Why is the MAGA movement so susceptible to crazy conspiracy theories?

[My Thai Life]

Just now, bristolboy said:

I don't know what your point is about the GPB vs. the Baht is. But the fact is that the graph clearly shows a sharp and up to now lasting decline in the GBP at the time of Brexit.

My original point was simple and still stands, the largest depreciation of sterling against the baht was a long time before Brexit.

 

If you take a 10 year average of around 49 baht, sterling is down 10-15% on Brexit. This, as I said on a different thread, is within standard trading range.

 

The cause of this decline is to a large extent the lack of certainty around Brexit rather than Brexit itself.

 

Once we get back to a semblance of "certainty" there will be a market correction.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

I'd say it's the uncertainty around Brexit that's driving the f-x rates, rather than Brexit itself.

 

And a huge amount of that uncertainty has been driven by remainers seeking to subvert the referendum result, including May. Carney is another prominent remainer whose politically motivated and carefully timed pronouncements on behalf of the BoE have not exactly helped f-x rates. The CBI have a certain amount of culpability too.

 

Had we gone for the free trade approach offered by Tusk and Barnier, and initially favoured by May circa her Lancaster House speech, there would have been much less uncertainty, and therefore much greater f-x stability.

 

You've been around long enough to know that the major depreciation of sterling against the baht occurred well before Brexit, and that there will be a correction once we get some semblance of certainty - as far as there ever is certainty in politics.

Nicely put.

 

Uncertainty is certainly a key factor.

 

However, I think if we leave with no deal, you can expect around 37 TBT but if Brexit is stopped you will have 45 to 50.

 

BTW, parliament did not agree to automatically implement the referendum result. Cameron, with a large CON majority did commit his government. However, May lost his majority.

 

As for remain supporters, we do include within our ranks a majority of the finest minds and naturally most MPs. Does that not give you pause?

 

Parliament should go with the Father of the house and withdraw article 50. There is no rush; better get an optimal solution.

 

This is the most important issue since WW2. It is not a CON goth theme party.

[evadgib]

 

[melvinmelvin]

later this week,

if TMs "please change the deal" efforts do not result in any serious substance

 

what will be her next move?

no deal is better than a bad deal (she seems to think that the deal will not fly)

or

my deal or no Brexit?

 

if either Labour or Tory internal launch a non confidence activity - it will be a game changer - new

options on the table

 

am I right in thinking the following:

seems to me that Labour is playing a tricky game re non conf

if Labour launches a non conf activity first Labour will to a certain extent be controlling the game

and may end up with the PM (or indeed - may not)

however,  if Tory internal launches its non conf they control the game and pick the PM and

Labour is played off the field

 

[melvinmelvin]

20 minutes ago, evadgib said:

 

 

at least, he has learned to think positive, Mr Farage

 

[melvinmelvin]

20 minutes ago, evadgib said:

 

 

at least, he has learned to think positive, Mr Farage

 

[melvinmelvin]

20 minutes ago, evadgib said:

 

 

at least, he has learned to think positive, Mr Farage

 

[mommysboy]

11 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The 27 nations are are all of a reasonable level for the most part (or at least the bulk of them).  The European Union is a union of states, and the free movement of labour is one of those freedoms.  I would have no problem with Canada joining the EU (though the charter would prevent that since Canada is not in Europe and to be in the EU you must).  The UK is not curtailed from trading relationships with the world as such -- it has just been transferred to the EU as a whole to negotiate trade with foreign countries.  The EU as a group has much more clout than one individual nation.  Canada use to have a 'porous' border with the US.  In fact you could just walk across the border at my great-grandparents farm and do shopping or something and walk back across the farm land to home... it was not taken that seriously.  Border towns have/had services (for smaller communities) shared across the border - busing of students; fire fighters; other emergency responders... which have to a certain extent been disrupted by border stupidity.  Last I checked more than half the population of Toronto is foreign born... and to be quite honest it is a much more interesting city than when I was young...  at that time Toronto was pretty boring and I was more interested in moving to Montreal when I graduated...

 

You haven't really answered the question.  It's a poor deal really.

[My Thai Life]

 

56 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Nicely put.

 

Uncertainty is certainly a key factor.

 

However, I think if we leave with no deal, you can expect around 37 TBT but if Brexit is stopped you will have 45 to 50.

