UK's new Brexit envoy optimistic, as EU warns of Brexit crash

[webfact]

UK's new Brexit envoy optimistic, as EU warns of Brexit crash

By Alastair Macdonald

 

European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and staff members attend a meeting with Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Dominic Raab in Brussels, Belgium July 19, 2018. Olivier Matthys/Pool via Reuters

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - London's new Brexit minister said he was confident he could reach a deal, on his first trip to Brussels on Thursday as the EU warned business to get ready for Britain crashing out of the bloc without agreed terms to cushion the economic disruption.

 

Brexit campaigner Dominic Raab, appointed to the government last week after his predecessor quit over Prime Minister Theresa May's proposals to stay close to EU trading rules, said Britain was ramping up preparations for a "no deal" but focused above all on selling her ideas to EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

 

The resignation of his predecessor David Davis and others, and May's battles in parliament with pro- and anti-Brexit wings of her own Conservative Party, have led Brussels to wonder whether London is capable of agreeing any deal this year to avoid chaos when it leaves in March.

 

That, the EU's executive European Commission insisted on Thursday, was not the reason for its warning on stepping up preparedness for a "no deal" or "cliff edge" Brexit.

 

Raab said Britain was on track and he would bring new "energy, vigour and vim" to talks as they get down to wire to find a deal before EU leaders meet at a summit in October.

 

"We've only got 12 weeks really left to nail down the details of the agreement, so I set out our proposals," Raab said after meeting Barnier. "I’m sure in good faith, if that energy and that ambition is reciprocated, as I’m confident it will be, we will get there."

 

EU officials and diplomats still think some kind of deal, including a 21-month status quo transition period to allow further talks, is more likely than not, if only because the cost for both sides would be so high.

 

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday EU countries would suffer long-term damage equivalent to about 1.5 percent of annual economic output if Britain leaves without a free trade deal.

 

"While the EU is working day and night for a deal ensuring an orderly withdrawal, the UK's withdrawal will undoubtedly cause disruption, for example in business supply chains, whether or not there is a deal," the Commission said in a statement.

 

"Preparedness is not a mistrust in the negotiations," an EU official added, saying big firms seemed to be advancing in their plans but smaller companies which had never traded outside the single market before would face challenges in their paperwork.

A senior British regulator also warned Britain's banks and insurers on Thursday to plan for a "hard" Brexit.

 

BARNIER BRIEFS

Barnier is due to report back on his meeting with Raab to ministers from the other 27 EU states on Friday.

 

Ahead of talks with Raab, Barnier said the EU was offering an "unprecedented" partnership on future trade relations and that maintaining a close partnership on security was "more important than ever given the geopolitical context".

 

EU officials and diplomats have welcomed last week's proposals as a welcome if overdue starting point for negotiations on an outline of post-Brexit relations that is to accompany a binding treaty on the immediate aspects of withdrawal. But Barnier will also be posing many questions on just how some issues, notably around customs and sharing regulatory standards would work.

 

Getting an outline on those is vital to solving the biggest obstacle to the urgent withdrawal treaty -- how to avoid customs and other friction on the new EU-UK land border in Ireland.

 

Dublin and London say they are committed to avoiding a "hard border" but the EU is also determined to avoid creating a huge loophole in the external frontier of its single market and customs union.

 

With time running short and little sign of May quelling the revolts in her party, there has been renewed discussion among Brussels diplomats and officials about whether a deal can be done by October, or at the latest December, to allow parliaments on both sides to ratify a withdrawal treaty before March 29.

 

"When I see the dynamics in Westminster, I don't think that there is, at this stage, a majority for whatever type of thing we could ever agree with them," one senior EU official said.

 

However, while EU leaders have made no secret of being ready to extend the deadline for a few weeks, there are reservations about any longer delay, short of a U-turn in Britain and a call from London to call Brexit off.

 

Among problems for delaying Brexit is a European Parliament election in late May 2019 which would create questions over when and how it could ratify a late Brexit deal, assuming Britain does not elect members to the new legislature.

 

(Reporting by Alastair Macdonald, Alissa de Carbonnel and Robert-Jan Bartunek; Editing by Catherine Evans and Robin Pomeroy)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-07-20

[The Renegade]

25 minutes ago, webfact said:

London's new Brexit minister said he was confident he could reach a deal, on his first trip to Brussels on Thursday as the EU warned business to get ready for Britain crashing out of the bloc without agreed terms to cushion the economic disruption.

