'Limited time' for daring rescue mission to free Thailand's trapped boys

[rooster59]

'Limited time' for daring rescue mission to free Thailand's trapped boys

By Patpicha Tanakasempipat and John Geddie

 

Thai divers gather before they enter to the Tham Luang cave, where 12 boys and their soccer coach are trapped, in the northern province of Chiang Rai, Thailand, July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

CHIANG RAI, Thailand (Reuters) - There is "limited time" to bring out 12 schoolboys and their soccer coach who have been trapped for two weeks inside a flooded cave in northern Thailand before heavy rains set in, the rescue mission's head said on Saturday.

 

The warning came a day after a Thai diver died during part of the rescue operation, marking a deadly turn in what started out as a celebration of one of the boys' birthdays at the Tham Luang cave complex in northern Chiang Rai province.

 

A team of Thai Navy SEALS, soldiers, police and volunteers have been working around the clock to try and drain the cave. The boys, aged between 11 and 16 and not all of whom are capable swimmers, are hurriedly being taught to take on a treacherous dive through narrow, muddy, submerged passageways.

 

"The critical point is when it rains again ... There is limited time," Narongsak Osottanakorn, head of the rescue mission and Chiang Rai's former governor, told a midnight media briefing.

 

He said he wanted to reduce risks but added that falling oxygen levels inside the cave were another "really big concern".

 

Rescue alternatives include stocking the cave with supplies and an oxygen line to keep the boys alive in the cave for months until Thailand's monsoon season ends, or drilling a shaft down into the cave from the forest above.

 

Narongsak said they would have to drill through 600 metres (1,970 feet) of fragile limestone rock to reach the boys and were discussing drilling angles.

 

(Click on the link for an interactive graphic on the rescue effort - https://tmsnrt.rs/2KR2zRj)

 

REALITY SETS IN

 

The initial jubilation around the boys' discovery by a team of British divers on Monday has faded as the reality of the challenge of their extraction has set in.

 

The ordeal facing the boys was underscored by the death of a former Thai Navy SEAL in the cave on Friday morning.

 

However, Ivan Katadzic, a Danish diving instructor who has been ferrying oxygen tanks inside the cave, said after a dive on Friday evening he was "double positive" about the mission because the water level had dropped considerably.

 

Katadzic has not dived the final kilometre to where the boys are stranded on a muddy bank, the most dangerous part of the dive where rescuers have to hold their oxygen tanks in front of them to squeeze through submerged holes.

 

A team on the hill above is frantically trying to block holes and divert streams that channel water into the cave before the weather turns.

 

"Everything is a race against time", said Kamolchai Kotcha, an official at the forest park. His team would camp out on the hill to try and finish their work before the rain came, he said.

 

Divers took the boys letters written by family members camped outside the cave but an attempt to send down a phone failed earlier this week.

 

The president of soccer's governing body, FIFA, invited the boys on Thursday to be his guests at the World Cup Final in Moscow on July 15 if they make it out in time.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-07-07

[sweatalot]

terrible. We've been so happy when they were found. We thought it's over. 

Best of luck now - and may they all get out safely

[keith101]

If they swim them out what is an acceptable loss of life , one experienced diver has already died and most of these boys cant swim let alone cave dive which sees loss of life all the time (2004 19 died) biggest loss in one year . 475 deaths between 1950 and 1999 averaging just under 7 per year not good odds for bringing out 13 untrained .

Edited July 7, 2018 by keith101

[sweatalot]

7 minutes ago, keith101 said:

If they swim them out what is an acceptable loss of life , one experienced diver has already died and most of these boys cant swim let alone cave dive which sees loss of life all the time (2004 19 died) biggest loss in one year . 475 deaths between 1950 and 1999 averaging just under 7 per year not good odds for bringing out 13 untrained .

right - but what if their shelter will be flooded? If that's a real danger they can't stay there

Edited July 7, 2018 by sweatalot

[keith101]

Limestone is relatively easy to drill through and they don't need to drill right over their heads but the only problem is getting equipment to the area to start i think they should have done this as soon as they found them but thats just my opinion for what its worth .

