SET acknowledges foreign selloff but sees no cause for concern

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, CGW said:

That one sentence sums things up nicely - thank you.

Yet we have people on here praising Thailand for jumping on-board a sinking ship! 

Current world wide economic policies benefit rich people at the expense of the poor. Poor people do not run countries. Expect nothing to change worldwide.

[KiwiKiwi]

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Nothing about the current economic situation world wide is sustainable.

 

Indeed. Personally I've been repeatedly shocked at the behaviour of financial institutions for some years. I expect they've been like that for a long time, but I do think there's something badly wrong with how the traders are motivated and how they behave. Many, many more should have been put in prison after the 2008 crash, and yet it appears they're still there and still behaving badly. I can't see how that is sustainable at all. It seems to be that society cannot afford to have these people continuing to worship at the altar of greed.

[altcar bob]

400 baht a day average daily wage for a Thai,more like 200 baht upcountry,held together by the point of a gun,moved out of absolute poverty at the point of a ball point pen,sure things are rosy

[KiwiKiwi]

29 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Good points plus the fact that the less than 50B USD foreign reserves in 1997 couldn't deter speculators and were used up in less than a year to defend the Baht. Thailand is in a better position currently with foreign reserves at over 200 B and is a formidable war chest to deter speculators.  

 

Do you believe Thailand is in a good financial state at present? I hear conflicting opinions and I don't have the werewithall to create an opinion unaided.

[userabcd]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

assured investors that overall, the Thai stock market is still doing well on the back of institutional and small time investors

Ha, since late last year funds have performed poorly with value descending gradually and are mostly negative.

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, userabcd said:

Ha, since late last year funds have performed poorly with value descending gradually and are mostly negative.

SET funds go up and they go down, overall they are up on a year ago, looking at short-term performance is meaningless. I hold 300k in CG-LTF, I bought 200k at 56 and a further 100 k at 62, today they're at 60. But as the name implies it's a long-term fund hence I won't get excited until this time next year if they haven't moved upwards.

[KiwiKiwi]

12 minutes ago, userabcd said:

assured investors that overall, the Thai stock market is still doing well on the back of institutional and small time investors

 

This statement and the words used strongly suggest a lie, embellished by copious spin. It's hard sometimes to separate fact from fiction in Thailand, but surely, it can't all be BS? is every other country like this where you can't believe a single word if it comes from a source the newspapers use...?

 

 

[Eric Loh]

18 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

Do you believe Thailand is in a good financial state at present? I hear conflicting opinions and I don't have the werewithall to create an opinion unaided.

Having a high foreign reserves is necessary for export dependent countries like Thailand. It is necessary to meet short and long term payment obligations without imposing too much strain on its own internal economics. The high reserves are a good cushion to have to meet any shocks in the foreign exchange markets. 

 

I have some personal concerns and opinions of the financial state. The debt to GDP at 40% + may seem ok but when we don't have budget surplus to pay for debt, Thailand will have to continue to borrow and pay the interests. Thailand also has an external debt of about 135B and is vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuation like in 1997 although repeat of Tom Yam Koon crisis is unrealistic. 

 

I am also concern about the excessive infrastructure spending which are risks if they don't generate revenues and profits and become a burden and strain to the financial system. Ditto the excessive real estate boom currently. 

 

The decreasing FDI is another problem and so is the low wages. Thailand is also overly dependent on export and therefore not in control of its economy. The domestic economy is neglected. Economy is poorly balanced. 

 

Lastly the non transparent lavish increasing military spending and the wastefulness of dud purchases are excesses and has no economic benefits.

 

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Having a high foreign reserves is necessary for export dependent countries like Thailand. It is necessary to meet short and long term payment obligations without imposing too much strain on its own internal economics. The high reserves are a good cushion to have to meet any shocks in the foreign exchange markets. 

 

I have some personal concerns and opinions of the financial state. The debt to GDP at 40% + may seem ok but when we don't have budget surplus to pay for debt, Thailand will have to continue to borrow and pay the interests. Thailand also has an external debt of about 135B and is vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuation like in 1997 although repeat of Tom Yam Koon crisis is unrealistic. 

 

I am also concern about the excessive infrastructure spending which are risks if they don't generate revenues and profits and become a burden and strain to the financial system. Ditto the excessive real estate boom currently. 

 

The decreasing FDI is another problem and so is the low wages. Thailand is also overly dependent on export and therefore not in control of its economy. The domestic economy is neglected. Economy is poorly balanced. 

 

Lastly the non transparent lavish increasing military spending and the wastefulness of dud purchases are excesses and has no economic benefits.

 

 

High foreign currency reserves yes, trade surplus yes, low external debt yes. A conscious decision was made to operate a higher budget deficit than had been seen for several years and this was signalled well in advance, the logic being that spending on infrastructure could be part-financed in this way plus the existing budget deficit was extremely low by comparison to other countries. Financing government debt has been successful in years gone by through the issue of government bonds, every issue has been oversubscribed hence there is no shortage of buyers.

