Disorder, deal or dead-end: How will Brexit play out?

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, Sir Dude said:

Well Chompy...a refreshing change that you are laughing instead of usually being confused. Renaissances are not just something that happen to other people...lol

When you go from posting confused diatribes to posting laughable nonsense, I change my response accordingly.

 

Thanks for letting me know you got the message.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

The European Commission is responsible for proposing legislation, spending the lion's share of the budget and overseeing approved legislation, programmes and expenditure and represents the EU in trade agreements.

The Commission also decides on competition policy in Europe, e.g, whether state subsidies should be approved, and whether mergers should go ahead.

The British people don't elect the EC. The British people elect MEPs, of which the UK has 72 out of 750+ in the parliament.

The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.

 

Whilst in the EU we definitely have limited powers over legislation.

 

However, I do agree things have been exaggerated  - but on both sides of the argument

“The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.”

 

Reference please.

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Lots of right wing Brexiters are not to shy to open their mouth wide all the time - especially with criticizing other people.

Maybe someone would take these Brexiters serious if they would present this wonderful technology.

Where are they hiding it? Who is holding them back that they can't present it?

 

There is no plan.

 

There is no "rabbit" to pull out of the hat.

 

They're all pumped full of emotion, disappointment and nostalgia for a lost dominance/empire.

 

Living on a fantasy of a resurgent greatness, but without that upon which the old one was founded.......stolen Spanish treasure, the Transatlantic Slave Trade, the Industrial Revolution, maritime supremacy, a vast, colonial/imperial captive market.

 

Yesterdays people.

 

 

[baboon]

May is about to make a statement. Sounds ominous...

[Enoon]

4 minutes ago, baboon said:

May is about to make a statement. Sounds ominous...

 

A statement being made ahead of the Conservative Party Conference, beginning September 3Oth.

 

She will insist that "the lady is not for turning".

 

 

[baboon]

1 minute ago, Enoon said:

 

A statement being made ahead of the Conservative Party Conference, beginning September 3Oth.

 

She will insist that "the lady is not for turning".

 

 

Yep, more brinkmanship. Nothing really to see here...

[Chomper Higgot]

8 minutes ago, baboon said:

May is about to make a statement. Sounds ominous...

To be followed shortly by Boris contradicting what she said. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Sterling should come back once the uncertainty goes away. But I appreciate it must be difficult right now for those in that situation.

 

Just in:

Quote

The pound drops 1.2% against the dollar as Theresa May says that Britain and EU are at an "impasse" on Brexit negotiations bloom.bg/2NuAepk

 

[CharlieH]

Post of incorrect format removed.

 

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.

 

 

The British government has voted against EU laws 2% of the time since 1999

Official EU voting records* show that the British government has voted ‘No’ to laws passed at EU level on 56 occasions, abstained 70 times, and voted ‘Yes’ 2,466 times since 1999, according to UK in a Changing Europe Fellows Sara Hagemann and Simon Hix.

In other words, UK ministers were on the “winning side” 95% of the time, abstained 3% of the time, and were on the losing side 2%.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influence/

[CG1 Blue]

14 minutes ago, oilinki said:

  3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Sterling should come back once the uncertainty goes away. But I appreciate it must be difficult right now for those in that situation.

 

14 minutes ago, oilinki said:

  Quote

The pound drops 1.2% against the dollar as Theresa May says that Britain and EU are at an "impasse" on Brexit negotiations bloom.bg/2NuAepk

Which proves my point.  Uncertainty causes the problem.

[CG1 Blue]

Just now, bristolboy said:

The British government has voted against EU laws 2% of the time since 1999

Official EU voting records* show that the British government has voted ‘No’ to laws passed at EU level on 56 occasions, abstained 70 times, and voted ‘Yes’ 2,466 times since 1999, according to UK in a Changing Europe Fellows Sara Hagemann and Simon Hix.

In other words, UK ministers were on the “winning side” 95% of the time, abstained 3% of the time, and were on the losing side 2%.

