Tham Luang cave: Evacuation poses challenge

[rwill]

perhaps put them in a deep sea/atmospheric diving suit and pull them through.

 

[evilebxxx]

13 minutes ago, bluesofa said:

The rope they had laid to mark the route had just run out, so they came up for a breather before returning back. That was when they came across the kids.

he British diver found the 12 missing boys and their assistant coach trapped inside Tham Luang cave because he ran out of a guiding rope, forcing him to the water’s surface, according to The New York Times.

 

John Volanthen was placing guidelines in an attempt to get closer to the missing team in the flooded cave network when he found the boys.

 

As he came to the water’s surface, “there they were, all 13, staring at him through the light of his headlamp,” according to the Times.

[CGW]

4 hours ago, neeray said:

Drill Baby Drill

Doubt this will be an option, I spent a lifetime drilling holes, for sure it would be easy enough to drill, but to drill you need a stable reasonably flat site that can take the weight of the equipment, it will be heavy as you would need a good amount of horse power to drill a large hole that would be big enough to hoist them out. Geology would obviously also have to be taken into account, PTT have had geologists on site throughout so they have the expertise there.

Personally I don't see a huge issue with teaching the kids how to use BA and taken them out by the tunnel, at there age it would be a adventure, also divers by nature tend to be very good teachers for the most part.

[jossthaifarang]

2 hours ago, Mikey421 said:

Pump it out...


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Good idea mate..

[jossthaifarang]

20 minutes ago, rwill said:

perhaps put them in a deep sea/atmospheric diving suit and pull them through.

 

Be careful mate, I got shot down for proposing that idea yesterday.. The pessimists outweigh us lot, apparently we supposed to just be quite and let the specialists find a way..  

[pokerface1]

Why not give each boy an injection to knock him out and then put a face mask on him and with 2 divers one at each end of the boy feed him through the cave system to safety. The doctors who are with the boys could administer and supervise the process. The boys my need to undergo decompression once the are out, as the increased level of water in the cave would also have increased the air pressure inside the cave.

[jossthaifarang]

2 hours ago, Mikey421 said:

Explosives might cause a cave in as the rock in most of these areas are quite porous limestone formations.


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Sorry mate, I was referring to the first part of the comment,

 

"wrap them up so they can't do damage if they panic, fix weights to them, and then transport them through the system like they would move equipment"

[bluesofa]

Just to add a little humour for a second.

Some bright spark on Thai social media added a comment to the dialogue when the kids were found:

One of the kids had asked where the two guys were from. They told them England.

Added response: Wow! That must be a long way to get here underwater!

 

[neeray]

1 minute ago, bluesofa said:

Just to add a little humour for a second.

Some bright spark on Thai social media added a comment to the dialogue when the kids were found:

One of the kids had asked where the two guys were from. They told them England.

Added response: Wow! That must be a long way to get here underwater!

 

Definitely some badly needed "levity".

[jossthaifarang]

2 hours ago, MikeN said:

You want them to start blowing up the cave ? And bring the roof down, blocking the passageway ? Even in the best of conditions it would require precision placement of just the right amount of explosive in just the right places, drilled into the rock. That is not what they or any other SEAL team is trained for. And remember, the rock has nowhere to go, instead of smooth solid rock on the roof at best you would now have lots of sharp jagged boulders on the floor of a narrow passage, at worst a completely blocked route.

Demolition does not necessarily mean explosives, there are many ways to demolish. Jack hammers come to mind, chip away small pieces of the walls to make way. 

[Mikey421]

As mentioned in the other threads, the rock is made up of porous limestone. Kind of like a sponge made out of rock. It is full of small holes and tiny channels that the water can flow through. Over thousands of years, erosion has made some of those channels large enough for people to enter as smaller water channels have eroded and converged. There is no single water source that they could block/divert to lower the water levels as the entire area is like one big aquifer, slowly draining the rain water that has fallen over a large area.
 
It was mentioned that they are trying to find some of the larger water sources that drain through those caves and block/divert them. If they can block/divert enough water, it could be possible for the kids to walk out, even if the water is still deep in some parts of the cave.

Blasting would be out of the question as even a small blast could trigger a disastrous cave in. The pressure wave would be intensified by being in a confined space. (Remember the old adage about holding a firecracker on an open hand compared to holding it in a closed fist ?) A charge small enough that the risk is minimal would probably also be too small to be of any real use. A charge large enough to get the job done could cause more problems than it was meant to solve.
Imagine if they tried to blast a small obstruction in a spot where the divers have to take off their tanks to get through (so what, about 30" or 75cm ?). It could end up plugging that passageway completely and force them to try another method that could be just as risky (or worse). Not to mention it could also open up additional channels in the rocks that could result in more water flowing in that area as well.

Drilling is also risky. Remember, it wouldn't be some little 4" pipe. It'd be more like a 24" shaft (at least) in order to be able to use a rescue cage large enough to fit an adult. It would also be a shaft of approx 1.2 kilometers. That's a pretty large project. Not something Somchai and his 50 year old water drilling truck would be capable of.
 
