Brexit could sway Scottish voters towards independence from UK - poll

[RuamRudy]

10 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

It's high time for a Reunification of Ireland. Look to Germany. They got it already!

The article was related to Scotland, but the much bigger news, in my eyes, was that the same poll was also run in NI at the same time. I don't have a link to it, but this is from the @europeelects twitter feed:

 

Irish Reunification Referendum:

 

If UK remains in EU

Yes - 40%

No - 60%

 

If UK leaves EU

Yes - 57%

No - 43%

 

If UK leaves EU with hard border

Yes - 58%

No - 42%

 

Field work: unreleased

Sample size: 1,199

[RuamRudy]

4 hours ago, Kiwiken said:

Your vote should always be on the basis of 60/40 or a vote is inconclusive. Look at the turmoil 51% has caused. I am a fan of referendums to ensure true Democracy but since in most of Our Democracies 20-40% cannot be bothered even voting then a clear majority ensures the outcome is less contentious.

If we had had that approach for 2014 and again in 2016 then I could agree with you, but the die has been cast. Indyref2 can pass on 50% plus 1 vote as far as I am concerned - it would be every bit as legitimate as 100% in favour. 

[transam]

10 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

It's high time for a Reunification of Ireland. Look to Germany. They got it already!

Yes, now no Communists controllers Germany..There's me thinking all Ireland had no Communism..?

[melvinmelvin]

11 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

It's high time for a Reunification of Ireland. Look to Germany. They got it already!

 

Cyprus still in the queue . . .

 

[RuamRudy]

14 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

slightly off topic, but still ....

 

Scotland opting out of UK is a possibility

NI likewise

Wales - I don't know

 

Over the past 6 months, I have read several articles about Shetlands and movements re going it alone, ie out of Scotland

 

Now, if the split of UK happens - what about UK of GB and NI overseas territories?

 

Falklands, Diego Garcia, Ascension and other heaps of rocks here and there, Gibraltar?

 

Are these considered English territories? Or how to split/share?

 

At the moment I think they are considered British rather than English territories.

 

When you say split or share, are you talking about a divorce settlement with Scotland? I have no idea of their legal standing within the Union but my initial thoughts are that that seems a very 19th century way of thinking them. I don't think I would be comfortable with my country demanding a slice of a third party as if it was some chattal to be shared.

 

For Orkney and Shetland - how small can a country be before the fundamental processes of governance are unable to be performed? But even if they were resistant to independence, are they keen on what rUK could offer? Is a diminished post Brexit rUK something to which they would want to hitch their wagon? I can understand their feeling disenfranchised, and I could easily see the 'It's Scotland's Oil' campaign being distilled to 'It's Shetland's Oil', but the chances of Westminster lavishing more attention on them were they to elect to stay part of England seems somewhat far fetched.  

[Nigel Garvie]

11 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

It's high time for a Reunification of Ireland. Look to Germany. They got it already!

As long as the -now proven to be- unspeakably vile Irish RC church controlled politics in Dublin, I had some sympathy with those in NI wishing to avoid falling into it's clutches. That objection is vanishing like snow off a dyke. (I am atheist BTW, neither a Protestant atheist nor a Catholic one). 

[transam]

3 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

As long as the -now proven to be- unspeakably vile Irish RC church controlled politics in Dublin, I had some sympathy with those in NI wishing to avoid falling into it's clutches. That objection is vanishing like snow off a dyke. (I am atheist BTW, neither a Protestant atheist nor a Catholic one). 

 

[melvinmelvin]

15 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

At the moment I think they are considered British rather than English territories.

 

When you say split or share, are you talking about a divorce settlement with Scotland? I have no idea of their legal standing within the Union but my initial thoughts are that that seems a very 19th century way of thinking them. I don't think I would be comfortable with my country demanding a slice of a third party as if it was some chattal to be shared.

