Dow down 1,000, should we be worried ?

[Naam]

3 minutes ago, xylophone said:

In the great depression, there was well over a decade of poor sharemarket performance, yet at sometime around 15 years after that started, peoples investments turned positive and if they were lucky enough to catch the upturn about the end of the Second World War, then they were in heaven with the growth which ensued.

that's soothing balm for those thaivisa members age 60s and 70s who believe in stocks and mutual funds.

[xylophone]

2 minutes ago, Naam said:

that's soothing balm for those thaivisa members age 60s and 70s who believe in stocks and mutual funds.

Too quick Naam as was editing my post, but on to your comment................at the ages you posted, investors should take into consideration their age and remaining time frames and have adjusted their portfolios to reflect a more conservative approach, this esp if they are retired/don't have a steady income/don't have a way to top up their finances should a slump occur.

 

Older folks riding the bull market should have been out now and adjusted their portfolios to a more conservative approach.

[janclaes47]

10 hours ago, SheungWan said:

I recall a friend transferring a significant amount of cash to AUD in order to benefit from high interest rates. As far as he was concerned it was a no-brainer. And then all that interest was wiped out (and more) with the dive in the Australian dollar.

 

A currency that pays much higher interests than other currencies is a no brainer that that the currency is under pressure and will devalue.

 

If he didn't move out of the AUD yet, he will be in for another 10% decline I presume

[Naam]

9 hours ago, mogandave said:

10 hours ago, dreaming said:

Bitcoin is still up from 2 years ago 300%. Dow jones only 20%

Good point.

Bitcoin is down from 1 year ago 80%, Dow is down 9% and i am glad having not touched any stocks/shares for 40 years.

[mogandave]

Bitcoin is down from 1 year ago 80%, Dow is down 9% and i am glad having not touched any stocks/shares for 40 years.

Fortunately for me o bought at $10.75 and sold at $17,000.

[SheungWan]

15 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

A currency that pays much higher interests than other currencies is a no brainer that that the currency is under pressure and will devalue.

If he didn't move out of the AUD yet, he will be in for another 10% decline I presume

Well maybe. At the time the higher AUS interest rates were seen by some as a good deal. Relatively stable economy and political system, good supply of mineral resources and supply of same to a fast growing China economy. The decision to convert GBP to AUD was considered the no-brainer. Another 10% down? I don't know, but personally I will not be playing in this pool again. I think my friend will sit on his AUD for as long as he can, but it might be a long wait.

[mogandave]

If “experts” knew how currencies were going to move, everyone would be in the same currency....

[SheungWan]

3 minutes ago, mogandave said:

If “experts” knew how currencies were going to move, everyone would be in the same currency....

'er, no.

[mogandave]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

'er, no.

Really? So they KNOW when a currency is going to get stronger yet they choose to not take advantage of it.

 

Interesting. 

[Thailand J]

getting very ugly, luckily i have my money in index funds VTI VOO and also Berkshire Hathaway, down not too much year to date. VTI and VOO may be -10%, BRK/B -2.6%.

Yes I still think it is a correction, not a market crash. with forward P/E about 15+ and PEG<1.0 ( Yardeni Research) I am not worried.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by Thailand J

[mogandave]

Yes, fortunately for me, I converted all my equities to bonds back in August...

[Thailand J]

I sold a big chunk of my equities in Oct, now I have  a supersized capital gain tax bill..you just can't win.

 

[strikingsunset]

i don’t want to look at the decline these days - it Christmas must be 14 per cent from the peak of last September - just have to wait a few years for it to come back - hopefully it will...


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[theguyfromanotherforum]

 Stocks down, baht up.

 

Sometimes I do think Thai economy is invincible.

[Thailand J]

10 hours ago, strikingsunset said:

just have to wait a few years for it to come back - hopefully it will...

S&P 500 Index is at 2351 (Dec 25, 18).

