Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[welovesundaysatspace]

The head of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn, said the UK was “in the emergency zone of Brexit now” and that more delays could not just affect jobs and investment, but harm the UK as a business destination in the long term.

“We know that businesses are leaving the country, we know that businesses are making plans that would damage communities across the country,” she told Sky’s Sophie Ridge on Sunday show. “I think that the bigger thing that is going on is that there is also a real recalibration, if you like, of what the UK is like as a place to invest.”

[tomacht8]

27 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

The head of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn, said the UK was “in the emergency zone of Brexit now” and that more delays could not just affect jobs and investment, but harm the UK as a business destination in the long term.

“We know that businesses are leaving the country, we know that businesses are making plans that would damage communities across the country,” she told Sky’s Sophie Ridge on Sunday show. “I think that the bigger thing that is going on is that there is also a real recalibration, if you like, of what the UK is like as a place to invest.”

Understandable.

The companies want to make money. Of course, this also creates jobs. Companies need long-term stable framework conditions such as laws, clear tax law, regulated market access conditions, calculable reliability and political stability. Location decisions and business plans are calculated in very long Terms. 

Planning periods of 8-20 years are not uncommon here. Which investor would build a complete automobile plant here on the greenfield for many billions without planning security.

 

The return of the investment is calculated here over decades. The whole Brexit drama has pulled out the carpet under the feets from big Business here. If there is no meaningful agreement by the end of March, the economy will not collapse immediately. But the wave of emigration, relocation and decline in investment will visibly extend over the next 10 years.

[nontabury]

6 hours ago, bomber said:

dick sounds like a scrounger to me,having to rely on others at 47 is shocking,typical leave voter 

In 10yrs reading post on T.V.  Yours is the most nasty and disgusting post I have read. If you were half a man 555, you would issue a public apology.

Though I would’t hold my breath.

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

I don't think the EU want zero tariff insanitary goods flowing into the EU. That maybe Acceptable to the UK but not the EU

But in the real world, how would that actually happen? You're saying the UK would allow these insanitary goods in, and then people are going to want to take them across to NI, and then into the RoI? Please don't tell me this is going to happen with chlorinated chickens. 

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

7 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

As I understand it under Article 24 of the WTO, two parties can agree to maintain current tariff and custom arrangements for a reasonable period of time (2-10 years seems to be the expected period), to allow the two sides to work out their future trading relationship. 

 

This would mean that the UK could leave the EU as planned on 29th March with minimal disruption to trade, no issues with the Irish border, and have at least another 2 years to agree a comprehensive FTA with the EU. 

 

Article 24 would require both parties to sign up, and I can think of no reasons why the EU wouldn't agree to this. Perhaps they might insist on the UK continuing to pay some contributions to the EU budget. 

 

This seems like the ideal solution to me assuming it is true - and I've heard nobody disputing it so far. 

 

All 180 WTO members would have to agree.

 

Several are already against

 

basta

I don't think it requires agreement, as in sign off from those 180 members. A member could object, yes. But why would they do that and disrupt world trade? 

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

Good question 

 

If you strip out the outliers and adjust for linguistics, I would say typical Remainers are more knowledgeable even allowing for bias. But you would expect that. Look at the frequency of fallacies and misinterpretations. This gives me no joy; it worries me.

I disagree. There are plenty of fallacies and misinterpretations from Remainers on here. Perhaps you don't notice them as much because they're in your camp. 

 

And I'd also say one particular contributor on here is so uninformed but at the same time so vocal, he brings your average intelligence levels down by about 50%. I'm surprised none of you have had a private word with him...

 

(and yes I know you wanted outliers stripped out but I'm not allowing that ????)

[melvinmelvin]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

What do they mean by Great?

 

Big?

Wealthy?

Powerful?

 

or

 

Respected?

Admired?

Looked up to?

 

Fundamental differences

I think the dominating barstool view folds all 6 into their

desired prospective ripple ruling GB

 

will it become reality? remains to be seen

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, tebee said:

Basically art 24 says that if you have agreed a new FTA but not yet ratified/implemented it, you can apply those new tarrifs for   two years before you do , without compromising your most favoured nation status. IE you can start early.

 

It's nothing to do with the case where you've just ripped up your existing FTA 

Right, so both parties would have to commit to working toward a new zero tariff FTA by the time A24 is to be triggered.  So technically the new FTA would be in progress, no?

