UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[mommysboy]

2 minutes ago, transam said:

????.....So you think the electorate understands about soft and hard Brexit, when many didn't vote and give a stuff...But those who did give a stuff voted to leave to get their streets back...The UK dealt with bombs, buried their dead and came out on top......It will happen again,  iPhone batteries permitting...

Deluded incoherent rant!

Edited October 11, 2018 by mommysboy

[transam]

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I dare say it is to the typical Tory from England.

 

QED, really!

Wrong............Oh how wrong.....BUT, folk like you made an assumption regarding me, just shows how wrong your perception of stuff may be...

[tebee]

46 minutes ago, vogie said:

Where do you get this "people wanted a soft brexit", this terminology only came into the publics vocabulary months after the referendum. We voted as a Nation to stay or leave, nothing more, nothing less.

We know things are not going as smoothly as one would wish for, but the last time I checked the polls the Tories were still ahead of labour. We can forget about the LibDems, the party that voters shunned because they wanted another referendum.

Incidentally Labour had a hard brexit in their manifesto.

I watched Alistair Campbell with Nigel Farage on Breakfast TV the other day and Nigel suggested that the Labour Party was split, to which he replied, "no it isn't, it's divided, the mind boggles.

The soft brexit term was in use before the referendum https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311980964_A_SOFT_BREXIT_ANALYSIS_OF_THE_REFERENDUM_OUTCOMES_AND_FUTURE_POSSIBLE_SCENARIOS

 

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/4xw59q/a-year-in-brexits-hard-soft

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/06/09/scenarios-of-a-new-uk-eu-relationship-soft-brexit/

 

https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/Policy-Brief-Brexit-en_NW_05_2015.pdf

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by tebee

[transam]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Deluded incoherent rant!

Well that maybe your ploblem, have difficulty understanding posts ...????

[mommysboy]

10 minutes ago, transam said:

????.....So you think the electorate understands about soft and hard Brexit, when many didn't vote and give a stuff...But those who did give a stuff voted to leave to get their streets back...The UK dealt with bombs, buried their dead and came out on top......It will happen again,  iPhone batteries permitting...

'So you think the electorate understands about soft and hard Brexit,'

 

YES.

 

QED

Edited October 11, 2018 by mommysboy

[vogie]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

The soft brexit term was in use before the referendum https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311980964_A_SOFT_BREXIT_ANALYSIS_OF_THE_REFERENDUM_OUTCOMES_AND_FUTURE_POSSIBLE_SCENARIOS

 

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/4xw59q/a-year-in-brexits-hard-soft

 

These articles were written in Dec 2016, after the referendum vote. Have you anything to validate your claim before these dates, thanks.

[tebee]

13 minutes ago, vogie said:

These articles were written in Dec 2016, after the referendum vote. Have you anything to validate your claim before these dates, thanks.

from 2015 https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/Policy-Brief-Brexit-en_NW_05_2015.pdf

 

from 2016 

 

https://adviserbusinessreview.com/rathbones-analyses-5-common-myths-around-brexit/

 

https://www.cidob.org/content/download/64268/1984250/version/22/file/DOCUMENTS CIDOB_07_BREXIT.pdf

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by tebee

[mommysboy]

Let's consider what we didn't vote for:

 

Nobody voted for:

1. A total omnishambles.

2. To get poorer.

3. To see the Union divided.

 

 

Brexit is not the holy grail.  It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.  Far bigger issues threaten the UK and the world, not the least climate change.

 

Any CEO, any headmaster, any manager of any sort, would have knocked this on the head a long time ago! How can this be contradicted?

 

 

 

 

 

[tebee]

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Let's consider what we didn't vote for:

 

Nobody voted for:

1. A total omnishambles.

2. To get poorer.

3. To see the Union divided.

 

 

Brexit is not the holy grail.  It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.  Far bigger issues threaten the UK and the world, not the least climate change.

 

Any CEO, any headmaster, any manager of any sort, would have knocked this on the head a long time ago! How can this be contradicted?

 

 

 

 

 

But it is the holy grail - it has become a tenet of faith for some people.

 

No matter how much collateral damage is caused it must happen.

 

The most telling indicator for me was the 87% of leave voters in NI preferring brexit to the peace process.

 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/shock-poll-finds-87-of-northern-ireland-leave-voters-say-peace-process-collapse-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-37395306.html

 

 

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, vogie said:

These articles were written in Dec 2016, after the referendum vote. Have you anything to validate your claim before these dates, thanks.

