South Warned of First Tropical Storm Since 1962 Disaster

[NCC1701A]

"Forecasters at the UN’s Global Disaster Alerting and Coordinating System said the tropical depression already became a tropical storm this morning and winds will peak at 83kph on Thursday."

 

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2019/01/01/south-warned-of-first-tropical-storm-since-1962-disaster/

 

It is big:

 

https://www.windy.com/?10.034,102.678,6

[NCC1701A]

and here:

 

http://www.sattmet.tmd.go.th/satmet/mergesat.html

 

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/nhem/wpac/rb.html

 

 

[Brunolem]

Isn't it supposed to be the cool and dry season in this part of the world?

[Stocky]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Isn't it supposed to be the cool and dry season in this part of the world?

Not Southern Thailand, NE Monsoon runs late September/ early October until late December/ early January.

 

 

[from the home of CC]

Lucky with the high wind shear impacting its development, this could of been real nasty. Still could turn out to be a big rain maker. JTWC and the Ventusky site differ at which point it crosses the peninsula.

[NCC1701A]

[Kron]

Was not Typhoon Gay in 1989 the last Tropical storm to hit the south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

 

 

 

[phuketsub]

6 minutes ago, Kron said:

Was not Typhoon Gay in 1989 the last Tropical storm to hit the south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

 

 

 

Exactly the point I was going to make. That thing hit just before I arrived here and I don't remember anything as bad hitting the South since. Fortunately Songkhla Lake is still relatively low for this time of the year. You can already see the swirling effect of the storm here.

 

The graphic shown in the original story, which shows a landfall near Pak Panang in NST, seems irresponsible to me.

[Stocky]

1 hour ago, Kron said:

Was not Typhoon Gay in 1989 the last Tropical storm to hit the south. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

Ah, but that was a Cat 1 Typhoon, no longer a Tropical Storm ????  whoever did the research for the article probably just Googled 'Gulf of Thailand Tropical Storm' and got 1962.

 

I see Tropical Depression 36 is now a named Tropical Storm Pabuk, this far out there's a fair degree of uncertainty as to where it will end up, the Tropical Storm Risk website gives probability plots, below is the 120hr tropical storm wind probabilities.

 

[4evermaat]

Great for the kitesurfers, until things get "too windy".   Looks like the eye of the storm will run through Chumphon.

 

Thoughts?

[from the home of CC]

Interaction with land and wind shear will keep the wind velocity down but low lying areas are looking at a big flood potential with some models predicting 3 - 5 inches a rain per 3 hr period. Probably pass south of here in Hua Hin, but still planning for power loss and restricted travel due to flooding of streets. 

[phuketsub]

I don't think there have been enough similar systems to allow for accurate forecasting based on modelling. I think those forecasting are just taking into account the rotation of the earth and the high pressure systems (see isobar charts) that could be pulling it north.

 

The worst-case scenario is that this thing veers north and hits near Bangkok, with a storm surge and flooding. If that happens it could also pick up a lot of energy in the shallow gulf and possibly even become a true typhoon. Fortunately this would not coincide with a full moon, but it could still be really bad.

 

 

 

 

[NCC1701A]

[phuketsub]

Thus far, nothing whatsoever on the ground to distinguish this system from a typical, rainy day in the monsoon season.

 

The center track seems to be continuing due west, not NNW as predicted. Good news for Songkhla and the other Gulf Coast provinces.

 

[NCC1701A]

WTPN31 PGTW 030300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/   

1. TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012 CORRECTED   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 6.0N 105.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 6.3N 104.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 7.2N 102.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 8.0N 100.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
     
      ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 8.7N 98.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 10.6N 95.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 13.0N 92.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 15.9N 90.8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
  
    ---

REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 6.1N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 
032100Z AND 040300Z.

[NCC1701A]

looks like max wind speed at land fall. 50 knots with 65 knot gusts.  One knot equals 1.852 KPH. So 50 knots per hour X 1.852 equals 92.6 KPH or 57.53 MPH.

[Stocky]

4 hours ago, phuketsub said:

Thus far, nothing whatsoever on the ground to distinguish this system from a typical, rainy day in the monsoon season.

 

The center track seems to be continuing due west, not NNW as predicted. Good news for Songkhla and the other Gulf Coast provinces.

 

Been raining in Hat Yai since midnight last night, just steady rain.

 

The change in the storm track is a little worrying, landfall has moved steadily south from Chumphon, to Surat Thani, to NST, now Songkhla.  I do hope that trend continues and it ends up at Kota Bharu - apologies to the residents of Kota Bharu but 'inshallah'.

[phuketsub]

17 minutes ago, Stocky said:

Been raining in Hat Yai since midnight last night, just steady rain.