[bomber]

25 minutes ago, nontabury said:

In 10yrs reading post on T.V.  Yours is the most nasty and disgusting post I have read. If you were half a man 555, you would issue a public apology.

Though I would’t hold my breath.

why, i gave my reply as to what i thought,it seems i was correct.

[melvinmelvin]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

In this case I think most of what you say is wrong:

 

The line between being fired and resigning is pretty thin at this level - not really in this new, critical and strange situation. Point is, anyone with any self-respect will resign when they discover that their authority has been undermined throughout and that they have basically been wasting their time. May is the boss but people quit good jobs due to bad bosses every day. May's entitlement for respect has lost more and more validity since 2017. She should have resigned ages ago - I think that she wasn't ditched because her potential rivals are shying away from the Brexit mess - they don't like readymade cans of worms and the certainly don't love her.

 

Not sure about your piss artist bit but I'll sing along to that one if you like.

 

what I say is not wrong,

point is that you and I view this differently

 

my comment was made in light of protecting the supremacy of the PM and the cabinet,

almost at any cost, because, in my view, that is the kernel in the UK democracy

if PM and cabinet and their role is not respected by ministers you have problems

what dd and others do in the video is undermining the role of the cabinet - we puke at that

 

fully agree, TM should have resigned ages ago, there are ways to force people to resign,

Tory did not use them, they rallied behind her to secure her future PM ship, same did parliament.

I call it love.

 

[tebee]

31 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Right, so both parties would have to commit to working toward a new zero tariff FTA by the time A24 is to be triggered.  So technically the new FTA would be in progress, no?

No you'd need  to have the deal all worked out, but i's needing dotted and t's crossed.

 

If we get a transition period , we might be able to do this, but if we drop out with no deal, not a cat in hells chance

[CG1 Blue]

4 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

The head of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn, said the UK was “in the emergency zone of Brexit now” and that more delays could not just affect jobs and investment, but harm the UK as a business destination in the long term.

“We know that businesses are leaving the country, we know that businesses are making plans that would damage communities across the country,” she told Sky’s Sophie Ridge on Sunday show. “I think that the bigger thing that is going on is that there is also a real recalibration, if you like, of what the UK is like as a place to invest.”

The same CBI that has vested interests in the EU, receives funding from the EU, and as a lobbyist needs the EU.  The same CBI that told us we should join the Euro, and that we should enter the disastrous ERM. 

I think Fairbairn herself is a credible businesswoman. But she and the CBI cannot provide an impartial view on Brexit. 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

what I say is not wrong,

point is that you and I view this differently

 

my comment was made in light of protecting the supremacy of the PM and the cabinet,

almost at any cost, because, in my view, that is the kernel in the UK democracy

if PM and cabinet and their role is not respected by ministers you have problems

what dd and others do in the video is undermining the role of the cabinet - we puke at that

 

fully agree, TM should have resigned ages ago, there are ways to force people to resign,

Tory did not use them, they rallied behind her to secure her future PM ship, same did parliament.

I call it love.

 

to expand a bit, my comment is coloured by my experience and upbringing

in Norway we have a political setup somewhat different from what you have in UK

 

The role of PM/cabinet is somewhat different, the composition of the cabinet is the

PMs playground, its between PM and the monarch - in practice the PMs private play,

PM can pick MPs or anybody else as ministers, I actually think the PM could pick Farage

as EU minister, not sure but I think so, the cabinet is PMs play

as PM feels fit, parliament has no insight and no say in this.

The cabinet is a collegium, one for all, all for one. One voice. Stray from the cabinet line and

you can count your remaining time as a minister in hours. Normally no tolerance here, none.

So far I can not recall any criticism regarding this, not from politicians not from the public.

It seems to work and it seems people are comfortable with it.

Parliament's say: they no like what PM is composing - non conf and ditch.

Ditched ministers do not complain, lesson learned, mum, criticism may surface 5-10 years

later when they write their memoirs.

 

another difference,

our parliament is truly sovereign

have followed the Brexit circus in detail since before the referendum

I see so many signals emitting that the UK parliament is not sovereign, in particular

when it comes to procedural matters and processes.

Somewhat shocking for me to learn that the UK parliament is under the iron heel of the PM.

My upbringing, fully sovereign parliament at all times,

they stick their nose and poke their fingers into just anything they fancy, at any level,

whenever they feel like it - no limits. Easily ends up with PM/cabinet being instructed to

sort this and that out and report back to parliament in say 3 months.

