Post-poll Prayut govt will lack legitimacy, says academic

[webfact]

Post-poll Prayut govt will lack legitimacy, says academic

By THE NATION

 

File photo

 

FORMER student activist and renowned scholar Thirayuth Boonmee has predicted that though junta leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha will be able to form the next government, it will lack legitimacy and this will only lead to instability.

 

The lack of legitimacy will be due to the complex network between the military, public servants, the conservatives and big corporates, which only protect their own interests, and the fact that the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has destroyed the credibility of independent agencies, Thirayuth said yesterday. He was speaking at the 45th anniversary of the 1973 uprising that he led.

 

The rampant lack of transparency and populist policies are no different than those during Thaksin Shinawatra’s time, when the government used all kinds of ploys to gain an advantage over other parties, Thirayuth pointed out.

 

Similarly, he said, the junta government was now trying to buy votes using populist schemes, such as handing out cash as “New Year” gifts to low-income earners.

 

These offerings may help the junta win the election, but many other problems will ensue due to poor legitimacy, the activist predicted.

 

“They need to change their mindset, from considering themselves as the holders of sovereign power to accepting differences,” he said.

 

“It is only this way that they can run the country.”

 

Thirayuth’s comments come amid controversy surrounding the NCPO’s and Prayut’s role before, during and after the elections.

 

Although the organic law on MP election will go into effect today and the ban on political activities will be relaxed subsequently, critics and politicians are concerned that the regime will interfere with the elections and retain its power.

 

After Prayut proposed that party symbols and names be removed from the ballot paper, politicians yesterday called on the Election Commission (EC) to maintain its independence and make the elections free and fair.

 

Thai Raksa Chart leader Preechapol Pongpanit said yesterday that he wanted all the independent agencies to be transparent and straightforward about the election to ensure that an elected government can serve the public with no questions asked.

 

He also advised the EC to disregard any opinions from irrelevant parties and insisted that ballot papers include party symbols and names. Otherwise, he said, it will not be in line with the Constitution, which requires that ballot papers be designed so the voter can not only choose the constituency candidate but also the party.

 

Suwat Liptapanlop, a key member of Chart Pattana Party, said yesterday that the EC should make a clear decision on the matter and ensure that the elections are free and fair and that voters turn up to exercise their right.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30360137

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-12-11

[Samui Bodoh]

"...Post-poll Prayut govt will lack legitimacy, says academic..."

 

'I fully agree' says TVF poster.

 

There are many aspects to the coming illegitimacy, but the gravest, most long-lasting is/will be the destruction of the credibility of Thailand's institutions. Think about it; the Junta/Military/Prayut invested sooooo much effort is tearing down all the various public institutions that there aren't really any left which are trusted. Legislators? Nope. The NACC? Don't be ridiculous. The Public Auditing Bureau (or what ever it is called)? Nope. The Police? Good one! The various Ministries? Can anyone say rampant corruption in the Education system? University boards? Nope. Etc Etc Etc.

 

When things go wrong, as they ALWAYS do for a government, where are people going to turn? Anyone? Anyone? Seriously, anyone?

 

It will take a few more years to truly see the terrible damage wrought by Prayut and his minions; poor, beloved Thailand is in for a much more severe shock to its system

 

Sad, sad times in the Kingdom...

 

[Justgrazing]

23 minutes ago, webfact said:

Post-poll Prayut govt will lack legitimacy, says academic

Just like Pre-poll then .. 

[webfact]

Junta uses same tricks employed by Thaksin to ensure stay in power: Thirayuth Boonmee

 

 

The junta and the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha are following in the footstep of the previous Thaksin government in stifling independent organizations and in taking advantage of rival political parties to make sure that they will stay on in power after the forthcoming election, said well-known political analyst Thirayuth Boonmee.

 

He said he was sure that Prime Minister Prayut would become prime minister for the second term because this has been the junta’s ambition from the very beginning since they ditched the previous constitution draft crafted by Dr Bovornsak Uwanno, a constitution expert, and then resorted to the service of Meechai Ruchupan, the incumbent chairman of the Constitution Drafting Committee to draft the current Constitution. Prayut capped the concerted efforts to retain power with the creation of the pro-regime Palang Pracharat party.