 

The change in the storm track is a little worrying, landfall has moved steadily south from Chumphon, to Surat Thani, to NST, now Songkhla.  I do hope that trend continues and it ends up at Kota Bharu - apologies to the residents of Kota Bharu but 'inshallah'.

I am still confused as to why all the storm track projections have the system moving northwest as it reaches the coast. It's been consistently heading due west and as such should make landfall in Kota Baru soon, though many agencies are still predicting landfall in NST. Seems weird to me, but perhaps they know something I don't. Anyway, hopefully we won't get hit too hard here in Ranode...

 

[Stocky]

17 minutes ago, phuketsub said:

I am still confused as to why all the storm track projections have the system moving northwest as it reaches the coast. It's been consistently heading due west and as such should make landfall in Kota Baru soon, though many agencies are still predicting landfall in NST. Seems weird to me, but perhaps they know something I don't. Anyway, hopefully we won't get hit too hard here in Ranode...

 

The forecaster at the JTWC seem confident it will swing NW within the next 12hrs.

 

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp3618prog.txt

 

I do hope they're wrong, I've a flight out of Hat Yai tomorrow and it's looking increasingly like that's not going to happen.

[phuketsub]

2 hours ago, Stocky said:

The forecaster at the JTWC seem confident it will swing NW within the next 12hrs.

 

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp3618prog.txt

 

I do hope they're wrong, I've a flight out of Hat Yai tomorrow and it's looking increasingly like that's not going to happen.

I hope they're wrong too, but you can see the polar outflow channel he references pretty clearly on the Himawari radar...Anyway, best of luck with the flight out.

[Stocky]

interesting using the Ventusky website, you can toggle between  the various weather models. They give you three options, IKON the German model still sends the storm through Surat Thani, the GFS American NOAA model has it land at NST, whilst the GEM Canadian model thinks it will land further south just north of Songkhla, yours and my worst nightmare.

 

IKON or GFS should mean Hat Yai airport is fine, GEM would probably close it. Guess we'll see who's right tomorrow.

[Stocky]

The latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning website shows the storm did indeed take a right turn. So the Canadian model is likely to be wrong, but will the American or German models prove more accurate?

[phuketsub]

The eye is due East offshore of Ranode District here in Songkhla now now and the situation here is very windy, with very sustained winds around 50kph, but nothing like hurricane force. Still, these are the strongest sustained winds I have experienced in 30 years living in Thailand.

 

One papaya tree is down in the garden.

 

Most of the shops are closed and people are just hunkering down, waiting for it to pass. No major flooding and the rainfall is really nothing special for this time of year.

 

No power outages and Internet still working well. '

 

Public schools are all closed.

[Sheryl]

Now expected that the brunt of the storm will hit Nakhon Si Thammarat and earlier than originally expected, I've seen mention of 3-4 PM.

 

Already flooding in Pak Phanong district there.

[Sheryl]

Thai Rath Live predicting 5 meter waves to hit   - Nakhon Si thammarat/Songkhla area

[Sheryl]

20 electric poles downed on the road between Muang and Pak Phanong districts

[surfdog]

https://forecasts.surfer.com

 

Check out here, toggle to East Asia, switch graphic to wind. You can also toggle the time.

 

This model looks like the center of storm's first landfall will be Talaem Phuk (the long peninsula jutting out from NST)

 

The time model is Tokyo, 2 hours ahead. Which puts first landfall sometime during the night, possibly 2-4 am.

 

The course of the storm will be due west heading and looks like it will slow down after passing the mountains, wind shear is likely minimal (as in wind shear that would disrupt the cyclone causing it to dissipate) due to the distance of the mountains from NST and low lying plains along the entire coast.

 

Please everyone use caution, as winds of 100kmph can be expected near the center.

 

Those of us in NST to Surat should prepare for the worst, I will check out the other models posted earlier.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

[Sheryl]

I'm hearing much earlier predictions of landfall e.g. in the next 2 hours.

 

Thai military are now evacuating villages in   Tha Sala district.

[Stocky]

3 hours ago, phuketsub said:

The eye is due East offshore of Ranode District here in Songkhla now now and the situation here is very windy, with very sustained winds around 50kph, but nothing like hurricane force. Still, these are the strongest sustained winds I have experienced in 30 years living in Thailand.

Seems landfall will split the German and NOAA models, just north of NST, but not as far north a Samui. Hat Yai airport was working fine, just rain and a strong breeze in Hat Yai this morning, plenty of rain overnight. Flight out was lumpy but nothing particularly bad.

 

No doubt the North South Highway will be cut by floods in poor old Thung Song, the locals must have webbed feet round there.

 

.

[mommysboy]

In Surat Thani city we are experiencing continual rain, which has been steadily worsening. As yet, the situation could not be described as severe, but it is an unusual weather pattern.  The wind is beginning to kick up.