 

It is often joked that there is only one thing worse than a smoker... and that's an ex-smoker.  I think this rather applies to ex-Labour voters too.????

 

Vogie, given the vote is done and dusted, what really matters is now. Call it what by whatever name you want, the will of the people is not being respected regarding the nature of the deal. Surely you are not saying the present deal is popular?

 

Why are you so intent on foisting on the people a deal that is not wanted? You really do believe Brexit at any cost don't you?  

 

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

3 minutes ago, tebee said:

But it is the holy grail - it has become a tenet of faith for some people.

 

No matter how much collateral damage is caused it must happen.

 

The most telling indicator for me was the 87% of leave voters in NI preferring brexit to the peace process.

 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/shock-poll-finds-87-of-northern-ireland-leave-voters-say-peace-process-collapse-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-37395306.html

 

 

Yes, and most English Tory voters- affectionately known in some circles as Little Englanders- prefer Brexit to retaining the Union.

 

I mean for God's sake!

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

More disturbing news about the “dysfunctional” EU’s “economic illiteracy”. Brussels will find they can’t bully Italy like they bullied Greece.

 

“Matteo Salvini, vowed to sweep away the existing European order. He called Jean-Claude Juncker and his Commission aides "enemies of Europe barricaded inside their Brussels bunker.” 

“He accused Jean-Claude Juncker and the Brussels machine of ravaging the European economy for a decade with destructive policies, and blamed the spreads on orchestrated speculation.””

 

“Ashoka Mody, former deputy-chief of the International Monetary Fund for Europe, said the EU’s budget target is theological nonsense, and the weight attached to a few decimal points here or there is false science. “These numbers are completely meaningless. The fiscal rule is economically illiterate and dysfunctional, yet a narrative has grown that it is somehow sacrosanct,” he told a forum at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).”

 

“Professor Luigi Zingales, an expert on the Italian banks at Chicago University, said the eurozone has done to Italy what foreign creditor powers did to Germany in 1930, cutting off capital flows in a ‘sudden stop’ and then enforcing drastic austerity. Brussels should not now be surprised at the political consequence of this myopia.”

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/08/italian-banks-caught-vicious-circle-bond-spreads-hit-danger/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

 

 

not really news MTL Salvini has been on the barricades with those tirades a number of times already.

eu has its challenges, must earn their salaries now

 

[mommysboy]

11 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

not really news MTL Salvini has been on the barricades with those tirades a number of times already.

eu has its challenges, must earn their salaries now

 

Head in the sand, imo. All major western economies are in the same boat- massive debt and a failing economic system which is not sustainable in both economic and ecological terms.  Italy is in a lot of trouble.  It's not beyond the realms of possibility that their debt contagion combined with a poor Brexit outcome could provoke the sort of crisis the IMF is saying is on the cards.

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Please refresh your memory of what you actually wrote, quoted below: nothing whatsoever to do with regulatory alignment or diseased cattle wandering about.

You have distorted the context by quoting a response to another poster regarding an Irish website. I will remind you what I wrote.

 

"Maybe you can explain how cattle will differentiate between one agricultural policy and another. First sign of a problem and there will be a fence across Ireland before you know it.

 

As for your views on 'smuggling', in whatever form it takes, there are those that would not agree with you.

 

People smugglers are “abusing” soft border controls between Ireland and the UK to get their human cargo past authorities, the National Crime Agency (NCA) has warned.

Officials told The Independent they were concerned about an increase in the number of gangs found to be working through the common travel area, which the government has said it wants to maintain after Brexit."

 

Now if you wish to disagree with Mr Barnier and the NCA., feel free.

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, tebee said:

But it is the holy grail - it has become a tenet of faith for some people.

 

No matter how much collateral damage is caused it must happen.

 

The most telling indicator for me was the 87% of leave voters in NI preferring brexit to the peace process.

 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/shock-poll-finds-87-of-northern-ireland-leave-voters-say-peace-process-collapse-price-worth-paying-for-brexit-37395306.html

 

 

I have a feeling, those Northern Ireland leave voters will be soon moving back to motherland. 

[sandyf]

There are those on this forum that have convinced themselves and trying to convince others that nothing will change in Ireland.

 

"But Mr Barnier warned that so-called phytosanitary checks on live animals and other agricultural products had to be carried out at the border, and would have to apply to 100 per cent of all imports. Some of these checks already exist, but they are only conducted as spot-checks and applied to just 10 per cent of imports."