???

 

Delusion at it's finest

 

Quote

Dominic Raab faced ridicule on his first trip to Brussels as Brexit Secretary as the EU flatly rejected Theresa May’s Chequers plan and mocked spelling errors in translations of the document.

 

Senior EU diplomats made it clear that the Brexit white paper agreed at Chequers cannot form the basis for negotiations,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/19/dominic-raab-ridiculed-first-trip-brussels-brexit-secretary/

 

Get it into your thick heads that the EU is not interested in a deal. They are only interested in the UK's capitulation and subjugation to the EU.

[Kwasaki]

 

21 minutes ago, webfact said:

UK leaves in March.

"We've only got 12 weeks really left

U-turn in Britain and a call from London to call Brexit off

delaying Brexit is a European Parliament election in late May 2019

 

OK now that makes perfect sense. ?

 

[BritManToo]

Brexit crash,

Do they mean the UK falling apart or the EU falling apart?

Can't see the EU agreeing to any deal, as it would mean the end of the EU, once the UK exits, more will go.

No point wasting time making trade deals with an organization that will be gone in 2-5 years.

[abrahamzvi]

4 hours ago, The Renegade said:

???

 

Delusion at it's finest

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/19/dominic-raab-ridiculed-first-trip-brussels-brexit-secretary/

 

Get it into your thick heads that the EU is not interested in a deal. They are only interested in the UK's capitulation and subjugation to the EU.

Utter nonsense. It's the UK Brexitirs who are changing their minds every second week. How can a dealbe reached when there is no certainty that it will be accepted by Westminster?

[Baerboxer]

8 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

Utter nonsense. It's the UK Brexitirs who are changing their minds every second week. How can a dealbe reached when there is no certainty that it will be accepted by Westminster?

 

So what proposals of the EU actually put forward?

 

They keep demanding that the UK put forward proposals and then scoff at them or rudely dismiss them all.

 

Doesn't look like they want a deal other than one in which the UK pays ludicrous made up amounts of money whilst submitting to EU laws and rules and does as it's told. And that was always likely given the EU leadership's hatred of all criticism and free thinking and fear that other unhappy member states might follow the UK.

 

How can a deal be reached when there is no certainty it will be accepted by all 27 member states. Silly Malta or Cyprus could and would veto it unless they get something out of it. 

[terryw]

The EU are getting worried that they will not get our £40 billion exit fee.

[Kwasaki]

10 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

So what proposals of the EU actually put forward?

 

They keep demanding that the UK put forward proposals and then scoff at them or rudely dismiss them all.

It seems to me that EU will never accept any deal right up to dead-line or extension they want the worst scenario to happen to UK to discourage others from leaving. 

 

Why can not the UK just finalize the leave list/doc whatever including a reasonable solution to unsolved items of what the UK will except as final withdrawal and say that's it.

Agree or not agree stating we are now out based on the unreasonable behavour of the EU.

[whatsupdoc]

25 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

It seems to me that EU will never accept any deal right up to dead-line or extension they want the worst scenario to happen to UK to discourage others from leaving. 

 

Why can not the UK just finalize the leave list/doc whatever including a reasonable solution to unsolved items of what the UK will except as final withdrawal and say that's it.

Agree or not agree stating we are now out based on the unreasonable behavour of the EU.

Oh dear, oh dear...

The EU has been clear from the beginning: there's a Norway option or Canada option. The 4 freedoms cannot be divided nor can the EU allow cherry-picking. And obviously, the 27 EU countries are not going to change their rules because of one other country that decided to leave!

 

It took the UK two years to come up with some plan and yes, it tries to separate the 4 freedoms, is full of cherry-picking and does not solve the Irish border issue.

Who is being unreasonable???

 

But the UK can also try your strategy. No deal it is then.

[dunroaming]

6 hours ago, The Renegade said:

???

 

Delusion at it's finest

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/19/dominic-raab-ridiculed-first-trip-brussels-brexit-secretary/

 

Get it into your thick heads that the EU is not interested in a deal. They are only interested in the UK's capitulation and subjugation to the EU.

Sort of.  The EU can see the terrible mess Britain is making of trying to make a positive Brexit and making the most of it.  Why should they make any concessions?  It isn't them on the back foot.

[BritManToo]

Just now, dunroaming said:

It isn't them on the back foot.

