Thaksin’s clout has clearly dissipated

By The Nation

 

 

Opinion surveys show the self-exiled former PM can no longer count on a unified front to secure his revenge on the generals
 

Fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra will be testing his mettle once again in the general election likely to be held early next year. This time, his potential nominees for the premiership are Sudarat Keyuraphun and Jaturon Chaisaeng, who respectively chair the campaign-strategy committees of the Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart parties.

 

Thaksin’s long-lasting clout among the grassroots population is well known among all career politicians and former military men-turned politicians. After spending years in self-imposed exile overseas to avoid criminal punishment, the ex-premier is expected to fight again, even though his edge has dulled over time.

 

The latest polls show that the 30-baht-universal healthcare scheme and village funds introduced by the original Thaksin administration in the early 2000s remain among the most enduring policies in the minds of his supporters.

 

These two policies not only remain intact, but also have been significantly expanded by the current Prayut government. Besides the universal healthcare coverage, the junta-led government has given more state subsidies to at least 11 million low-income people across the nation in the form of free but limited transportation and electricity, plus a small amount of monthly cash.

 

The formerly popular village funds have also been expanded into “people’s banks” via new legislation that will be implemented with the help of the Government Savings Bank and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.

 

Politically, there is nothing wrong with emulating your rivals’ successful platform along with other efforts to win at the polls. But a key question is whether Thaksin’s brand remains formidable despite a series of efforts to undermine it over the past four years. Has the Thaksin brand really weakened significantly over time and is it unlikely to win enough votes to prevent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return to power following the election?

 

According to Rangsit University’s latest polling, Thaksin has suffered from the exodus of too many competent persons and dubious activities inside his various political parties, namely the Thai Rak Thai, Palang Pachachon and Pheu Thai parties, which were in turn the originators of previous populist policies.

 

The Rangsit survey further found that Thaksin’s parties no longer held the advantage in terms of social media and other communication technology. Third, the image of Thaksin’s parties was badly damaged by the Yingluck Shinawatra administration’s rice-pledging scheme, which resulted in massive corruption. 

 

Fourth, there are now too many factions within Thaksin’s parties, making it more challenging for him to control the levers from overseas. Last but not least, other political parties have gained more confidence over the past years to ensure anyone’s bet on the return of Prayut as prime minister.

 

They could well muster enough votes to support the former Army chief as an elected premier.

 

In this context, a growing number of key figures who previously worked with Thaksin have switched camps to work for Prayut’s comeback, joining multiple political parties. Meanwhile the incumbent also has an advantage in the Senate thanks to the constitution his government introduced.

 

One of the biggest drivers for Prayut’s return is the Palang Pracharat Party, whose leaders are members of the Prayut Cabinet and spent years expanding on and fine-tuning policies that have had the biggest impression on grassroots voters.

 

As a result, the odds against Thaksin’s parties succeeding at the polls appear to have dwindled considerably this time around.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30359487

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-11-29

It is almost certain that Thaksin's influence has diminished; this is not a brilliant insight on your part, Nation.

 

You cite several reasons for the diminished influence, but your analysis as to 'why' seems quite lacking. You do not mention military coup(s), you do not mention the utilization and abuse of the legal system to systematically go after all the 'Reds' and/or party members, you do not mention the immunity granted to the coup-makers, you do not mention re-writing the constitution, you do not mention the politicization and degradation of the NACC into a political 'hit' agency on the part of the military, you do not mention the curbing and/or elimination of rights and freedoms, you do not mention the new opaqueness of the current regime, you do not mention stacking of "independent" agencies, you do not mention Article 44, etc etc, etc.

 

In sum, Thaksin has been hit, over and over again, by the cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

Would it be good to see the end of Thaksin's influence in Thai politics? Yes, I suspect it would be. Ironically, it is my view that if the Establishment had simply left him alone many years ago, he'd have been voted out by now, but that is a different story.

 

Thailand is likely better off without Thaksin's influence, but as long as his opponents (Prayut, the military, Prawit, the Junta, Suthep, Abhisit, etc etc etc) remain, Thailand will not get any better; there is good reason to think it'll actually get worse without a viable opposition.

