Most Thais Think Economy Bad, Getting Worse

[Wilsonandson]

Thai economy and global economy. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. A trip to your local shopping mall is like a trip to a museum. People just looking at the exhibits.

[Credo]

I can't honestly dispute the figures, or the observations by many posters and the people they know, but I can say that I think the expectations of Thais have changed and that makes life more expensive.   

 

Some years ago, they were less concerned about medical care now they are (and they are getting older).   A lot of families are smaller and caring for ageing relatives is more of a burden.   I know many Thais who were quite satisfied to not own a house, or a condo, but now more want one.   The same with vehicles.   Where you once saw 10-15 people in the back of a pickup, now you see more people wanting private transport.

 

Thais have moved from the simple country life to a more sophisticated urban life and with it comes increased stress and costs.   Many of those costs are hidden.

 

[moonseeker]

If you drive along Pattaya's main roads and bigger Sois, there must be an average of every third shop closed and a huge number of what seem shut down, neglected shop houses. But there are ever more taxi and tour selling make shift shops on sidewalks. Food stands, coffee stands etc. How they all make a living is beyond me. It looks real messy. Thai business friends mostly complain badly. MS>

[simoh1490]

I think that when people are trying to assess the Thai economy they need to set aside most of what they see at street levels such as many of the low income businesses in places such as Pattaya. Unsold and boarded up shop houses, massage parlours that don't have customers, small one/two person food outlets, idle taxi drivers etc etc. - those things are just not representative nor a good indication of the state of the Thai economy overall.

[neeray]

16 hours ago, jayboy said:

You are talking rubbish and the one thing you claim to know for sure you do in fact not know.Inflation is only slightly higher at just over 1%, slightly more than the expected rate of about 0.85%.The information on which this is based is not manipulated by what you ignorantly call "goons".In fact Thailand has a longstanding history of producing reliable and excellent economic and financial data and is well served by able officials in the responsible ministries and the Bank of Thailand.Naturally in the basket of items used to track inflation some items will increase more than others.You mention the "tourist industry", a euphemism no doubt for bars and similar places frequented by sex tourists and resident "expats".If the girls and boys are hiking their prices it doesn't really matter and in any case is irrelevant to the national inflation position.

Interesting. I have many Thai friends, North, South, East, West and central. And they all say the same thing.

Example: high season is like low season, no tips anymore, people aren't spending like they used to. I haven't heard one say the economy is great.

[morrobay]

54 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I believe you are not making it up, it's a fact that people are moving out of farming because of competitive pricing and out of manufacturing because of automation, the workforce has shifted - where are those people going? They're starting small businesses in the tourist sector, restaurants, travel agencies, shops, massage etc and now the market is saturated with such places, just take  a walk around Pattaya and count how many you see, instead of one business getting 100 customers a day, 20 similar business are getting 5 a day. 

Farmers are moving out of farms because of competitive pricing. In other words a too strong overvalued baht adversely affecting exports. And now they are moving into saturated tourism related services that by the way are exports too. Now where are they going to go? 

[impulse]

Most people understandably confuse "the economy" with my personal finances, especially debt. 

 

Even if the economy is booming, personal debt can be pretty oppressive when wages don't keep up with inflation and expectations.  Especially when over 100% of the growth in GDP is going to a small minority of the population.

 

[neeray]

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Such pure and unadulterated silliness. Anyone who listens to those government figures anywhere in the world is suffering from a severe case of delusion. All you have to do is leave your house to see inflation all around you. Frankly, I would rather look at grocery prices, the cost of construction materials, food and staples, than the "basket of goods" nonsense these creeps tell us is supposed to represent our lives and our reality. This has nothing to do with your sex industry. Your boys and girls may be hiking their prices, but that has little to do with the lives of most of us. I barely drink, so the cost of a beer in a bar means little to me. I see inflation everywhere around me.

Spidermike007 usually speaks common sense which is exactly what he has done here.

 

"despite government reports it expanded at the fastest rate in five years": If the economy had expanded like said here, people would have more money to spend. But they don't ! Merchants are increasing prices to try and make up for the shortfall in business.

