Put your cards on the table, EU makes last Brexit call to Britain

[dick dasterdly]

 

39 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Have to agree that it's a bit odd that the eu negotiatiors have said pretty much nothing about the white paper.

 

I'm not convinced that May has been "slowly backing the EU into a corner" though.  Why do this rather than make it very clear from the start that the uk govt. isn't accepting the eu's 'negotiating agenda', but are more than happy to talk about a trade deal?  The brit. govt. (under May), has done the opposite - which makes me very cynical....

 

21 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

TM is a remainer, she has to try and appease remainers, what better way to do this than let the EU reject this latest White Bog Paper ?

 

From Politico

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trumop-europe-hour-has-come/

 

We have all seen and read the efforts the EU has made to do the exact opposite when it comes to the UK. An FTA is not on the table, why would that be ?

 

Quite simply, the EU is in protection mode and will do, or agree to nothing, in case the UK goes on and makes a success of Brexit. It will destroy their entire reason for being in existence. 

But May originally insisted on the 'red lines' - not something that would appease remainers.  Personally, I think this was an appeasement tactic and that she had every intention of back-tracking in the future.  And I think this has happened.

 

I agree that May's immediate acceptance of the eu's 'negotiating agenda' only appealed to the remainers - which makes the possible thought that she was intent on "slowly backing the EU into a corner" extremely unlikely - especially as she is a remainer.

[dick dasterdly]

25 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

The UK formally agreed with the negotiating agenda of the EU; first withdrawal agreement followed by trade talks.

I am sure the EU knows in what kind of precarious situation May is. If they apply too much pressure the crisis will only worsen and as it is the divisions within the UK are already reaching breaking point. The EU cannot accept the Chequers plan but there is no need to shoot it down immediately (the UK will take care of that themselves).

"The UK formally agreed with the negotiating agenda of the EU; first withdrawal agreement followed by trade talks."

 

I agree entirely.  But the question is why on earth May and the uk negotiators agreed to this in the first place???

[dick dasterdly]

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Trump inserting himself into Brexit is wonderful news for Remain.

 

 

Have to agree.

 

Obama coming out with 'The uk will be at the back of the queue when it comes to trade talks' more than likely pissed off more than a few voters as being nothing other than fear tactics - plus brits. aren't particularly interested in foreign leaders trying to clearly influence their votes.

 

Similarly, I've no doubt brit. voters will take trump's comment's with a pinch of salt - and be similarly annoyed at the US president trying to influence the electorate.

[tebee]

29 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

OK tebee

 

Time to burst some more of your myths.

 

Myth 1. Services

 

The US, who is not a member of the EU or the SM / CU

 

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union

 

So much for having to be a member of the SM / CU to trade in Services, the EU / Barnier.

 

Myth 2. Finance

 

The UK cannot be a € clearing house after Brexit, have to be a member of the EU, the EU / Barnier.

 

The EU / Barnier had better tell New York, who are the Worlds 2nd largest € Clearing House after London.

 

So are the EU / Barnier liars, clueless or just trying to keep Project Fear going ?

I'm sorry, your own figures make exactly the opposite point to what you intend them to do. Being outside the EU is not going to stop services trade, just make it harder because of non-tariff barriers - there are generally no tariffs on services trade.   

 

So the US (pop 325 million ) has $1 trillion annual  trade with the EU  - this is only roughly 50% more the amount (£560 mill) as the UK (pop 65 million) has - it's the single market that makes it much easier for us to trade and hence we do a lot more of it proportiantly to our size.

 

Everyone should remember services  trade is much more than just financial services - transport (people and goods) is the biggest component by far - every time you buy an airline ticket you contributing to services trade.

 

 

[tebee]

15 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"The UK formally agreed with the negotiating agenda of the EU; first withdrawal agreement followed by trade talks."

 

I agree entirely.  But the question is why on earth May and the uk negotiators agreed to this in the first place???

Total incompetence ?

[whatsupdoc]

3 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"The UK formally agreed with the negotiating agenda of the EU; first withdrawal agreement followed by trade talks."

 

I agree entirely.  But the question is why on earth May and the uk negotiators agreed to this in the first place???

Probably there was optimism that everything would be doable.

When the red lines were drawn on both sides and it dawned on everybody how difficult Brexit really is (Irish border etcetera) that was no longer the case.

I think the EU now sits back and waits what happens in the UK. The EU had 4 options for the UK; remain, Norway, Canada or no deal. The UK still wants some bespoke deal but cannot decide what exactly because it is utterly divided.

