$AU down to 18 Baht by end 2019 - What's your break-even point?

[thailand49]

You do no matter where you are?  Sit down with your other half if there isn't one even better. You come up with a plan to cut back you think hard you can find some luxuries it is about making the sacrifice and setting priorities.

[Stevemercer]

Thank JimHuaHin. Good post. In fact, most posts express good points of view.

 

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Incidentally, today's good news on the Oz economy was a continuation of what is now 27 years of uninterrupted growth. A world record (for all you pessimists).

 

The Oz economy seems to be performing well, but obviously currency markets do not rate the Australian dollar. We always hear that the Chinese economy is weakening and will drag down Australia.

 

Yeah, right. Australia doesn't need China to drag down its economy - it's capable of doing that all by itself! In the meantime, China keeps making the adjustments necessary to keep growing. For example, continuing to weaken the Yuan to help counteract American tariffs.

 

On the other had, the Baht seems to be everyones' darling. I know Thailand has strong fundamentals, but debt is increasing and, as noted in other posts, there is a lack of transparency in the current account figures. I would have thought that the Thai central bank could lower interest rates by a quarter of a percent to ease the Baht and help exporters. Of course, China will continue to snap up whatever it can to lever the Thai economy.

[Stevemercer]

8 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

You do no matter where you are?  Sit down with your other half if there isn't one even better. You come up with a plan to cut back you think hard you can find some luxuries it is about making the sacrifice and setting priorities.

 

It's funny, but the wife's solution is to go back to Australia and both work so we can afford to rent. I say cut back as necessary in Thailand so we can continue to live here without working. To be honest, I think my wife just wants to run away to escape all the dramas of her extended Thai family. Cutting them off is the first saving to trim the budget.

[thailand49]

3 minutes ago, Stevemercer said:

 

It's funny, but the wife's solution is to go back to Australia and both work so we can afford to rent. I say cut back as necessary in Thailand so we can continue to live here without working. To be honest, I think my wife just wants to run away to escape all the dramas of her extended Thai family. Cutting them off is the first saving to trim the budget.

Personally, I count my blessing as to what I have and don't have to worry and I fully understand your position since I have a Thai wife and son here.  In many ways, I keep her and my son in a bit of a dark as to my total worth but it is for their own good since what they have already obtained has spoiled them so I do things to keep them level-headed?

When it comes to Thailand, this is one of my biggest negative about the place that the men and culture have done a number on their women making them at times feel inslave to providing for the rest of the family while the guys get a past. Of course, I'm only speaking in general before anyone gets upset I'm lucky my wife family have asked nothing from me although I know my wife saves and gives money to her mom and her brothers are all good people who ask nothing of her or me.

But I know that isn't the case for many Thai women the stories I've heard and first-hand personal cases there is real pressure on them to provide especially if they know they have hooked up with a foreigner. Many times they keep it from their husband.

So as I noted even the extended Thai family has to be told point blank but usually doesn't happen unless the wife has totally had it, and it even tougher if she has children earlier by someone else and the family is raising them while she stays with the foreigner because many don't want to accept the baggage. Some see this as an opportunity to explore the situation always asking for money for the kids but is a means for themselves not to work?

 

[DJ54]

I think overall it’ll be alright if you have to tighten up the belt a little 

it should pass.

 

I’m from US and with Social Security as your funds it be difficult at best to get by in the US. As well medical is out of control in US.

 

Here at least you’ve got a chance. 

[The Deerhunter]

9 hours ago, wombat said:

we still have time for 3 more PM's before the next election.
Is it any wonder the money/share market is jittery and will manipulate us for every cent the big boys can get

 

3 more PM''s before the next election.  In which country would that be likely?  Unless of course one of the countries we are interested in decided to not have elections for an indeterminate number of years.

[tropo]

11 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

The Aussie dollar was 30 Baht just 5 years ago. Now it is 23 Baht (25% drop).

The reality is that when the AUD was at 30 THB or above, that was an unusual peak. This can cause a lot of problems for people just retiring at the peak. 

 

Here's a good look at what the AUDTHB has been doing since 1960:

 

 http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php

 

Edited September 5, 2018 by tropo

[Dene16]

9 hours ago, possum1931 said:

what is

Thailand doing right that the UK isn't.

As far as i can see many of the worlds manufacturers are investing in Thailand. Harley Davidson, Nissan, Makita, Ford, Honda,Ducati,Triumph, are just some of the companies that have either built/extended new plants and choose to produce their latest models here. As long as wages and expenditure remains cheap why would it change.