 

BTW, parliament did not agree to automatically implement the referendum result. Cameron, with a large CON majority did commit his government. However, May lost his majority.

 

As for remain supporters, we do include within our ranks a majority of the finest minds and naturally most MPs. Does that not give you pause?

 

Parliament should go with the Father of the house and withdraw article 50. There is no rush; better get an optimal solution.

 

This is the most important issue since WW2. It is not a CON goth theme party.

Re your view on future f-x rates. No-one can know these, so there's little point in you and I getting too detailed in speculating about them. However, I would say that the WTO option as a first step to more comprehensive free trade agreements, led by a Brexiter should May get replaced, would bring some certainty, at least about where the uncertainty is . At the moment we're even uncertain about which areas we should be uncertain about.

 

Re your point about not honouring the referendum result. You've made this point several times in different ways. But I can't agree. The referendum was according to election manifesto. Upholding the referendum result was pledged by election manifestos of both parties. The PM guaranteed that the result would be honoured. I am aware of what I have previously mischievously called the Constitution 101 arguments. I just don't agree with them. 

 

Leave won the election in large part because of the growing dissatisfaction with the "liberal elite". Now we have the very same liberal elite attempting to subvert the referendum result. Surely even the most hardened remainer can see this strategy is doomed to failure. Not to mention the self-evident fact that this "liberal elite" are proving themselve to be extremely illiberal.

 

The fact that most MPs support remain does not give me pause at all. They want an easy life with more political opportunties, which is what the EU gives them.

 

As for the idea that the best minds are on the remain side. Well I haven't actually looked into that in detail. But I think most would agree, even remainers, that May, Blair, Mandelson and Campbell to name but four prominent remainers have set the highest standards for dishonesty. Also on this forum you can see that remainers are by far the most abusive. 

 

My preference would be for a reformed EU. But two things to say about this: (1) it's not going to happen (2) my preference is actually not important. The people's vote took place a couple of years ago and the people voted to leave; and I believe democracy requires people to accept that sometimes you lose, and to respect different opinions.

 

You characterise Brexit to date as a Tory Goth party. I think the chaos has been less about the Tories, and more about remainers of both parties trying to block, subvert and obfuscate.

Edited December 12, 2018 by My Thai Life

[bristolboy]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Exactly.

 

Now plot the Euro against the baht over the same period.

What I don't understand is why you insist on using a 10 year average? How does this help to understand the effect of the Brexit vote on the pound. The pound fell much more sharply in value post brexit vote than did the Euro. This is indisputable. 

Of what value is doing a 10 year average? Why not do a 30 year average? They both will shed absolutely no light on the question of how the pound fared post brexit compared to other major currencies. And the fact is it fared a lot worse. Whether that currency is thai baht or the US dollar.

 

 

[bkkcanuck8]

28 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

You haven't really answered the question.  It's a poor deal really.

 

The deal only deal that the UK should be expecting is a strictly trade oriented deal such as CETA.  Judging from people on here that were pro-brexit, there are quite a large number that think they can leave the EU and have all the benefits of the EU because the UK is gods gift to the world.   The deal is a result of negotiations where the UK negotiation team (May being head) obviously believes that a CETA or hard-brexit is highly detrimental to the UK.  The deal tries to minimize that, and hide the reality of the situation and that combination means that any deal is going to be a schmozzle.  The UK team spent almost 18 months not really putting a realistic offer on the table.  The deal on the table is the UK's responsibility.  The people on the pro-brexit side of the referendum did not offer a realistic blueprint of what brexit was to be -- then ran away when they won (only to be seen as being critical of anything - something really easy to do).   So yes, "the deal" is poor... but that is sort of what to expect from the lack of responsibility that exists from the UK's side.

[dick dasterdly]

3 hours ago, bristolboy said:

I don't know what your point is about the GPB vs. the Baht is. But the fact is that the graph clearly shows a sharp and up to now lasting decline in the GBP at the time of Brexit.

Exchange rates Thai bht/sterling have been up and down for a long time.

 

The immediate reaction to the referendum result was to put the sterling exchange rate close to the lowest rate previously (during my time here in Thailand - I retired here in 2006).

 

Since then it's declined even further whenever something has happened that jeapordised a leave in name only result!  May declaring that the latest MP's vote has been postponed is the most recent example....