[simoh1490]

5 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Farmers are moving out of farms because of competitive pricing. In other words a too strong overvalued baht adversely affecting exports. And now they are moving into saturated tourism related services that by the way are exports too. Now where are they going to go? 

Competitive pricing is not about the Baht being too strong, the price of rice has fallen because of oversupply and competition from Vietnam and India - most rural farmers in Thailand grow rice. Also, attempts to diversify into other crops have not worked out well, rubber in particular.

 

Where do they go next? Who knows, probably absorbed into a range of existing industries. 

 

Things to consider though are that the population is ageing rapidly hence the available workforce is shrinking, attempts to document and control imported labour from neighbouring countries are probably aimed at making sure Thai's can get jobs if they want them.

 

 

 

[connda]

16 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Where you hear those complaints?  Some of the 1000 bars or massage shops in Pattaya?  "Slow, no customer"...

The customer base for bars and massage and those types of venues are predominately farang.

Thai hotelier and the TAT have essentially come out and said that farang are now persona non grata, are not really sought after,  and inconsequential to Thailand's tourist strategy and that the Chinese are now their preferred customer base. 
Farangs and Westerners support the bar, nightclub, massage industry and a sub-set of the guesthouse, hostel, condo, B&B, and service apartment industry.
The bar, nightclub, massage industry supports street vendors.

The regime is going out of it's way in targeting street vendors for extinction and eliminate the competition in favor of large restaurant chains and malls that accommodate Chinese group tours.

The regime is going out of it's way in targeting the guesthouse, hostel, condo, B&B, and service apartment looking for ways to shut them down and eliminate the competition in favor of large hotels and venues that accommodate Chinese group tours.
So these sets of businesses and services heavily dependent on farang and Westerners for it's livelihood are  being targeted and decimated.
The monies that used to flow through those business and it employees now fails to make it back to rural Thailand for the support of low-class and needy families.
So yeah, with the farang told that they are no longer wanted or needed, and the money supporting that segment of Thai society drying up and effecting families throughout the kingdom adversely, it's not difficult to see how the manta on the street is now, "Slow, no customer..." and from the villages that, "Economy bad".
It's pretty evident that the regimes slogan, "Happiness to the People" primarily means those in the upper segments of Thai society and the lower class be damn.

[impulse]

14 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Farmers are moving out of farms because of competitive pricing. In other words a too strong overvalued baht adversely affecting exports. And now they are moving into saturated tourism related services that by the way are exports too. Now where are they going to go? 

 

Is it the strong baht, or the fact that a few entities control the export market through licensing and other barriers, leaving the farmers as paupers at their mercy?  The export price doesn't really matter much to the farmers when they're required to sell to middlemen who make all the money.

 

[Bob12345]

15 hours ago, GarryP said:

The economy is supposedly doing well. It, however, seems to be linked to the export and tourism sectors and perhaps infrastructure. Market traders, noodle sellers, small shops, etc. particularly those located in the provinces and not tourist centers and farmers are not feeling any benefit from the improved economy. Some of that could be down to an unwillingness to change and adapt but certainly not all. Sales are down in many shops in small provincial towns because people do not have money to spend. Four or five years ago things were much better.   

The old economist's joke is that if you put your head in the oven and your feet in the freezer the temperature is nice "on average".

 

Some will be doing well, some will be doing worse than before. My estimate is that the ones who do well are the rich minority that own businesses and profit from all the chinese coming here. These people do not sit in a bar to complain to westerners.

 

The ones that are not doing well are the lower educated farmers, shop owners, and employees; especially the ones who depend on western tourists. And as a westerner we are most likely to come in contact with these people. We therefore get a biased perspective on how things are going.

 

And thats why official statistics normally trump whatever you hear on the street regarding economics.

[jayboy]

21 minutes ago, neeray said:

Interesting. I have many Thai friends, North, South, East, West and central. And they all say the same thing.

Example: high season is like low season, no tips anymore, people aren't spending like they used to. I haven't heard one say the economy is great.

And do you have a point to make or are you just content to repeat anecdotal gossip?

[neeray]

1 minute ago, jayboy said:

And do you have a point to make or are you just content to repeat anecdotal gossip?