 

Four members of his cabinet are core members of the Palang Pracharat party.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/junta-uses-same-tricks-employed-by-thaksin-to-ensure-stay-in-power-thirayuth-boonmee/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-12-11

[Cadbury]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The lack of legitimacy will be due to the complex network between the military, public servants, the conservatives and big corporates, which only protect their own interests.....

Thirayuth Boonmee needs to be congratulated for coming out and calling it as it really is. Protecting their own interests and their wealth is what their idea of government is all about. 

While they let the peasants eat cake and fight at the ATMs for the crumbs they throw to them.

Skulduggery has been the order of the day by the junta in the way they have orchestrated the election. Disgusting!

 

 

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

Thirayuth Boonmee needs to be congratulated for coming out and calling it as it really is. Protecting their own interests and their wealth is what their idea of government is all about. 

While they let the peasants eat cake and fight at the ATMs for the crumbs they throw to them.

Skulduggery has been the order of the day by the junta in the way they have orchestrated the election. Disgusting!

 

 

.....and has existed forever, blindingly. 

[yellowboat]

We will not be seeing any Thaksin haters or junta lovers on this forum for  a very long time.   Thailand will continue to slide downwards which is no surprise to anyone.  Prayut is far too cowardly and ignorant to lead the country to any prosperity.   Thai exports will remain strong and the people will remain weak, being passed up by Vietnam . 

[zzaa09]

27 minutes ago, yellowboat said:

We will not be seeing any Thaksin haters or junta lovers on this forum for  a very long time.   Thailand will continue to slide downwards which is no surprise to anyone.  Prayut is far too cowardly and ignorant to lead the country to any prosperity.   Thai exports will remain strong and the people will remain weak, being passed up by Vietnam . 

....or even Laos.

[Enoon]

 

Give the man a coconut.

 

The significant difference is that this time around there has been a big change.

 

The questions now are how severe the "instability" becomes and how it will be responded to in the New Era.

 

The future depends on that, not the results of "just another" election.

 

 

[zzaa09]

I need another drink, this morning, after absorbing all this stirring commentary throughout.....

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

the fact that the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has destroyed the credibility of independent agencies

To be fair the NCPO only sustained previous coups' destruction of independent agency credibility.

This also includes the Constitutional Court that has been according to Thai academics politicalized unsurprisingly towards pro-military undemocratic policies and practices.

[monkfish]

Nope sorry I disagree they are much worse than Thaksin's government.
 

[gk10002000]

It will be as stable as every other government of the last 100 years,... stable and legitimate until the next coup

[colinneil]

Thaksin is corrupt , but this crowd even more so.

The antics of this lot make what Thaksin got up to pale into insignificance.

[ReMarKable]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Junta uses same tricks employed by Thaksin to ensure stay in power: Thirayuth Boonmee

 

 

The junta and the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha are following in the footstep of the previous Thaksin government in stifling independent organizations and in taking advantage of rival political parties to make sure that they will stay on in power after the forthcoming election, said well-known political analyst Thirayuth Boonmee.

 

He said he was sure that Prime Minister Prayut would become prime minister for the second term because this has been the junta’s ambition from the very beginning since they ditched the previous constitution draft crafted by Dr Bovornsak Uwanno, a constitution expert, and then resorted to the service of Meechai Ruchupan, the incumbent chairman of the Constitution Drafting Committee to draft the current Constitution. Prayut capped the concerted efforts to retain power with the creation of the pro-regime Palang Pracharat party.

 

Four members of his cabinet are core members of the Palang Pracharat party.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/junta-uses-same-tricks-employed-by-thaksin-to-ensure-stay-in-power-thirayuth-boonmee/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-12-11

Thai PBS will shortly have funding problems or someone will be suspended. etc.  No one in power likes the truth; unless they actually help a society.