 

Removing one part of a garbage dump while ignoring the rest does not make it smell any sweeter...

 

 

Thakins is akin to a dog with a bone, he will not let go his plans and ambitions to come back to Thailand under some sort of a pardon or "re trial" to clear his name and he's got the billions to put up and do it and he will keep trying until either he dies or runs out of money...

I live in Thailand most of the time. I have seen first hand the long term damage that Thaksin has done. The emphasis should be on "sin"

A few years ago, I was made to give an envelope to an official at a government office in order to transfer some property papers to my legally entitled wife. My wife paid the money. I don't know what amount was put in the envelope but I was out of pocket for 20,000 tbt. On a death settlement a few days ago, I visited the same place expecting the same deal. Surprise!

The title went though with a minimum of fuss. Big signs spoke of "no tips". The cost to my wife was about 8,000 tbt.

Even she spoke of her good luck and have the present govt has bought radical change for the better.

I hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

21 minutes ago, Prissana Pescud said:

I live in Thailand most of the time. I have seen first hand the long term damage that Thaksin has done. The emphasis should be on "sin"

A few years ago, I was made to give an envelope to an official at a government office in order to transfer some property papers to my legally entitled wife. My wife paid the money. I don't know what amount was put in the envelope but I was out of pocket for 20,000 tbt. On a death settlement a few days ago, I visited the same place expecting the same deal. Surprise!

The title went though with a minimum of fuss. Big signs spoke of "no tips". The cost to my wife was about 8,000 tbt.

Even she spoke of her good luck and have the present govt has bought radical change for the better.

I hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

????

On Q the Thaivisa anti Thaksin Poster Team appears. Go Team Go! 

 

The Nation always seems a little too desperate with these ... 'Thaksins Toast' Op/Ed pieces. Only been putting them up since 2006, so sooner or later they are going to be right.    

On Q the Thaivisa anti Thaksin Poster Team appears. Go Team Go! 
 
The Nation always seems a little too desperate with these ... 'Thaksins Toast' Op/Ed pieces. Only been putting them up since 2006, so sooner or later they are going to be right.  [emoji106]  

I am anti Thaksin and anti junta so no way i will see good results from the election.

IMHO all sides are bad and only new blood will change things. The old ones have failed.

That said all the points brought up might be true or not. I just wait for the election to see who is right. If the PTP combined with her sister party get less then 48% then they are right, otherwise they are not.

I don't see an end to political violence until there are REAL checks and balances preventing politicians and generals from getting fat of the Thai treasury. Until that happens they all will fight for a place to put their snouts in the treasury.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

It is almost certain that Thaksin's influence has diminished; this is not a brilliant insight on your part, Nation.

Every Thai I know will still vote Thaksin.

And the General clearly thinks the same, otherwise, he'd be having an 'unweighted' election.

Thaksin has also been rather quiet as has is sister.   The future for Thailand does not look good.  Perhaps he is just bored and has new pursuits, or he does not want to incur the wrath of the all powerful..  Not hearing from him regularly would effect his popularity.  Mind you, he still garners huge local press coverage with every trip he takes or any facebook post

 

If the country elects the dull witted, wet blanket that is controlling the country now, you can hardly feel sorry for Thailand.  

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by yellowboat

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thaksin’s clout has clearly dissipated

 

Maybe...but the Shins continue to haunt the General....

 

 

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by Hayduke

3 hours ago, ezzra said:

Thakins is akin to a dog with a bone, he will not let go his plans and ambitions to come back to Thailand under some sort of a pardon or "re trial" to clear his name and he's got the billions to put up and do it and he will keep trying until either he dies or runs out of money...

Interesting point.

 

He was convicted and sentences to 2 years in jail on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority which surely cannot be 'pardoned', unless by his own cronies being in power and overriding the law. In this scenario Thailand moves backwards 10 steps.

 

And let's not forget the many outstanding charges still in progress including one case where several of his cronies are now in jail for long periods on well proven evidence.

 

Let's move forward please.  

25 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Interesting point.

 

He was convicted and sentences to 2 years in jail on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority which surely cannot be 'pardoned', unless by his own cronies being in power and overriding the law. In this scenario Thailand moves backwards 10 steps.

