UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[Guest]

1 hour ago, aright said:

Have you submitted your number crunching to the Guardian. The only reason I mention it is because they are irrelevant. If you put together  some constitutional and political reality ……….both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn have said there will not be a second referendum...…...to change that would be political suicide.

The politicians who are going to cancel Brexit are going to be celebrated as brave men and women, who were not afraid to do the right thing.

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

6 minutes ago, oilinki said:

The politicians who are going to cancel Brexit are going to be celebrated as brave men and women, who were not afraid to do the right thing.

In which satirical sketch show? Please let me know so I can make a point of avoiding it. ?

[BwindiBoy]

5 hours ago, Stupooey said:

Of course, I never thought of that, it's so obvious. Still not good enough though -you need a 2:1 majority to effect major constitutional changes.

Says who? Like it was when the UK joined a trading bloc, leading to so much more? Nah, Cameron made it clear this referendum was just  straight majority - the fact that he was incompetent is irrelevant; he was elected to act on voters' behalves, isn't that what Remainers keep banging on about as their justification for MPs to decide the final "deal"?! 

[Stupooey]

1 hour ago, BwindiBoy said:

Says who? Like it was when the UK joined a trading bloc, leading to so much more? Nah, Cameron made it clear this referendum was just  straight majority - the fact that he was incompetent is irrelevant; he was elected to act on voters' behalves, isn't that what Remainers keep banging on about as their justification for MPs to decide the final "deal"?! 

Says who? Grouse, I think, so it must be right!

 

Cameron was elected to look after the interests of the voters of Witney. As Prime Minister, he was appointed to act in the best interests of the UK. The referendum was badly conceived and badly arranged, all because he never believed the vote would go the way it did, although he was hardly alone in that. At least he had the grace to fall on his sword when he realised what a ghastly mistake he had made, perhaps if a few others had realised it too we wouldn't now be up the creek without a paddle.

 

 

 

 

[adammike]

11 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

Says who? Grouse, I think, so it must be right!

 

Cameron was elected to look after the interests of the voters of Witney. As Prime Minister, he was appointed to act in the best interests of the UK. The referendum was badly conceived and badly arranged, all because he never believed the vote would go the way it did, although he was hardly alone in that. At least he had the grace to fall on his sword when he realised what a ghastly mistake he had made, perhaps if a few others had realised it too we wouldn't now be up the creek without a paddle.

 

 

 

 

If the latest polls are to be believed you will be up the creek without a paddle and Scotland and Northern Ireland.Also a lot of expats may be heading your way if the pound keeps being put under pressure.

 

[rixalex]

You may think the 2016 'will' was written in stone, others might disagree. Someone told me yestersay that over half a million Brexit voters had died since the Referendum. This seemed very high to me, so I thought I'd do some number crunching, based on official statistics and generally accepted Referendum vote analysis. The result showed that not only was the conjecture true, if anything it was an underestimate. Taking just the figures (rounded to the nearest 10,000) for over 65's in 2017:
 
No of deaths during the year according to Government statistics: 460,000
No who voted based on 90% turnout for this age group:  410,000
No who voted Leave based on 64% of the age group: 260,000
Extrapolating one year figure over 26 months: 560,000
 
This means that, sadly, about 560,000 Leavers have left us. They have been replaced on the electoral roll by the new 18 and 19 year olds who, if they follow the example of their predecessors, will mainly vote Remain. This helps explain  why four recent major polls have found that 52% of the electorate, and the majority of constituencies, now favour Remain (and before anyone says that the polls got it wrong last time, there is a good reason for this - the large number of serial non-voters, usually excluded in poll results, who voted in the Referendum - which the pollsters have now addressed).
 
So the question is, is the 'will' of dead people more important than that of the living? Should MPs act according to the 2016 'will' of their constituents, or the 2018 'will'?
 
 
 

Your calculations only consider those at the bottom and top end of the age ladder. What you don't take into account is all those somewhere in the middle.

