UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[aright]

9 minutes ago, tebee said:

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/g248_e.doc

Do me a favour. The report was written before the Common Agricultural Policy and continues to harp on about ambition ……..so far imo unrealised. The report was also written by the WTO who have an obligation to get on globally . Anything more independent up to date and relevant?

There are some interesting 2020 ambitions however.

Pages 7 & 8  Do you want to discuss the outcomes?   

 

[Grouse]

20 minutes ago, tebee said:

Yes, I agree in normal circumstances it should, but much of economics and the Nash equilibrium in particular, assume the the participants  are rational players. With the current gov and the DUP I don't think we can assume this.

I think the DUP, they who cut off their eyelids so they wouldn't blink first, will be kicked into touch

 

A similar fate awaits the hard right Tory brexteers.

 

I also think Corbyn's prevarication is starting to sicken everyone.

 

No, Norway+ is the outcome that gives Equilibrium even though remains is obviously the optimum outcome.

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by Grouse

[aright]

1 hour ago, Orac said:

 

Bizarre

 

i have no problem specifically with what Andrew Mitchell says since he makes no mention of Africa or developing countries and it is just a vague reference to changing trading patterns globally with less protectionism which is exactly my point regarding EU removing barriers to African imports.

 

My specific problem with the Sam Akaki letter was his line the EU imposed stiff tariffs on African agricultural imports to the EU but, oddly, this line has now disappeared from your post along with the link that originally contained it.

 

The previous links you provided I pointed out either were over 15 years old and out of date or did not refer to developing markets which is what we were discussing.

 

I am sorry you couldn’t understand the map as I thought it was the simplest way of demonstrating the various new deals in place to remove tariffs from developing countries in Africa showing which preference agreement were applicable for each - if you want the full details they are here but, trust me the map is simpler.

 

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1539523719649&uri=CELEX:32012R0978

 

As for me providing some link saying EU trading policy is held in high regard, can’t say I have ever seen one but, there again, it is not a claim I have ever made.

Thanks for the link unfortunately I could find no reference to a green map in there. The map is only significant if I can see and perhaps question the supporting evidence.

 

If you don't think or can't find a link holding EU policy in high regard you certainly spend time defending it.

 

We have reached impasse I have shown you various links on EU trade which you don't accept and you have shown me a green map which purportedly comes from a site specialising in EU Law which I can't find .

I'm out of here!  

 

A 2016 link

“Far from levelling the playing field the EU reinforces the structural inequalities that favour big businesses and powerful countries at the expense of developing nations.”

James Cleverly

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/26/eu-is-responsible-for-using-taxpayers-money-to-undercut-african/

[Orac]

29 minutes ago, aright said:

Thanks for the link unfortunately I could find no reference to a green map in there. The map is only significant if I can see and perhaps question the supporting evidence.

 

If you don't think or can't find a link holding EU policy in high regard you certainly spend time defending it.

 

We have reached impasse I have shown you various links on EU trade which you don't accept and you have shown me a green map which purportedly comes from a site specialising in EU Law which I can't find .

I'm out of here!  

 

A 2016 link

“Far from levelling the playing field the EU reinforces the structural inequalities that favour big businesses and powerful countries at the expense of developing nations.”

James Cleverly

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/26/eu-is-responsible-for-using-taxpayers-money-to-undercut-african/

 

Apologies for not linking to the map there - it comes from here which is a link I posted earlier:

 

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2017/november/tradoc_156399.pdf

 

Plenty more details in there about EBA and tariff free access for African countries as well.

 

There is also a better version of the map below which is easier to read.

 

Still not interested in your request for your link since this is not a claim I have made or need to support.

 

The Cleverly article is an interesting one but clearly a political perspective about someone identified as eurosceptic and refers back to what has been happening for decades but makes no mention of the new agreements in the link above. The other oddity in the article is:

 

“Mr Cleverly, whose mother is from Sierra Leone, will say these heavily subsidised surpluses "completely distort African and other markets" and "undercut the prices of domestically produced food", such as coffee and chocolate.”

 

The odd thing being that coffee and cocoa for chocolate are not really produced in the EU  but often came from these very developing countries. The largest African producer of coffee is Ethiopia and it can export that to the EU free of duty under the GSP scheme. The worlds largest producer of cocoa is Ivory Coast and under their EPA agreement with the EU they can export both this and chocolate free of duty to the EU so I find it difficult to understand how the EU is able to undercut their domestic prices if they produce this stuff in the first place.