 

For Orkney and Shetland - how small can a country be before the fundamental processes of governance are unable to be performed? But even if they were resistant to independence, are they keen on what rUK could offer? Is a diminished post Brexit rUK something to which they would want to hitch their wagon? I can understand their feeling disenfranchised, and I could easily see the 'It's Scotland's Oil' campaign being distilled to 'It's Shetland's Oil', but the chances of Westminster lavishing more attention on them were they to elect to stay part of England seems somewhat far fetched.  

 

yes, I was thinking post Scotland leaving UK, and possibly also NI?

19th century thinking, yes, agree with that, but the heaps of stones are still there

 

the articles that I read re Shetland was that they want out of Scotland and UK, ie going it alone

 

certainly a valid point, how small can you be and still be recognized as a country?

there are some reasonably objective criteria that must be met in order to be recognized

(talkin' treaty stuff now)

being too small it would be a challenge

 

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by melvinmelvin

[Stargeezr]

I thought Scotland has lots of oil reserves off its coast, Yes? So does Scotland need Britain, or the other way around?

[Nigel Garvie]

3 minutes ago, transam said:

 

Totally, those insane Unionist bampots make the cosy old C of E look quite attractive. However these nutters hold the balance of power at Westminster, chilling thought.

[tebee]

10 hours ago, vogie said:

Scotland has already chosen, they voted to remain within the Union, something I believe you care little about.

The people have spoken and must never be allowed to speak again...

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I thought Scotland has lots of oil reserves off its coast, Yes? So does Scotland

need Britain, or the other way around?

 

[RuamRudy]

17 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

yes, I was thinking post Scotland leaving UK, and possibly also NI?

19th century thinking, yes, agree with that, but the heaps of stones are still there

 

the articles that I read re Shetland was that they want out of Scotland and UK, ie going it alone

 

certainly a valid point, how small can you be and still be recognized as a country?

there are some reasonably objective criteria that must be met in order to be recognized

(talkin' treaty stuff now)

being to small it would be a challenge

 

 

 

 

I wonder if the promise from Gordon Brown in 2014 of a No vote securing the closest possible thing to federalism had been delivered, would we still be in this situation. 

[melvinmelvin]

my guess would be yes

 

you know, separatism versus unionism is a bit like political fashion

the political pendulum swings back and forth

 

a bit like long hair - short hair

moustache - clean shaven

mini skirts - knee length skirts

 

pt - separatism is in

 

scotland - uk

uk - eu

barcelona and surroundings - spain

slovak - czech (a while ago though)

belgium - many want split

 

pretty sure there are others

 

[vogie]

56 minutes ago, tebee said:

The people have spoken and must never be allowed to speak again...

Yes of course they can speak again, but why is it the minority that always do the most shouting. Have we got to a stage in society where it's a case of 'only my opinion counts.

 

"Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond told the BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show that if the majority of Scots vote No to independence on 18 September, there will be no second referendum on the subject within this "political generation".

 

 

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, vogie said:

Yes of course they can speak again, but why is it the minority that always do the most shouting. Have we got to a stage in society where it's a case of 'only my opinion counts.

 

"Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond told the BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show that if the majority of Scots vote No to independence on 18 September, there will be no second referendum on the subject within this "political generation".

 

 

 

I am not in the SNP so whatever Salmond may or may not have meant, it means nothing to me as he does not speak for me. 

 

But have you missed the thrust of the very topic of this thread? Excluding Don't Knows, there seems to be a majority in favour of a second referendum. Whilst not exactly a scientific extrapolation, but there are now more SNP members in Scotland than Tory members across the entire UK. 

 

But in the immortal words of St Nigel of Used Car Salesmen, "In a 52/48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way".

[transam]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I am not in the SNP so whatever Salmond may or may not have meant, it means nothing to me as he does not speak for me. 

 

But have you missed the thrust of the very topic of this thread? Excluding Don't Knows, there seems to be a majority in favour of a second referendum. Whilst not exactly a scientific extrapolation, but there are now more SNP members in Scotland than Tory members across the entire UK. 

 

But in the immortal words of St Nigel of Used Car Salesmen, "In a 52/48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way".

Thought the SNP lost loads of seats at their last vote thingy...

