Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib

[webfact]

Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib

By Maria Tsvetkova

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan shake hands during a news conference following their talks in Sochi, Russia September 17, 2018. Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS

 

SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - Russian and Turkish troops are to enforce a new demilitarized zone in Syria's Idlib region from which "radical" rebels will be required to withdraw by the middle of next month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart.

 

Russia, the biggest outside backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his fight against rebels, has been preparing for an offensive on the city of Idlib, which is controlled by rebels and now home to about 3 million people.

 

But after Putin's talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who has opposed a military operation against the rebels in Idlib, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told reporters there would not now be an offensive.

 

Erdogan, who had feared another cross-border exodus of Syrian refugees to join the 3.5 million already in Turkey, said the deal would allow opposition supporters to stay where they were, and avert a humanitarian crisis.

 

Putin told a joint news conference with Erdogan: "We agreed that by Oct. 15 (we will) create along the contact line between the armed opposition and government troops a demilitarized zone of a depth of 15-20 km, with the withdrawal from there of radically-minded rebels, including al-Nusra."

 

TURKISH AND RUSSIAN MONITORS

 

"By Oct. 10, at the suggestion of the Turkish president, (we agreed) on the withdrawal from that zone of the heavy weapons, tanks, rockets systems and mortars of all opposition groups," Putin said, with Erdogan standing alongside him.

 

"The demilitarized zone will be monitored by mobile patrol groups of Turkish units and units of Russian military police."

 

Neither Putin not Erdogan explained how they planned to differentiate "radically-minded" rebels from other anti-Assad groups. It was also not immediately clear how much of the city of Idlib fell within the zone.

 

Idlib is held by an array of rebels. The most powerful is Tahrir al-Sham, an amalgamation of Islamist groups dominated by the former Nusra Front - an al Qaeda affiliate until 2016.

 

Other Islamists, and groups fighting as the Free Syrian Army banner, are now gathered with Turkish backing under the banner of the "National Front for Liberation".

 

"With this agreement we have precluded experiencing a large humanitarian crisis in Idlib," Erdogan told reporters at the news conference with Putin.

 

"The opposition will continue to remain in the areas where they are. In return, we will ensure that the radical groups, which we will determine with Russia, will not operate in the area under discussion," he said.

 

PREVENTING PROVOCATION

 

"Russia will surely take necessary precautions to ensure the Idlib de-escalation zone is not attacked. Together we will ensure the detection and the prevention of provocation by third parties and violations of the agreement."

 

Ahead of the trip to Russia, Erdogan had said Turkey's calls for a ceasefire in Idlib region were bearing fruit after days of relative calm but that more work needed to be done.

 

Putin this month publicly rebuffed a proposal from Erdogan for a ceasefire there when the two met along with Iran's president for a three-way summit in Tehran.

 

Syria's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, speaking earlier on Monday, said the Assad government was determined to drive the Nusra Front, which he described as a terrorist organisation, from Idlib.

 

"Our government wants to give priority to reconciliation and to give all necessary measures in order to ensure safe corridors, and to secure the lives of civilians and to provide the basic needs of civilians in cooperation with U.N. humanitarian agencies," Ambassador Hussam Edin Aala told the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva.

 

(Additional reporting by Maxim Rodionov in Moscow, Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva, and Ali Kucukgocmen in Istanbul; Writing by Christian Lowe; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-09-18

[sammieuk1]

Now there's a vomit inducing photo if ever there was a couple of state terrorists the world could do without?

[ezzra]

26 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Now there's a vomit inducing photo if ever there was a couple of state terrorists the world could do without?

The Jackal and the hyena get together to share the spoiles of the hunt...

[Lungstib]

44 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Now there's a vomit inducing photo if ever there was a couple of state terrorists the world could do without

While I dont disagree with you I had to go back up and check it wasn't:

Bush and Blair,

Trump and Mohammed bin Salman, or

Xi Jingpin and Kim Jong Un. 

Lot of nice people in politics over the years.

[JemJem]

What the heck is going on; and, what the heck is going to happen now ?

 

So, all these terror groups will suddenly vanish into thin air by themselves ? Who really believes that ?!

 

Very disappointing !

 

So, Erdogan is worried about a new exodus of refugees and migrants ?! No way, man ! This is the guy who has made Turkey sort of a dumping ground for millions of refugees and migrants in recent years. 

 

These jihadi groups will probably be used in attacks against the Kurds in the future, and the world will once again just watch.

 

Very sad and disappointing !

[Morch]

17 minutes ago, JemJem said:

What the heck is going on; and, what the heck is going to happen now ?

 

So, all these terror groups will suddenly vanish into thin air by themselves ? Who really believes that ?!