 

 

[mommysboy]

8 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Actually the option you refer to (no deal) is quite possibly the most likely one at present. And it may be the best in the long term. Do you read the economists who say it is? Or do you only read stuff that reflects your prejudices (the aptly-titled "echo chamber")?

 

The referendum was a simple in-out vote. The UK voted out.

 

As I've said many times, I'm neutral in this discussion. But trying to overthrow a democratic vote will create far more long-lasting damage than a hard exit; and trying to overthrow the referendum result is fundamentally undemocratic, no matter how people try to justify it.

 

Of all the remain posters, you seem to be (in general) the most polite and civilised and informed, but also the most worried. Given your business situation I can understand this. Things always change in business, as you know I'm sure.

'The referendum was a simple in-out vote. The UK voted out.'

 

Read literally I suppose it's difficult to argue against that.  In all other respects it is rather intellectually sterile.  Given you are probably the most erudite poster on this board, I must select the following Emoji:????

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, tebee said:

Yes i'm quite happy to accept that no deal is the most most likely outcome at present. I'm still sad about it.

 

On the other hand I do wish you would stop trying spread such revisionist craptrap about what people voted for. Exactly 0% of the population ticked the "chaotic no deal, because our government is to stupid/incompetent to decide what we want" option on the ballot paper.

 

So why should something no one voted for be the favoured option over what 48% voted for ?

 

Overthrow is a very emotive word. But if you look round a goodly number of referendums have been ignored, revised or recast recently. Most pertinent is the Swiss one, where given a choice of economic suicide or ignoring a referendum on FOM,   they chose the later - I don't see Swiss democracy disintegrating because of this ?      

Yes, a goodly number of referendums have been ignored, revised or recast recently.....by the great EU!  

[mommysboy]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

I think the DUP, they who cut off their eyelids so they wouldn't blink first, will be kicked into touch

 

A similar fate awaits the hard right Tory brexteers.

 

I also think Corbyn's prevarication is starting to sicken everyone.

 

No, Norway+ is the outcome that gives Equilibrium even though remains is obviously the optimum outcome.

 

'Corbyn's prevarication is starting to sicken everyone.'  Labour has set out it's stall clearly. How can it respond to something which has not yet been decided?  When the deal is known I dare say he'll have a few words to say.

 

Losing the support of Hard right and DUP, would mean the Government would be in real danger of being voted down. However, this may be counterbalanced by Labour MP's in favour of a deal over no deal.

 

 

[nauseus]

10 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

'The referendum was a simple in-out vote. The UK voted out.'

 

Read literally I suppose it's difficult to argue against that.  In all other respects it is rather intellectually sterile.  Given you are probably the most erudite poster on this board, I must select the following Emoji:????

I suppose if the vote had been to remain then that would have been intellectually fertile? ????

[nauseus]

25 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Apologies for not linking to the map there - it comes from here which is a link I posted earlier:

 

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2017/november/tradoc_156399.pdf

 

Plenty more details in there about EBA and tariff free access for African countries as well.

 

There is also a better version of the map below which is easier to read.

 

Still not interested in your request for your link since this is not a claim I have made or need to support.

 

The Cleverly article is an interesting one but clearly a political perspective about someone identified as eurosceptic and refers back to what has been happening for decades but makes no mention of the new agreements in the link above. The other oddity in the article is:

 

“Mr Cleverly, whose mother is from Sierra Leone, will say these heavily subsidised surpluses "completely distort African and other markets" and "undercut the prices of domestically produced food", such as coffee and chocolate.”

 

The odd thing being that coffee and cocoa for chocolate are not really produced in the EU  but often came from these very developing countries. The largest African producer of coffee is Ethiopia and it can export that to the EU free of duty under the GSP scheme. The worlds largest producer of cocoa is Ivory Coast and under their EPA agreement with the EU they can export both this and chocolate free of duty to the EU so I find it difficult to understand how the EU is able to undercut their domestic prices if they produce this stuff in the first place.

 

 

Lots of different colours there, looks quite a mess.

[Orac]

Lots of different colours there, looks quite a mess.

Tough audience! First one was too green to be understood and now the new one is too colourful.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

No we don't. The EU is not a nation. Nations have borders, supranational bureaucracies don't. Just like you can't be a citizen of the EU. If you were a citizen of the EU, you would still be a citizen of the EU after the UK leaves (assuming you are actually British to begin with).

 

The only reason the EU has any say in the Irish border at all is because May has bought the line that a backstop is necessary. It isn't. The reasons May has done this, and by doing so has reneged on her GE manifesto and Lancaster House pledges, are not clear, though half a dozen reasons have been suggested.