[Hummin]

2 minutes ago, sweatalot said:

right - but what if their shelter will be flooded? If that's a real danger they can't stay there

You have to roll the dice and hope the best! Either way is risky, but considering an expert die as an referance it is impossible, I do not aggree. It is possible if the boys  can stay calm, and have overpressure full face mask, and being guided out! 

 

The experienced navy diver I guess had no or little previous cave diving experience and pushed his limits to be a hero. He also announced his departure to be so! 

[Sheryl]

If they swim them out what is an acceptable loss of life , one experienced diver has already died and most of these boys cant swim let alone cave dive which sees loss of life all the time (2004 19 died) biggest loss in one year . 475 deaths between 1950 and 1999 averaging just under 7 per year not good odds for bringing out 13 untrained .

It is not a matter of x amount of loss of life being acceptable.

No loss is acceptable but no option is without risks.

So it is a matter of continuously weighing tbe relative risks.

Some of the relavent factors in the risk equation are continuously changing so constant reappraisal.



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[nausea]

1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

So it is a matter of continuously weighing tbe relative risks.

Very true, but, at the end of the day, it will be judged on the outcome not the pros and cons of any particular course of action. As Hummin said above, someone has to "roll the dice". If it works they'll be lauded, if it fails no doubt there'll be plenty of naysayers criticising their judgement.

 

5 minutes ago, Hummin said:

It is possible if the boys  can stay calm, 

I was wondering if there was some drug they could give them that might instill confidence and calmness without making them unduly reckless or soporific.

[lannarebirth]

8 minutes ago, nausea said:

Very true, but, at the end of the day, it will be judged on the outcome not the pros and cons of any particular course of action. As Hummin said above, someone has to "roll the dice". If it works they'll be lauded, if it fails no doubt there'll be plenty of naysayers criticising their judgement.

 

I was wondering if there was some drug they could give them that might instill confidence and calmness without making them unduly reckless or soporific.

 

A meditation or breathing exercise might prove beneficial.

[Eric Loh]

Teams are scouting natural chimneys using GPS to locate the best drilling route to reach the kids and coach. 

 

Courtesy of CNN

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

The president of soccer's governing body, FIFA, invited the boys on Thursday to be his guests at the World Cup Final in Moscow on July 15 if they make it out in time.

Well, that is pretty dark. Nothing like splashing a lot of cold water on the people effected to try and make yourself look good.

[JAZZDOG]

42 minutes ago, keith101 said:

If they swim them out what is an acceptable loss of life , one experienced diver has already died and most of these boys cant swim let alone cave dive which sees loss of life all the time (2004 19 died) biggest loss in one year . 475 deaths between 1950 and 1999 averaging just under 7 per year not good odds for bringing out 13 untrained .

Statistically if you gave a 95% chance of one child surviving rescue then the chance of surviving two separate rescues would be 90%, three 86% etc. The probability all 13 would survive separate similar rescue attempts would be 51%. If the initial probability were estimated at 90% then the success of 13 rescues would be 25%. If the level of confidence fell to 50/50 then the chance of 13 successful separate rescues would be 1/10,000 same as flipping a coin and getting heads 13 times in a row. That is why staying in place as a group with a higher probability of confidence is much better than 13 separate rescue attempts. Key is to have a contingency to mitigate any problems that should arise before mid-October when the boys walk home. 

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015419707539615744

 

Letter from Nik: “I love you father & mother and Toy. If we can get out, please can you take me to eat at a pan fried pork restaurant? I love you.”

 

แม่-พ่อ นิครักพ่อกับแม่เน้อ กับน้องโตย ถ้าออกไปได้ พ่อ-แม่พาไปกินหมูกระทะหน่อย นิครักพ่อ-แม่-แม่ #ThamLuang #ถ้ำหลวง #Thailand

[Sheryl]

6 minutes ago, JAZZDOG said:

....That is why staying in place as a group with a higher probability of confidence is much better than 13 separate rescue attempts. Key is to have a contingency to mitigate any problems that should arise before mid-October when the boys walk home. 

The problem is that once thoroughly rained in, there is virtually nothing that can be done to mitigate worse case scenarios.

