UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[tebee]

Politicians have not been honest about Brexit.

 

All the paths available at this point will damage us. They will damage the poorest most. 

But nobody has been honest. They are still promising great things just over the horizon.

 

 

To weather the kind of pain that is coming, the government need people to believe in them. Enough people believed austerity was necessary - including a fair number who were hard hit - for them to survive.

 

 

But, many people don't  believe in Brexit. If people have changed their mind before we even start.  Then, boy, a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

 

Some MPs are  fond of telling us we must back Chequers because stopping Brexit would lead to unrest and the rise of the far right. 

I rather fear he may have the right fear, but the wrong path to avoiding 

[kwilco]

Looks like the democracy has changed its mind.....something they are entitled to do.

https://www.channel4.com/news/major-new-brexit-poll-shows-voters-swinging-towards-remain?fbclid=IwAR0t4QZaWLFVdvXIcYXCWqvr8AiLJK4I6U7hHYQMXIKxeS5y53je-HabJ6c

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Looks like the democracy has changed its mind.....something they are entitled to do.

https://www.channel4.com/news/major-new-brexit-poll-shows-voters-swinging-towards-remain?fbclid=IwAR0t4QZaWLFVdvXIcYXCWqvr8AiLJK4I6U7hHYQMXIKxeS5y53je-HabJ6c

Fake news from the Lefties TV Channel they only polled people online so all the people that don't have internet access were just ignored

[My Thai Life]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

Politicians have not been honest about Brexit.

 

All the paths available at this point will damage us.

Most politicians started pretty ignorant about Brexit, many still are! The vast majority of politicians are not economists or specialists in the arcane bureaucracy of the EU. The same goes for journalists.

 

The 2nd point is another over-generalised assertion. Given that we don't know what policies will be in place 2, 5, 10, 15 years after the UK leaves the EU, it's not possible to forecast accurately the long-term effects. You also need to bear in mind that many analysts are predicting hard times ahead for the EU - politically and economcally - so if you wish to get the full picture you need to plot the various scenarios for the UK against the various scenarios for the EU. Obviously this is a huge endeavour!

 

True, most, but not all, economic forecasts show a hit on UK GDP - albeit a not so dramatic hit, and in line with usual GDP fluctuations anyway. Furthermore, this may be a comparatively positive "hit" when compared to a potentially worse downturn for the EU. I'm fortunate to have had a lot of training in economics and forecasting, and all of the forecasts I have seen are based on such a high degree of simplification and often strange assumptions that I don't have a lot of faith in any of them. But this is the nature of forecasting - it's just illustrative not predictive in a deterministic sense.

 

Many people would argue that the gradual erosion of sovereignty is damaging. Obviously this doesn't bother you, but failing to take this into your considerations weakens your position in my view.

 

Have a lovely day in Brittany!

[Jip99]

13 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Most politicians started pretty ignorant about Brexit, many still are! The vast majority of politicians are not economists or specialists in the arcane bureaucracy of the EU. The same goes for journalists.

 

The 2nd point is another over-generalised assertion. Given that we don't know what policies will be in place 2, 5, 10, 15 years after the UK leaves the EU, it's not possible to forecast accurately the long-term effects. You also need to bear in mind that many analysts are predicting hard times ahead for the EU - politically and economcally - so if you wish to get the full picture you need to plot the various scenarios for the UK against the various scenarios for the EU. Obviously this is a huge endeavour!

 

True, most, but not all, economic forecasts show a hit on UK GDP - albeit a not so dramatic hit, and in line with usual GDP fluctuations anyway. Furthermore, this may be a comparatively positive "hit" when compared to a potentially worse downturn for the EU. I'm fortunate to have had a lot of training in economics and forecasting, and all of the forecasts I have seen are based on such a high degree of simplification and often strange assumptions that I don't have a lot of faith in any of them. But this is the nature of forecasting - it's just illustrative not predictive in a deterministic sense.

 

Many people would argue that the gradual erosion of sovereignty is damaging. Obviously this doesn't bother you, but failing to take this into your considerations weakens your position in my view.

 

Have a lovely day in Brittany!

 

 

Well said.

 

That is why the vote was simply "In or Out".

 

A picture of either long-term scenario was always going to be foggy - and influenced by individual agenda.

 

Only the politicians can determine the outcome.

[rixalex]

Politicians have not been honest about Brexit.
 
All the paths available at this point will damage us. They will damage the poorest most. 
But nobody has been honest. They are still promising great things just over the horizon.

A remainer trying to appeal to the poor working classes to support staying in the EU, by telling them that they will be hit the most if we leave, is a bit rich, since the reason why many of them voted to leave is because they were the ones bearing the brunt of being in the EU.

Maybe if the EU and its supporters had listened to their issues in the first place, instead of dismissing them as ignorant bigots, as they still do even now, we wouldn't be where we are today.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Fake news from the Lefties TV Channel they only polled people online so all the people that don't have internet access were just ignored

The important thing is the trend and that is moving against Brexit.