 

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, transam said:

Thought the SNP lost loads of seats at their last vote thingy...

 

They did - but they still ended up with more than all the other parties combined...

[Snow Leopard]

Not this nonsense again. Can we all just face up to reality and get on with it. 

[transam]

6 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

They did - but they still ended up with more than all the other parties combined...

So tell me why the SNP lost seats..?

[Nigel Garvie]

20 hours ago, puipuitom said:

 

Maybe the U.K. can file a new application to be member (again) of the E.U. = but that's another question.  ( accept no preferences, agree €uro and Schengen + driving on the right lane for instance ? ) 

Yes that other question demands a crystal ball, which you were using when you suggested Euro and Shengen would have to be part of it. However changing to driving on the right (I presume you were joking) is a non starter, nobody can afford it. For countries with few roads and cars it might be possible. Myanmar changed over to the right, whether to spite the UK, or to please China no one knows, the generals were known to resort to spiritualists for advice. The majority of cars haven't changed, making driving very dangerous. The transport minister of an African country (I can't remember which - Botswana maybe) when asked how they were gong to achieve the difficult changeover from left to the right, told the reporter not to worry, they were going to do it gradually!  A metaphor for Brexit really, a gradual slow motion, economy destroying, train crash, spun out over years till the entire population are sick of it,  and wished the Government would just run the country properly instead.

[smedly]

12 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

you are too funny, mate. Scotland can choose the way of being part of the winners but not that of losers. And that UK will be the loser is very clear even to Ms May.

put that to a poll in Greece

 

what you fail to realise is that the EU is a massive failure, I liked the idea of a common market which is where it started but it has morphed into a power grabbing undemocratic debacle, some of Scotland might hate the English but be careful who you want to jump into bed with.

 

Here is a good question for you - in terms of trade, who does Scotland trade with the most, I know the answer but you go for it.

 

and during the referendum you were told by Salmond and his ilk that Scotland would be fine with revenues from North seas oil - shortly after the vote the oil price went through the floor, also if Scotland decided to leave the UK they would still have to pay a share of total UK debt which you would be paying for decades

 

Yeah the grass is always greener.……….. right ?

 

The rest of us in the UK are fed up to the back teeth listening to this same rhetoric from the hapless minority in Scotland, you are being led down the garden path by sinister people with a seriously suspect agenda, time to smell the SNP cheese who are doing nothing for Scotland  

 

get over it, you just don't know when you're well off  

 

and BTW - I am not English 

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, transam said:

So tell me why the SNP lost seats..?

Myriad reasons, I am sure.  Here are some that I can think of:

 

- Labour working hand in hand with the tories, actively telling their supporters to vote Tory in seats where they knew they had no chance of winning;

- General discontent at yet another election/ referendum

- Turnout in 2017 in Scotland was down 5% on 2015 - my take on that is that the Yoons surged and the Nats abstained; right or not, most Nats feel that a westminster presence is pointless anyway.

[transam]

1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

Myriad reasons, I am sure.  Here are some that I can think of:

 

- Labour working hand in hand with the tories, actively telling their supporters to vote Tory in seats where they knew they had no chance of winning;

- General discontent at yet another election/ referendum

- Turnout in 2017 in Scotland was down 5% on 2015 - my take on that is that the Yoons surged and the Nats abstained; right or not, most Nats feel that a westminster presence is pointless anyway.

?.....and.....?

[RuamRudy]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

put that to a poll in Greece

 

what you fail to realise is that the EU is a massive failure, I liked the idea of a common market which is where it started but it has morphed into a power grabbing undemocratic debacle, 

 

Oh God - so much garbage and failure to understand, I almost don't know where to start...

 

6 minutes ago, smedly said:

some of Scotland might hate the English but be careful who you want to jump into bed with.

People keep peddling this garbage but repeatedly fail to offer a shred of evidence to back it up. I have learnt that asking for evidence is a futile gesture because none is usually offered, yet the lie is often repeated. So, just to be clear, you are peddling lies or ignorance.