I made my point. What's yours ?

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, connda said:

The customer base for bars and massage and those types of venues are predominately farang.

Thai hotelier and the TAT have essentially come out and said that farang are now persona non grata, are not really sought after,  and inconsequential to Thailand's tourist strategy and that the Chinese are now their preferred customer base. 
Farangs and Westerners support the bar, nightclub, massage industry and a sub-set of the guesthouse, hostel, condo, B&B, and service apartment industry.
The bar, nightclub, massage industry supports street vendors.

The regime is going out of it's way in targeting street vendors for extinction and eliminate the competition in favor of large restaurant chains and malls that accommodate Chinese group tours.

The regime is going out of it's way in targeting the guesthouse, hostel, condo, B&B, and service apartment looking for ways to shut them down and eliminate the competition in favor of large hotels and venues that accommodate Chinese group tours.
So these sets of businesses and services heavily dependent on farang and Westerners for it's livelihood are  being targeted and decimated.
The monies that used to flow through those business and it employees now fails to make it back to rural Thailand for the support of low-class and needy families.
So yeah, with the farang told that they are no longer wanted or needed, and the money supporting that segment of Thai society drying up and effecting families throughout the kingdom adversely, it's not difficult to see how the manta on the street is now, "Slow, no customer..." and from the villages that, "Economy bad".
It's pretty evident that the regimes slogan, "Happiness to the People" primarily means those in the upper segments of Thai society and the lower class be damn.

If the entire country looked like Pattaya in respect of businesses such as bars that serve farangs your theory might be viable. But Chiang Mai has hardly no bars, just a single short street with some tired underpopulated bars. So the idea that money isn't flowing upcountry because the farangs are no longer wanted, allegedly, doesn't hold water I'm afraid.

[jayboy]

6 minutes ago, neeray said:

Spidermike007 usually speaks common sense which is exactly what he has done here.

 

"despite government reports it expanded at the fastest rate in five years": If the economy had expanded like said here, people would have more money to spend. But they don't ! Merchants are increasing prices to try and make up for the shortfall in business.

No he talks nonsense.He has no understanding of economics and repeats half understood cliches.It's relatively easy to get clued up on the Thai economy but these people can't be bothered or lack the capacity to understand what they read.

[simoh1490]

5 minutes ago, Bob12345 said:

The old economist's joke is that if you put your head in the oven and your feet in the freezer the temperature is nice "on average".

 

Some will be doing well, some will be doing worse than before. My estimate is that the ones who do well are the rich minority that own businesses and profit from all the chinese coming here. These people do not sit in a bar to complain to westerners.

 

The ones that are not doing well are the lower educated farmers, shop owners, and employees; especially the ones who depend on western tourists. And as a westerner we are most likely to come in contact with these people. We therefore get a biased perspective on how things are going.

 

And thats why official statistics normally trump whatever you hear on the street regarding economics.

I knew it wouldn't be long before somebody introduced Trump into the conversation. 

 

More seriously, Pattaya is not a good place from which to assess the Thai economy, it's just not representative.

[mstevens]

I don't think I have ever heard a Thai say that the economy is good even when it was purring along.  They always seem to be complaining about the economy being bad!

[jayboy]

2 minutes ago, neeray said:

I made my point. What's yours ?

Are you six years old? Repeating half baked anecdotes is no substitute for proper comprehension.The Thai economy is doing well and the tourist industry particularly so.There are some structural issues as some members have correctly pointed out including the middle income trap and an aging population.But right now the economy is doing well.

[impulse]

4 minutes ago, mstevens said:

I don't think I have ever heard a Thai say that the economy is good even when it was purring along.  They always seem to be complaining about the economy being bad!

 

Probably because the vast majority are being left out of any economic growth.  Just because the GDP is up and the stock market is doing okay (and I'm not saying it is...) doesn't mean any benefit is accruing to the masses.  Most is being pocketed by the Elite.  And the little bit that is trickling down is more than offset by inflation.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by impulse

[neeray]

6 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Are you six years old? Repeating half baked anecdotes is no substitute for proper comprehension.The Thai economy is doing well and the tourist industry particularly so.There are some structural issues as some members have correctly pointed out including the middle income trap and an aging population.But right now the economy is doing well.