 

Of course the parliament does not normally govern the cabinet in detail,

the parliament - PM/cabinet relationship is symbiotic, both give the other

party reasonable time to cater for their jobs and tasks.

Some times the temperature is going into the red sector, parliament can ditch if they want,

they can ditch 1 or 2 individual ministers or the whole cabinet, parliament's choice.

(or they can do a so called date decision, the most serious form of criticism short of non conf,

yes - date as the fruit - no, have no idea why its called a date decision, its serious and feared)

PM tool:

PM/cabinet burning for an issue, parliament is lukewarm. PM can move a so called cabinet question,

meaning - if parliament does not accept this, we go immediately-today.

This is kinda last resort tool, not used frequently, thankfully, sometimes it works,

it happens that it fails and the PM/cabinet vanishes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

right,

my comments that nauseus reacted negatively to should be seen in the light of the above

my intervention was mainly in order to protect the supremacy of the cabinet,

which I think is quite important

 

fan dii

 

[aright]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

The same CBI that has vested interests in the EU, receives funding from the EU, and as a lobbyist needs the EU.  The same CBI that told us we should join the Euro, and that we should enter the disastrous ERM. 

I think Fairbairn herself is a credible businesswoman. But she and the CBI cannot provide an impartial view on Brexit. 

 

 

I agree they are completely partial. The CBI not only represents British companies but also large global companies who don't give a damn about the UK they just want their global ambitions/interests protected. If you want to see the sort of people the CBI employ look up Paul Drechler who left Waites to  join them. Waites under his guidance saw a fall in turnover of 22% and pretax profits the lowest since 2005 and 263 redundancies. Nevertheless he left with £1.4 million in emoluments and a £7.4 million bonus. 1 year later he was criticizing British executives for long term pay and bonus deals.

A Remainer walked into a bar and the barman said "Why the long farce?" 

[melvinmelvin]

35 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

right,

my comments that nauseus reacted negatively to should be seen in the light of the above

my intervention was mainly in order to protect the supremacy of the cabinet,

which I think is quite important

 

fan dii

 

 

can't bloody sleep so I resort to bother you with some further rambling

 

another aspect with political management that differs from UK,

but I am not very comfortable with it

however, in this Brexit case what we do might have had a positive effect

 

we have king and we have King and we have king in King,

king is the present or previous monarchs

King is king in council, ie the king meeting with PM and the ministers.

 

normal routine:

every friday morning King is set, in the castle, chaired by the king

this is a decision making process - no arguing discussions, signing off new legislation,

ratifying treaties, appointing very high level civil servants

sometimes, rarely, questions are asked - king getting pissed off and rules that this doesn't

seem to be mature - back to the drawing board - very very embarassing for the minister in question.

The king is extremely up to date with politics, sharp as a double sided Japanese sword.

Sometimes he asks questions himself, mainly to satisfy his own lust for knowledge,

but also, I suspect, as a means to keep his council on their toes.

Ministers not able to respond adequately - blush.

Before

the present king's father - same same,

but he was very very interested in foreign policy and defence matters, and sharper than sharp

he asked questions - ministers not prepared that Friday morning, regretted that for the rest of their lives,

very humiliating - in particular because the monarch was way more informed than they were.

I am not comfortable with this setup - but it surely works, and it assures a certain level

of quality in ministerial decisions - might be useful in a Brexit scenario.

 

kings never interfere with the substance - they limit themselves to asking questions

 

I am not happy with the above setup, but it works very well due to the personality

of the current and the previous king,

very down to earth - very easy going and likeable chaps

and extremely sharp thinkers and very knowledgeable in politics.

 

in a Brexit situation, an upper checkpoint like this could prove useful.

 

[samran]

5 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I disagree. There are plenty of fallacies and misinterpretations from Remainers on here. Perhaps you don't notice them as much because they're in your camp. 

 

And I'd also say one particular contributor on here is so uninformed but at the same time so vocal, he brings your average intelligence levels down by about 50%. I'm surprised none of you have had a private word with him...

 

(and yes I know you wanted outliers stripped out but I'm not allowing that ????)

moi?

 

You know I get consulted on TAFTA a couple of times per year...

[samran]

5 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Right, so both parties would have to commit to working toward a new zero tariff FTA by the time A24 is to be triggered.  So technically the new FTA would be in progress, no?

Why would the EU offer the UK a zero tariff zero quota FTA? They have absolutely no incentive to now.

[welovesundaysatspace]

14 minutes ago, samran said:

Why would the EU offer the UK a zero tariff zero quota FTA? They have absolutely no incentive to now.