 

A bit odd as immediately after the referendum leave result should surely have been the low?  On the basis that at that time, it was possible that the uk might genuinely leave the eu?

 

The money markets are playing their own 'money' games IMO. ☹️

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

Nicely put.

 

Uncertainty is certainly a key factor.

 

However, I think if we leave with no deal, you can expect around 37 TBT but if Brexit is stopped you will have 45 to 50.

 

BTW, parliament did not agree to automatically implement the referendum result. Cameron, with a large CON majority did commit his government. However, May lost his majority.

 

As for remain supporters, we do include within our ranks a majority of the finest minds and naturally most MPs. Does that not give you pause?

 

Parliament should go with the Father of the house and withdraw article 50. There is no rush; better get an optimal solution.

 

This is the most important issue since WW2. It is not a CON goth theme party.

"However, I think if we leave with no deal, you can expect around 37 TBT but if Brexit is stopped you will have 45 to 50."

 

We can all predict to our heart's content - but I agree with the gist of this comment.

 

Personally, I think sterling may fall as low as 35 bht in the event of no deal.  On the other hand, even if the uk govt. manages to find a way to remain, I doubt it will climb any higher than 45 or 46 for a while.

 

"As for remain supporters, we do include within our ranks a majority of the finest minds and naturally most MPs. Does that not give you pause?"

 

????

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

later this week,

if TMs "please change the deal" efforts do not result in any serious substance

 

what will be her next move?

no deal is better than a bad deal (she seems to think that the deal will not fly)

or

my deal or no Brexit?

 

if either Labour or Tory internal launch a non confidence activity - it will be a game changer - new

options on the table

 

am I right in thinking the following:

seems to me that Labour is playing a tricky game re non conf

if Labour launches a non conf activity first Labour will to a certain extent be controlling the game

and may end up with the PM (or indeed - may not)

however,  if Tory internal launches its non conf they control the game and pick the PM and

Labour is played off the field

 

"what will be her next move?

no deal is better than a bad deal (she seems to think that the deal will not fly)

or

my deal or no Brexit?"

 

You're missing the point that whilst initially she stated that "no deal was better than a bad deal", she's since changed her tune to it's either 'my deal' (the worst deal imaginable....) - or no brexit' ????!

 

Laughing aside, I've no idea as to where May will go from here bearing in mind the (unreliable) polls seem to indicate that there is little change amongst the electorate and the eu has said that it has no intention of re-negotiating.  Which hopefully puts aside the most likely 'escape route' - a slightly amended 'deal' that changes nothing.

[dick dasterdly]

27 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Exchange rates Thai bht/sterling have been up and down for a long time.

 

The immediate reaction to the referendum result was to put the sterling exchange rate close to the lowest rate previously (during my time here in Thailand - I retired here in 2006).

 

Since then it's declined even further whenever something has happened that jeapordised a leave in name only result!  May declaring that the latest MP's vote has been postponed is the most recent example....

 

A bit odd as immediately after the referendum leave result should surely have been the low?  On the basis that at that time, it was possible that the uk might genuinely leave the eu?

 

The money markets are playing their own 'money' games IMO. ☹️

 

"A bit odd as immediately after the referendum leave result should surely have been the low?  On the basis that at that time, it was possible that the uk might genuinely leave the eu?

 

The money markets are playing their own 'money' games IMO. ☹️"

 

And the rest, are just following the herd.... i.e  not very bright....

[My Thai Life]

35 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"However, I think if we leave with no deal, you can expect around 37 TBT but if Brexit is stopped you will have 45 to 50."

 

We can all predict to our heart's content - but I agree with the gist of this comment.

This article in yesterday's Telegraph tracks sterling's up and downs since the Referendum. 

 

"In January last year she delivered a speech at Lancaster House outlining her Brexit objectives, which managed to subdue investor concern about an uncontrolled departure from the EU.

Sterling enjoyed its biggest daily gain since October 2008, closing 2.61pc higher against the dollar at $1.2383 and gaining around 0.8pc to 87.36 pence per euro."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/11/value-pound-has-affected-theresa-may/

 

Markets respond very badly to uncertainty as we all know. And a WTO exit would provide less uncertainty than at present, so I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic about the f-x rate myself. 