[logres212]

11 hours ago, Laza 45 said:

That is true.. but it depends on how short you might be.. not necessarily 300,000 Bt.. if only 5.. 10 or 15 K short of 65K requirement..  Not convenient for everyone but I don't keep money here .. I get my OA multi entry in Oz.. Could be a problem for someone getting an extension here.. but.. what goes up comes down.. what goes down comes up again... a few years ago I was down to 19 Bt to the $Au.. then it went up again.. so on and on it goes.. GDP figures today were encouraging.. stopped the slide for the moment.. I think  fingers crossed.. Much depends on what happens if the US.. the economy is booming at the moment.. but who knows where Trump's war on the planet will lead.. ?? 

Yes you would be a rich man if you could predict currency fluctuations. The reason I quoted 300,000 Bhat in the bank is based on the Aus pension for people living overseas, converted to Baht at the current rate is 513,000 Baht per year, so you would need that amount to reach the 800,000 Baht qualifying amount with a small buffer. That's if you're relying solely on the pension.

[dallen52]

19 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Like to see these predictions. Dropping from 23-24 to 18 (25%) in 1.25 yrs??

I've gone from 33baht in 2009, down to the 30 baht mark, when i seriously though i would move here.

 

Today it's on 23 baht to the AU$ and I am mentally saying, "better exchange some dollars soon".

I don't hold more than needed in a Thai account. 

I get bonus interest in Australia. 

Nothing like the deeming rate they apply [3.45%], but better than taking a chance on Thailand banks with pending elections. 

 

For what it is worth. 

I just had time in the UK and Australia,  and the UK cost of living is certainly more affordable than Australia. 

My partner said that Thailand is extremely expensive on food, England is very cheap.

What else do Thais think about?.lol.

 

Like many, no house in oz after the big D, grown up kids and families. 

And they don't want me back. 

 

Just a bank account cushion if needed, plus reduced pension. 

 

I said in a previous topic I was trying to get by on 50,000 to 60,000 a month, but further erosion of the exchange is certainly going to hit many expatriates living here.

 

UK £ has gone from 67 down to 42.

AUD has gone from 33 down to 23.

 

I already know several Brits and Aussies that have locked up the house and headed to the UK / Australia again. 

On the soi where I live [rent just out of Pattaya] there are approximately 35 houses, and last count 8 were closed up, 7 were up for rental.

 

Everyone loses. 

Even the Thai people who own the houses..

It was deathly around soi Buchao and Pattaya in general yesterday. 

 

Serious time for rethinking,  as Thai day to day price are already creeping up to. 

 

 

 

[dallen52]

5 hours ago, Dene16 said:

As far as i can see many of the worlds manufacturers are investing in Thailand. Harley Davidson, Nissan, Makita, Ford, Honda,Ducati,Triumph, are just some of the companies that have either built/extended new plants and choose to produce their latest models here. As long as wages and expenditure remains cheap why would it change.

I worked my last years with Ford studying the Asia Pacific region economic.

Regards viability of the manufacturing process here and China/India. 

Thailand is a winner hands down because of the government deals and tax concessions to the big operations.

Plus the 51/49 land ownership, or gifted on peppercorn agreements. 

Plus average hourly rate of say 58 baht plus employee benefits. 

Which are on par with the western world countries. 

When Australia stopped building cars, the basic wage was $30 /hr plus benefits. 

Thailand is  around $2.75 an hour plus generous fringe benefits. 

 

This is where the money is.

And why they don't worry about tourism too much..

 

[dallen52]

12 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

 

It's funny, but the wife's solution is to go back to Australia and both work so we can afford to rent. I say cut back as necessary in Thailand so we can continue to live here without working. To be honest, I think my wife just wants to run away to escape all the dramas of her extended Thai family. Cutting them off is the first saving to trim the budget.

Once my Thai partner realised what you said about above ,  she had already blown away about 1 million baht of money we will never see again. 

(Silly me)

But we have learned. 

She has learned more so.

She has excommunicated the whole family,  sadly. 

But she enjoys her life a lot more.

I hope.

[Sparkles]

17 hours ago, ThaiFelix said:

$6,000?  Is this correct or do you mean 6,000 baht?

$6,000 + I was quoted for a permanent visa.A  4 week  holiday stay cost us around 6,000 baht (visitor visa for up to 6 mths)

Edited September 6, 2018 by Sparkles

[Naam]

1 hour ago, dallen52 said:

AUD has gone from 33 down to 23.

wrong perspective mate. please look at the 20 year range.

 

AUD/THB went up from 23.29 (jan 1999) to the present 23.59 (both interbank rates).

