UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[My Thai Life]

5 hours ago, mommysboy said:

It's the Independent's Final Say Brexit demo next week! Fingers crossed for the weather.  Anyone going?

I doubt any of the remainers on this forum are sufficiently motivated. Armchair theorists by and large.

[My Thai Life]

14 hours ago, sandyf said:

The last sentence is not entirely true either.

Post brexit, as a third country companies exporting to the EU where the product requires CE marking will be required to have representation within the EU. Either there own office or an agent, something not currently required but another brexit barrier to trade.

Not true. I have already posted the facts on this - 2 or 3 weeks ago. Certification is the responsibility of the organisation that introduces the product to the EU market, not of the producer.

 

There is absolutely no need for a company exporting to the EU to set up an office in the EU. Suggesting otherwise is a complete misunderstanding of the basics of international trade.

[My Thai Life]

11 hours ago, kwilco said:

Many people think they will be able to buy stuff around the world. heaper outside Brexit - this is of course nonsense - the EU has a buying power well over that of a single nation and also has say in quality control....

Actually the EU sets tariffs for imports on a political basis, not on a "buying power" basis. These tariffs are artificially high in certain sectors, particularly agriculture, to protect inefficient EU practices - starting with French farmers.

 

I've posted the EU import tariff schedule before, and have discussed this several times on this forum. From memory the average EU tariff is 17% above the international average for food.

 

In layman's terms, food imports from non-EU countries are 17% more expensive because of EU regulations, and you are paying for that.

[brewsterbudgen]

Expect the unexpected. Who knows.
 
If I had to list in order of likelihood:
 
Brexit deal voted down.
No confidence vote and general election. 
Scottish devolution. 
A Labour Government and a referendum on the deal 
Irish devolution. 
The Conservative party splits in two.
 
 

All good outcomes for me! Maybe there is some good that will come from this mess.

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[My Thai Life]

12 hours ago, Orac said:

When someone selects specific products ie. roasted coffee and then further narrows it down by specifying advanced economies which generally grow very little coffee then it is rather obvious they are cherry picking so as to ignore the EBA and other FTA agreements in place that remove these tariffs on the very countries that need that access to EU markets.

It's well documented that the EU's dumping of highly subsidised agricultural produce on developing nations has put farmers out of business in many developing countries, and is actually a contributory factor in fuelling the migrant crisis. I discussed this topic at some length about 6 weeks ago and posted numerous links if you are really interested in the topic.

[Grouse]

7 hours ago, tebee said:

EFTA/EEA + CU is not possible - they have their own customs deals which are not compatible with the EU CU

 

So we'd need our own custom solution - again we run into time problems 

We have a two year transition to sort out the details. During that time we retain membership conditions 

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, mommysboy said:

"Own your own sXXX!"

 

I can't help thing NF's dedication to the cause is somewhat questionable given he scuttled off when the dirty deed was done.  Still, he puts on a show- beats panto anytime.  He makes some valid points though.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1030984/Brexit-news-update-Nigel-Farage-Alastair-Campbell-Theresa-May-latest

 

 

I read NF as National Front! What a coincidence!

[Orac]

It's well documented that the EU's dumping of highly subsidised agricultural produce on developing nations has put farmers out of business in many developing countries, and is actually a contributory factor in fuelling the migrant crisis. I discussed this topic at some length about 6 weeks ago and posted numerous links if you are really interested in the topic.

Which has nothing to do with tariffs into the EU that was the point I was responding to.


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[Grouse]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

Actually the EU sets tariffs for imports on a political basis, not on a "buying power" basis. These tariffs are artificially high in certain sectors, particularly agriculture, to protect inefficient EU practices - starting with French farmers.

 

I've posted the EU import tariff schedule before, and have discussed this several times on this forum. From memory the average EU tariff is 17% above the international average for food.

 

In layman's terms, food imports from non-EU countries are 17% more expensive because of EU regulations, and you are paying for that.

I see NOTHING wrong with protecting European farmers and standards. I will happily pay 17% more for meat which has been humanely reared, is not full of hormones and that gives a livelihood to our farmers who are stewards of our countryside. If you find EU food expensive, eat a little less meat and get an allotment

[Grouse]

59 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

It's well documented that the EU's dumping of highly subsidised agricultural produce on developing nations has put farmers out of business in many developing countries, and is actually a contributory factor in fuelling the migrant crisis. I discussed this topic at some length about 6 weeks ago and posted numerous links if you are really interested in the topic.

I missed that. Kindly repost the most relevant links

[My Thai Life]

16 minutes ago, Orac said:

Which has nothing to do with tariffs into the EU that was the point I was responding to.