 

And let's not forget the many outstanding charges still in progress including one case where several of his cronies are now in jail for long periods on well proven evidence.

 

Let's move forward please.  

"on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority" and "on well proven evidence" ... 555 ... get real. You are talking about the Thai judicial system here where people get convicted on flimsiest of evidence and all the judges are in the pockets of the people that want the convictions.

Thaksin and sister abused their positions but every falang except me loves them. I live in the boonies in Thailand, home to the rice pledge scheme that meant many small plot  holders went bust. The promise of a computer to every school child where a few of the cronies children actually got one. The rice houses that were mostly empty or full of rotting rice. 

Wealthy land holders love the massive gains they made under the Thaksins, poor landholders are still paying their debts off or have lost their land to the wealthy landowners who purchased their land because of fraud. 

Thaksin and sister are multi millionaires. They never earned an honest dollar in their lives  

3 hours ago, Prissana Pescud said:

I live in Thailand most of the time. I have seen first hand the long term damage that Thaksin has done. The emphasis should be on "sin"

A few years ago, I was made to give an envelope to an official at a government office in order to transfer some property papers to my legally entitled wife. My wife paid the money. I don't know what amount was put in the envelope but I was out of pocket for 20,000 tbt. On a death settlement a few days ago, I visited the same place expecting the same deal. Surprise!

The title went though with a minimum of fuss. Big signs spoke of "no tips". The cost to my wife was about 8,000 tbt.

Even she spoke of her good luck and have the present govt has bought radical change for the better.

I hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

What a complete load of tosh!

So it's Thaksin's fault you had to pay some corrupt official 20K years back?

Dear me!

And now you pay 8k for some paperwork and it's the Junta who has made things better?

Get real!

You do realize there was corruption prior to Mr T?

3 hours ago, Prissana Pescud said:

Even she spoke of her good luck and have the present govt has bought radical change for the better.

I hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

Yeah, i can see where you get your opinions from.

The wife says...........

So it must be true.

Jesus Christ man!

You do realize that corruption is actually worse now under the Juntas than Mr T's time?

Zero accountability.

On serious purchases, Submarines, tanks, helicopters, military generals park in Hua Hin.

I could go on. Not small money. Ask your missus about those......

18 minutes ago, Prissana Pescud said:

Thaksin and sister abused their positions but every falang except me loves them. I live in the boonies in Thailand, home to the rice pledge scheme that meant many small plot  holders went bust. The promise of a computer to every school child where a few of the cronies children actually got one. The rice houses that were mostly empty or full of rotting rice. 

Wealthy land holders love the massive gains they made under the Thaksins, poor landholders are still paying their debts off or have lost their land to the wealthy landowners who purchased their land because of fraud. 

Thaksin and sister are multi millionaires. They never earned an honest dollar in their lives  

Jesus wept!

I just don't believe an educated Western man could come out with this horse crap.

Are you real?

Or from another parallel universe?

God give me strength. Some people.

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

It is almost certain that Thaksin's influence has diminished; this is not a brilliant insight on your part, Nation.

 

You cite several reasons for the diminished influence, but your analysis as to 'why' seems quite lacking. You do not mention military coup(s), you do not mention the utilization and abuse of the legal system to systematically go after all the 'Reds' and/or party members, you do not mention the immunity granted to the coup-makers, you do not mention re-writing the constitution, you do not mention the politicization and degradation of the NACC into a political 'hit' agency on the part of the military, you do not mention the curbing and/or elimination of rights and freedoms, you do not mention the new opaqueness of the current regime, you do not mention stacking of "independent" agencies, you do not mention Article 44, etc etc, etc.

 

In sum, Thaksin has been hit, over and over again, by the cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

Would it be good to see the end of Thaksin's influence in Thai politics? Yes, I suspect it would be. Ironically, it is my view that if the Establishment had simply left him alone many years ago, he'd have been voted out by now, but that is a different story.

 

Thailand is likely better off without Thaksin's influence, but as long as his opponents (Prayut, the military, Prawit, the Junta, Suthep, Abhisit, etc etc etc) remain, Thailand will not get any better; there is good reason to think it'll actually get worse without a viable opposition.