Are you sure about that?

[dunroaming]

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Are you sure about that?

Well if they are they are hiding it very well.  Can't see any reason why they would be as they hold all the cards.  Of course Britain could play the no deal card but are they that stupid or suicidal?

[steve73]

No Deal, No payment, WTO rules, and no NI border... If the EU want one let them put it on their side... and this will lead to Eire leaving (like they previously wanted to anyway..).

edit.. OK, so the UK may suffer a little initially, but necessity being the mother of invention (or innovation), we'd soon prosper. 

[BritManToo]

9 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Of course Britain could play the no deal card but are they that stupid or suicidal?

1

I don't know about 'Britain', but I certainly am.

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, whatsupdoc said:

The EU has been clear from the beginning

Really so just give up to an unelected bunch of spongers and the dictator rule. 

 

No Deal, No payment, WTO rules, and no NI border well said that man.

[whatsupdoc]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

Really so just give up to an unelected bunch of spongers and the dictator rule. 

 

No Deal, No payment, WTO rules, and no NI border well said that man.

Funny, Brexiteers always asking for the impossible; WTO rules require a hard border....

[vogie]

11 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Well if they are they are hiding it very well.  Can't see any reason why they would be as they hold all the cards.  Of course Britain could play the no deal card but are they that stupid or suicidal?

Barnier may hold all the cards (your words) but if they refuse to play them, it makes a rubbish game. The EU are totally intransigent, they will not negotiate, do we just roll over and submit to any demands they throw at us. Barnier is playing a very dangerous game, this may hurt the UK for a while but I'm damn sure the EU will not walk away unscathed either.

[bristolboy]

41 minutes ago, vogie said:

Barnier may hold all the cards (your words) but if they refuse to play them, it makes a rubbish game. The EU are totally intransigent, they will not negotiate, do we just roll over and submit to any demands they throw at us. Barnier is playing a very dangerous game, this may hurt the UK for a while but I'm damn sure the EU will not walk away unscathed either.

The EU has never denied that it won't hurt if the UK leaves. It's just obvious that the UK gets hurt worse.

[vogie]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

The EU has never denied that it won't hurt if the UK leaves. It's just obvious that the UK gets hurt worse.

 

3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The EU has never denied that it won't hurt if the UK leaves. It's just obvious that the UK gets hurt worse.

Well don't you think that Barnier should show a little more enthusiasm about these negotiations, do you think he could be a little more grown up about things, and if the talks go belly up do you think Barnier should accept some responsibility for the breakdown of these negotiations, from where I am sitting he appears to be totally unconcerned of a final deal.

What should we do, capitulate to every demand they ask of us, the dice has been thrown now, don't you agree if the EU doesn't want to reach an agreement there is nothing we can do about, as somebody said earlier they hold all the cards, they just refuse to play the game.

[Jip99]

20 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

 It's just obvious that the UK gets hurt worse.

 

 

No it isn’t.

[whatsupdoc]

12 minutes ago, vogie said:

 

Well don't you think that Barnier should show a little more enthusiasm about these negotiations, do you think he could be a little more grown up about things, and if the talks go belly up do you think Barnier should accept some responsibility for the breakdown of these negotiations, from where I am sitting he appears to be totally unconcerned of a final deal.

What should we do, capitulate to every demand they ask of us, the dice has been thrown now, don't you agree if the EU doesn't want to reach an agreement there is nothing we can do about, as somebody said earlier they hold all the cards, they just refuse to play the game.

Barnier is realistic. The EU has offered the UK workable options called 'Norway' or 'Canada' (or even no deal if you really want).

That the UK only wants solutions that are unworkable, better than actual or associated membership status, ignore the Irish border or depend on nonexistent technology is not his fault and he can't be blamed for it.

[vogie]

10 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Barnier is realistic. The EU has offered the UK workable options called 'Norway' or 'Canada' (or even no deal if you really want).

That the UK only wants solutions that are unworkable, better than actual or associated membership status, ignore the Irish border or depend on nonexistent technology is not his fault and he can't be blamed for it.

Mrs May has already stated that there will not be a "Canada" option, even though I believe Canada did not have to pay any money to join whereas the UK would, fair to you.

Whatever is put in front of Barnier most people think he will not accept anything, unless tying us in to the EU, so how can one negotiate on that basis. Do you honestly think that all the fault lies with the UK, if the EU had been so damned marvelous why would we be leaving. Do you you think Juncker is a fine upstanding statesman, the EU has shown its true colours and when we've left you can do what ever you like.