Your point was about the EU allowing access to developing countries, as if the EU was a beneficent big brother. Nothing could be further from the truth - the EU is a bullying protectionist cartel.

 

If you want to take that one particular point in isolation from EU trade policy you're welcome to, but it won't provide you with any meaningful big picture analysis.

 

But if you really want to argue that particular point: agricultural tariffs into the EU are on average 17% higher than world agricultural tariffs. This point has been made repeatedly, and I backed it up by posting the EU tariff schedule a few weeks ago.

[My Thai Life]

18 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I see NOTHING wrong with protecting European farmers and standards. I will happily pay 17% more for meat which has been humanely reared, is not full of hormones and that gives a livelihood to our farmers who are stewards of our countryside. If you find EU food expensive, eat a little less meat and get an allotment

I guess one day you will actually discuss something rather than just making unsupported assertions and personal insults. EU CAP policy creates import tariffs of an average of 17% - as demonstrated by the EU tariff schedule that I posted a few weeks back.  This isn't the first time you've asserted that the EU is a good environmental steward. Utter nonsense - you obviously missed this post.

 

The one good thing about Brexit? Leaving the EU’s disgraceful farming system

 

One or two posters have said how great the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy is for protecting the environment. As usual it was just a bit of unsubstantiated emotionalism. Here’s something a bit more substantial about how terrible the CAP is protecting the environment (from The Guardian no less). Add to this Merkel's collusion over the German car makers’ emissions scam and see what a great job the EU isn't doing in this area.

 

 

“This is the farm subsidy system that spends €50bn (£44bn) a year on achieving none of its objectives. It is among the most powerful drivers of environmental destruction in the northern hemisphere. Because payments are made only for land that’s in “agricultural condition”, the system creates a perverse incentive to clear wildlife habitats, even in places unsuitable for farming, to produce the empty ground that qualifies for public money. These payments have led to the destruction of hundreds of thousands of hectares of magnificent wild placesacross Europe.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-leaving-eu-farming-agriculture

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Orac]

I missed that. Kindly repost the most relevant links

If I remember correctly it was an article that was from over 10 years ago so before the EU set export subsidies on agricultural products to Africa to zero in 2009 and then banned them altogether in 2014.

The deals with the developing countries in Africa, Carribbean and Pacific are asymmetrical in that they are still allowed to apply tariffs on goods from EU to protect their own producers even though EU gives them zero or reduced tariff access to EU. The common argument used about subsidies putting local producers out of business is over milk powder where African countries have deliberately set their tariffs to zero as they see it as a necessity where nutritional needs are not being met locally - this is used to argue that the EU is putting dairy farmers out of business but not strictly true as other dairy products do have tariffs applied.


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[melvinmelvin]

5 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Your point was about the EU allowing access to developing countries, as if the EU was a beneficent big brother. Nothing could be further from the truth - the EU is a bullying protectionist cartel.

 

If you want to take that one particular point in isolation from EU trade policy you're welcome to, but it won't provide you with any meaningful big picture analysis.

 

But if you really want to argue that particular point: agricultural tariffs into the EU are on average 17% higher than world agricultural tariffs. This point has been made repeatedly, and I backed it up by posting the EU tariff schedule a few weeks ago.

Not only EU, but several developed countries are also in that business. And not only agric. products also marine products.

 

Its more interesting to look at what finds place/goes on BEFORE fiscal barriers are raised or food dumped.

 

Several countries are engaged in eg development aid in Africa.

Over many years they spend zillions of money on teaching niggers to farm efficiently,

with it goes education, equipment, irrigation knowledge you name it. Lots and lots of experts involved in this.

 

Finally, when niggers in Africa have got the hang of it, what do they meet?

Home market drowned in surplus carrots from Europe to give away prices or fiscal barriers in Europe which

makes export futile.

 

modern development aid

 

[My Thai Life]

9 minutes ago, Orac said:

If I remember correctly it was an article that was from over 10 years ago so before the EU set export subsidies on agricultural products to Africa to zero in 2009 and then banned them altogether in 2014.

Eh? This isn't about export subsidies whatsoever. It's about production subsidies. The CAP consumes 40% the EU budget, contributes 2% of GDP (from memory). This is all subsidy. 

 

And the article about EU dumping was from August 2018.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Orac]

Your point was about the EU allowing access to developing countries, as if the EU was a beneficent big brother. Nothing could be further from the truth - the EU is a bullying protectionist cartel.
 
If you want to take that one particular point in isolation from EU trade policy you're welcome to, but it won't provide you with any meaningful big picture analysis.
 