[connda]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The lack of legitimacy will be due to the complex network between the military, public servants, the conservatives and big corporates, which only protect their own interests, and the fact that the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has destroyed the credibility of independent agencies, Thirayuth said yesterday. He was speaking at the 45th anniversary of the 1973 uprising that he led.

If that was true then things would be falling apart now.  But they are not.  Public servants, conservatives, and big corporations simply adapt to the government model.  Authoritarian regimes rule with an iron fist, which can make for a stable, albeit unhappy, country.  Business still thrives.  Countries like the US don't intervene.  So unfortunately, even a government without 'credibility' can still rule the roost effectively if the stakeholders accept the status quo.  And most stakeholders and a significant part of the population will go along willingly.  So I don't see a post-election 'junta' led party leading the nation to ruin.  You'll just have an autocratic government that a lot of people won't like but won't have much power to do anything about.

[Samui Bodoh]

13 minutes ago, connda said:

If that was true then things would be falling apart now.  But they are not.  Public servants, conservatives, and big corporations simply adapt to the government model.  Authoritarian regimes rule with an iron fist, which can make for a stable, albeit unhappy, country.  Business still thrives.  Countries like the US don't intervene.  So unfortunately, even a government without 'credibility' can still rule the roost effectively if the stakeholders accept the status quo.  And most stakeholders and a significant part of the population will go along willingly.  So I don't see a post-election 'junta' led party leading the nation to ruin.  You'll just have an autocratic government that a lot of people won't like but won't have much power to do anything about.

Great post, @connda

 

That said, let me disagree a bit.

 

I think that you are correct in your assessment of the reaction of Business, the Bureaucracy, and Conservatives. However, I think that you aren't quite correct regarding the general public.

 

There is an amorphous quality in every country; you can call it the 'spirit', the 'ethos', 'confidence' or whatever seems to capture the idea. This concept, this feeling, is (in my view) a central element in a country's success or failure. And, Prayut/the Junta can't harness and expand on it; they/he does not have the ability to inspire.

 

I see by your post count that you have been in country for a while... Remember back in the early Thaksin days? Or, the early days of Yingluck? I don't want to make this a 'Red' thing as I don't think it was, but there was a certain energy in the air, on the streets, in the media and all over the place; there was an idea that Thailand had the confidence to take on the world (again, not a 'Red' thing). I certainly remember it, and all that I have talked with do as well, be they 'Red', 'Yellow', or indifferent.

 

It is this element, or better the lack of it, that I think will cause great damage to Thailand should Junta/Prayut remain in the PM's chair after the election. It'll show up in small areas, it may not be always clear, but it is the difference between the general public having the confidence to go that extra mile, to start a business, to make a statement of confidence and buy that refrigerator or house, to try something new, to dare to dream, to build the nation. The effects, especially in the beginning, won't be terribly noticeable, but they accumulate. If one percent of the general public starts to feel the ennui, then that will slowly seep into the economy, into general life and have a multiplier effect. And that will begin the process of slowing Thailand down while her neighbours and competitors strive forward and overtake it. This is the true danger of the Junta/Prayut; the slow, monotonous, ever-so-slight decline. And, once a country is on that path, there is little chance that it gets off of it without a pretty serious change at the top; see Burma next door.

 

This, in my eyes, is the real danger of the Junta/Prayut. Like a frog put into merely warm water with the heat slowly turned on underneath, Thailand will slowly, gradually, almost unnoticed begin the decline.

 

i'd really hate to see Thailand go through this...

 

[sammieuk1]

Legitimacy is barrel shaped and amazingly the bigger the calibre the more legit it becomes ???? 

[Eric Loh]

49 minutes ago, connda said:

If that was true then things would be falling apart now.  But they are not.  Public servants, conservatives, and big corporations simply adapt to the government model.  Authoritarian regimes rule with an iron fist, which can make for a stable, albeit unhappy, country.  Business still thrives.  Countries like the US don't intervene.  So unfortunately, even a government without 'credibility' can still rule the roost effectively if the stakeholders accept the status quo.  And most stakeholders and a significant part of the population will go along willingly.  So I don't see a post-election 'junta' led party leading the nation to ruin.  You'll just have an autocratic government that a lot of people won't like but won't have much power to do anything about.