 

Re the WTO option. There are many scenarios for this option, depending entirely on the trade policies that the government choses to put in place; without knowing these policies it's really not possible even to guess the FX rates imvho.

 

One of the first posts I saw on this specific topic (post Brexit WTO trade policy) on this forum was an article from The Independent claiming food would go up 20% in a WTO exit. The article was so badly written that it was impossible to say why the journalist came to this conclusion. He seemed to be working on the assumption that the UK would have to impose on its imports from the EU the  3rd country import tariffs that the EU imposes on imports from 3rd countries (average around 20%). Complete nonsense of course.

 

In the WTO option (1) we would no longer be paying subsidies to EU farming (2) we could set import tariffs to zero if we chose to. Food would be cheaper. The economy would evolve in a different way. FX rates would be impacted accordingly. 

 

However, I agree in the short term it's extremely likely that Brexit of any type will have a negative impact on F-X rates. But Brexit is a long-term project, it surely cannot be judged on short-term FX rates

 

Also, as any British exporter here knows, a "weak" pound is good for exports.

 

Sad to say though, none of this helps expats who are exposed to the sterling-Baht rate.

 

(I'm too tired to check all the typos, so apologies in advance.)

Edited December 12, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

 

Re your view on future f-x rates. No-one can know these, so there's little point in you and I getting too detailed in speculating about them. However, I would say that the WTO option as a first step to more comprehensive free trade agreements, led by a Brexiter should May get replaced, would bring some certainty, at least about where the uncertainty is . At the moment we're even uncertain about which areas we should be uncertain about.

 

Re your point about not honouring the referendum result. You've made this point several times in different ways. But I can't agree. The referendum was according to election manifesto. Upholding the referendum result was pledged by election manifestos of both parties. The PM guaranteed that the result would be honoured. I am aware of what I have previously mischievously called the Constitution 101 arguments. I just don't agree with them. 

 

Leave won the election in large part because of the growing dissatisfaction with the "liberal elite". Now we have the very same liberal elite attempting to subvert the referendum result. Surely even the most hardened remainer can see this strategy is doomed to failure. Not to mention the self-evident fact that this "liberal elite" are proving themselve to be extremely illiberal.

 

The fact that most MPs support remain does not give me pause at all. They want an easy life with more political opportunties, which is what the EU gives them.

 

As for the idea that the best minds are on the remain side. Well I haven't actually looked into that in detail. But I think most would agree, even remainers, that May, Blair, Mandelson and Campbell to name but four prominent remainers have set the highest standards for dishonesty. Also on this forum you can see that remainers are by far the most abusive. 

 

My preference would be for a reformed EU. But two things to say about this: (1) it's not going to happen (2) my preference is actually not important. The people's vote took place a couple of years ago and the people voted to leave; and I believe democracy requires people to accept that sometimes you lose, and to respect different opinions.

 

You characterise Brexit to date as a Tory Goth party. I think the chaos has been less about the Tories, and more about remainers of both parties trying to block, subvert and obfuscate.

Intelligent post. Thanks!

 

I appreciate your point of view.

 

My goth party related to CON public disintegration

 

personally, I would push the EU for more concessions. Free movement limit according to population density perhaps 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

 

Re your view on future f-x rates. No-one can know these, so there's little point in you and I getting too detailed in speculating about them. However, I would say that the WTO option as a first step to more comprehensive free trade agreements, led by a Brexiter should May get replaced, would bring some certainty, at least about where the uncertainty is . At the moment we're even uncertain about which areas we should be uncertain about.

 

Re your point about not honouring the referendum result. You've made this point several times in different ways. But I can't agree. The referendum was according to election manifesto. Upholding the referendum result was pledged by election manifestos of both parties. The PM guaranteed that the result would be honoured. I am aware of what I have previously mischievously called the Constitution 101 arguments. I just don't agree with them. 

 

Leave won the election in large part because of the growing dissatisfaction with the "liberal elite". Now we have the very same liberal elite attempting to subvert the referendum result. Surely even the most hardened remainer can see this strategy is doomed to failure. Not to mention the self-evident fact that this "liberal elite" are proving themselve to be extremely illiberal.

 

The fact that most MPs support remain does not give me pause at all. They want an easy life with more political opportunties, which is what the EU gives them.

