UK on, as and when things change that model may also change and perhaps a different picture will emerge. Right now there is no other picture, regardless of this being Brexit or anything else. If you have an economics model showing a more positive future scenario, please post a link to it so that we may all see it.

 

It is impossible to predict what the post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 years or 5 years, or whenever.

 

What you are describing are educated guesses based on worst case scenarios. 

3 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

Of course it is!  Apart from the possible impact on the economy short-term, the added hurdles in dealing with our closest trading partners, a reduction in travel freedom and employment opportunities for our young people, a reduction in international co-operation, I really don't see any significant down-side.  We'll still play in European football competitions, 6 Nations will still go ahead, what's the problem?

 

And think of the upside! Taking back control.  No more faceless bureaucrats, except for British ones in Whitehall (and Swansea and Gateshead and Liverpool and Glasgow).  I'm sure the guys on here will come up with loads more advantages as well.  

 

Not sure your irony will be universally understood! ?

12 minutes ago, Grouse said:

So where is the official impact assessment. There isn't one. Why? It would either be untruthful or would demonstrate that a majority of the UK population are turnips.

Because it's impossible to accurately predict the impact of Brexit. There are too many variables.

 

I would have expected someone of your vastly superior (almost unearthly) intelligence to know this.

3 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Because it's impossible to accurately predict the impact of Brexit. There are too many variables.

 

I would have expected someone of your vastly superior (almost unearthly) intelligence to know this.

http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/14/professor-stephen-hawkings-unnerving-warning-brexit-ahead-death-aged-76-7385726/

5 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Because it's impossible to accurately predict the impact of Brexit. There are too many variables.

 

I would have expected someone of your vastly superior (almost unearthly) intelligence to know this.

That's why it's called an assessment 

Anyway, if it's an NP hard problem. It's not worth the risk.

 

I might take a 1m leap across a yawning chasm to get a 1,000 USD. But I wouldn't jump 2m to get 1 buck!

Looks like the UK will be paying the piper until 2064.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-13/britain-will-still-be-paying-for-brexit-in-2064-forecasters-say

6 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

50 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

There is an economics picture that presents itself today and that is widely understood because it is the status quo.

 

There is then a series of economic forecasts which exist that attempt to estimate the impact of Brexit and extrapolate the status quo, into the future, these are models produced by a long list of government, private, academic and international bodies, separately and in some cases jointly. 

 

Those two things above are what I and most economists base their views of the economic future of the UK on, as and when things change that model may also change and perhaps a different picture will emerge. Right now there is no other picture, regardless of this being Brexit or anything else. If you have an economics model showing a more positive future scenario, please post a link to it so that we may all see it.

 

It is impossible to predict what the post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 years or 5 years, or whenever.

 

What you are describing are educated guesses based on worst case scenarios. 

 

You would think that any sane person with an interest in this subject would, at some point, ask themself how all the 'experts' got their predictions of the immediate post-referendum scenario so wildly, utterly wrong. An immediate recession, with more than half-a-million losing their jobs, they predicted. Andy Haldane's explanation was that consumer spending remained buoyant. But this excuse has been proven wrong by the economy continuing with steady growth whilst consumer spending has slowed. The glaring answer, of course, is that they didn't really get it wrong. They just made it all up in order to scare people away from voting for brexit. Just as they are continuing to make up economic downturn scenarios in order to scare people into accepting what will effectively be a non-brexit. Politicial historians of future generations will have a field day with the reasons why.

55 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Not sure your irony will be universally understood! ?

Irony? The steely mills will be rolling again.  Motherwell will rise - O'Well! O'Well!

 

 

54 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Because it's impossible to accurately predict the impact of Brexit. There are too many variables.

 

I would have expected someone of your vastly superior (almost unearthly) intelligence to know this.

Are there any other things that are impossible to predict the outcome of that we should be doing as a nation?  Apart from tearing up forty-over years of partnership with our neighbours?

