High Risk Of Civil War In Southern Thailand

[blam]

I went to Betong last month. Great little town., it's on the Thai/Malaysian border a few hours west of Yala city. Also, we did manage to go to Yala and Pattani just to see what's up. It is hard to like what you see. Not so much in the city, but in the surrounding rural areas: The Thai government has literally GIVEN these people everything. Electricity, water, telecommunications, transportation, highways... everything. But the local people have made a mess of it all.

Betong is essentially Chinese, about 65%, and is a very nice, very clean little town. It is very unique and has a great history, but now, the Muslims want the Chinese out. The Muslims want their goats and their unbelievable squalor (read below) taking over the streets and they want the Southern Thai dirty lazy lifestyle to rule the town.

Fact: The roads to everywhere in the far south have large blockades with riprap broken concrete and crossed steel spiked tubing protruding, they are imposing & effective and sit in the middle impeding all traffic. There are sandbag protected huts off to the side of the roads surrounded by concertina wire and small artillery, just the tops of helmets and guns sticking up are visible. There are units of heavily armed soldiers walking along the roads every few miles. Soldiers with M-16s hanging out at the 7-11s are commonplace. The airports are surrounded by hastily made chain link fences with high density large-loop concertina wire, and the runways are essentially ringed with gun turreted trucks.

So... Hey people, it LOOKS like a war zone down there already. If somebody wants to call it a 'civil war' zone, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch of the imagination at all, and it actually sounds more correct according to what you are seeing.

...

Traveling: As far as I could see with my own eyes, my wife agreeing, is that the Muslim villages are dirty, very very very dirty. I felt like saying, "Hey, if somebody' just comes in here and blows this place totally to h#ll, nobody is going to miss it. Not for an instant" It is that disgusting. But, I am an educated man, and have traveled the world extensively. I tried to look into the self righteousness of the local Southern Muslims as simply uneducated but spoiled, and tried to see beyond their mess. The normal Islamic world is not nearly so extreme. Here, there are kids and good people that happen to be of the Islamic faith, and it is an awful thing to think of what is is going to happen in the near future. But listen, there is something going on here that is out of control, and it is NOT THAI, and NOT OF THAI ORIGIN. It very much reminded me of places that I have seen in the poorer areas of Egypt.

...

Unfortunately, the situation looks grim, and I have a feeling that this will end up like every other Muslim versus (name your religion here), the perps are going to destroy it all by themselves. And, they will take anything and everything of value and destroy it as well.

The Buddhist Thais should get out of there, the Chinese should sell their businesses and get out of there, the Muslims are going to destroy it. It almost seems that certain.

What can the Thai government do? This situation could take Thailand right down the same road as Bosnia. If they strong arm, they lose, (ethnic cleansing?) if they placate they lose. It really is a lose lose situation.

Islamic extremist whack jobs have done it again, and they will keep on doing it as long as the real world hasn't returned to the Islamic extremist's dream of a new stone age. I don't have an answer here at all, only the idea that it going to get WAY worse before it gets better, terrorism will the flash point, and it looks like it is already here.

Sorry for any typos, it's late here in Thailand

[bingobongo]

sriracha john and cdnvic, here is another article for you to focus on the author and not content, dont hate the player, hate the game......any vatican influence to help dissuade you of reality?

Waziristanisation Of Sourthern Thailand

The ground situation resembles partly that in the the Waziristan area of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan and partly that in Bangladesh. There are no similarities with the ground situation in the rest of South-East Asia.

http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodna...raman&sid=1

[Casanundra]

It is not totally unknown that the Militants are looking to create a religious powerhouse across the whole of SE Asia. Indonesia and Malaysia are already there, Southern Phillipines like Thailand is in the midst of polticial and economical change and will slowly fall under the cosh at some point in the next 20 years if not sooner. After that, it will probably start to creep up again from there. One has to wonder, but how long will it be before it links with its brothers in central Asia and then into the middle east and then into the already infiltrated west.

My father for years has been saying that with the infiltration of the PC west and our accomodating ways to let anyone come in and expand that there will be a trumpet call one day and there will be an uprising of "ally and his underpants" with everyone weilding rather big kitchen knives.

When you look back through history, you can see that the communists openly tried it and where eventually pushed out of the way. The Romans openly tried it and succeeded for a while and then they too where eventually pushed out of the way. The Germans, quickly followed by the the Japanese, and they openly tried it and look what happened to them. The key word here is 'openly'. The religious nutters in my view have chosen a different tact to the Romans and the Germans and the Communists. They are doing it discreetly and quietly. They are moving in and infiltrating and merging into society. Some may openly create a mild spread of fear by their sacrifice for holy matrydom giving us all a taste of the new regime to come but the majortiy are in it for the long haul. One day, when everything is right, these people will eventually rise up and dominate those of us who sat around and let it happen.