 

As for the idea that the best minds are on the remain side. Well I haven't actually looked into that in detail. But I think most would agree, even remainers, that May, Blair, Mandelson and Campbell to name but four prominent remainers have set the highest standards for dishonesty. Also on this forum you can see that remainers are by far the most abusive. 

 

My preference would be for a reformed EU. But two things to say about this: (1) it's not going to happen (2) my preference is actually not important. The people's vote took place a couple of years ago and the people voted to leave; and I believe democracy requires people to accept that sometimes you lose, and to respect different opinions.

 

You characterise Brexit to date as a Tory Goth party. I think the chaos has been less about the Tories, and more about remainers of both parties trying to block, subvert and obfuscate.

Intelligent post. Thanks!

 

I appreciate your point of view.

 

My goth party related to CON public disintegration

 

personally, I would push the EU for more concessions. Free movement limit according to population density perhaps 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

 

Re your view on future f-x rates. No-one can know these, so there's little point in you and I getting too detailed in speculating about them. However, I would say that the WTO option as a first step to more comprehensive free trade agreements, led by a Brexiter should May get replaced, would bring some certainty, at least about where the uncertainty is . At the moment we're even uncertain about which areas we should be uncertain about.

 

Re your point about not honouring the referendum result. You've made this point several times in different ways. But I can't agree. The referendum was according to election manifesto. Upholding the referendum result was pledged by election manifestos of both parties. The PM guaranteed that the result would be honoured. I am aware of what I have previously mischievously called the Constitution 101 arguments. I just don't agree with them. 

 

Leave won the election in large part because of the growing dissatisfaction with the "liberal elite". Now we have the very same liberal elite attempting to subvert the referendum result. Surely even the most hardened remainer can see this strategy is doomed to failure. Not to mention the self-evident fact that this "liberal elite" are proving themselve to be extremely illiberal.

 

The fact that most MPs support remain does not give me pause at all. They want an easy life with more political opportunties, which is what the EU gives them.

 

As for the idea that the best minds are on the remain side. Well I haven't actually looked into that in detail. But I think most would agree, even remainers, that May, Blair, Mandelson and Campbell to name but four prominent remainers have set the highest standards for dishonesty. Also on this forum you can see that remainers are by far the most abusive. 

 

My preference would be for a reformed EU. But two things to say about this: (1) it's not going to happen (2) my preference is actually not important. The people's vote took place a couple of years ago and the people voted to leave; and I believe democracy requires people to accept that sometimes you lose, and to respect different opinions.

 

You characterise Brexit to date as a Tory Goth party. I think the chaos has been less about the Tories, and more about remainers of both parties trying to block, subvert and obfuscate.

Intelligent post. Thanks!

 

I appreciate your point of view.

 

My goth party related to CON public disintegration

 

personally, I would push the EU for more concessions. Free movement limit according to population density perhaps 

[dick dasterdly]

19 hours ago, Grouse said:

Intelligent post. Thanks!

 

I appreciate your point of view.

 

My goth party related to CON public disintegration

 

personally, I would push the EU for more concessions. Free movement limit according to population density perhaps 

"personally, I would push the EU for more concessions. Free movement limit according to population density perhaps"

 

I'd like to add 'plus unemployment rates in the country' - but we all know that unemployment rates (certainly in the uk) are 'massaged' to make them look better.....

[tebee]

It's the old codgers who want brexit 

 

 

[malagateddy]

What have you got against " old codgers "..you will be one yourself soon.
Would you rather limit the voting age to be only young non working life people who are oh so easily fooled and manipulated by professional liars like Blair..Clegg etc etc

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[vogie]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

It's the old codgers who want brexit 

 

 

When the young think that opening a tin of beans is akin to climbing Mount Everest, I have to ask myself can (no pun intended) they be trusted to make the correct decision on the future of our country.

But well done on your ageist remark.

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by vogie

[welovesundaysatspace]

36 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

What have you got against " old codgers "..you will be one yourself soon.
Would you rather limit the voting age to be only young non working life people who are oh so easily fooled and manipulated by professional liars like Blair..Clegg etc etc

Wait, do you mean we could tell them the UK pays 350m a week to the EU and having the cake and eat it would be the easiest deal in history, and those kiddos would actually believe that nonsense?