1 hour ago, StreetCowboy said:

Like pension funds?  Perhaps it would be better just to save for your retirement in a shoebox under the bed.  Or trust your employer to provide your pension?  Or just provide a pension out of the current account through taxation, and not bother saving for it at all? Throw ourselves on the mercy of future generations.

 

In view of the fact that more and more companies are robbing their company pension funds blind in order to pay out huge bonuses and redundancy pay-offs to senior bosses, putting your money under the bed becomes ever more appealing. Just read today about a £200m shortfall in the Toys R Us fund.

Just now, Khun Han said:

 

In view of the factThat's why  that more and more companies are robbing their company pension funds blind in order to pay out huge bonuses and redundancy pay-offs to senior bosses, putting your money under the bed becomes ever more appealing. Just read today about a £200m shortfall in the Toys R Us fund.

That's why people were encouraged to invest in private pension funds; so that their salary and their pension were not dependent on the solvency of the same company.  

 

The shortfall in the Toys R U/S fund may well be due to over-commitment to previous and current employees, lack of growth by the company, and poor prediction of growth in a low-inflation economy; again, the reason that modern pensions are "defined contribution" rather than "defined benefit"; the risk of investement performance is not unfairly placed on the last people to retire, who, having contributed through their working lives, discover that the pot is empty when its their turn.

 

 

8 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

That's why people were encouraged to invest in private pension funds; so that their salary and their pension were not dependent on the solvency of the same company.  

 

The shortfall in the Toys R U/S fund may well be due to over-commitment to previous and current employees, lack of growth by the company, and poor prediction of growth in a low-inflation economy; again, the reason that modern pensions are "defined contribution" rather than "defined benefit"; the risk of investement performance is not unfairly placed on the last people to retire, who, having contributed through their working lives, discover that the pot is empty when its their turn.

 

 

 

And anyone considering investing in private pension funds might as well keep their money under the bed.

23 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

The shortfall in the Toys R U/S fund may well be due to over-commitment to previous and current employees, lack of growth by the company, and poor prediction of growth in a low-inflation economy

Poor prediction of growth?  As in more 'experts' getting predictions wrong? Who would have thought...

21 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

And anyone considering investing in private pension funds might as well keep their money under the bed.

pmc ounce. Sound as a pound!

1 hour ago, StreetCowboy said:

Are there any other things that are impossible to predict the outcome of that we should be doing as a nation?  Apart from tearing up forty-over years of partnership with our neighbours?

Not that I can think of.  Breaking free from an organisation bent on creating a federal Europe ruled by a bunch of unreasonable and inflexible old men who we have no direct power to elect or de-select is the only one I think.

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

It is impossible to predict what the post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 years or 5 years, or whenever.

 

What you are describing are educated guesses based on worst case scenarios. 

No.  The worst case is war in Europe.  All the predictions are based on a reasonably favourable general political and economic climate.  I'm not sure how much our leaders are going out of their way to make sure this comes to pass, but some of their hangers-on are certainly being less than helpful.

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

Not that I can think of.  Breaking free from an organisation bent on creating a federal Europe ruled by a bunch of unreasonable and inflexible old men who we have no direct power to elect or de-select is the only one I think.

I'm not sure you're allowed to say "unreasonable and inflexible old men" on TV

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You would think that any sane person with an interest in this subject would, at some point, ask themself how all the 'experts' got their predictions of the immediate post-referendum scenario so wildly, utterly wrong. An immediate recession, with more than half-a-million losing their jobs, they predicted. Andy Haldane's explanation was that consumer spending remained buoyant. But this excuse has been proven wrong by the economy continuing with steady growth whilst consumer spending has slowed. The glaring answer, of course, is that they didn't really get it wrong. They just made it all up in order to scare people away from voting for brexit. Just as they are continuing to make up economic downturn scenarios in order to scare people into accepting what will effectively be a non-brexit. Politicial historians of future generations will have a field day with the reasons why.

'They' this, 'they' that.