 

[SheungWan]

Just now, rixalex said:

A remainer trying to appeal to the poor working classes to support staying in the EU, by telling them that they will be hit the most if we leave, is a bit rich, since the reason why many of them voted to leave is because they were the ones bearing the brunt of being in the EU.
Maybe if the EU and its supporters had listened to their issues in the first place, instead of dismissing them as ignorant bigots, as they still do even now, we wouldn't be where we are today.

Those here promoting the Hard Brexit cause are certainly bigots, their level of ignorance on a sliding scale.

[vinny41]

4 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The important thing is the trend and that is moving against Brexit.

 

Not really anyone could have predicted the results before the program was broadcast

Channel 4 wouldn't have broadcast the show is if the majority was to leave

[vogie]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

Those here promoting the Hard Brexit cause are certainly bigots, their level of ignorance on a sliding scale.

You sure? ????????

 

 

[bristolboy]

Just now, vinny41 said:

Not really anyone could have predicted the results before the program was broadcast

Channel 4 wouldn't have broadcast the show is if the majority was to leave

When you don't have reality on your side, resort to counterfactuals.

[vinny41]

4 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

When you don't have reality on your side, resort to counterfactuals.

Not really when you look at the way the questions were asked they were designed to produce a certain answer

As previously stated polls are pointless and for some reason they always produced the results that the sponser(group paying the bill) want. 

[My Thai Life]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

When you don't have reality on your side, resort to counterfactuals.

The reality is that (1) UK voters voted at the referendum to leave the EU (2) in the 2017 General Election both major parties campaigned and committed to honour the referendum result and to take the UK out of the EU (3) neither of the main parties supports a 2nd referendum.

 

When you don't have reality on your side you resort to counterfactuals  (what a horrible Americanism) lies, denial, wishful thinking, and attempts to overthrow democratic decisions.

[nauseus]

11 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

When you don't have reality on your side, resort to counterfactuals.

For a sample of remainer reality please see post 7120. ????

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

3 hours ago, Patriot1066 said:

We area place in London called white collar boxing. I'd love to meet Owen there ????

I know of white collar boxing, never been to a match, but would like to. My brother in law is an ex-Muay Thai instructor and having practiced it myself since 16, I can honestly say I'd like to meet OJ in the ring too. I think I'd almost feel too guilty to smack him one though, he looks like he never hit puberty, poor little lad. Probably among the reasons behind his apparent social angst and his burning political hatreds. ????

Edited November 6, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Well said.

 

That is why the vote was simply "In or Out".

 

A picture of either long-term scenario was always going to be foggy - and influenced by individual agenda.

 

Only the politicians can determine the outcome.

But the UK voters can determine the outcome of the politicians, something that they should keep in mind.

[soleddy]

It must stand as it is.

 

If you have another referendum, then the Brexiteers will moan and want a third one: does it become the Best of Three and then the Best of Five? maybe we should have Five ballots and take the median or mean?

 

I can hear the moaners saying that "we need another vote because we didn't know that all of this would happen". Tough. Cameron announced a future referendum some years ago. Even remainer Teresa said the vote stands.

 

Eddy

 

 

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Not really anyone could have predicted the results before the program was broadcast

Channel 4 wouldn't have broadcast the show is if the majority was to leave

Making things up. On and on.

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Not really when you look at the way the questions were asked they were designed to produce a certain answer

As previously stated polls are pointless and for some reason they always produced the results that the sponser(group paying the bill) want. 

One might almost hope that here was an academic who had written peer-reviewed research papers on bias and accuracy of opinion polls rather than the default uneducated Brexiteer know-nothing.

[SheungWan]

24 minutes ago, soleddy said:

It must stand as it is.

If you have another referendum, then the Brexiteers will moan and want a third one: does it become the Best of Three and then the Best of Five? maybe we should have Five ballots and take the median or mean?

I can hear the moaners saying that "we need another vote because we didn't know that all of this would happen". Tough. Cameron announced a future referendum some years ago. Even remainer Teresa said the vote stands.

Eddy

The first sentence is an argument but without any legal standing. The decision is that of Parliament. However, moving on, in the event of some form of Soft Brexit going through, let's see how many of our Hard Brexiteers here will consider the situation game over.

[rixalex]

The first sentence is an argument but without any legal standing. The decision is that of Parliament. However, moving on, in the event of some form of Soft Brexit going through, let's see how many of our Hard Brexiteers here will consider the situation game over.

The first sentence isn't an argument to do with legalities, it's an argument to do with practicalities, which when supporters of another referendum are faced with, there is no reply for, besides to say something completely off at a tangent like, "there's no legal standing.. the decision is that of parliament".

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Jip99]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

But the UK voters can determine the outcome of the politicians, something that they should keep in mind.

 

 

Indeed Bill; but, frankly, it is not much of a beauty parade!  ????