If it's true that older people are generally more predisposed to be anti-EU, ask yourself then, haven't remain voters from 2016 aged too? If they have and the theory about voting patterns holds water, surely a percentage of them will have shifted their opinion towards leave and more will be shifting continually month by month, year by year, as remain voters move from young to middle aged and middle aged to old.

At the end of the day it's all speculation. You believe opinion has shifted in your favour because that's what you want to believe and because doing so gives you hope.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[melvinmelvin]

 

Been googling and searching quite a bit

re GALILEO and EU wanting to exclude UK from participating re the inner juice of the service.

 

Now, Galileo has tracking stations in 3 British territories; Diego Garcia, Falklands and Ascension.

Some UK politicians argue that these stations should be switched off ASAP as kinda counter action or revenge.

 

Anyway, I assume that there are host agreements for these tracking stations.

 

Anybody here familiar with or know where to find these host agreements? My guess is that they are in the public domain.

 

[aright]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

Because they have coalition governments. This allows freedom of expression without any real hope of power. A bag of fascists, a bag of communists, a bag of greens and the 5 star movement bag of nonsense. What fun!

 

Meanwhile, the right wing resurgence is ALL about immigration. Good, I hope the SD forces change in Sweden. But it will calm down.

 

I predict the EU will take action to resolve immigration issues at least in part. 

 

I see see no existential risk to the EU but they should show more flexibility to avoid brittle fracture as they morph into the European Onion.

If I follow your line of logic the coalition governments over 40 years have brought us to the current state of affairs. How much worse can they make it? The voice of the people is not being ignored it is being arrogantly mocked.

 

Once again if I follow your line of logic you are saying the right wing resurgence is all about immigration (I disagree but that's for another post). I assume therefore because of the failure of coalition governments to come to grips with it so far, peaceful, democratic solutions to the problem will be as a result of the continued growth of right wing parties.

 

Unfortunately when the establishment tries to suppress and destroy these parties violence will inevitably follow as  shown in Germany this weekend. The EC after 40+ years are on borrowed time to deal with a very angry electorate which needs reforms on immigration and broader political and social issues.

 

 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, aright said:

If I follow your line of logic the coalition governments over 40 years have brought us to the current state of affairs. How much worse can they make it? The voice of the people is not being ignored it is being arrogantly mocked.

 

Once again if I follow your line of logic you are saying the right wing resurgence is all about immigration (I disagree but that's for another post). I assume therefore because of the failure of coalition governments to come to grips with it so far, peaceful, democratic solutions to the problem will be as a result of the continued growth of right wing parties.

 

Unfortunately when the establishment tries to suppress and destroy these parties violence will inevitably follow as  shown in Germany this weekend. The EC after 40+ years are on borrowed time to deal with a very angry electorate which needs reforms on immigration and broader political and social issues.

 

 

I have some sympathy with your view

 

I believe (and hope) that the more centrist parties will sit up now and take notice 

 

This is the clearest of warnings that people are sick of immigration (particularly muslims)

 

I hear Japan is nice at this time of year!

 

(I'll be interested to see what happens in Sweden)

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, aright said:

If I follow your line of logic the coalition governments over 40 years have brought us to the current state of affairs. How much worse can they make it? The voice of the people is not being ignored it is being arrogantly mocked.

 

Once again if I follow your line of logic you are saying the right wing resurgence is all about immigration (I disagree but that's for another post). I assume therefore because of the failure of coalition governments to come to grips with it so far, peaceful, democratic solutions to the problem will be as a result of the continued growth of right wing parties.

 

Unfortunately when the establishment tries to suppress and destroy these parties violence will inevitably follow as  shown in Germany this weekend. The EC after 40+ years are on borrowed time to deal with a very angry electorate which needs reforms on immigration and broader political and social issues.

 

 

 

your first para; somewhat bla bla,

where would we have been today without coalition govs? nobody knows

 

2nd para;

if you look strictly at resurgence I think Grouse is generally right,

but if you look at the presence of far right, the base is much wider than immigration

 

3rd para;

yes

 

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, BwindiBoy said:

he was elected to act on voters' behalves

What?