Drilling a shaft that large through a rock "sponge" as I mentioned above could collapsing the roof of the cavern (remember, it isn't solid rock they are drilling through) and could risk flooding the chamber with water that is currently just dripping through tiny channels in the rock. 
It might be a safer option to try drilling into the "Pattaya Beach" cavern and if that is successful, move the group to that cavern for extraction. A much shorter distance for them to have to move and less risk if there was cave-in (in the Pattaya Beach cavern) during the drilling. 

One article said it could take "months" for the boys to get enough strength back to try and get out using diving gear. Not sure what planet the person who wrote that came from but I highly doubt it would take more than a week for a bunch of athletic kids to bounce back into shape. They'll probably be feeling revved up and ready to go with a few days of getting some proper nourishment and be chomping at the bit to do something, anything, to get out of there. A couple weeks of good food and basic training and they will probably be good to go.
 
Seriously. People who've never dove before in their lives can be SCUBA trained and qualified in a couple of days. The kids don't have to become Olympic swimmers. They don't have to become PADI master instructors. The actual time they would spend underwater may not be that long at all.

Everyone assumes it is going to be a 3 kilometer long underwater dive in pitch black conditions but it isn't. There are many stretches where the water isn't that deep (wading depth) or there is no water at all, interspersed with sections that are underwater. They will have ropes and lighting the entire way as well in addition to the SEALS and whoever else will be down there to help.
Having a couple weeks of training, loads of hi energy meals and 2 qualified divers to go with each kid the entire distance should be more than enough.

I think their best bet is to divert as much water as they can from entering the caverns, try to pump out as much as they can from the flooded sections and hope that it doesn't rain for a couple of weeks. If there's any sign of a topical storm heading that way, they'll have to move quick but they should be able to go within 2 weeks (or less) at the most. 

Whichever option chosen presents risks. Really it’s up to the kids themselves and the responders going through the options with them.

I can only hope that this is resolved satisfactorily and soonest.


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[Mikey421]

Sorry mate, I was referring to the first part of the comment,
 
"wrap them up so they can't do damage if they panic, fix weights to them, and then transport them through the system like they would move equipment"

No worries!! My error


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[simon43]

I'm actually in contact with the British cave team, and have sent them a proposed, simple method of getting the boys out of the caves with minimum risk and possibility of panic.  This is not a 'quack' solution, but one that I've designed over the past few days.

 

I hope to hear again from the cave team later today... ?

 

 

[THE REVERAND]

This is AMAZING watching the ideas from the  "CARDBOARD CUTOUT COWBOYS" with their "brilliant " ideas are we forgetting who managed to get to the boys initially and still the only ones with them . THIS PROFESSIONAL GROUP  are required and capable of making THE BIG and IMPORTANT  DECISIONS and MUST IT BE ONLY THEM. 

 

[CGW]

56 minutes ago, rwill said:

perhaps put them in a deep sea/atmospheric diving suit and pull them through.

That would be beyond scary for them ?

Plan B, what if they get stuck, very likely if they have to remove BA to navigate now, also doubt there would even be suits there size? Compression diving not so common now as ROV tend to do tasks divers used to do.

What would they use for air? the air lines need to be connected to a "source" so would need to be long, then the problem is they would "snag" get hung up as the tunnel is not straight.

[maxcorrigan]

1 minute ago, simon43 said:

I'm actually in contact with the British cave team, and have sent them a proposed, simple method of getting the boys out of the caves with minimum risk and possibility of panic.  This is not a 'quack' solution, but one that I've designed over the past few days.

 

I hope to hear again from the cave team later today... ?

 

 

I was under the impression thet had gone back to the UK, maybe just another rumour then!

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, THE REVERAND said:

..... THIS PROFESSIONAL GROUP  are required and capable of making THE BIG and IMPORTANT  DECISIONS and MUST IT BE ONLY THEM. 

 

Don't worry...I don't think there is much chance of the authorities delegating this to the TV membership! ?

[simon43]

I was under the impression thet had gone back to the UK, maybe just another rumour then!

 

Whether they are in Thailand or the UK or the north pole is irrelevant - we communicate using a new-fangled contraption called email.....

 

I worked for 15 years as a satellite and rocket systems designer and integrator - it is that knowledge and my ongoing hands-on engineering skills that caused me to propose my simple but realistic technical solution ?

[jerry921]

3 minutes ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

Whether they are in Thailand or the UK or the north pole is irrelevant - we communicate using a new-fangled contraption called email.....

 

I worked for 15 years as a satellite and rocket systems designer and integrator - it is that knowledge and my ongoing hands-on engineering skills that caused me to propose my simple but realistic technical solution ?

Do let us know in the unlikely event that you get a response

[wealthychef]

3 hours ago, Mikey421 said:

Would drilling not upset the air pressure balance that is preventing the waters from rising quickly?