[whatsupdoc]

Another view on Brexit from outside the UK:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/06/britain-foolish-decline-boris-johnson 

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

2 hours ago, soleddy said:

 

The first sentence is an argument but without any legal standing. The decision is that of Parliament.

Moot point. ????

 

Though I suppose while at some level this has constitutional founding, it must be remembered that this was a special-case referendum, offered to the people (as the Tories' manifesto had promised) by the prime minister of the country who specifically said the following:

 

'The prime minister said he "wanted to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU and then give people the "simple choice" between staying in under those new terms, or leaving the EU altogether." '

 

There was never any discussion regarding anything else or any specific caveat added to the offer of the referendum stipulating that ANY decision reached by the electorate would then need to be ratified and deliberated over by MPs in parliament. This was not part of the deal that was very publicly offered and ensured by the PM on more than one occasion. The disconnected political class simply didn't imagine that the public would actually return a Leave vote. Guess they should have ventured a little further than SW1, eh?

 

This is why, even with the large body of treacherous MPs trying their best through various acts of subterfuge & weaseling to repeal the vote, the Pro-Remain establishment dare not defy the electorate by doing so, as after such a black-and-white --binary-- referendum offer was presented to the people by Cameron, it would be political suicide to attempt to. Hence why both Lab and Con parties are 'committed to delivering Brexit'. ????

 

If those in power wanted to be more specific and detail EXACTLY what they would propose in the event of either Remaining or Leaving they could have done so. They didn't however, so any attempt to de-legitimise the result thereafter is totally illicit and anti-democratic. I have mentioned my own view on what would have been preferable once before - i.e.: electing a Euro-skeptic party with a mandate to leave the EU at a GE (if possible) etc. That is not what happened, and just because you and certain others don't like the outcome it doesn't for a second mean that the referendum is not legitimate. It is.

 

 - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21148282 - 

 

'David Cameron has said the British people must "have their say" on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election.' - the Tories got elected, gave us the referendum and we, as a nation, had our say. End of story. Time to move on.

Edited November 6, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, rixalex said:

 

A remainer trying to appeal to the poor working classes to support staying in the EU, by telling them that they will be hit the most if we leave, is a bit rich, since the reason why many of them voted to leave is because they were the ones bearing the brunt of being in the EU.

Maybe if the EU and its supporters had listened to their issues in the first place, instead of dismissing them as ignorant bigots, as they still do even now, we wouldn't be where we are today.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

It is the poor that always get hit the most, just look at the credit crunch and its aftermath. I do agree that negative economics effects from Brexit are speculative- save for the 2-3% loss of GDP already thought to have occurred.  Protecting the poor is a matter of fiscal policy, something the Government is loathe to do but that's another matter.

[mommysboy]

6 hours ago, SheungWan said:

The important thing is the trend and that is moving against Brexit.

 

But what to do about it? Perhaps, it's a case of too little to late as up to this point growing opposition has not been sufficiently demonstrative.  Large scale marches up and down the length of the country might convince otherwise, but opinion polls only go so far, even if they are accurate. It's likely that at this point the country is Remain, which makes Brexit something of an absurdity- it is happening though.

[Patriot1066]

8 hours ago, tebee said:

Brexit is teaching Britain its true place in the world

Politicians and voters alike have nourished delusions about the nation’s global role

 

https://www.ft.com/content/29468d52-e0e5-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad

 

 

The philosophy of Brexit was that, freed of EU constraints, the UK would take its rightful place in the world. This is indeed what is happening, but alas that place is not as the great power of their imagination. The UK’s place in the world is hardly terrible but, as Mr Johnson learnt during his brief but undistinguished term as foreign secretary, our emissaries no longer bestride summits like Castlereagh.
 

 

 

Let’s put the Great back in Britain MBGA doesn’t quiet work

[Patriot1066]

10 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It is the poor that always get hit the most, just look at the credit crunch and its aftermath. I do agree that negative economics effects from Brexit are speculative- save for the 2-3% loss of GDP already thought to have occurred.  Protecting the poor is a matter of fiscal policy, something the Government is loathe to do but that's another matter.

When we can better control our bordered there will be less to keep as we won’t be feeding the poor of the EU

 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Indeed Bill; but, frankly, it is not much of a beauty parade!  ????

Yes, payback is ok if it was just against the Government but Labour have done little to encourage the Remain cause. Perhaps the public will vent their fury against the establishment with some protest vote.  Maybe SNP could stand in England and pull a coup on Westminster.????

[Patriot1066]

2 hours ago, soleddy said:

It must stand as it is.

 

If you have another referendum, then the Brexiteers will moan and want a third one: does it become the Best of Three and then the Best of Five? maybe we should have Five ballots and take the median or mean?

 

I can hear the moaners saying that "we need another vote because we didn't know that all of this would happen". Tough. Cameron announced a future referendum some years ago. Even remainer Teresa said the vote stands.

 

Eddy

 

 

Agreed well said