If you consider the EU as a garden...............then it could have borders of sorts.

[mommysboy]

13 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Lots of different colours there, looks quite a mess.

It's called a map!  They do tend to be a bit colourful. Mono vision?????

Edited October 14, 2018 by mommysboy

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

Tough audience! First one was too green to be understood and now the new one is too colourful.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

Sorry, I meant to say it's an understandable mess.

[nauseus]

1 minute ago, mommysboy said:

It's called a map!  They do tend to be a bit colourful. Mono vision?

I just love colourful stuff. But there should be more Shanghai scarlet!

[Orac]

Sorry, I meant to say it's an understandable mess.

Not really - there are many long standing agreements/preferences such as the original GSP/LDDC ones that have been around for decades along with newer EPAs and FTAs that have needed to fit round them. You don’t honestly believe that trade deals are easy do you?


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Not really - there are many long standing agreements/preferences such as the original GSP/LDDC ones that have been around for decades along with newer EPAs and FTAs that have needed to fit round them. You don’t honestly believe that trade deals are easy do you?


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

Ooh noo. Not easy.

[tebee]

4 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

No we don't. The EU is not a nation. Nations have borders, supranational bureaucracies don't. Just like you can't be a citizen of the EU. If you were a citizen of the EU, you would still be a citizen of the EU after the UK leaves (assuming you are actually British to begin with).

 

The only reason the EU has any say in the Irish border at all is because May has bought the line that a backstop is necessary. It isn't. The reasons May has done this, and by doing so has reneged on her GE manifesto and Lancaster House pledges, are not clear, though half a dozen reasons have been suggested.

The EU does have borders which it controls -albeit indirectly - the customs union, the single market and the Schengen area for starts - it's change of EU law that occurs when when  cross the edges of these and the EU that controls who and what may pass them.  

[Patriot1066]

On 8/10/2018 at 12:34 AM, Rally123 said:

The people made their decision. Remoaner clutching at straws again? 

 

On 8/10/2018 at 12:55 AM, Bluespunk said:

Ha ha ha, love the brexiteers claiming the result of a democratic vote, means you can never have another vote on the issue. 

 

Why would you deny the people a vote on what brexit ultimately looks like?

 

On 8/10/2018 at 1:10 AM, Bluespunk said:

Never said they didn’t. 

 

Just don't see why there cannot be a vote once there is a final brexit deal and all it’s consequences are clear. 

 

Brexit/no brexit, not my right to choose. I don’t live in the U.K. anymore.

 

However the authoritarian, undemocractic, “no brexit votes ever again” attitude of some brexiteers does cause me concern

 

On 8/10/2018 at 2:14 AM, Bluespunk said:

The people should have the right to vote on any final deal. 

 

The stupid political class should have done what we voted for and started getting out the day after the referendum vote as they promised. You can't vote on the final deal as we either accept it or leave wiithout a deal then join a less political trading group which the Japanese said we would be welcome in.

 

The 'people's vote' second referendum in fact is nothing more than a ploy for the likes of George Soros Branson the failed Geldof and other billionaires to keep us tied to the undemocratic anti British block. The EU got Ireland to vote 3 times before they came to the 'correct answer'. If remoaners won will any additional vote we go for best of three?

 

They will try to cripple us as if they don't get a deal as they will owe us 7 billion a year in tariffs. As to their threats of no planes flying Spain economy would crash so would Portugal and we control most of the routes to the US so they would be screwed getting anywhere West, plus if we closed the 'land bridge' ( England) the Southern Irish economy would collapse over night as they couldn't get their produce to the EU quick enough. We need more Churchill and less Chamberlain in capitulation.

 

[Bluespunk]

1 minute ago, Patriot1066 said:

 

 

 

 

The stupid political class should have done what we voted for and started getting out the day after the referendum vote as they promised. You can't vote on the final deal as we either accept it or leave wiithout a deal then join a less political trading group which the Japanese said we would be welcome in.

 

The 'people's vote' second referendum in fact is nothing more than a ploy for the likes of George Soros Branson the failed Geldof and other billionaires to keep us tied to the undemocratic anti British block. The EU got Ireland to vote 3 times before they came to the 'correct answer'. If remoaners won will any additional vote we go for best of three?