 

No, water levels in caves are not set by the air pressure.  IANAE, but I would think that the vast majority of caves have openings to the outside world.  Only one that is perfectly sealed might have pressure as you say, or one that is below sea level or a lake.  Since the boys walked here, there's no way it's like that.    

[simon43]

Do let us know in the unlikely event that you get a response

 

My OP makes that clear - "I am already in contact with..." ==> implies a 2-way communication ?

[steve73]

If we could get KwKw (just add the i's) from here to go into the chamber that the kids are in, within a few hours they would be so desperate to escape they would be able to free-dive all the way back to the entrance....

 

(and for the many that won't understand - this is a joke..)

[evilebxxx]

20 minutes ago, steve73 said:

If we could get KwKw (just add the i's) from here to go into the chamber that the kids are in, within a few hours they would be so desperate to escape they would be able to free-dive all the way back to the entrance....

 

(and for the many that won't understand - this is a joke..) 

https://web.facebook.com/ChannelNewsAsia/videos/10155700013592934/

[jossthaifarang]

44 minutes ago, CGW said:

That would be beyond scary for them ?

Plan B, what if they get stuck, very likely if they have to remove BA to navigate now, also doubt there would even be suits there size? Compression diving not so common now as ROV tend to do tasks divers used to do.

What would they use for air? the air lines need to be connected to a "source" so would need to be long, then the problem is they would "snag" get hung up as the tunnel is not straight.

I think a lot of people are underestimating these little guys abilities, they managed to get to safety on their own, have managed to wait it out for that long and all of them obviously have got the gonads to go in there in the first place. So they are obviously fairly fearless little guys the lot of them, I know grown men that will piss themselves just going in there a few meters.  

 

If they understand that is what Its going to take to get them home to Mom and Dad, I'm fairly certain they will be up for it. Its quite possibly time for the officials to explain the options and see what it is that they are comfortable with.. Which the officials may already be doing? It's anyone's guess whats really going on in there right now mate.

 

Anyway, just seen news come through that they might try to evacuate this week, maybe one of the experts is on TV?

[Fish Head Soup]

4 hours ago, MikeN said:

You want them to start blowing up the cave ? And bring the roof down, blocking the passageway ? Even in the best of conditions it would require precision placement of just the right amount of explosive in just the right places, drilled into the rock. That is not what they or any other SEAL team is trained for. And remember, the rock has nowhere to go, instead of smooth solid rock on the roof at best you would now have lots of sharp jagged boulders on the floor of a narrow passage, at worst a completely blocked route.

Wow, you interpreted my comment of 'can they not widen the most obstructive part slightly somehow' to me wanting them to 'start blowing up the cave'. Dim beyond belief.

[Emster23]

If getting stuck in a flooded cave for weeks and possibly months is considered "lucky", I think I'll stick with the luck I've got, thank you very much

[CGW]

1 hour ago, jossthaifarang said:

I think a lot of people are underestimating these little guys abilities, they managed to get to safety on their own, have managed to wait it out for that long and all of them obviously have got the gonads to go in there in the first place. So they are obviously fairly fearless little guys the lot of them, I know grown men that will piss themselves just going in there a few meters.  

I agree with you, when I was that age getting strapped into a BA & swimming out of a tunnel would have been fun - O how times change ? 

[steve73]

7 minutes ago, CGW said:

I agree with you, when I was that age getting strapped into a BA & swimming out of a tunnel would have been fun - O how times change ? 

I also agree - but can you imagine the severe "loss-of-face" if anything were to happen to any of them doing this. 

I still think perhaps the (older) kids showing more confidence/ability will be offered this option - provided heavy rains don't occur first, and make staying in until the end of the wet season a fait accompli.

 

edit..

Unfortunately, I think the potential L-o-F will delay any decision to bring them out sooner, at least until there's more rain, and simply so they'll be persuaded to take the longer but safer option   

Edited July 4, 2018 by steve73

[CGW]

Just now, steve73 said:

I also agree - but can you imagine the severe "loss-of-face" if anything were to happen to any of them doing this. 

I still think perhaps the (older) kids showing more confidence/ability will be offered this option - provided heavy rains don't occur first, and make staying in until the end of the wet season a fait accompli.  

Difficult decision for the "commander" for sure, in this situation you also have to consider "culpability" in this day and age the chances of being prosecuted/held liable, hero or zero? not a lot of room in-between!

If they miss the opportunity to get them out before more rains arrive I would have thought drilling a shaft would be the next option rather than waiting four months.

[steve73]

4 minutes ago, CGW said:

Difficult decision for the "commander" for sure, in this situation you also have to consider "culpability" in this day and age the chances of being prosecuted/held liable, hero or zero? not a lot of room in-between!

If they miss the opportunity to get them out before more rains arrive I would have thought drilling a shaft would be the next option rather than waiting four months.

 

See my earlier post (maybe on another thread...) but I would think drilling a shaft of a size suitable to haul the guys out would take much longer than 4 months....