[whatsupdoc]

Mrs May has already stated that there will not be a "Canada" option, even though I believe Canada did not have to pay any money to join whereas the UK would, fair to you.
Whatever is put in front of Barnier most people think he will not accept anything, unless tying us in to the EU, so how can one negotiate on that basis. Do you honestly think that all the fault lies with the UK, if the EU had been so damned marvelous why would we be leaving. Do you you think Juncker is a fine upstanding statesman, the EU has shown its true colours and when we've left you can do what ever you like.

If the UK wants the ‘Norway’ option it is available, but with the attached conditions. Norway pays for it and so should the UK.
I think Barnier would be very happy to negotiate that option.

And yes, I do think the UK had a marvelous position within the EU and it really isn’t clear to me why they would want to leave... But that is what they voted for.

Juncker? Well, I prefer not to talk about him.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, whatsupdoc said:

Funny, Brexiteers always asking for the impossible; WTO rules require a hard border....

Yes and let EU do that with spongers Eire.

 

I'm not "Brexiteers" always listen to dad who never wanted to join a bunch of tossers in first place.

[Guest]

Let's go a bit back in time. 

 

These past 2 years should have been used to negotiate and fine-tune the deal between UK and EU. It was thought to be too short timeframe to get everything ready for the final Brexit so that everything goes smoothly.

 

Instead, due UK's internal problems, the negotiations have not even started yet and Brexit is happening very very soon.

 

At this point, it looks unlikely that there is no longer time to fine-tune the existing solutions EU has done with other external, friendly associates. Perhaps UK will select on of the existing models, pay what it owns to EU? Perhaps UK will have hard brexit, and still UK have to pay what it owns to EU.

 

If UK refuses to pay the obligations, then EU can well play the hard ball too. Restricting Britons access to the continent as visitors or as businesses, restricting EU's airspace not allowing UK based airplanes fly over EU etc. Those would be rather harsh options, but if negotiations require show of real power.. 

 

 

[Kwasaki]

3 minutes ago, oilinki said:

restricting EU's airspace not allowing UK based airplanes fly over EU etc.

Good we can pull from NATO  and save more money and block the channel tunnel. ?

[BritManToo]

57 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Good we can pull from NATO  and save more money and block the channel tunnel. ?

And block EU planes flying to the USA.

Enough with the Norway and Canada options, let's do the China option.

[Dumbastheycome]

It is  my  opinion ( and I  make no apology  for it  nor do I  need  one) that  the  engineered  debacle  of  Brexit is the result  of  closet  policy that  in  hindsight was  a mistake. 

What observers  should  consider  is  the  intent of a third  party that has played  its'  cards too quickly.

The  result is the  current international political melting  pot that has  put  all on the  brink of  chaos instead of  the intended  acquiescence to totalitarian global  financial  control.

The  brinkmanship  of  this  is and  will  remain  the  aversion  of  widespread  nuclear weapon warfare.

Not  for  the sake of humanitarian concerns but  the for  the  electronic dependence on the  desire  for a  cashless global empire.

Regardless  of  those  who wishfully  adhere to  the  fictitious ideals  of  democracy it  is  very  obvious  that  ideal despite  being  touted  as  the  continuance of ideals is being  eroded. 

Every facet of  human gullibility is being  employed  to  bring  it  about. 

 

 

[sawadee1947]

10 hours ago, The Renegade said:

???

 

Delusion at it's finest

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/19/dominic-raab-ridiculed-first-trip-brussels-brexit-secretary/

 

Get it into your thick heads that the EU is not interested in a deal. They are only interested in the UK's capitulation and subjugation to the EU.

They deserve it

[sawadee1947]

5 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

It seems to me that EU will never accept any deal right up to dead-line or extension they want the worst scenario to happen to UK to discourage others from leaving. 

 

Why can not the UK just finalize the leave list/doc whatever including a reasonable solution to unsolved items of what the UK will except as final withdrawal and say that's it.

Agree or not agree stating we are now out based on the unreasonable behavour of the EU.

It's a joke isn't it? Who wants to leave? EU or UK? When brain was supplied by God once the Brits stood waiting in the last row..... So they are the left overs.....sic q.e.d.  It's a shame and a pity.