 

I dont think so

 

The referendum about remaining back in the 75 was a ratification. It passed did it not?

 

67%:33%

 

The silly season is over now......

Edited September 3, 2018 by Grouse

[Grouse]

9 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

but if you look at the presence of far right, the base is much wider than immigration

 

I accept that, but immigration has rattled the crypt!

[Stupooey]

2 hours ago, rixalex said:

Your calculations only consider those at the bottom and top end of the age ladder. What you don't take into account is all those somewhere in the middle.

If it's true that older people are generally more predisposed to be anti-EU, ask yourself then, haven't remain voters from 2016 aged too? If they have and the theory about voting patterns holds water, surely a percentage of them will have shifted their opinion towards leave and more will be shifting continually month by month, year by year, as remain voters move from young to middle aged and middle aged to old.

At the end of the day it's all speculation. You believe opinion has shifted in your favour because that's what you want to believe and because doing so gives you hope.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I deliberately restricted my calculations to the over 65s for simplicity, and also because this age group accounted for almost 90% of the deaths.as I was only counting the number of Leave voters who had died, if I had included other age groups then my final figure would of course have been somewhat higher. Surveys have also shown that comparatively few people have changed their mind since 2016 regarding the way they might vote again; there is certainly no evidence to suggest that when people hit the magic 65 they suddenly change from being Remain supporters to backing Leave (I didn't for one!).

[billd766]

1 minute ago, Stupooey said:

I deliberately restricted my calculations to the over 65s for simplicity, and also because this age group accounted for almost 90% of the deaths.as I was only counting the number of Leave voters who had died, if I had included other age groups then my final figure would of course have been somewhat higher. Surveys have also shown that comparatively few people have changed their mind since 2016 regarding the way they might vote again; there is certainly no evidence to suggest that when people hit the magic 65 they suddenly change from being Remain supporters to backing Leave (I didn't for one!).

 

How many, approximately Remainers over 65 died during the same period?

 

How many new voters over the age of 18 will be Remainers and how many will be Leavers?

[vogie]

25 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

I deliberately restricted my calculations to the over 65s for simplicity, and also because this age group accounted for almost 90% of the deaths.as I was only counting the number of Leave voters who had died, if I had included other age groups then my final figure would of course have been somewhat higher. Surveys have also shown that comparatively few people have changed their mind since 2016 regarding the way they might vote again; there is certainly no evidence to suggest that when people hit the magic 65 they suddenly change from being Remain supporters to backing Leave (I didn't for one!).

Did you ever compile the questions on 'Family Fortunes'? ?

[aright]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

 

I hear Japan is nice at this time of year!

 

So is China I understand. Thanks for the lead in.

 

Chinese Honeymoon

She's a virgin & they are both waiters. Truth be told, he is a virgin too, but she doesn't know that.

On their wedding night, she cowers naked under the sheets, as her husband undresses in the darkness.
He climbs into bed next to her and tries to be reassuring.

"My darring," he whispers, "I know dis you firss time and you berry frighten. I plomise you, I give you anyting you want, I do anyting juss anyting you want. You juss ask.

Whatchu want?" he says, trying to sound experienced and worldly, which he hopes will impress her.

A thoughtful silence follows, and he waits patiently and eagerly for her request.

She eventually shyly whispers back, "I want to try something I have heard about from other girls .... Nummaa 69".


More thoughtful silence, but this time from him. Eventually, in a puzzled tone he asks her...

"You want ... Garlic Chicken with corrifrowa?"

Edited September 3, 2018 by aright

[rixalex]

I deliberately restricted my calculations to the over 65s for simplicity, and also because this age group accounted for almost 90% of the deaths.as I was only counting the number of Leave voters who had died, if I had included other age groups then my final figure would of course have been somewhat higher. Surveys have also shown that comparatively few people have changed their mind since 2016 regarding the way they might vote again; there is certainly no evidence to suggest that when people hit the magic 65 they suddenly change from being Remain supporters to backing Leave (I didn't for one!).