 

"He added that there would have to be “administrative procedures that do not exist today” but that “the EU proposes to carry out these checks in the least intrusive way possible”."

 

"The British government has indicated that it would accept regulatory checks proposed by Mr Barnier and that it does not see them as a breach of the UK’s sovereignty in the same way as it sees customs checks. "

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-irish-border-checks-northern-ireland-uk-customs-trade-agriculture-a8577781.html

[mommysboy]

More blue chickens:

 

Many posters on this forum are evaluating the Government's performance solely on Brexit, and somehow still coming up with a positive rating; there's more to it than that.

 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-universal-credit-john-major-poll-tax-riots-prime-minister-conservative-tory-leader-a8578476.html

[melvinmelvin]

49 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Let's consider what we didn't vote for:

 

Nobody voted for:

1. A total omnishambles.

2. To get poorer.

3. To see the Union divided.

 

 

Brexit is not the holy grail.  It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.  Far bigger issues threaten the UK and the world, not the least climate change.

 

Any CEO, any headmaster, any manager of any sort, would have knocked this on the head a long time ago! How can this be contradicted?

 

1

It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.

 

Don't think I can agree to the one above.

A number of people voted out 'cause they want full control of UK legislation and full control of UK borders.

And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".

 

To me, that is an honest, kinda simplistic but still honest, approach.

Smart approach or not is kinda past the point.

 

 

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I know you didn't suggest that trade with the EU will stop but a few others are suggesting that which IMHO is somewhat foolish.

 

I Understand that at the moment trade deals must go through the EU but I am not sure how it affects individual companies from the UK. Are they still bound by the EU rules and regs?

 

With regard to the UK and Canada deal there are only 2 countries involved but with the EU and Canada there are 28 including the UK and AFAIK they all have to agree to it.

 

I found this on the BBC News site today.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45796253

 

King Willem-Alexander said he and and his government regretted Brexit and anticipated changes to the current trade arrangements.

He would have liked the EU referendum result to go the other way, but said they respected the sovereign British people's choice.

Trade with the UK will change, he said, but he believes it will still be very strong after the UK leaves the EU.

The Dutch and British have worked together as neighbours for centuries and he thinks that will continue after Brexit, he said.

Current trading on WTO basis is done under the EU schedule and subject to EU rules, post brexit the EU schedule will still be used for the tariffs.

Trading with the EU will always be available, it is the post brexit bureaucracy the will determine the level.

In the EU Canada deal a new court had to be set up for governance, the same problem that is hanging over the EU UK deal.

[melvinmelvin]

10 minutes ago, sandyf said:

There are those on this forum that have convinced themselves and trying to convince others that nothing will change in Ireland.

 

"But Mr Barnier warned that so-called phytosanitary checks on live animals and other agricultural products had to be carried out at the border, and would have to apply to 100 per cent of all imports. Some of these checks already exist, but they are only conducted as spot-checks and applied to just 10 per cent of imports."

 

"He added that there would have to be “administrative procedures that do not exist today” but that “the EU proposes to carry out these checks in the least intrusive way possible”."

 

"The British government has indicated that it would accept regulatory checks proposed by Mr Barnier and that it does not see them as a breach of the UK’s sovereignty in the same way as it sees customs checks. "

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-irish-border-checks-northern-ireland-uk-customs-trade-agriculture-a8577781.html

 

what does the chief DUP Chick say? more interesting than Barnier and May

 

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.

 

Don't think I can agree to the one above.

A number of people voted out 'cause they want full control of UK legislation and full control of UK borders.

And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".

 

To me, that is an honest, kinda simplistic but still honest, approach.

Smart approach or not is kinda past the point.

 

 

'And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".'

 

Then why isn't a simple WTO option popular?  Surely, this would be problem solved.

 

What we want (and I would rather like to be out of the EU) is not do-able without consequences?  What cost is acceptable to you?  1%,5%, 10% drop in GDP.  The loss of one or more countries from the union? 5 more years of austerity?  

 

 

'Kinda' ?!

 

 

[dunroaming]

10 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

It is in fact subordinate to the health and wealth of the UK, which is England, Scotland, N.Ireland, and Wales.

 

Don't think I can agree to the one above.

A number of people voted out 'cause they want full control of UK legislation and full control of UK borders.

And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".

 

To me, that is an honest, kinda simplistic but still honest, approach.

Smart approach or not is kinda past the point.

 

 

Simplistic honest approach?  I think you are right except they didn't know the cost of "out".  According to the spin Brexit was going to be easy and the rest was scare mongering.  We are only now learning of the cost and for that we have to rely on May to agree it on our behalf!