I think the EU are fed up with it by now. Such a divided country is not even that attractive anymore as EU member. The EU can wait and welcome companies that want to relocate from the UK to the EU with open arms.

 

The UK can always reapply for EU membership after they learned what a hard Brexit is.

[The Renegade]

2 minutes ago, tebee said:

I'm sorry, your own figures make exactly the opposite point to what you intend them to do.

Nothing to do with FIGURES or AMOUNTS tebee

 

46 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

So much for having to be a member of the SM / CU to trade in Services, the EU / Barnier.

 

47 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

The UK cannot be a € clearing house after Brexit, have to be a member of the EU, the EU / Barnier.

And all to do with

 

47 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

The EU / Barnier had better tell New York, who are the Worlds 2nd largest € Clearing House after London.

 

So are the EU / Barnier liars, clueless or just trying to keep Project Fear going ?

10 / 10 for missing the point of my comment.

[tomacht8]

The talks with Australia will be part of the EU's agenda for open and fair trade. They lined up to conclude negotiations with Japan last year and Mexico this spring, as well as the entry into force of the EU-Canada trade agreement last September. The future agreement with Australia will further expand the EU's engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. The negotiations with the Mercosur states Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay are also in the final phase.

The EU appears to be interested in trade agreements.
Wonder why that does not work with the UK.

Could it be that it is in the nature of Things, that bargaining takes 5-7 years to complete?
A Brexit with the crowbar does not work.
The more the clock ticks down, the more it reminds of a chicken pile running around headless.

Even for a hard Brexit the UK is not equipped at all. Then the UK would have to start immediately to train 5000 and more border and customs officials in an urgent procedure. 

It makes sense to agree on a transitional period in which all problems, questions, personnel and technology can be solved realistically.

 

[The Renegade]

26 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

But May originally insisted on the 'red lines' - not something that would appease remainers.  Personally, I think this was an appeasement tactic and that she had every intention of back-tracking in the future.  And I think this has happened.

Perhaps, but her 2 red lines are going to bring about her downfall if she is not hoping that the EU reject this latest proposal.

 

'' Brexit means Brexit ''

 

And

 

'' No deal is better than a bad deal ''

 

The latest White Bog Roll certainly means that there is NO Brexit and it also means it is possibly the worst possible outcome for the UK.

 

Hoping for EU rejection is the only possible reason that I can see for penning this piece of garbage.

[The Renegade]

3 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

The talks with Australia will be part of the EU's agenda for open and fair trade. They lined up to conclude negotiations with Japan last year and Mexico this spring, as well as the entry into force of the EU-Canada trade agreement last September.

Come back to us when the EU have actually struck a trade deal.

 

CETA has not been ratified yet and Italy look as if they are going to veto it

 

Quote

The new agriculture minister, Gian Marco Centinaio, has announced that Rome will not sign up to the new trade deal with Canada, CETA, because he argues it does not protect enough Italian products. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-plans-to-blow-up-brussels-eu-5star-movement-league-coalition/

[tebee]

35 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Nothing to do with FIGURES or AMOUNTS tebee

 

 

And all to do with

 

10 / 10 for missing the point of my comment.

I'm not missing your point, just pointing out that you make a different one to what you intended.

 

Euro clearing - anyone can participate in it, but those outside the EU are held to a higher standard of liquidity than those in the EU. This means that it's less profitable to trade there - it's a typical non-tariff barrier.

 

So post brexit the advantage that London has   disappears, some may stay, some will move back to NY, other go to somewhere in the EU.

 

It's just market forces at work.  

 

 

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, tebee said:

I'm not missing your point, just pointing out that you make a different one to what you intended.

 

Euro clearing - anyone can participate in it, but those outside the EU are held to a higher standard of liquidity than those in the EU. This means that it's less profitable to trade there - it's a typical non-tariff barrier.

 

So post brexit the advantage that London has   disappears, some may stay, some will move back to NY, other go to somewhere in the EU.

 

It's just market forces at work.  

 

 

I thought that if you don't have a hard passport there absolute obstacles to certain kinds of clearing.

[The Renegade]

9 minutes ago, tebee said:

I'm not missing your point, just pointing out that you make a different one to what you intended.

Yes, I see now that you are correct. You are not missing my point. You are, by design or wilfull ignorance, ignoring my point.

 

The EU / Barnier were telling great big porkie pies.