Calm down, have another beer. My "anecdotal comments" as you call them are direct grass roots comments from respectable Thais. This is a forum for comments, exchange and opinion. No need for you to be so insulting and opinionated. Did you take your meds last night?

[jayboy]

1 minute ago, neeray said:

Calm down, have another beer. My "anecdotal comments" as you call them are direct grass roots comments from respectable Thais. This is a forum for comments, exchange and opinion. No need for you to be so insulting and opinionated. Did you take your meds last night?

You labour under the illusion that one man's views are as good as another's.Clearly they are not.You persist with posting facile and misleading comments but take umbrage when your mistakes are pointed out.Repeating a few anecdotes does not amount to a considered position.You would be well advised to do a little research.

[neeray]

3 minutes ago, jayboy said:

You labour under the illusion that one man's views are as good as another's.Clearly they are not.You persist with posting facile and misleading comments but take umbrage when your mistakes are pointed out.Repeating a few anecdotes does not amount to a considered position.You would be well advised to do a little research.

Yeah, sure, okay, whatever. Any further nonsense posts from you will just be ignored. I really don't have the interest in sparring with your insulting BS.

[poanoi]

yep, pattaya is doomed, empty streets and abandoned bars everywhere,

barely a single motorist on the roads, i never thought it would come to

it that i miss some good ole fashion traffic jam for which pattaya is famous.

 

anyway, given the strong baht i would expect

less short time tourists, but its hard to really quantify

in pattaya where the streets are always empty.

thais them self would not see much in any direction

unless they have picked up on falang ware altogether,

in which case they will benefit from the strong baht

Edited June 7, 2018 by poanoi

[r136dg]

17 hours ago, Darcula said:

What's really needed to get the economy going here is a couple of submarines, a hi-speed track from Nakhon Nowhere to Samut Shitsaburi, some empty satellites, and a Singapore-style marina walk. Chai yo!

Don't forget, part of the stimulus must include getting durian into outer-space.

[simoh1490]

On a slightly more positive note....markets seem to think that the UK is now heading for a softer than soft Brexit and that sentiment is reflected in the GBP/THB exchange rate this morning, that's the Pound rising rather than the Baht falling. I mention this because the prospect of a strengthening Baht against a weakening Pound, which is where we were very recently was not good for many on fixed income, 

[BEVUP]

9 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I can see @spidermike007 point, Its often hard to believe the official inflation figures when you see groceries and things going up, I dont watch prices to much but even I notice some significant price rises for the once a week groceries at the supermarket or basic Thai meal at the local restaurant. Things dont go up by 2-3%, its often 20-30%.. I can find 6-8 things, that I know of, at 7/11, that have gone from say 20 baht to 30 baht.

Our standard weekly shop use to cost 2,000 baht, its now 2,500.

Yes never believe Gov figures

Like Simoh says, things don't just go up by small amounts (like being linked to somewhere near the inflation figure ) they do increase by 20 %

In researching the lads new school I thought I new the price, only to be told the Web site is a yr old & instead of 40,000 per term it is now 47,000 

So I would say the economy is doing well 

Let alone the jobs created from Junta's big spending 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, BEVUP said:

Yes never believe Gov figures

Like Simoh says, things don't just go up by small amounts (like being linked to somewhere near the inflation figure ) they do increase by 20 %

In researching the lads new school I thought I new the price, only to be told the Web site is a yr old & instead of 40,000 per term it is now 47,000 

So I would say the economy is doing well 

Let alone the jobs created from Junta's big spending 

That's not my quote, spider wrote that not me!

[BEVUP]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

That's not my quote, spider wrote that not me!

Ok sorry

[Lupatria]

Spidermike posted: "Most Thais have no education on economics..."

That raises the question, when and where did the big brass brothers, and buddies in their fan club educate in economics?

As long as the intentional poorly educated masses are deprived of their right to vote for qualified representatives from the people they can trust, a bunch of unusual wealthy soldiers and their families , who don't have to care about price hikes of 20 baht, will run the show.