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influence/

Correct.  And I think it was another 16 times prior to 1999, making a total of 72.

The point being that we can be overruled on legislation that is not in our best interests.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

 

Which proves my point.  Uncertainty causes the problem.

No. Uncertainty gives hope for pound. No deal brexit drops it's value down. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

As I understand it, Norway / Sweden rely on technology for customs checks. I'd say the UK could come up with something very robust, given our excellent tech track record. But, this is not being given the light of day.

 

I suspect (as many others do) that the EU and the Remain establishment don't want the border issue to be resolved this easily.

 

I'm quite curious how the technology would actually work.

 

Scandinavian countries (Fin, Swe, Nor, Den, Ice) have had own union since forever. We haven't needed passports to travel between our countries. There has not been requirements for work permits etc. The couple of times I worked in Sweden, 25 years ago, I didn't even knew that work permit is a thing. I didn't knew that there can be limit how long one can stay in another country.

 

Border crossings have always been a walk through or doing the Queens wave to the border officers, when crossing the border in a car. That's when the border officers had bothered to come outside to say hi. 

 

I don't know what is the current situation between Norway and it's neighbours, but I would guess it's as relaxed as it was before. 

 

Is the situation between Ireland - Northern Ireland border similar historically? 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

40 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Correct.  And I think it was another 16 times prior to 1999, making a total of 72.

The point being that we can be overruled on legislation that is not in our best interests.

You’re not getting away with that.

 

Your statement was:

 

“The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.”

 

Produce a reference to your claim that on the occasions the U.K. voted against EU legislation it was passed.

[CG1 Blue]

18 minutes ago, oilinki said:

No. Uncertainty gives hope for pound. No deal brexit drops it's value down. 

No disrespect, but if this is what you think, you don't know the currency markets.

[mommysboy]

Beginning to think Brexit won't happen.  The tide is turning at large.  Parliament will block any deal that falls short of a free trade deal, and rightly so since that was promised repeatedly.

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

No disrespect, but if this is what you think, you don't know the currency markets.

Apart from every statement indicating hard Brexit results in a drop in the pound, ongoing confusion over any kind of a deal results in the pound recovering.

[bristolboy]

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

No disrespect, but if this is what you think, you don't know the currency markets.

So you think that in the case of a hard brexit will strengthen the pound because there will be no uncertainty? Don't you think that the consensus that a hard brexit will hurt Britains economic performance will have some bearing on the pound?

[CG1 Blue]

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You’re not getting away with that.

 

Your statement was:

 

“The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.”

 

Produce a reference to your claim that on the occasions the U.K. voted against EU legislation it was passed.

I don't need to.  The information is in the public domain. Try google.

[CG1 Blue]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

So you think that in the case of a hard brexit will strengthen the pound because there will be no uncertainty? Don't you think that the consensus that a hard brexit will hurt Britains economic performance will have some bearing on the pound?

Yes, while the full impact of a hard Brexit is still unknown, the pound will weaken every time it looks like 'no deal'.

There is a lot of speculation about the negative impact of a hard Brexit (from the Remain establishment), and that's not helping.

If we exit without a deal it will take a while for the impact to become known. Then things will steady (assuming no other external factors).

Currency speculators don't want to hold a currency with uncertainty surrounding the country. So they sell, and the value falls.

[CG1 Blue]

18 minutes ago, oilinki said:

I'm quite curious how the technology would actually work.

 

Scandinavian countries (Fin, Swe, Nor, Den, Ice) have had own union since forever. We haven't needed passports to travel between our countries. There has not been requirements for work permits etc. The couple of times I worked in Sweden, 25 years ago, I didn't even knew that work permit is a thing. I didn't knew that there can be limit how long one can stay in another country.

 

Border crossings have always been a walk through or doing the Queens wave to the border officers, when crossing the border in a car. That's when the border officers had bothered to come outside to say hi. 

 

I don't know what is the current situation between Norway and it's neighbours, but I would guess it's as relaxed as it was before. 

 

Is the situation between Ireland - Northern Ireland border similar historically? 