 

They will try to cripple us as if they don't get a deal as they will owe us 7 billion a year in tariffs. As to their threats of no planes flying Spain economy would crash so would Portugal and we control most of the routes to the US so they would be screwed getting anywhere West, plus if we closed the 'land bridge' ( England) the Southern Irish economy would collapse over night as they couldn't get their produce to the EU quick enough. We need more Churchill and less Chamberlain in capitulation.

 

If people want another vote they have every right to call for one. 

 

To refuse this right is anti democratic authoritarianism. 

[Patriot1066]

The Irish border is a non issue, the Guards Irish police and customs regularly carry out inspections ther is a border, and why should we be controlled by the threat of violence if we were to take back our border, how did it work when we joined but Ireland wasn't a member? It's a non issue!! Conveniently accepted by the political EU loving class. Try living in my area full of EU citizens mosT from my experience claiming benefits, virtually no English spoken, it feels like ethnic cleansing by our globalist leaders.

[Patriot1066]

4 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

If people want another vote they have every right to call for one. 

 

To refuse this right is anti democratic authoritarianism. 

How many votes do you suggest we have ? If I don't like the result of the next one is it democratic to refuse that.

 

[Bluespunk]

1 minute ago, Patriot1066 said:

How many votes do you suggest we have ? If I don't like the result of the next one is it democratic to refuse that.

 

I haven’t called for a vote at any time. 

 

I just do not support the anti democratic thinking of those who would deny others their right to campaign for a vote. 

[aright]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

Sorry, I meant to say it's an understandable mess.

Agree! The green map was in a report written by the EU Commission……...Hope you didn't fall off your bar stool.

[adammike]

On 10/13/2018 at 2:45 AM, Grouse said:

As I have stated before, there will be no overall winners. There will be a Nash Equilibrium with both sides being somewhat harmed. There will NOT be a no deal outcome though. End result will be a modification of the Norway solution.

 

Best solution, however, would be to stop Brexit completely retaining all exiting rebates and opt outs and start afresh to modify the entire EU system. 

I have started to feel there is a change in the air ,the brexiteers are being called out even by some of the brexit supporting media, not the daily telegraph of course or the daily express (that rag seems to exist in some parallel universe so please don't put up links from it) .There are even the no brexit option being written as a possibility! One thing I saw was the EU may say yes the UK can stay but lose the rebate and other opt outs,It's gonna be a long hard winter for some.

[William C F Pierce]

BREXIT could be over before Christmas. A number of crowdfunded cases pending may block it. A number of Expats in Europe were denied voting in the referendum (3 million in total). This case is going on before the European Court of Justice as the UK broke European Law by denying their rights under European Law that applies to all EU citizens. Another case going before the UK Supreme Court is the UK Government acted in contempt of court over Miller Article 50 case. Article 50 is in 3 parts. Article 50 (1) is the discussion in Parliament and voting to leave (this was not done). Article 50 (2) the Notice of Withdrawal to the EU. This was voted on and passed, but it is Invalid because Article 50 (1) has not been carried out. Article 50 (3) is the UK leaves on the 29 March 2019 with or without a deal only if Article 50 (1) & (2) have been met. Of course, the BrexMoaners won't like this. A Democracy is not a Democracy unless people have a right to change their minds. As many now have done. If the court cases are won then the Referendum will have to be run again and include those who were denied their legal rights. Plus the many new young voters who want to remain in support of their own future. Remainers are not moaning their working hard using real legal Democracy to get the country back to common sense. If Brexiteers think 23 July 2016 can't be changed, then neither can the original Referendum vote of 1975 be change. Thus making the current episode again invalid.

[tebee]

So, we are in the middle of very delicate time limited negotiations, what does the Tory party do? - it decides to implode !

 

 

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

[tebee]

[kwilco]

Profiteers don't seem to know or probably dont even care about the cultural benefits of EU mmembership.

Britain will be a "cultural jail" as a result of Brexit.....

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-orchestra/brexit-drives-eu-youth-orchestra-from-london-to-italy-idUSKBN1CG1MK

 

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, aright said:

Agree! The green map was in a report written by the EU Commission……...Hope you didn't fall off your bar stool.

Yet another example of the messenger being attacked rather than the message.

[Rally123]

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

If people want another vote they have every right to call for one. 

What, until they get the result they want?

 

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

I just do not support the anti democratic thinking of those who would deny others their right to campaign for a vote. 

Having a second vote because yous didn't win the first vote isn't really democratic is it? My side didn't win in the referendum in the early 70's but did we bitch until we got a second vote? Nah, we just  got on with what the democratic voters wanted. Job done.

The EU is not democratic but you don't seem to be calling for change on how they elect their leaders.