If we look back, we can see that we have a huge case load of history that shows us that it has a habit of repeating itself and when the generation 'who remembers' dies and moves on, that is when the new boys who have no idea of the consequences, will move in and repeat it all over again. Those who remember WW1 and WW2 are almost gone, and so it will begin all over again. Iran is shaking its fist, so is Korea, China are expanding like there is no tomorrow, the West is crusading and losing, the UN is floundering, Europe are throwing their hands in the air not knowing what to do and what language to speak and SE Asia is slowly being assimilated... so it begins.

My father will be the first to say 'I told you so' and I too would say it but I will be too busy being out of breath digging an underground network of hobbit holes with all the entrances guarded by dogs who can sniff out the terminators.

Thailand for sure will hit a very huge turning point when a certain event happens here and that is only a matter of time. I hope not to be here when this event happens because it could get very ugly indeed.

Now, would anyone like any: "Popcorn, popcorn... 'Rat on a stick... Frog inna bun...' get it while it's hot!"

Edited February 23, 2007 by Casanundra

[HuskyDog]

The group most influential in causing the troubles in the south is Wahhabist actually, and they are Saudi Arabian in origin.

In the past 15 years, 2,500 Thai-Muslim students graduated from religious schools in Saudi Arabia, 2,500 more from various Islamic universities in the Middle East and South Asia. They ended up as religious teachers in local communities, thereby contributing to the growth of more orthodox and radical versions of Islam, such as Wahhabi and fundamentalist Islam. Politically radical young ustaz and their students became protagonists of the movement of Umna-ism in southern Thailand.

Thailand’s ethnic-Malay Muslims traditionally practice a moderate and syncretic variant of Islam, Sufism—Sunni Islam with a mystical moderate edge. Over the past few decades, however, purist Salafi (and more specifically Wahhabi) teaching has been gaining ground—propelled by donations from charities and benefactors in the Middle East and fostering a greater orthodoxy in many of the increasing number of religious schools.

Wahhabism is an austere form of Islam that insists on a literal interpretation of the Koran. Strict Wahhabis believe that all those who don't practice their form of Islam are heathens and enemies.

Wahhabis claim to interpret the words of the prophet Muhammad directly, using the four maddhabs for reference.

Wahhabis see their role as a movement to restore Islam due to innovations, deviations, heresies and idolatries..

[morrobay]

high risk of civil war in southern thailand

This continuing situation should certainly lead to the Thai Baht increasing its value against

the USD. Threat of Civil War = 30/$1 - Civil War = 25/$1 - Total Collapse = 20/$1-

The Bizarro World of Thai economics must make teaching business classes at the Thai

Universities very difficult.

L&J,

Would you explain your logic on the Thai baht appreciating during civil war and collapse.

I think the logic would be depreciation of the baht.

Edited February 23, 2007 by morrobay

[slim]

It is not totally unknown that the Militants are looking to create a religious powerhouse across the whole of SE Asia. Indonesia and Malaysia are already there, Southern Phillipines like Thailand is in the midst of polticial and economical change and will slowly fall under the cosh at some point in the next 20 years if not sooner. After that, it will probably start to creep up again from there. One has to wonder, but how long will it be before it links with its brothers in central Asia and then into the middle east and then into the already infiltrated west.

This may well be the case in Muslim dominated countries but to suggest that Thailand could eventually be turned in a Muslim state is unrealistic just as it is to suggest the UK or any other non-Islamic country could.

The will of the people ultimately always prevails and the worlds democratic countries will remain democratic. Mohammed Ajeeb CBE was the first Asian elected Lord Mayor in the United Kingdom in Bradford and good luck to him if Bradford want an Asian mayor but Bradford is and will always remain a Christian city ruled by a Christian monarch and Christian government.

The threat to the world by fundamental Islamic extremists is real enough but their agenda is not world dominance or a desire that everyone converts to Islam. How could it be when less than 25% of the worlds population are Muslim.

The Islamic extremists in Southern Thailand (or rather the 4 Muslim dominated provinces of Southern Thailand) seek independence from what they consider (rightly or wrongly) as their land controlled by a foreign country (similar to Northern Ireland and the agenda of the IRA).