 

 

There are no real border checks on the Irish border currently. My Irish colleague and I discuss this almost daily. He tells me you could take a car journey along one road, and criss-cross the border several times without even knowing it.

 

Technology I suppose would be some sort of enhanced ANPR system, plus other checks away from the border. Combined with the Trusted Trader arrangements. I think.

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Yes, while the full impact of a hard Brexit is still unknown, the pound will weaken every time it looks like 'no deal'.

There is a lot of speculation about the negative impact of a hard Brexit (from the Remain establishment), and that's not helping.

If we exit without a deal it will take a while for the impact to become known. Then things will steady (assuming no other external factors).

Currency speculators don't want to hold a currency with uncertainty surrounding the country. So they sell, and the value falls.

The question is at what level with things steady. It seems from all indications a lower one.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

No disrespect, but if this is what you think, you don't know the currency markets.

You are right. I'm not a member of seal team six, SAS, Bitcoin community or currency traders.

 

However I'm assuming that currencies fluctuates during uncertainty and currencies do drop or rise, when there is certainty of the future. 

 

In this case, when the prognostications indicates that no-deal is likely result of these negotiations, the value of British pound drops. It's an indication where the pound is heading at when the no deal becomes a written reality. At that point we'll see further drops of it's value. 

 

But as you said, I don't know currency markets.

[CG1 Blue]

13 minutes ago, oilinki said:

You are right. I'm not a member of seal team six, SAS, Bitcoin community or currency traders.

 

However I'm assuming that currencies fluctuates during uncertainty and currencies do drop or rise, when there is certainty of the future. 

 

In this case, when the prognostications indicates that no-deal is likely result of these negotiations, the value of British pound drops. It's an indication where the pound is heading at when the no deal becomes a written reality. At that point we'll see further drops of it's value. 

 

But as you said, I don't know currency markets.

A deal on trade and other arrangements = some certainty

No deal = lots of uncertainty

 

News pointing toward the latter is bound to have a negative impact on the pound.

There are positive impacts from 'no deal' that the are naturally ignored by Remain leaning establishment bodies (IMF etc.).

 

I hope a deal is agreed, but if not I think the UK can prosper without one.

[CG1 Blue]

23 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The question is at what level with things steady. It seems from all indications a lower one.

Indications, yes. We'll have to wait and see what reality brings.

[damascase]

38 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You’re not getting away with that.

 

Your statement was:

 

“The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.”

 

Produce a reference to your claim that on the occasions the U.K. voted against EU legislation it was passed.

And even where legislation was passed against which the UK voted: the  elected governments of the Member States - including the UK - have decided on which issues unanimity is required and on which a qualified majority is sufficient. So one cannot really complain when sometimes legislation is passed with which you don’t agree. That happens every day in national parliaments too, when the opposition to a proposal cannot collect sufficient votes to stop it. Nothing illegal or unethic, just democracy at work.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

There are positive impacts from 'no deal' that the are naturally ignored by Remain leaning establishment bodies (IMF etc.).

You need to define these positive impacts of no deal.

[mommysboy]

6 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

A deal on trade and other arrangements = some certainty

No deal = lots of uncertainty

 

News pointing toward the latter is bound to have a negative impact on the pound.

There are positive impacts from 'no deal' that the are naturally ignored by Remain leaning establishment bodies (IMF etc.).

 

I hope a deal is agreed, but if not I think the UK can prosper without one.

'I think the UK can prosper without one.'

 

Sure, but the electorate was told to expect a free trade deal. I don't think anything that falls short will be acceptable.

 

Brexiters need to come up with the goods.  Failure is not an option.  Macron spoke sense.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

Correct.  And I think it was another 16 times prior to 1999, making a total of 72.

The point being that we can be overruled on legislation that is not in our best interests.

The question is, how many times your personal view has been voted against in your local council or in British parliament. In democracy we try to get what we want, but it's not always the case.

 

If British parliament loses only 2% of what it wants, that's pretty incredible good record.