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Simplistic honest approach?  I think you are right except they didn't know the cost of "out".  According to the spin Brexit was going to be easy and the rest was scare mongering.  We are only now learning of the cost and for that we have to rely on May to agree it on our behalf!

To be honest it is a simple, honest approach.  From day one, it has been obvious that there has only been one choice- WTO deal, or so called soft Brexit.  Anything in between is to quote Johnson: "2/3 of diddly squat"- in that it neither delivers on the basic ideology of Brexit or secures good economic terms.

 

In fact you cannot counter the logic of the extreme Brexiteers: only hard Brexit delivers on the fundamental reasons why the electorate wanted out. The vote was won and that is that!

 

All to the well and good, but Brexit fails at every reality check.  To my mind then Brexit is simply not doable in a simplistic manner, and just as importantly when we check if it is actually wanted now, we find that it is crucially, fundamentally not wanted in it's severe form.

 

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

36 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".

I highly doubt that. At the time of the referendum, little to no people knew “the cost of the ‘out’”. People were told that everything would be easy and wonderful and voted under that impression. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

36 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

And they are willing to carry the cost of the "out".

I highly doubt that. At the time of the referendum, little to no people knew “the cost of the ‘out’”. People were told that everything would be easy and wonderful and voted under that impression. 

[mommysboy]

11 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

I highly doubt that. At the time of the referendum, little to no people knew “the cost of the ‘out’”. People were told that everything would be easy and wonderful and voted under that impression. 

Largely driven by the notion of a golden return to free trade with the rest of the world. As we now, not all is so rosy with the global economy. The WTO is also losing its grip.  The IMF is already issuing storm warnings.

[Srikcir]

35 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Largely driven by the notion of a golden return to free trade with the rest of the world

May has hoped the US would be among its first trade agreements after Brexit. But as we saw with the US in its new USMCA, a US trade agreement that might require UK to get US approval for free trade agreements with any other foreign nations or face termination of a USUK trade agreement. (just realized the possible pronouncement 'you suck'). Trade agreements for post Brexit for UK may not come so quickly nor very advantageous, especially with China who is now Trump's trade nemesis.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

Simplistic honest approach?  I think you are right except they didn't know the cost of "out".  According to the spin Brexit was going to be easy and the rest was scare mongering.  We are only now learning of the cost and for that we have to rely on May to agree it on our behalf!

 

Nobody in their right mind thought it would be easy.

 

IMHO however the crew that is running it from the UK side (as my teachers used to say), could do better and must try harder.

 

The crew from the other side (EU) could have made it easier but again, IMHO, they are firing warning shots across all the other countries and warning them that the EU will make it as hard or harder for them should they want to exit.

 

There seem to be a few minor rebellions that the EU is trying to stamp down such as Poland and its judges, Italy not playing the monetary game nicely, Austria and Hungary refusing to accept the quota for immigrants.

 

I think that the EU commission is starting to fear a loss of control and for their jobs.

 

This is only MY opinion. YMMV.

[dunroaming]

51 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Largely driven by the notion of a golden return to free trade with the rest of the world. As we now, not all is so rosy with the global economy. The WTO is also losing its grip.  The IMF is already issuing storm warnings.

Not sure that was the driving force behind voting Brexit.  I think immigration and getting back so called "sovereignty" were the main motivators.  And yes people were told that the EU would always want to do a trade deal with us because they need us more than we need them.

[Srikcir]

10 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Austria and Hungary refusing to accept the quota for immigrants. 

• Austria plans to use its upcoming presidency of the European Union this year to shift the bloc’s focus from resettling refugees within the EU towards keeping further waves of migrants outside the bloc’s external borders, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said. https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/austria-plans-to-put-immigration-and-borders-at-heart-of-eu-presidency/

Working out issues within the EU establishment.

• Despite the government’s xenophobic anti-immigration propaganda of last year, Hungary secretly accepted 1,300 refugees in 2017. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s talk about "Muslim invaders" is just political language and although it “might sound a bit hard for the Western ear,” in Hungary it is “not all that striking.”
• the quota agreement only requires EU Member States to process asylum applications in proportion to a respective country’s population and economic strength (which is 1,294 procedures in Hungary’s case). In theory, Hungary could reject all 1,294 asylum applications and still fulfill the quota’s requirements.

https://budapestbeacon.com/hungary-secretly-accepted-1300-refugees-2017/

Working out the issues.