 

Removing one part of a garbage dump while ignoring the rest does not make it smell any sweeter...

 

 

I could not agree more, very well written

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

In this scenario Thailand moves backwards 10 steps.

Isn't that is where Thailand became in May 2014?

Now maybe only 7 steps backwards at best?

5 hours ago, webfact said:

the self-exiled former PM can no longer count on a unified front to secure his revenge on the generals

"revenge on the generals" - really?

Is that how the survey questions were worded?

I've never seen in print any such statement from either Thaksin or Yingluck.

If there has been a strategy of revenge or better yet a vendetta, it has been by the military leadership (and specifically the Eastern Tigers such as Prayut and Prawit) generals against the entire Shinawatra family.

1 hour ago, rtco said:

"on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority" and "on well proven evidence" ... 555 ... get real. You are talking about the Thai judicial system here where people get convicted on flimsiest of evidence and all the judges are in the pockets of the people that want the convictions.

actually you are being very hypocritical with that statement, thaksins cake box full of money that his lawyer tried to hand to the magistrate was rejected, seems you are ignoring the facts

55 minutes ago, rtco said:

"on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority" and "on well proven evidence" ... 555 ... get real. You are talking about the Thai judicial system here where people get convicted on flimsiest of evidence and all the judges are in the pockets of the people that want the convictions.

No I'm talking about fact. he broke the law, and important law to protect society from people in power. 

 

You mentioned "...you are talking about the Thai judicial system here where people get convicted on flimsiest of evidence and all the judges are in the pockets of the people that want the convictions." 

 

Well that's an interesting overriding comment and I have little doubt there is truth in your overriding comment.

 

However thaksin broke the law plain and simple, facts are facts.

 

His own party had massive power to sway the judiciary at that time, so how come they didn't get into the pockets of the judges? They didn't, it was plain to see he broke the law, facts are facts.

 

Further, as above his own party had massive power at that time and not afraid to do whatever they felt like. But are you saying that another 'party' wanted thaksin convicted and that 'other party' had the power to override thaksin's massive power base at that time (and the massive power base his cronies etc., held at that time, including no hesitation to frighten and intimidate)?

 

Back to the bottom line. He broke the law, plain for everybody to see. And IMHO at that time he was of mindset 'I can do whatever I want and I will do whatever I want, regardless of the law'.

 

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Every Thai I know will still vote Thaksin.

And the General clearly thinks the same, otherwise, he'd be having an 'unweighted' election.

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

1 hour ago, rtco said:

"on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority" and "on well proven evidence" ... 555 ... get real. You are talking about the Thai judicial system here where people get convicted on flimsiest of evidence and all the judges are in the pockets of the people that want the convictions.

Thaksins mistake was not to pass a law stating he was innocent of everything for all time while he was PM.

The General has learnt from that mistake.

19 minutes ago, seajae said:

actually you are being very hypocritical with that statement, thaksins cake box full of money that his lawyer tried to hand to the magistrate was rejected, seems you are ignoring the facts

 

Of course he's ignoring the facts - Thaksin fans always do! Even Thaksin and his lawyers never disputed what he did. He tried to say it was a silly rule that shouldn't apply to someone as great as himself, offered to cancel the deal, and then tried to bribe the judges which resulted in his lawyer being jailed. 

 

No doubt he thinks Thaksin is innocent of all those other charges too, like the KT bank fraud for which other co-defendants who couldn't do a runner have been convicted and received lengthy sentences.

4 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

You think the headman will write the ballot papers for the uneducated village people and put them in the ballot boxes for them? Just asking. 

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Thaksins mistake was not to pass a law stating he was innocent of everything for all time while he was PM.

The General has learnt from that mistake.

 

He would've if he could have gotten away with it! He never had the muscle to get something like that through whereas other seemingly have.

 

Hun Sen is a good example of what you can do if you can control the government, parliament, the judiciary and the military.

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

You think the headman will write the ballot papers for the uneducated village people and put them in the ballot boxes for them? Just asking. 

 

No.

15 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

Lao ethnic people (33%) vote Thaksin.

Siam ethnic people (33%) vote for the General.