I didn't say that when people hit the magic 65 they suddenly change. It's more nuanced and gradual than that; the way people's political views change as they get older. And of course it's not true that everyone's does change. I'm sure there are examples of people who maintain the same political beliefs throughout their lives. I'd imagine they'd be in the minority though, and that most people's opinion undergoes a slow shift - most commonly left to right. Whether there's also the same sort of shift from remain to leave that happens with age, who knows, but if there isn't, and if voting demographics are to be believed, that would mean that as the older generation dies off, support for Brexit would die off almost completely. I somehow doubt that will happen. Time will tell...

In the meantime, keep repeating that, "everyone is coming around to my way of thinking" mantra, if it makes you feel better.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Stupooey]

34 minutes ago, vogie said:

Did you ever compile the questions on 'Family Fortunes'? ?

No, that was my identical twin brother!

[Stupooey]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

How many, approximately Remainers over 65 died during the same period?

 

How many new voters over the age of 18 will be Remainers and how many will be Leavers?

Using the same parameters, about 325,000 over-65 Remain voters have died.

 

If they followed a similar pattern to 18-24 year olds in 2016 (64% turnout, 73% Remain, 27% leave), of the approximately 1,500,000 new voters I would expect about 700,000 to vote Remain and 260,000 Leave.

 

Lots of assumptions, of course, but it's all we can go on and is probably fairly accurate.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

your first para; somewhat bla bla,

where would we have been today without coalition govs? nobody knows

 

2nd para;

if you look strictly at resurgence I think Grouse is generally right,

but if you look at the presence of far right, the base is much wider than immigration

 

3rd para;

yes

 

Yes, I agree

 

It is certainly immigration that has rattled the crypts and the EU must accept some responsibility for enabling that

 

Sorry. Repeating myself. As I'm 64 do I qualify as an approximate remainer yet?

Edited September 3, 2018 by Grouse

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

What?

 

I dont think so

 

The referendum about remaining back in the 75 was a ratification. It passed did it not?

 

67%:33%

 

The silly season is over now......

No...they're back from hols this week.✈️

 

By the way, the 1975 referendum was about staying in the "Common Market", as far as most of the voters knew it to be at the time. A lingering question is really why they had such a referendum so soon after joining?   

Edited September 3, 2018 by nauseus

[nauseus]

42 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Yes, I agree

 

It is certainly immigration that has rattled the crypts and the EU must accept some responsibility for enabling that

 

Sorry. Repeating myself. As I'm 64 do I qualify as an approximate remainer yet?

Senior moments are permitted as far as I know. ?

[nauseus]

54 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

Using the same parameters, about 325,000 over-65 Remain voters have died.

 

If they followed a similar pattern to 18-24 year olds in 2016 (64% turnout, 73% Remain, 27% leave), of the approximately 1,500,000 new voters I would expect about 700,000 to vote Remain and 260,000 Leave.

 

Lots of assumptions, of course, but it's all we can go on and is probably fairly accurate.

An addendum to this week's Morbid Report. Really wonderful.

[aright]

 

2 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

your first para; somewhat bla bla,

where would we have been today without coalition govs? nobody knows

 

2nd para;

if you look strictly at resurgence I think Grouse is generally right,

but if you look at the presence of far right, the base is much wider than immigration

 

3rd para;

yes

 

Best ask Albania, Serbia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Slovenia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Romania, Thailand etc.

In broad terms I can agree with your statement regarding the benefits of some Coalition governments but the question has a different answer in narrow terms.

Question.

In 40+ years of coalition governments why has the EU  got massive immigration problems, a single currency which disadvantages a majority of its members causing high unemployment for a generation of young people, is uncompetitive, banking problems, and whose failed leaders are the architect  of a rise in extreme political parties and member states who are in open revolt against Brussels? Are these the benefits of Coalition Government?

 

I expect you and Grouse to have answers on my desk by 9am...….or else    ?