 

Quote

Brussels plan could force euro clearing out of UK after Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/13/brussels-euro-uk-brexit-eu-business

 

As long as New York continues as a € clearing house, the EU does not, despite the lies of Barnier, a snowflakes chance in hell of winning that fight.

[dick dasterdly]

 

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

"The UK formally agreed with the negotiating agenda of the EU; first withdrawal agreement followed by trade talks."

 

I agree entirely.  But the question is why on earth May and the uk negotiators agreed to this in the first place???

 

52 minutes ago, tebee said:

Total incompetence ?

Unlikely.

 

Far more likely is determination to find a way to 'leave in name only'- without the MPs in leave areas being thrown out in disgust at the next election.

[bristolboy]

20 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Yes, I see now that you are correct. You are not missing my point. You are, by design or wilfull ignorance, ignoring my point.

 

The EU / Barnier were telling great big porkie pies.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/13/brussels-euro-uk-brexit-eu-business

 

As long as New York continues as a € clearing house, the EU does not, despite the lies of Barnier, a snowflakes chance in hell of winning that fight.

You might take a moment to look up hard passporting rights which give full unfettered access to the EU's financial system. For that to continue, the UK would at a minimum have to be a member of the EEA.

 

‘Hard Brexit’ means Britain would lose passporting rights, Bundesbank head warns

 

Britain would be stripped of the right to authorise banks and other finance companies to operate across the remaining 27 European Union nations unless it remained in the European Economic Area, Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank said.

The authorisation process, known as passporting, was “crucial” for London, Mr Weidmann said. But EEA membership, also known as the Norway option, would mean continuing to accept the free movement of people and was seen as unlikely, given Theresa May’s pledge to limit EU migrants.

 

‘Hard Brexit’ means Britain would lose passporting rights, Bundesbank head warns

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hard-choice-will-mean-you-give-up-your-rights-to-a-passport-lzz78hhqh

[tebee]

31 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Yes, I see now that you are correct. You are not missing my point. You are, by design or wilfull ignorance, ignoring my point.

 

The EU / Barnier were telling great big porkie pies.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/13/brussels-euro-uk-brexit-eu-business

 

As long as New York continues as a € clearing house, the EU does not, despite the lies of Barnier, a snowflakes chance in hell of winning that fight.

From 
   https://www.ft.com/content/26a494ae-5922-11e8-bdb7-f6677d2e1ce8

 

The European Securities and Markets Authority would have the power to decide if volume of derivatives-clearing outside the EU are so vital to the bloc’s financial stability that the business must take place in the EU.

 

The parliament said those discretionary powers may include greater say — in “exceptional circumstances” — over the type of collateral, such as sovereign bonds, held in the clearing house, and prior approval of changes to the way a clearing house calculates the amount of margin, or the insurance supplied to backstop a trade.

 

Incidentally, these measures will cause as much pain to the US clearers as the UK ones. 
 

[The Renegade]

Quote

Brexit: May's plan 'dead', say Tory remainers and leavers jointly ahead of key votes - Politics live

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/16/brexit-mays-plan-dead-say-tory-remainers-and-leavers-jointly-ahead-of-key-votes-politics-live

 

Taxi for May

[The Renegade]

10 minutes ago, tebee said:

Incidentally, these measures will cause as much pain to the US clearers as the UK ones. 

And you still cannot see the woods for the trees tebee.

 

It is not going to happen. It is fearmongering.

 

The EU could not, in a month of Sunday's, take € clearing from London and New York. They do not have the facilities or the capacity to do so.

 

Here is another little gem that will tickle you pink, we know how you just love all those bankers leaving London for the Continent.

 

Despite the bluster over the last year from Lloyd ( who now looks like a fool ) Blankfein.
 

We are all moving to Frankfurt, hurrah.

 

Quote

Goldman Sachs plans to almost fully occupy its £1bn under-construction London headquarters, despite starting to move around 500 City bankers to the EU due to Brexit.

 

The US investment bank intends to fill all but half a floor of the 10 storey “groundscraper” on Farringdon Road when its bankers move in from three older properties nearby next year, it is understood.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/15/goldman-sachs-fill-new-london-hq-despite-brexit-fears/

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by The Renegade

[tebee]

5 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

And you still cannot see the woods for the trees tebee.

 

It is not going to happen. It is fearmongering.

 

The EU could not, in a month of Sunday's, take € clearing from London and New York. They do not have the facilities or the capacity to do so.

 

Here is another little gem that will tickle you pink, we know how you just love all those bankers leaving London for the Continent.

 

Despite the bluster over the last year from Lloyd ( who now looks like a fool ) Blankfein.
 