 

Very disappointing !

 

So, Erdogan is worried about a new exodus of refugees and migrants ?! No way, man ! This is the guy who has made Turkey sort of a dumping ground for millions of refugees and migrants in recent years. 

 

These jihadi groups will probably be used in attacks against the Kurds in the future, and the world will once again just watch.

 

Very sad and disappointing !

 

There are many of them Islamic terrorist organizations in the Idlib region. There are far more civilians, though. Given Assad's and Russia's record on such attacks - it is unlikely the planned offensive would have been anything but a repeat of the same, if not worse.

 

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in Erdogan's "compassion" either. That doesn't mean he's interested in a potential  wave of refugees - not with Europe possibly less open to paying up, and not without the militant elements being under his thumb. That this seats well with his efforts to entrench himself (one way or the other) in Northern Syria, or undo Kurdish achievements and gains is convenient.

 

There are many other competing interests when it comes to the Kurds and areas under their control. These involve Syria, Russia, US, Iran and Iraq. Maybe not a simple matter of Erdogan taking what he wants.

[Grouse]

This is a cunning plan.

 

Doesnt look good for the Kurds.

 

Where is The West in all this? (Dealing with Trump, Brexit and refugees)

[Morch]

9 hours ago, Grouse said:

This is a cunning plan.

 

Doesnt look good for the Kurds.

 

Where is The West in all this? (Dealing with Trump, Brexit and refugees)

 

Regarding the Kurds - depends which angle one looks at it. Two possible positive outcomes - withholding a major offensive due to disagreements among involved parties, and/or international pressure could be a favorable precedent. Also, had the offensive taken place, it could have caused a mass migration of refugees to Kurdish held areas - which the Kurds would have found both hard to address, and would possibly contain hostile elements.

 

As for "the West" - that US president you abhor issued threats, European countries expressed concerns. Did either influence the course of events more than the standing issues between involved parties? Maybe not, but contributed to how the situation evolved anyhow.

 

What, exactly, do you (and other posters) expect "the West" to do? In realistic terms, that is, not the usual hyperbole.

[Grouse]

11 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Regarding the Kurds - depends which angle one looks at it. Two possible positive outcomes - withholding a major offensive due to disagreements among involved parties, and/or international pressure could be a favorable precedent. Also, had the offensive taken place, it could have caused a mass migration of refugees to Kurdish held areas - which the Kurds would have found both hard to address, and would possibly contain hostile elements.

 

As for "the West" - that US president you abhor issued threats, European countries expressed concerns. Did either influence the course of events more than the standing issues between involved parties? Maybe not, but contributed to how the situation evolved anyhow.

 

What, exactly, do you (and other posters) expect "the West" to do? In realistic terms, that is, not the usual hyperbole.

To have at least been involved at the negotiations either directly or through the UN. Do you think either Turkey or Russia are doing this for humanitarian reasons?

 

 

[simple1]

12 hours ago, JemJem said:

What the heck is going on; and, what the heck is going to happen now ?

 

So, all these terror groups will suddenly vanish into thin air by themselves ? Who really believes that ?!

 

Very disappointing !

 

So, Erdogan is worried about a new exodus of refugees and migrants ?! No way, man ! This is the guy who has made Turkey sort of a dumping ground for millions of refugees and migrants in recent years. 

 

These jihadi groups will probably be used in attacks against the Kurds in the future, and the world will once again just watch.

 

Very sad and disappointing !

Elsewhere in media reports it has been claimed the rather small OP area will be cleansed of Islamist terror fighters by the Turkish military, then jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish forces to try and ensure a safe zone for some civilians. Personally I think it is highly likely the remaining Idlib area will be subject to aggressive military action by Syria and Russia. Accordingly it is probable there will be another large exit of civilians seeking refuge in Turkey or maybe the Kurdish held area of Syria. There have been some reports that Syria will be divided between Assad forces and Kurds until the final removal of the Assad regime at some point in the future.

[Morch]

12 hours ago, Grouse said:

To have at least been involved at the negotiations either directly or through the UN. Do you think either Turkey or Russia are doing this for humanitarian reasons?

 

 

 

Guess you skipped the part about "realistic". The "West", is not directly involved. Other than the US, there aren't "Western" forces deployed, and the US presence is very limited in scope. The "West" doesn't have much by way of great diplomatic relations with all parties involved - Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran. No involvement, and not a whole lot of leverage other than Trump's threats regarding use of chemical weapons (which, interestingly enough, are met by the usual negative comments).

 

The "West" wasn't asked to participate (other than in observer role) in previous rounds of negotiation track headed by Russia. The "West"'s own version of such negotiations doesn't seem to go anywhere, precisely because it is largely irrelevant at this point.