2018 EPS is $163. 2019 EPS is expected to be $168-178. Using a fair P/E of 15, and the lowest estimate of  $168, 15x168=2520, meaning 2019 S&P 500 could be higher then what we have today with the lowest earning estimate. The market may continue to be volatile but I believe the down side is limited. Wall Street is more optimistic about 2019:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-stocks-suffer-a-december-rout-wall-street-strategists-bet-on-2019-gains-2018-12-22

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/12/24/stock-market-forecast-2019/2390483002/

 

Edited December 25, 2018 by Thailand J

[SheungWan]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:53 PM, Thailand J said:

I sold a big chunk of my equities in Oct, now I have  a supersized capital gain tax bill..you just can't win.

If you have a supersized capital gain tax, it will be because you have a supersized capital gain!

[strikingsunset]

Dow Jones up 1086 points ( 4.98 pc) today - never seen that upside in one day...


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[janclaes47]

Anyone who isn't worried when a stock market moves 3% every day, one day to the upside and the following day to the downside rinse and repeat, should have his head checked.

[SheungWan]

25 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

Anyone who isn't worried when a stock market moves 3% every day, one day to the upside and the following day to the downside rinse and repeat, should have his head checked.

If one doesn't want to experience volatility then don't play would be the advice. It is the price of admission.

[SheungWan]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:35 PM, mogandave said:

Yes, fortunately for me, I converted all my equities to bonds back in August...

Rear-view mirrors are great when its a winner.

[janclaes47]

1 minute ago, SheungWan said:

If one doesn't want to experience volatility then don't play would be the advice. It is the price of admission.

From the same guy who brought us...

 

On 12/22/2018 at 3:19 PM, SheungWan said:

I might be excellent advising others what to do, but with my own trading I am and have been rubbish.

[SheungWan]

53 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

From the same guy who brought us...

Trading is not pain-free. 

[mogandave]

Anyone who isn't worried when a stock market moves 3% every day, one day to the upside and the following day to the downside rinse and repeat, should have his head checked.

I worry, but what is the alternative?

[strikingsunset]

I worry, but what is the alternative?

Very good point - i dived in late in 2008 as i was sick of barely 1pc interest on uk cash accounts.its been a good run, wish i had cashed out 4 months ago - “ hindsight perfect vision” again ........TINA - there is no alternative...


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[strikingsunset]

I worry, but what is the alternative?

Very good point - i dived in late in 2008 as i was sick of barely 1pc interest on uk cash accounts.its been a good run, wish i had cashed out 4 months ago - “ hindsight perfect vision” again ........TINA - there is no alternative...


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[Patriot1066]

On 1/5/2019 at 9:57 AM, strikingsunset said:

 

Very good point - i dived in late in 2008 as i was sick of barely 1pc interest on uk cash accounts.its been a good run, wish i had cashed out 4 months ago - “ hindsight perfect vision” again ........TINA - there is no alternative...


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I cashed a lot of stuff a few months ago, but not all when the China trade disputes started, not that I don’t agree with the sentiments of fairer trade with China. I  was lucky as usually get timings very wrong. The UK interests rates are still deplorable 10 years on, but until the pound devalued inflation was also low, even with decent inflation even the best accounts are below 1%. Stocks go up and down it’s quiet normal and some stocks have looked very over valued compared to real earnings. Biggest worry is my pension values as they are linked to shares and little I can do.

[topt]

11 hours ago, Patriot1066 said:

even the best accounts are below 1%

The best accounts have been above 1% for a while. You may want to look here -

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/savings-accounts-best-interest/

 

 

[strikingsunset]

i know- but it’s not enough, surely with inflation we need at least 4per cent to stand still.


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[mogandave]

i know- but it’s not enough, surely with inflation we need at least 4per cent to stand still.


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So bite the bullet and jump in.

[strikingsunset]

So bite the bullet and jump in.

As said earlier in this thread i jumped in - in 2008 and i’m still doggy paddling around...


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