All the other ethnic minorities (33%) vote Thaksin.

 

Then the Siam ethnic minority overthrow the elected government by force (10x already). This is the way it is and the way it always has been. Thailand is a deeply divided population ruled by force from the elite Siam families.

Edited November 29, 20187 yr by BritManToo

38 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said:

What a complete load of tosh!

So it's Thaksin's fault you had to pay some corrupt official 20K years back?

Dear me!

And now you pay 8k for some paperwork and it's the Junta who has made things better?

Get real!

You do realize there was corruption prior to Mr T?

Yeah, i can see where you get your opinions from.

The wife says...........

So it must be true.

Jesus Christ man!

You do realize that corruption is actually worse now under the Juntas than Mr T's time?

Zero accountability.

On serious purchases, Submarines, tanks, helicopters, military generals park in Hua Hin.

I could go on. Not small money. Ask your missus about those......

Jesus wept!

I just don't believe an educated Western man could come out with this horse crap.

Are you real?

Or from another parallel universe?

God give me strength. Some people.

Well you love taking the lords name in vain. That much is established.

Thankfully you were not talking about the Lord Buddha.

But just to wise you up, I have lived here a long time. Corruption still exists but I can say that in every department that has to do with farangs, there is a sign. No Tips.

And they no longer take tips in my experience. That is my experience, not yours.

As for submarines, tanks, helicopters, have you seen how much Australia is paying for a dud fighter plane that is already obselete.

Every country has a right to defend themselves, Australia has no threat but it still has a military force to sting any one.

And yes Thaksin regime allowed open corruption. It is all under the table now. As for the 8k, that was land tax, I would have paid much more for 3 rai in Australia.

And that your not my friend is the truth and you have a phobia.

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

It is almost certain that Thaksin's influence has diminished; this is not a brilliant insight on your part, Nation.

 

You cite several reasons for the diminished influence, but your analysis as to 'why' seems quite lacking. You do not mention military coup(s), you do not mention the utilization and abuse of the legal system to systematically go after all the 'Reds' and/or party members, you do not mention the immunity granted to the coup-makers, you do not mention re-writing the constitution, you do not mention the politicization and degradation of the NACC into a political 'hit' agency on the part of the military, you do not mention the curbing and/or elimination of rights and freedoms, you do not mention the new opaqueness of the current regime, you do not mention stacking of "independent" agencies, you do not mention Article 44, etc etc, etc.

 

In sum, Thaksin has been hit, over and over again, by the cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

Would it be good to see the end of Thaksin's influence in Thai politics? Yes, I suspect it would be. Ironically, it is my view that if the Establishment had simply left him alone many years ago, he'd have been voted out by now, but that is a different story.

 

Thailand is likely better off without Thaksin's influence, but as long as his opponents (Prayut, the military, Prawit, the Junta, Suthep, Abhisit, etc etc etc) remain, Thailand will not get any better; there is good reason to think it'll actually get worse without a viable opposition.

 

Removing one part of a garbage dump while ignoring the rest does not make it smell any sweeter...

 

 

 

Interesting point you make regarding the NACC. Isn't creating a political attack dog exactly what the Shins did with the DSI under the now never seen Tarit? Ably assisted by the dubious Chalerm?

Same same but different.

 

Indeed, until the lots cleared up, nothing will really change. Just the players moving around the musical chairs.

 

But looking around, this game, of the rich and politicians benefiting themselves seems to be happening all over. I despair of some of the corrupt politicians in the UK who somehow seem above the law with the connivance of the police who don't want to know or do their duty. 

 

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Lao ethnic people (33%) vote Thaksin.

Siam ethnic people (33%) vote for the General.

All the other ethnic minorities (33%) vote Thaksin.

 

Then the Siam ethnic minority overthrow the elected government by force (10x already). This is the way it is and the way it always has been. Thailand is a deeply divided population ruled by force from the elite Siam families.

 

Do you have the source citation for your % split please?

 

 

6 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 Thailand will not get any better; there is good reason to think it'll actually get worse without a viable opposition.

 

 

 

Looking forward to plenty of "opposition".

 

But not in the puppet parliament resulting from the sham election.

 

This is the "New Era".