But if you really want to argue that particular point: agricultural tariffs into the EU are on average 17% higher than world agricultural tariffs. This point has been made repeatedly, and I backed it up by posting the EU tariff schedule a few weeks ago.

Yet again you are ignoring the fact that these developing nations have either zero or reduced rate tariff access to the EU for agricultural products so the average of 17%, which I would be interested in seeing a source for, doesn’t apply to them anyway.

Not sure where you posted the EU tariff schedule - I used to own a set and it was three massive folders. They are all online now anyway here

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections?country=ID&day=12&month=10&year=2018



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[Orac]

Eh? This isn't about export subsidies whatsoever. It's about production subsidies. The CAP consumes 40% the EU budget, contributes 2% of GDP (from memory). This is all subsidy. 
 
And the article about EU dumping was from August 2018.

Must have missed the article about dumping - do you have a link for it?

The Aug 2018 article you just posted doesn’t go into dumping but concentrated on set-aside or whatever they call it now where subsidies pay for nothing to be grown so not going to impact on developing nation producers.


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[Srikcir]

9 minutes ago, Grouse said:

I missed that. Kindly repost the most relevant links

Don't know if these are relevant or credible to support negative effects of EU agricultural dumping - just a quick Google search:

https://www.iatp.org/documents/stop-the-dumping-how-eu-agricultural-subsidies-are-damaging-livelihoods-in-the-developin-0

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/eu-subsidies-deny-africas-farmers-of-their-livelihood-478419.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2005/jun/19/g8.hearafrica051

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09638199.2015.1069884?src=recsys&journalCode=rjte20

However, the issue of perceived dumping cannot be viewed in isolation. EU agricultural exports are made in conjunction with developing nation imports.  These trade deals are also typically attended with food quality regulations that typically is greatly needed by developing nations for its own domestic food supply.

There can be some long term beneficial effects of EU 'dumping' of low value agricultural products. The foreign developing nation can better utilized its lands to grow higher value agricultural products for EU export while using the security of cheap basic EU agricultural imports to sustain its population.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280600752_An_updated_look_at_the_impact_of_the_EU's_Common_Agricultural_Policy_on_developing_countries

Balancing EU agricultural exports and foreign agricultural impacts isn't just about dollar value.

"The CAP must not be considered in isolation but coordinated with trade, environmental and development policies. Only by across-sector policy approach will it be possible to respond to the challenge of developing a more sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. In addition,

continuous innovation in the agricultural sector is crucial to address the challenges of agriculture in areas such as climate change, resource scarcity and long -term sustainability."

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/603862/EXPO_STU(2018)603862_EN.pdf

So there needs to be a continuous review of EU trade export policies but must be done in a broad trade context. Focusing just on perceived or real EU 'dumping' to developing nations doesn't address or solve any issue of perceived or real unfair trade practices.

 

[My Thai Life]

26 minutes ago, Orac said:

Yet again you are ignoring the fact that these developing nations have either zero or reduced rate tariff access to the EU for agricultural products so the average of 17%, which I would be interested in seeing a source for, doesn’t apply to them anyway.

I've posted the summary of EU tariffs here before - it's a graphic.

 

The only information I have seen on the "Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP)" which provides favourable access to developing nations relates to some non-agricultural products, which the EU doesn't compete with anyway. If you have specific information on GSP-EU-agricultural imports I'd appreciate it, thanks.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[My Thai Life]

10 minutes ago, Orac said:

Must have missed the article about dumping - do you have a link for it?

The Aug 2018 article you just posted doesn’t go into dumping but concentrated on set-aside or whatever they call it now where subsidies pay for nothing to be grown so not going to impact on developing nation producers.

The article I re-posted just now was from October 2018, not August, if I recall, in response to a different poster, about a different topic. 

 

The August article on dumping was posted about 6 or 8 weeks ago I think. You are free to find it for yourself on the forum history.

[My Thai Life]

This is the graphic I used before for average EU tariffs. I took it a month or two ago from one of the UK "quality" newspapers - I forget which one. 35% tariff on dairy coming in. And then the EU dumps excess dairy, produced unnecessarily by greedy EU farmers because of the massive subsidies, onto Africa, putting African farmers out of business, and thereby fuelling the migrant crisis. All this has been said before with supporting references. Now I really must get on with the rest of my day. Cheers all.

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Orac]

26 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I've posted the summary of EU tariffs here before - it's a graphic.

 

The only information I have seen on the "Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP)" which provides favourable access to developing nations relates to some non-agricultural products, which the EU doesn't compete with anyway. If you have specific information on GSP-EU-agricultural imports I'd appreciate it, thanks.