 

You may be certain that staying in place is the safest option but those working on the scene, with expert advice,  are not. No one is able to guarantee that the dry area will stay dry, that the air pocket will continue to have enough air, that O2 levels won't drop/CO2 levels rise, that no medical emergencies will occur in any of these people over a 4 month perod, etc etc.

 

If there were certainty on these points then diving out would not even be under consideration. but there is not.

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015427542520455169

 

Letter from Coach Aek to the parents: The children are well. The rescue team are looking after us well. I promise I will look after your children to the best of my ability. Thank you for your support. I want to also sincerely apologize to all of the parents. #ThamLuang #Thailand

[JAZZDOG]

1 hour ago, sweatalot said:

right - but what if their shelter will be flooded? If that's a real danger they can't stay there

I got totally voted down but I would suggest using a series of 6-8 man survival rafts used on yacht. I have one stowed on the deck of my boat compressed into an 18"x24"x36" case. It could be taken out and feed thru the gaps but might fit thru in the case. Move to an open area maybe Pattaya Beach with a high ceiling. Enclosed, dry and beats hell out sitting / sleeping in the mud. There is no limit to how many you  could set up to house kids, water food etc. Climate could be controlled and oxygen could be supplied. A doctor could remain with the kids along with seals. Just a thought and I am sure the Seals have considered it. Only prefab structure I can think of that would float.

[stevenl]

Get them out, now. Yesterday would have been better, but do it now. All this hesitation due to IMO being afraid to make a very important decision is only putting their and other's lifes at more risk.

[JAZZDOG]

32 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

The problem is that once thoroughly rained in, there is virtually nothing that can be done to mitigate worse case scenarios.

 

You may be certain that staying in place is the safest option but those working on the scene, with expert advice,  are not. No one is able to guarantee that the adry area will stay dry, that the air pocket will continue to have enough air, that O2 levels won't drop/CO2 levels rise, that no medical emergencies will occur in any of these people over a 4 month perod, etc etc.

 

If there were certainty on these points then diving out would not even be under consideration. but there is not.

I firmly believe diving out has already been vetoed or they would have done it by now. Conditions as far as rain are only going to worsen and a couple days makes little difference preparing the kids to successfully pull this off. They aren't going to get much stronger, learn to swim, become cave divers or become less freaked out before it starts to rain. These things are going to change little for weeks or even by the time they can walk out. Nobody is going to pull the switch on a plan where they may lose some of these kids until all other options are exhausted. Consider the plan off the table.

Edited July 7, 2018 by JAZZDOG
typo

[JAZZDOG]

51 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

The problem is that once thoroughly rained in, there is virtually nothing that can be done to mitigate worse case scenarios.

 

You may be certain that staying in place is the safest option but those working on the scene, with expert advice,  are not. No one is able to guarantee that the dry area will stay dry, that the air pocket will continue to have enough air, that O2 levels won't drop/CO2 levels rise, that no medical emergencies will occur in any of these people over a 4 month perod, etc etc.

 

If there were certainty on these points then diving out would not even be under consideration. but there is not.

That's why they need to multi=task and do as much as possible with the limited time available in order of top priority. Having said they have done a good job I only question why they could not have brought in more pumping capacity. I don't see why you would be limited in that regard. It is way easier to insure certainty staying in place than believing these kids are going to float, because they cant swim, out of there. I think people lose sight of objectivity over instant gratification. 

-oxygen

-food/water/medical

-floating enclosure

-relocate to best long-term location

-set up communication

-hunker down as you would for a three month independent stay

[RC8]

Water level is dropping all the time. Most is now walkable but the bits that are not are still extremely dangerous. Dry run now with a navy seal pretending he can't swim. Adjust plan and go before rains come Sunday. 

If there is no breakthrough in supplying air to the cave before the rains come then there really is no other option but to dive. To stay means they could all die without even trying an escape. It's the devil's alternative, no easy option.

Best of luck to the boys and rescuers, hope everyone makes it out safe ?

[Eric Loh]

Just who is making the final call and method to evacuate the boys and coach. Who has that fortitude to make that decision. 