We are all moving to Frankfurt, hurrah.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/15/goldman-sachs-fill-new-london-hq-despite-brexit-fears/

 

 

They don't have to take it.

 

Just make it a little more expensive to do business there.

 

Market forces will do the rest.

 

More banks spend their own money to generate that capacity for them  - it will cost the EU itself nothing.

 

Welcome to the wonderful  world of non-tariff barriers !

[The Renegade]

30 minutes ago, tebee said:

More banks spend their own money to generate that capacity for them  - it will cost the EU itself nothing.

 

Welcome to the wonderful  world of non-tariff barriers !

You really are barking up the wrong tree.

 

Nothing to do with non - tariff barriers and all to do with who does the € clearing. Which is predominantly London and New York. 

 

Estimate how much it is going to cost the EU if London and New York can no longer clear €'s when the EU does not capability to do this themselves.

 

???

 

Priceless 

[The Renegade]

Are the resident remainers now going to rally against '' The Experts '' ?

 

Quote

David Henig, a trade expert who is head of the UK Trade Policy Project, has also written a good Twitter thread on the second referendum issue. He is not convinced that it would solve the Brexit problem because he thinks people have still not faced up to what the choices are

Quote

David Allen Green, a legal commentator for the Financial Times, has written a good Twitter thread explaining why he does not think trying to hold a second referendum is realistic

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/16/brexit-mays-plan-dead-say-tory-remainers-and-leavers-jointly-ahead-of-key-votes-politics-live

 

C'mon remainers. Are you with or against '' The Experts '' ?

[The Renegade]

Quote

Scott Mann resigns at Tory PPS over May's Brexit plan

Another Conservative has resigned as a parliamentary private secretary over Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Scott Mann, MP for North Cornwall, who was a PPS to the Treasury team, says he is not prepared to accept a “watered down Brexit”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/16/brexit-mays-plan-dead-say-tory-remainers-and-leavers-jointly-ahead-of-key-votes-politics-live

 

Another one bites the dust.

 

Will May still be PM at the end of tonight's Parliamentary session ?

[tebee]

16 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

You really are barking up the wrong tree.

 

Nothing to do with non - tariff barriers and all to do with who does the € clearing. Which is predominantly London and New York. 

 

Estimate how much it is going to cost the EU if London and New York can no longer clear €'s when the EU does not capability to do this themselves.

 

???

 

Priceless 

Your not understanding how things work in real life are you ?

 

The Eu is not going to decree that you can't do Euro clearing 

 

Just make it a bit mmotre expensive

[The Renegade]

1 minute ago, tebee said:

Just make it a bit mmotre expensive

What language is that ? ???

[The Renegade]

10 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Another one bites the dust.

 

Will May still be PM at the end of tonight's Parliamentary session ?

 

Resigning to respect the wished of his constituents.

 

Good man.

[nontabury]

6 hours ago, evadgib said:

JRM reacts to PM/Andrew Marr

 

Confirmation that Appeaser May lied to the British people, and kept her E.U negotiating team in the dark. Treacherous is not a strong enough word to describe her. What is important,is how long will she be in charge.

[Chomper Higgot]

9 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Confirmation that Appeaser May lied to the British people, and kept her E.U negotiating team in the dark. Treacherous is not a strong enough word to describe her. What is important,is how long will she be in charge.

Don’t use the term ‘treacherous’ in conjunction with a video of Rees-Mogg, people might get the right idea.

 

Rees-Mogg’s hedge fund is betting against the UK over  Brexit.

[nontabury]

4 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Have to agree that it's a bit odd that the eu negotiatiors have said pretty much nothing about the white paper.

 

I'm not convinced that May has been "slowly backing the EU into a corner" though.  Why do this rather than make it very clear from the start that the uk govt. isn't accepting the eu's 'negotiating agenda', but are more than happy to talk about a trade deal?  The brit. govt. (under May), has done the opposite - which makes me very cynical....

You have to remember,that May flew over to Berlin the week before she presented her white paper to the cabinet, in order to take instructions from Merkel. I suspect that Merkel gave her plan a provisional approval,probably with a proviso that the E.U would come back with a few adjustments,and that May would then agree to these extra adjustment, declaring it a great deal.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2018 by nontabury

[tebee]

[Chomper Higgot]

40 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

 

Resigning to respect the wished of his constituents.

 

Good man.

Shocking news.

 

Tory MPs who are in the minority supporting Brexit resign when they don’t get their way.