8 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Why, yes, the CBI, World Bank and IMF are inextricably linked to the bodies that own the UK's debt. And the other organisations base a large part of their work on the information that such bodies provide to them.

That wasn't what I asked. What I asked was whether they were ALL OWNED by the UK banks and you come back with some half-cocked answer saying yes, three of them are linked and then you rummage around in the shallows trying desperately to find an association for the remainder. You're so desperate to show that all these entities are just really one big enemy and that they're all working in unison to thwart the will of the people that you've created these imaginary links and now you're publically announcing them, it's wonderful theatre - the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) and the World Bank are in cahoots, you heard it here first! Barking, absolutely barking!.

17 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

That wasn't what I asked. What I asked was whether they were ALL OWNED by the UK banks and you come back with some half-cocked answer saying yes, three of them are linked and then you rummage around in the shallows trying desperately to find an association for the remainder. You're so desperate to show that all these entities are just really one big enemy and that they're all working in unison to thwart the will of the people that you've created these imaginary links and now you're publically announcing them, it's wonderful theatre - the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) and the World Bank are in cahoots, you heard it here first! Barking, absolutely barking!.

 

I couldn't care less what you asked. Your attempts at debate get ever-more personal. You can continue with your inane attempts to ridicule, and I'll just continue to turn your posts back on you by presenting the realities.

8 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

It is impossible to predict what the post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 years or 5 years, or whenever.

 

What you are describing are educated guesses based on worst case scenarios. 

Agreed, it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy what a post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 or 5 years, but it is possible to forecast what it will look like at various points in time with a high degree of certainty. Look, let's not play word games, either you believe that it is possible and reasonable to model the future economy or you don't, if you don't then let's stop at this point and go our separate ways because we will never agree on anything.

 

But if you believe a future economy can be modelled with a reasonable degree of certainty and accuracy and you have some confidence in the abilities of economists from various groups to do that, you'll know that ALL the models are painting are a very very dangerous financial picture. And it's not just that all the models are painting a worst case scenario, it doesn't work like that, models are showing a likely or probable outcome, it's simply not in the best interests of the model or the modellers to do otherwise, as we have already seen.

1 minute ago, Khun Han said:

 

I couldn't care less what you asked. Your attempts at debate get ever-more puerile and personal. You can continue with your inane attempts to ridicule, and I'll just continue to turn your posts back on you by presenting the realities.

That's too funny, you couldn't care what question was asked, you're going to answer a different one. 

4 hours ago, SheungWan said:

'They' this, 'they' that.

He's referring to the Illuminati, please show more reverence.

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

Agreed, it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy what a post-Brexit UK economy will look like in 2 or 5 years, but it is possible to forecast what it will look like at various points in time with a high degree of certainty. Look, let's not play word games, either you believe that it is possible and reasonable to model the future economy or you don't, if you don't then let's stop at this point and go our separate ways because we will never agree on anything.

 

But if you believe a future economy can be modelled with a reasonable degree of certainty and accuracy and you have some confidence in the abilities of economists from various groups to do that, you'll know that ALL the models are painting are a very very dangerous financial picture. And it's not just that all the models are painting a worst case scenario, it doesn't work like that, models are showing a likely or probable outcome, it's simply not in the best interests of the model or the modellers to do otherwise, as we have already seen.

 

You need to do a bit of reading up on the history of economic modelling/profiling. But it will upset you. It's success rates are shockingly poor, and I'm not just referring to recent events.

6 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not that I can think of.  Breaking free from an organisation bent on creating a federal Europe ruled by a bunch of unreasonable and inflexible old men who we have no direct power to elect or de-select is the only one I think.

"Breaking free" of the land mass of Europe to the East with only the Atlantic ocean to our West, what could possibly go wrong! 

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

That's too funny, you couldn't care what question was asked, you're going to answer a different one. 

 

Wrong. I straighten your loaded questions out, then deconstruct your ill-thought-through opinions.