 

8 minutes ago, smedly said:

Here is a good question for you - in terms of trade, who does Scotland trade with the most, I know the answer but you go for it.

Why would trade with England stop? It is worth more to England than it is to Scotland. To date the rUK has secured trade deals with Lesotho and Malawi. I am not sure they are in a position to be choosy about whom they trade.

 

 

9 minutes ago, smedly said:

and during the referendum you were told by Salmond and his ilk that Scotland would be fine with revenues from North seas oil - shortly after the vote the oil price went through the floor, also if Scotland decided to leave the UK they would still have to pay a share of total UK debt which you would be paying for decades

Well the debt is clearly an issue - recent UK figures showed that Scotland is responsible for 31% of the UK deficit whilst only having about 9% of its population. Excuse me if I call that horse shit. 

 

As for our finances in general, there is another question I ask repeatedly, which NEVER gets answered - what is unique about Scots and Scotland that means we cannot make our own way in the world? Why can other countries accomplish things of which you think we are incapable?

 

12 minutes ago, smedly said:

The rest of us in the UK are fed up to the back teeth listening to this same rhetoric from the hapless minority in Scotland, you are being led down the garden path by sinister people with a seriously suspect agenda, time to smell the SNP cheese who are doing nothing for Scotland  

Another who has failed to even understand the topic to which they are replying - the latest polls show a majority of Scots want another referendum. 

 

But tell me, please, what is this sinister agenda to which you are referring? 

 

14 minutes ago, smedly said:

and BTW - I am not English 

And why is that even remotely relevant?  

[RuamRudy]

13 minutes ago, transam said:

?.....and.....?

Go on - I am genuinely interested in your take on it.

[BritManToo]

If we English had the chance to vote to exclude Scotland, the Scots would be out in 60 seconds.

I've often thought that the UK parliament should offer the EU, Scotland and NI as a Brexit gift.

Edited September 4, 2018 by BritManToo

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

If we English had the chance to vote to exclude Scotland, the Scots would be out in 60 seconds.

I've often thought that the UK parliament should offer the EU, Scotland and NI as a Brexit gift.

Yes, my friend - unfortunately there are those in England who see the other home nations as their possessions with which England can do as it sees fit.

 

Just to be clear, Scotland and the Scots will decide our future. You will be a spectator who will play no part in whatever outcome we arrive at, but you will have to live with whatever it is we choose to do. A bit like Brexit in that respect. 

[mommysboy]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

If we English had the chance to vote to exclude Scotland, the Scots would be out in 60 seconds.

I've often thought that the UK parliament should offer the EU, Scotland and NI as a Brexit gift.

Not so.

 

3 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Yes, my friend - unfortunately there are those in England who see the other home nations as their possessions with which England can do as it sees fit.

 

Just to be clear, Scotland and the Scots will decide our future. You will be a spectator who will play no part in whatever outcome we arrive at, but you will have to live with whatever it is we choose to do. A bit like Brexit in that respect. 

Most Brits polled last time did not want to lose Scotland from the UK.

 

You can well understand why the Scots might want independence, but it would effectively be a no deal Brexit, wouldn't it?  From both the EU and the UK.

[Nigel Garvie]

 32 minutes ago, transam said:     So tell me why the SNP lost seats..

  40 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

They did - but they still ended up with more than all the other parties combined...

It appears - transam - that you might really want to know. Below is a link to a good article on the subject. A couple of salient points are  "The result is that the new landscape of MPs in Scotland more accurately reflects the politics of the country. However, this by no means signals the end of the SNP – Nicola Sturgeon’s party still won the election, taking more seats than all the other parties combined." and "In reality, such a large proportion of SNP MPs was never really representative of the country, and the only direction the SNP could go in this election was downwards." Indeed 56 out of 59 seats in the previous election was unsustainable. The total embarrassment of the Unionist parties then, was massively enjoyed in Scotland at the time of course. I knocked back copious quantities of bevvy myself.

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/five-reasons-why-snp-lost-seats-in-general-election