 

 

 

 

[james1995]

i try to not think about exchange rates.  i have been here when the US$ was at 28 and it hurt.  try earning more income instead of worrying.  just made 8,000 baht pure profit last night in my sleep with my laptop.  took literally 2 hours of my time.  most of the time i'm just chilling here doing absolutely nothing.

[Naam]

2 minutes ago, james1995 said:

i try to not think about exchange rates.  i have been here when the US$ was at 28 and it hurt.  try earning more income instead of worrying.  just made 8,000 baht pure profit last night in my sleep with my laptop.  took literally 2 hours of my time.  most of the time i'm just chilling here doing absolutely nothing.

are you able to spend these huge sums?

[janclaes47]

3 minutes ago, james1995 said:

i try to not think about exchange rates.  i have been here when the US$ was at 28 and it hurt.  try earning more income instead of worrying.  just made 8,000 baht pure profit last night in my sleep with my laptop.  took literally 2 hours of my time.  most of the time i'm just chilling here doing absolutely nothing.

I assume that you, as most on this forum, only have winning nights

[dallen52]

2 hours ago, Naam said:

wrong perspective mate. please look at the 20 year range.

 

AUD/THB went up from 23.29 (jan 1999) to the present 23.59 (both interbank rates).

 

 

 

 

No hiding from it. 

But I started work here in the 2008 to 2009 dream period. 

Happy days. 

 

Then started to frequent more in 2013, eventually moving here. 

 

Would dearly love to have the old rates, like some of my US friends who were on embarrassing salaries plus living allowance. Plus accommodation, drivers 24/7, tax breaks after 12 months,  even farang food allowance.

 

But not so today...

I just have to hope that it doesn't dive any where near the prediction. 

[dallen52]

1 hour ago, james1995 said:

i try to not think about exchange rates.  i have been here when the US$ was at 28 and it hurt.  try earning more income instead of worrying.  just made 8,000 baht pure profit last night in my sleep with my laptop.  took literally 2 hours of my time.  most of the time i'm just chilling here doing absolutely nothing.

When I was winding up working here late 2012,  I was in Process Improvement and Lean, waste elimination. Cost reduction. etc.

 

It was quite easy to fix other people's waste and loss,  and turn it around to a profit. 

 

I tried setting up myself, finally realising they wanted the know how and training, but would not pay consulting fees to get it.

 

Anyway, of recent I've been applying the philosophy to my own situation. 

Starting with not giving her in doors 10,000 every month. 

(It was mentally hard to do because I was scary about the outcome.)

 

Which she would sub her friends and family, or give to her lazy git of a 20 year old son in the village. 

Who has now knocked up his girlfriend. 

 

Anyway, good things happened.

Several actually. 

 

She doesn't have as many friends. 

 

Her son doesn't call her.

 

Some friends still owe her money. 

 

He, well he will have to learn that life's a bitch. And keep it in his pants.

 

She has almost zilch in her account. But knows she can have if needed.

 

Finally...

She is still here with me.

Plus we seem to have a bit if spare cash.

 

Lessons learned?

I think so.... ?

[The Deerhunter]

14 hours ago, tropo said:

The reality is that when the AUD was at 30 THB or above, that was an unusual peak. This can cause a lot of problems for people just retiring at the peak. 

 

Here's a good look at what the AUDTHB has been doing since 1960:

 

 http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php

 

Exactly.  I have currency that is currently close to the AUS D and I have seen exactly the same range on mine over the same period.  1997 was great year for my ex g.f to be sending money home to Mum.   But it didn't last.  (Neither the rate or the g.f.)

[starky]

23 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

Don't worry mate, I first came to Thailand when the Aussie was 18 to the Baht......had some great times then !

But just a tip: If you're worried about exchange rates, try not to have you cashflow (income) in a different currency to your costs (expenditures).....there's plenty of investment options out there for you to reduce currency risk

Me too I've seen 18 as well. I was amazed when it broke 23. Everyone harps on about the 30 plus days in the scheme of things that lasted 5 minutes. I think, though no currency expert that 23/ 24 to the baht is about right unless Aussie has another massive resources boom. Spoiler! It won't. If I was the OP I would be more concerned with the fact that you moved to another country and don't have enough to see you out regardless of inevitable currency fluctuations. 

[Stevemercer]

Yes, I moved to Thailand at 30 Baht. I admit that I didn't foresee that, 5 years later, it would be down to 23 Baht and dropping.

 

It's a shame to loose 25% income through falling exchange rates. Obviously many expats share the same problem. Other expats have plenty of money, other fall back options or have been here long enough to see the highs and lows.