 

The EU GSP schedule from 2001 included the EBA (Everything But Arms) initiative which has developed into several Economic Partnership Agreements removing tariffs from virtually all products into EU from these developing countries with the exception of armaments. Useful graphic below showing how this applies to Africa and also some light reading regarding the EPA with West Africa and its effects

 

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/april/tradoc_154422.pdf

 

 

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/35842/eu-remains-main-and-most-open-market-african-food-and-manufactured-products_en

[Orac]

9 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

This is the graphic I used before for average EU tariffs. I took it a month or two ago from one of the UK "quality" newspapers - I forget which one. 35% tariff on dairy coming in. And then the EU dumps excess dairy, produced unnecessarily by greedy EU farmers because of the massive subsidies, onto Africa, putting African farmers out of business, and thereby fuelling the migrant crisis. All this has been said before with supporting references. Now I really must get on with the rest of my day. Cheers all.

 

 

My point is that these are not relevant to the developing countries since they are on zero or reduced tariffs through various preferential agreements.

[sandyf]

53 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Yet again you are ignoring the fact that these developing nations have either zero or reduced rate tariff access to the EU for agricultural products so the average of 17%, which I would be interested in seeing a source for, doesn’t apply to them anyway.

Not sure where you posted the EU tariff schedule - I used to own a set and it was three massive folders. They are all online now anyway here

https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/trade-tariff/sections?country=ID&day=12&month=10&year=2018



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This is where you will find the actual tariff schedule, along with every other country.

http://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx

 

As you say they are massive and only doctored extracts have ever  been posted. It would appear the the leavers have chosen to ignore the fact that the UK has applied to adopt the EU schedule. A decision on that should come out towards the end of this month.

 

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Not true. I have already posted the facts on this - 2 or 3 weeks ago. Certification is the responsibility of the organisation that introduces the product to the EU market, not of the producer.

 

There is absolutely no need for a company exporting to the EU to set up an office in the EU. Suggesting otherwise is a complete misunderstanding of the basics of international trade.

Feel free to make up your own 'facts'.

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, kwilco said:

Many people think they will be able to buy stuff around the world. heaper outside Brexit - this is of course nonsense - the EU has a buying power well over that of a single nation and also has say in quality control....

 

Exactly. There is a very good reason why the EU has not done a trade deal with China, but leavers would prefer to ignore the why.

[Srikcir]

9 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

the EU dumps excess dairy, produced unnecessarily by greedy EU farmers because of the massive subsidies, onto Africa, putting African farmers out of business, and thereby fuelling the migrant crisis.

Migration may be more the result of negligence or deliberate malfeasance of African governments than dumping dairy into Africa.

[Note: The highest milk producing countries in Africa are Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and Sudan. ... Among the top four milk producing countries, only Ethiopia and Kenya are self-sufficient, meaning dairy production meets or exceeds dairy consumption - EU dairy imports save lives?]

 

Most African countries are exporting to the EU on a duty - free or preferential basis.

The EU is Africa's main customer – especially for food and manufactured products. Africa's exports to the EU amounted to more than €116 billion in 2016. Europe is by far Africa's largest export market (35% of Africa's exports), followed by Africa itself (18%), China (11%), the USA (8%) and India (7%).

• The EU is also the main market for African food and manufactured products. Both categories accounted for 51% of Africa's exports to the EU in 2016 (Food and beverages: 16%, Manufactures: 35%) whereas raw materials accounted for 49%.
• Exports of food and manufactured products to the  constantly since 2013, respectively by +23% and +17%.
• Africa's exports of raw materials to the EU  decreased in recent years, due in particular to decrease in oil prices.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

But if you really want to argue that particular point: agricultural tariffs into the EU are on average 17% higher than world agricultural tariffs. This point has been made repeatedly, and I backed it up by posting the EU tariff schedule a few weeks ago.

Does this 17% mean that the food tarifs are 17 percentage units higher or 17% higher?

 

Let's assume that average tariffs are 4%. Are EU's tariffs 21% or 4%*1.17 = 4.68%?

 

 

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, kwilco said:

For those who have trouble believing that UK could become a fascist state....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/12/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-had-shades-of-hitler

 

 

So we have no trouble in believing this poop?

[melvinmelvin]

There is a pot (piece of text) re Brexit in today's Bangkok Post.

 

It may appear that the chief DUP chick is aiming for a hard Brexit.

 

Last year's snap election in order to bolster Tory, cabinet and PM-ego was probably not a good investment.