[JAZZDOG]

1 minute ago, RC8 said:

Water level is dropping all the time. Most is now walkable but the bits that are not are still extremely dangerous. Dry run now with a navy seal pretending he can't swim. Adjust plan and go before rains come Sunday. 

If there is no breakthrough in supplying air to the cave before the rains come then there really is no other option but to dive. To stay means they could all die without even trying an escape. It's the devil's alternative, no easy option.

Best of luck to the boys and rescuers, hope everyone makes it out safe ?

Very hard to believe as it has already rained twice today. Odds are they never put those kids through that. Getting a 3/4" inch airline to those kids is not rocket science but none the less should have been a top priority already completed. You cited no source so I assume BS. They would have not delayed if the plan was still an option. Presently there is a large line of showers just a few miles to the south stretching from coastal china all the way to the coast of Myanmar. I can pretty much assure you with that much rain just a few miles south no 6 hour operation is going to begin. Last thing we need is to have a flash flood during an extraction. Have you ever thought about the degree of confidence in pulling off that insane plan? 60%, 90% What do you think because you will be flipping a coin 13 times hoping to come up heads every time. Good luck with that but that's the reality.  Keep the kids in place and multi-task the issues involved is the best way forward. Splitting up those kids and taking a shot one at a time is a statistical nightmare.

[Sheryl]

I firmly believe diving out has already been vetoed or they would have done it by now. Conditions as far as rain are only going to worsen and a couple days makes little difference preparing the kids to successfully pull this off. They aren't going to get much stronger, learn to swim, become cave divers or become less freaked out before it starts to rain. These things are going to change little for weeks or even by the time they can walk out. Nobody is going to pull the switch on a plan where they may lose some of these kids until all other options are exhausted. Consider the plan off the table.

It is still very much on the table and per last announcement may be implementes soon.

I do not understand why you think kids being nutritionally rehabilitated will not steadily gain strength. Nor why ongoing training and coaching would not steadily build their comfort and ability levels.

Obviously those on the scene implementing thr effort think otherwise. My experience working with undernourished traumatized people in disaster settings also suggests otherwise.

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[JAZZDOG]

3 minutes ago, JAZZDOG said:

Very hard to believe as it has already rained twice today. Odds are they never put those kids through that. Getting a 3/4" inch airline to those kids is not rocket science but none the less should have been a top priority already completed. You cited no source so I assume BS. They would have not delayed if the plan was still an option. Presently there is a large line of showers just a few miles to the south stretching from coastal china all the way to the coast of Myanmar. I can pretty much assure you with that much rain just a few miles south no 6 hour operation is going to begin. Last thing we need is to have a flash flood during an extraction. Have you ever thought about the degree of confidence in pulling off that insane plan? 60%, 90% What do you think because you will be flipping a coin 13 times hoping to come up heads every time. Good luck with that but that's the reality.  Keep the kids in place and multi-task the issues involved is the best way forward. Splitting up those kids and taking a shot one at a time is a statistical nightmare.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/th/chiang-rai/317549/satellite/317549

[Sheryl]

Get them out, now. Yesterday would have been better, but do it now. All this hesitation due to IMO being afraid to make a very important decision is only putting their and other's lifes at more risk.

I don't think this is it at all.

They were poised to start taking them out last night until the expert cave divers returned with the assessment that the boys were not yet ready. They opted to listen to the experts whose opinions were informed not only by worldwide experience with such rescues but also by direct first hand contact with the boys and the SEALS training them.

I have twice in my life been overpowered by exhaustion while in strong currents in the water, both times while snorkeling and I was fit and well nourished at the time. It is an impressive experience. ( Saved by a passing boat in 1 case and managed to swim to a rock outcropping and rest there in the other). You can literally become incapable of swimming or staying afloat even if you are a good swimmer.

The boys are thin and wasted from 10 days of no food and inactivity. The professionals making the trip back anf forth all say it is very very tough and exhausting. There is also the risk of panic or not being able to remember/follow instructions to consider. Many factors comprise readiness and none of them are static.

Relying on the expert assessment of those on the scene is the best thing the decision makers can do and so far at least, it seems they have.

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[JAZZDOG]

1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

It is still very much on the table and per last announcement may be implementes soon.