 

The UN, which is very active at addressing (at least on a declarative level) other conflicts, failed miserably when it comes to Syria. A lot of this has to do with Russia obstructing initiatives, usually through vetoing stuff in the UNSC. Doesn't get as criticized as when the US does the same, though.

 

I don't think I made any strong claims regarding a humanitarian angle, or much related "care" when it comes to Turkey or Russia. If that wasn't some lame attempt at a spin, no idea what you're on about.

 

 

[JemJem]

On 9/19/2018 at 4:40 AM, simple1 said:

Elsewhere in media reports it has been claimed the rather small OP area will be cleansed of Islamist terror fighters by the Turkish military, then jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish forces to try and ensure a safe zone for some civilians. Personally I think it is highly likely the remaining Idlib area will be subject to aggressive military action by Syria and Russia. Accordingly it is probable there will be another large exit of civilians seeking refuge in Turkey or maybe the Kurdish held area of Syria. There have been some reports that Syria will be divided between Assad forces and Kurds until the final removal of the Assad regime at some point in the future.

 

So, those people/reports say that Erdogan's army will cleanse the Islamist terrorists ?! Do you, for example, believe that ? I personally don't. I don't believe in the Turkish army's sincerity when they say they are fighting jihadis ? By the way, I am sure that you know that Erdogan has, especially in the past 2 years or so, kicked out as many secularists as possible from the Turkish army (once, a bastion of secularism) and possibly replaced them with Islamist soldiers.

 

In the meantime, for instance, this :

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-45534483

 

And, where is the outrage from the West, especially the UK ? None whatsoever !  

 

These are really sad times for me as an anti-fascist Turk. Very sad !

 

 

[friendofthai]

On 9/18/2018 at 8:55 PM, Morch said:

 

There are far more civilians, though.

Hypocrisy 80lvl. Nobody really think about civilians at any war.

[simple1]

9 hours ago, JemJem said:

 

So, those people/reports say that Erdogan's army will cleanse the Islamist terrorists ?! Do you, for example, believe that ? I personally don't. I don't believe in the Turkish army's sincerity when they say they are fighting jihadis ? By the way, I am sure that you know that Erdogan has, especially in the past 2 years or so, kicked out as many secularists as possible from the Turkish army (once, a bastion of secularism) and possibly replaced them with Islamist soldiers.

 

In the meantime, for instance, this :

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-45534483

 

And, where is the outrage from the West, especially the UK ? None whatsoever !  

 

These are really sad times for me as an anti-fascist Turk. Very sad !

 

 

Have to wait and see whether the Turkish military will commit to taking on the Islamist terror groups in Idlib to create a limited safe area for civilians. I would of thought it is in their interest to do so, but...

 

Yes the ex UK military guy situation is very unfortunate. Unsure of UK government position, but in Australia it is officially illegal to fight with a non State actor such as YPG, though so far not imprisoned when returning after fighting alongside YPG taking on IS.

Edited September 20, 2018 by simple1

[Morch]

6 hours ago, friendofthai said:

Hypocrisy 80lvl. Nobody really think about civilians at any war.

 

If you say so....

[bristolboy]

On 9/20/2018 at 6:17 PM, JemJem said:

 

So, those people/reports say that Erdogan's army will cleanse the Islamist terrorists ?! Do you, for example, believe that ? I personally don't. I don't believe in the Turkish army's sincerity when they say they are fighting jihadis ? By the way, I am sure that you know that Erdogan has, especially in the past 2 years or so, kicked out as many secularists as possible from the Turkish army (once, a bastion of secularism) and possibly replaced them with Islamist soldiers.

 

In the meantime, for instance, this :

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-45534483

 

And, where is the outrage from the West, especially the UK ? None whatsoever !  

 

These are really sad times for me as an anti-fascist Turk. Very sad !

 

 

It's important to remember the other major motivation for Erdogan's desire to work with the Russians:

"The accord means that Turkey will increase its military stake in northern Syria, but it can only do so safely under license from Moscow. The priority for Turkey is to prevent the creation of a Kurdish statelet under US protection in Syria and for this it needs Russian cooperation. It was the withdrawal of the Russian air umbrella protecting the Kurdish enclave of Afrin earlier this year that enabled the Turkish army to invade and take it over."

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-ceasefire-turkey-russia-erdogan-putin-trump-a8548871.html

 The brutal success of that operation depended in part upon Turkey's use of Islamist shock troops. Now it's resettling the area with Arabs and making it very difficult for Kurdish locals to return. Once the Idlib statelet is subdued one way or another, Turkish and Syrian attention will be turned towards the Kurds. Turkey may very well acquire more shock troops.