 

I can still 'afford' Thailand, even at 18 Baht. I'm just wondering if there is a point where the typical Aussie might do his sums and decide he can't ''afford' Thailand. I reckon that break even point is about 15 Baht per Australian dollar.

 

[Naam]

4 hours ago, dallen52 said:

But I started work here in the 2008 to 2009 dream period. 

Happy days.

not exactly happy days for those who saw their investments drop down 50% (and more!) after the bankruptcy and global financial crisis caused by Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in september 2008.

 

[Lacessit]

7 hours ago, dallen52 said:

I get bonus interest in Australia. 

Nothing like the deeming rate they apply [3.45%], but better than taking a chance on Thailand banks with pending elections. 

 

 

 

You are robbing yourself. I know, it depends on your personal risk profile. However, having money on deposit with the big banks in Australia puts you well behind the inflation 8 - ball.

Ratesetter, depending on the term of lending, will give returns anywhere between 3% and 8%.

Latrobe Financial pays 5.2% on 1 year term deposits.

My current gain on Raiz, an ETF investment, is 6.6%.

If you can tolerate a higher risk level in Peer to Peer lending, True Pillars and Marketlend give returns of over 10%.

Or simply buy bank shares. The share prices have taken a battering due to the Royal Commission, so they are cheap now. You'll get about 5.5% dividend yield on any one of the Big 4, and a cheque back from the taxman thanks to dividend franking.

[Sparkles]

On ‎9‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 3:10 PM, Time Traveller said:

That's sounds horrible. Not talking about your predicament, but your whole outlook on life and expectations of how people owe you a living. 

I appreciate that you are old, but you can still get a job, instead of expecting welfare to take care of you. Plenty of people work into their 70's,......and 90% of the world are in that situation same as you or without any access to welfare at all.

As for health care costs, Thailand has many affordable options. After living in America for a number of years, the health care savings alone is why I would choose to retire in Thailand.

Firstly you dont know me. I have always had a positive outlook on life otherwise I wouldnt be here

 

Secondly I never said anyone owes me a living.

 

Thirdly an aged pension for Australians is not welfare its a benefit of a working life paying tax for all.

 

Where as I close in on my 80's do you suggest I work keeping in mind sporting and work injuries restrict me from standing /sitting for long periods and an inability to lift heavy things.

 

A good friend at 73 just had an emergency heart op in Bangkok ,It cost close on a million baht ,out of insurance age window,not that would worry you obviously

[suzannegoh]

The Thai baht is subject to manipulation, just like other currencies. There is a contradiction between slapping exorbitant tariffs on imported goods, and having a strong Thai baht which makes imports cheaper and exports dearer.

Bullion gold is in short supply at the Thai gold shops. It's trading low, and every Thai with cash in hand is in there buying.

That settles if then. If every Thai is buying gold that must be where the action is, as seldom does one meet a Thai who is not a financial wizard.

 

[Lacessit]

14 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

That settles if then. If every Thai is buying gold that must be where the action is, as seldom does one meet a Thai who is not a financial wizard.

 

Tell me - are not the illiterate girls from Issan, who mulct educated Westerners of their life savings, financial wizards?

Edited September 6, 2018 by Lacessit

[suzannegoh]

Tell me - are not the illiterate girls from Issan, who mulct educated Westerners of their life savings, financial wizards?

Maybe more so than the guys that they are sponging off of. Millennials in the West who live in their parents' basement are financial wizards by that standard too. Take a look at the Thailand's per capita income; if financial savvy was a national trait the country would be as rich as Singapore.

 

[Lacessit]

54 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

Maybe more so than the guys that they are sponging off of. Millennials in the West who live in their parents' basement are financial wizards by that standard too. Take a look at the Thailand's per capita income; if financial savvy was a national trait the country would be as rich as Singapore.

 

You haven't been here very long, have you? If you can explain to me how one gets to be financially savvy on a rice field wage of 200 baht a day, I'm all ears. it's a question of opportunity.

[MikeN]

19 hours ago, tropo said:

The reality is that when the AUD was at 30 THB or above, that was an unusual peak. This can cause a lot of problems for people just retiring at the peak. 

 

Here's a good look at what the AUDTHB has been doing since 1960:

 

 http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php

 

One thing wrong with extrapolating anything from that chart is that anything before the Asian financial crisis in 1997 is irrelevant....the Thai baht was manipulated before it was floated then, and the AU $ was fixed up until Keating floated it in the early eighties. It’s only since then that the FX rate reflects a “true” value.