I do not understand why you think kids being nutritionally rehabilitated will not steadily gain strength. Nor why ongoing training and coaching would not steadily build their comfort and ability levels.

Obviously those on the scene implementing thr effort think otherwise. My experience working with undernourished traumatized people in disaster settings also suggests otherwise.

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In two or three days the status quo will show little or no change in regard to the kids ability to float out because they aren't swimming.  it is raining there right now. Are they going to begin in the rain?

Do you have any idea how long it takes for the water to rise, current to increase once it starts raining?

Do you understand you are talking 6 hours transit for each kid?

Like I said before extracting those kids one at a time is like flipping a coin heads up 13 times in a row. There are only two outcomes unfortunately. Do the math and you will understand staying in place is much easier to manage and will lead to a much more favorable outcome. I am not negative, actually quite confident. I am negative on this insane plan and very much doubt anyone in charge is going to have the cojones to signoff and own it.

[Sheryl]

In two or three days the status quo will show little or no change in regard to the kids ability to float out because they aren't swimming.  it is raining there right now. Are they going to begin in the rain?
Do you have any idea how long it takes for the water to rise, current to increase once it starts raining?
Do you understand you are talking 6 hours transit for each kid?
Like I said before extracting those kids one at a time is like flipping a coin heads up 13 times in a row. There are only two outcomes unfortunately. Do the math and you will understand staying in place is much easier to manage and will lead to a much more favorable outcome. I am not negative, actually quite confident. I am negative on this insane plan and very much doubt anyone in charge is going to have the cojones to signoff and own it.

My math does not include a certainty that staying in place is completely safe.

On the contrary it has the following listed as complete unknowns:

-- Refuge place remainimg above water throughout the rainy season

-- air pocket remaining adequate throughout the rainy season (it is already proving insufficient in O2 content requiring piped in O2 that may be difficult or impossible to continue once the cave completely floods)

- no one of the 15 or so people having a serious medical emergency over a 4 month period.




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[cyberfarang]

I have an idea how to get those boys out of the cave.

 

Hook a rope to a boy with a diver allocated to each boy and pull the rope along by a winch (similar as pictured below). This would mean the boys would not be required to use their own strength.

 

I am absolutely no expert and know nothing about cave rescue, but is this suggestion feasible and could it work?

[JAZZDOG]

5 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

I don't think this is it at all.

They were poised to start taking them out last night until the expert cave divers returned with the assessment that the boys were not yet ready. They opted to listen to the experts whose opinions were informed not only by worldwide experience with such rescues but also by direct first hand contact with the boys and the SEALS training them.

I have twice in my life been overpowered by exhaustion while in strong currents in the water, both times while snorkeling and I was fit and well nourished at the time. It is an impressive experience. ( Saved by a passing boat in 1 case and managed to swim to a rock outcropping and rest there in the other). You can literally become incapable of swimming or staying afloat even if you are a good swimmer.

The boys are thin and wasted from 10 days of no food and inactivity. The professionals making the trip back anf forth all say it is very very tough and exhausting. There is also the risk of panic or not being able to remember/follow instructions to consider. Many factors comprise readiness and none of them are static.

Relying on the expert assessment of those on the scene is the best thing the decision makers can do and so far at least, it seems they have.

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You just answered your own question. You're a fit adult swimming against the tide, you were not underwater in the dark and you had to be saved twice. There is no resting on a rock 15' deep in waters running like rapids smashing you into jagged rocks down below. Imagine your experience times 10 or more. We can only imagine what it would be like by listening to experts who found it "impossible" when it was raining (quote from the Brit who found the kids.) One expert, RIP, isn't here to tell us about the experience. Yet we are to believe with a couple days rest and trying on a mask on dry land prepares these boys to take on this. I respectfully opt to disagree with you but I believe your heart is in the right place.

pura vida

[Sheryl]

To my understanding that is already more ot lessthe plan for those segments which allow it
But there are very narrow passages (i.e. 36 cm diameter) that have to be squeezed through one by one, underwater, and these go on for many meters.

They have been hoping to get the water down enough that the boys don't have to transverse those sections completely submerged...but the coming rains mean odds if that are rapidly decreasing.

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