 

FDI - my jury is out on this, as said earlier I think exports and tourism alone will support current baht strength.

 

Military spending Eric, I suppose if we must! Thailand military spending remains under 2% and is also one of the lowest in the region, as we all know.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KiwiKiwi]

17 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Having a high foreign reserves is necessary for export dependent countries like Thailand. It is necessary to meet short and long term payment obligations without imposing too much strain on its own internal economics. The high reserves are a good cushion to have to meet any shocks in the foreign exchange markets. 

 

I have some personal concerns and opinions of the financial state. The debt to GDP at 40% + may seem ok but when we don't have budget surplus to pay for debt, Thailand will have to continue to borrow and pay the interests. Thailand also has an external debt of about 135B and is vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuation like in 1997 although repeat of Tom Yam Koon crisis is unrealistic. 

 

I am also concern about the excessive infrastructure spending which are risks if they don't generate revenues and profits and become a burden and strain to the financial system. Ditto the excessive real estate boom currently. 

 

The decreasing FDI is another problem and so is the low wages. Thailand is also overly dependent on export and therefore not in control of its economy. The domestic economy is neglected. Economy is poorly balanced. 

 

Lastly the non transparent lavish increasing military spending and the wastefulness of dud purchases are excesses and has no economic benefits.

 

 

 

 

Cheers, very helpful. Economics largely goes over my head unless and until explained. Not what I'm good at. I thought the foreign reserves had been largely depleted by this govt, or was that the current account surplus? Can't recall where they've got all the dosh for.

 

Is this government really well-placed to win an election (albeit a rigged election)? I know that opinions differ.

 

Appreciate the leg up.

[Peterw42]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If I were a betting man, I'd be betting in a collapse of the car industry. Australia no longer makes cars, with loss of 50,000 jobs, New Zealand stopped making them years ago, Britain sold all it's car companies. 

People have unsustainable levels of debt, so a new car is not going to be a priority. 

 

I could go on, but I'll leave it at that.

Yes Australia stopped making cars, but they havnt stopped buying them, and most of them come from Thailand. Its not the collapse of the car industry, it just moved to thailand and is thriving.

 The top 5 selling cars in Australia all come from Thailand, tax free thanks to the free trade agreement.

 

 

[simoh1490]

The one thing that is consistent with these debates about THB and the Thai economy is that they are all predictably similar. I've been involved in debates about THB and the Thai economy on TVF since 2006 and posters are saying the same things today they were saying twelve years ago: THB is overvalued and it's going to crash, they said it at 60, 55, again at 50 and at 45; the Baht is being manipulated by the elite...tiresome; exports can't last, it's just not sustainable; the tourist numbers are fudged, you can't believe anything that's said here; political turmoil will ruin the economy...yawn; the foriegn currency reserves have all been spent, they don't exist, and so on and so on.

 

It's little wonder people can't get a good picture of what the economy and the Baht are actually doing when there are so many barstool anecdotes and mis/disinformation being passed around and it's enduring too.

[timendres]

Likely that some of this adjustment is coming about due to investors lightening up in front of a coming major event - the promised election. Unknowns like this represent risk, and investors like to step clear of it.

[thaistocks]

Congratulations with the SET in the news on its new President today. But...here below is the official SET link where one can see & monitor the participating percentages, as shown by investor type. Let's note the continued drop-off by individual investors to now a dismal below 40% of the total, vs. often over 65 to 70% in years past.  Does the SET ask Why is this happening...is this not concerning?

https://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/investortype.do?language=en&country=US

[KiwiKiwi]

On 6/6/2018 at 10:42 AM, userabcd said:

Ha, since late last year funds have performed poorly with value descending gradually and are mostly negative.

 

"but assured investors that overall, the Thai stock market is still doing well on the back of institutional and small time investors"

 

This is intended to deceive, and it's transparent and not very skilled. I've seen much better from guys like this, his amateurism is evident, even Sansern wouldn't stoop to this and he;s about as transparent as you can get without actually being made of glass..

 

The key words here are "overall" and "still". Take those two words out and the lie is exposed. Spin.

 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[KiwiKiwi]

On 6/6/2018 at 10:08 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Current world wide economic policies benefit rich people at the expense of the poor. Poor people do not run countries. Expect nothing to change worldwide.

 

I hope you're wrong, and I think you are wrong. There is a great deal of work going on to bring down May, Trump and Erdowan. Maybe it will work and maybe it won't but if it does, it will usher in a sea-change. Prayuth isn't very important on the overall scale of things, but he also will be swept away by the tidal forces of change.

 

Of course, the risk is that muppets will succeed them, that's up to the electorates, but remember; a population will get the government(s) they deserve.

Edited June 8, 2018 by KiwiKiwi

[altcar bob]

Akin to the Thai rice farmers,they know they are in for a arse kicking,year in year out,but keep buying (seed) and growing the stuff.  There are fundamentals at play here,big ones,Trump for one. I do not think he gives a damn about imposing  tariffs ,but it sure is going to expose a lot of developing countries ,now is the time NOT to be buying shares for sure,may get rid of mine soon