Authoritarian is defined as autocratic, dictatorial, despotic, tyrannical, draconian, oppressive, repressive or simply undemocratic or in the case of this junta, non elected that seized an elected government by force. 

 

Tell me what so acceptable are all that to you. Country of inequality that became worst during the junta tenure. Human right abuses increase, extra judiciary detention, misuse of laws to punish people who have opinions, misuse of article 44 and frightened off foreign investors and hindered the economic progress and missed opportunities. 

 

 

[HalfLight]

33 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Authoritarian is defined as autocratic, dictatorial, despotic, tyrannical, draconian, oppressive, repressive or simply undemocratic or in the case of this junta, non elected that seized an elected government by force. 

 

Tell me what so acceptable are all that to you. Country of inequality that became worst during the junta tenure. Human right abuses increase, extra judiciary detention, misuse of laws to punish people who have opinions, misuse of article 44 and frightened off foreign investors and hindered the economic progress and missed opportunities. 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, one thing is for certain. If the junta do manage to rort the polls (and I really do hope, for the sake of Thailand that they don't), then the international community will do bugger all about it. It'll just be business as usual.

 

 

[chainarong]

History will repeat and once again the likes of Academic Thirayuth will be proved correct and the likes of Prayut will go down in history as another lot of has bean's, Junta's have no part in modern history, but then again neither is there a place for a weak Thai Democracy

[connda]

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I think that you are correct in your assessment of the reaction of Business, the Bureaucracy, and Conservatives. However, I think that you aren't quite correct regarding the general public.

There's a split in the country.  For example, my wife is pro-junta because of the 'apparent' stability.  My step kids are not for all the reasons outlined in the Prathet Guu Mee video.  Then most of my neighbors in my village are essentially red shirts who no longer wear red, but their underlying dissatisfaction is still simmering under the surface.  Perhaps as the elections nears, the public will start to actually voice their feelings.  I guess we'll see.  Personally I don't like 'democracy at the end of a gun' and the current regime doesn't strike me as being any more corruption free or ethical than any of their predecessors - perhaps worse.  But honestly, I've no dog in this fight - just sitting on the sidelines and watching with amusement. 

[connda]

5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Authoritarian is defined as autocratic, dictatorial, despotic, tyrannical, draconian, oppressive, repressive or simply undemocratic or in the case of this junta, non elected that seized an elected government by force. 

 

Tell me what so acceptable are all that to you. Country of inequality that became worst during the junta tenure. Human right abuses increase, extra judiciary detention, misuse of laws to punish people who have opinions, misuse of article 44 and frightened off foreign investors and hindered the economic progress and missed opportunities. 

 

 

 

You're preaching to the choir my friend. 

[zzaa09]

All the theories and punditry aside, we might explore Thai contemporary history as to how the other periods of military rule fell...[some long, some brief] What brought on their demise and what form of society followed.

 

A deeper look into historic similarities might reveal truths regarding our current affairs. 

[A hint: the patronage/oligarchical cycles and lineage continue on]

 

Nothing will change until a solidified system cleansing is enacted.

We can pontificate, theorize, and reason as to this and that as such applies to current affairs until we're blue in the face - our punditry and rhetorical cycles are almost as moot as the broad subject matter in which we're so falsely anxious and concerned towards.  

 

The paradigm might be shifting or perhaps not. 

Yet, it sure isn't any assistance from analysis that doesn't heed to history - witnessing that it repeats itself over and again.

As all the factors are in place - the theatre has changed ever so slightly, yet the players remain homogenous to the setting. 

 

I might add, that promoting firm and comparative Western ideals into traditional Asia is simply fool's gold. 

Though, such thought should be expected from the most usual crowd - it's all you know.

 

 

[chama]

I hope more than people than those here, and other ex-pats, are hearing this guy. He has made several good points and may open some Thai eyes.