 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, aright said:

 

Best ask Albania, Serbia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Slovenia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Romania, Thailand etc.

In broad terms I can agree with your statement regarding the benefits of some Coalition governments but the question has a different answer in narrow terms.

Question.

In 40+ years of coalition governments why has the EU  got massive immigration problems, a single currency which disadvantages a majority of its members causing high unemployment for a generation of young people, is uncompetitive, banking problems, and whose failed leaders are the architect  of a rise in extreme political parties and member states who are in open revolt against Brussels? Are these the benefits of Coalition Government?

 

I expect you and Grouse to have answers on my desk by 9am...….or else    ?

 

The Euro was introduced without sufficient thought. It is imperfect and changes are required. The EU got it wrong and, as it turned out, the U.K. Was right for once. Our existing opt out is valuable and should not be casually discarded.

 

EU external borders were not well enough protected and this is another issue that can be blamed on the EU.

 

As I have said before, the EU is far from perfect....

[Grouse]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/11/bbc-downplaying-facebook-brexit-scandal-bias

 

Missed this piece

 

Good article on the BBC shying away from presenting important news for fear of appearing to not be impartial and for fear of presenting news that requires some brain cells

[aright]

8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The Euro was introduced without sufficient thought. It is imperfect and changes are required. The EU got it wrong and, as it turned out, the U.K. Was right for once. Our existing opt out is valuable and should not be casually discarded.

 

EU external borders were not well enough protected and this is another issue that can be blamed on the EU.

 

As I have said before, the EU is far from perfect....

Agree with everything you say and immigration is down but its too late the rats are in the barn and the door has been closed. As for your contention centrist parties will do something; in the last 12 months what proposals have they made to the EC  recommending social, political and monetary reform. I haven't seen any. You can't wish in reform.

[bristolboy]

49 minutes ago, Grouse said:

The Euro was introduced without sufficient thought. It is imperfect and changes are required. The EU got it wrong and, as it turned out, the U.K. Was right for once. Our existing opt out is valuable and should not be casually discarded.

 

EU external borders were not well enough protected and this is another issue that can be blamed on the EU.

 

As I have said before, the EU is far from perfect....

The only way it would make sense for a common currency like the Euro would be for fiscal union with all the  other nations that use it. In other words. a genuine United States of Europe. And that is simply untenable.

[johnj]

It's time to call the Brussels elites bluff now by declaring we will leave without a deal and see how much turmoil it causes in the rest of the EU. All you ever read about is how bad it will be for the UK., well just the fact that there is a massive trade imbalance between the UK., and the rest of the EU., in the EU's favour tells you how much more it will hurt individual EU., countries. We will have 39 billion a year to help cushion the after affects. freedom to trade with who we like, stop giving Benefits handouts for kids living in EU., countries. We only ever hear from the bias media that are trying to overturn the referendum about how much it will damage the UK., economy. Well its a two way collision, so damage to both parties. 

[tebee]

2 hours ago, johnj said:

It's time to call the Brussels elites bluff now by declaring we will leave without a deal and see how much turmoil it causes in the rest of the EU. All you ever read about is how bad it will be for the UK., well just the fact that there is a massive trade imbalance between the UK., and the rest of the EU., in the EU's favour tells you how much more it will hurt individual EU., countries. We will have 39 billion a year to help cushion the after affects. freedom to trade with who we like, stop giving Benefits handouts for kids living in EU., countries. We only ever hear from the bias media that are trying to overturn the referendum about how much it will damage the UK., economy. Well its a two way collision, so damage to both parties. 

A few problems with that 

 

The EU has already indicated they are prepared to cut us away if no deal can be agreed

They are much better prepared than we are.

We have already agreed to give the 39 billion as part of the leaving process, not as part of a future deal. Reneging on that would show the UK can not be trusted.

No deal Brexit will be chaos, the only way it won't be total chaos is if the EU agree to bend some of their rules for us. This requires goodwill on their side(see above) 

the 1-2 million people who will be thrown out of work by this are not going to be happy with whoever does this. It's political suicide.