The easiest deal in history. Will be done over an afternoon tea. You remainers are so pessimistic. You need to believe in the opportunity. Chaka. 

[samran]

22 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

The easiest deal in history. Will be done over an afternoon tea. You remainers are so pessimistic. You need to believe in the opportunity. Chaka. 

Silly man, they need us more than we need them.

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

But in the real world, how would that actually happen? You're saying the UK would allow these insanitary goods in, and then people are going to want to take them across to NI, and then into the RoI? Please don't tell me this is going to happen with chlorinated chickens. 

Apparently we want zero import Tariffs. How does that sit with the EU tariffs that apply crossing the Irish border with no border?

 

The UK will certainly lower standards to please the Americans. How will such goods be stopped crossing the border into the EU?

 

Are you just being obtuse?

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I don't think it requires agreement, as in sign off from those 180 members. A member could object, yes. But why would they do that and disrupt world trade? 

To get competitive advantage. S Korea and Japan have already started

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I disagree. There are plenty of fallacies and misinterpretations from Remainers on here. Perhaps you don't notice them as much because they're in your camp. 

 

And I'd also say one particular contributor on here is so uninformed but at the same time so vocal, he brings your average intelligence levels down by about 50%. I'm surprised none of you have had a private word with him...

 

(and yes I know you wanted outliers stripped out but I'm not allowing that ????)

Ha! Fair enough but you know I'm right...

[Grouse]

6 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

I think the dominating barstool view folds all 6 into their

desired prospective ripple ruling GB

 

will it become reality? remains to be seen

 

 

Well the second three are already dead.

 

You seem to be moving closer to the Brexit cause which surprises me! Wasn't Quisling Norwegian?

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, Grouse said:

Good question 

 

If you strip out the outliers and adjust for linguistics, I would say typical Remainers are more knowledgeable even allowing for bias. But you would expect that. Look at the frequency of fallacies and misinterpretations. This gives me no joy; it worries me.

If you were to analyze the frequency of fallacies. misinterpretations and misrepresentations, with good anti-bias detection but without prejudice, then your main worry would be the discovery of Mount Moron in the Remain Range.

[nauseus]

7 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

what I say is not wrong,

point is that you and I view this differently

 

my comment was made in light of protecting the supremacy of the PM and the cabinet,

almost at any cost, because, in my view, that is the kernel in the UK democracy

if PM and cabinet and their role is not respected by ministers you have problems

what dd and others do in the video is undermining the role of the cabinet - we puke at that

 

fully agree, TM should have resigned ages ago, there are ways to force people to resign,

Tory did not use them, they rallied behind her to secure her future PM ship, same did parliament.

I call it love.

 

The kernel of UK democracy is the Constitution.

 

Governments come and go - they are temporary. Unfortunately this PM has been installed and has lasted far too long already. Respect has to be earned in any job - May hasn't earned <deleted> - the creation of the Department for Exiting the EU was just an expensive decoy and I puke at that.

[HauptmannUK]

I'm hoping to import a container load of these to sell to Brexit supporting ex-pats..

[melvinmelvin]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

Well the second three are already dead.

 

You seem to be moving closer to the Brexit cause which surprises me! Wasn't Quisling Norwegian?

yes, he was, born and bred and shot

 

me? how so? brexit/remain pretty much same same for me

 

brexit; interesting to see how UK manages on her own

remain; UK serves as a valuable handbrake against the wildest ideas in EU

 

[Chelseafan]

On 2/7/2019 at 8:20 AM, bomber said:

havent made any figures up,i have stated a further drop of 15% or more would be required to have anychance of  making an impact,that may happen it may not i was using the figure that the pound dropped after the vote as an example,as that drop did FA for exports,it could drop 40% and have no impact who knows,.

Our exports went up in 2017 (year after the referendum)

granted exports were on a downwards trend from a peak in 2013

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/472364/united-kingdom-uk-export-value/

 

 

[talahtnut]

2 hours ago, HauptmannUK said:

I'm hoping to import a container load of these to sell to Brexit supporting ex-pats..

Those glasses dont work, they were a con.

Instead. consider the 'talahtnut Mk 1 SGM'. [Super

Government Machine] to be installed in parliament

square:

Annually, every member of government is strapped to

a conveyor belt, which enters a polygraph, if a lie is

detected, the belt continues to stage 2, a guillotine.

Orders flooding in worldwide.