The further north you go from these 4 provinces the percentage of Muslims in the population falls dramatically. Songkhla - 33% muslim,

Phatthalung Province - 11%, Nakhon Si Thammarat Province even less so they would have no power base and no popular support.

Edited February 23, 2007 by slim

[HuskyDog]

Please read this carefully, as there is no religion bashing here at all.

Unfortunately this is what the problem in the south is all about. There are fanatics there who cannot accept anything other than a very strict form of Islam that states that anyone who does not believe in their way of thinking should be destroyed. The quotes from Islamic law etc. are just ways to help you understand the mentality behind them. They want this law imposed on the world in the very strictest sense. This is why it is fair to say that there is a civil war in Thailand, as the fundamentalists in the south are at war and they are not about to call a truce.

There needs to be a very clear line drawn between moderate Islam, and the fundamentalists who are behind the killings and bombings in the south. Moderate Muslims are in the majority, and they have no issues with non-Muslims. The peaceful and harmonious coexistence of devout Muslims with the religious minorities living in their midst, their equally harmonious relationship with the fruits of western civilization proves conclusively that the adherents of real Islam are not violent fanatics and that mainstream Islam has nothing to do with the Wahhabi model of militant Islam.

Mainstream Islam has accepted the possibility of Muslims merging with the rest of humanity, while Wahhabism regards this as impossible and unacceptable. Wahabbi Islam demands the eventual collapse of the West and its replacement with an Islamic theocracy – a goal shared by all Islamic terrorists.

[sriracha john]

Good God, that was a good post, Mai Krap...

But not relevant to the topic which is Southern Thailand.

Astral

[Brutiniero]

It is funny to see how some "Westerners" defend the Muslims

Yes they are not that bad. Only look around !

Only the day a Muslim stand up and defend the rights of a Westerner is the day I start to relax a bit over all this mess they have done currently.

About Thailand becomming Muslim i can laught too, Good God that Thailand is not as democratic as we sometimes wish. They will go full force if it comes to this.

Only my 2 cents

[blam]

My wife and I go to a Muslim food restaurant here in Patong Beach about once a week. The Khao Mok Gai and Khao Mun Gai are the best in Phuket. I have never seen another farang there. Strange, but everything is written in pseudo Farsi and the Islamic Star and Crescent are large and imposing enough I suppose...

We usually have conversations there with a guy that says he goes to the restaraunt (Lahn ahahn Musaleem) virtually every morning, a Thai trucker by trade, and a Thai Muslim by faith. He reads the newspaper and drinks 'Oliang' and chats with everybody naturally. At times we have talked about the problems in the south, and he doesn't seem to care that it's a touchy subject at all. In fact, he starts it up.

Today we talked about the rubber factory and the loss of money and life. We also talked about the possibility of real civil war sparking in Yala or Pattani, and I made mention of the fact that everybody that lives in Phuket knows that if the extremists set off even the tiniest little bomb here in Patong Beach, the economy and lifestyle, as we all know it here, will end... instantly.

The answer and reply from the Thai trucker? (I understood it the first time, but had my wife translate it one more time just to be sure.) He said, "If those people do anything to touch the lives of my family, I will go kill them all." Well, I was more than a little shaken by the strength of his statement, and of course he could just been blowing smoke to peacock to the waitresses. But, I really got a sense from him of the feeling here in Phuket, when he literally said the words "those people". There is something deeper going on here. I don't think that the normal Thai Muslims are going to stand for the brand of religious fanaticism being played out in the deep south.

Apparently in successful Phuket, the sympathies are not with the fanatics. Or maybe they just know what side of their mahtaba is buttered.

[ColPyat]

and it is NOT THAI, and NOT OF THAI ORIGIN.

That is because the local population is not ethnic Thai.

They are ethic Malay.

Edited February 23, 2007 by ColPyat

[ColPyat]

There is something deeper going on here. I don't think that the normal Thai Muslims are going to stand for the brand of religious fanaticism being played out in the deep south.

Because Thai Muslims are ethnic Thai, and the indigenous population of Pattani is ethnic Malay. They may share the same faith, but they have different languages, culture and ethnicy.

Religion does of course play a role, but the conflict in the south is more of an ethnic/seperatist conflict than a religious one.

Edited February 23, 2007 by ColPyat

[thedude]

There needs to be a very clear line drawn between moderate Islam, and the fundamentalists who are behind the killings and bombings in the south.

its interesting to me why the moderates are not themselves seen actively drawing this clear line.

maybe i have not been paying attention, but why aren't the majority taking responsibility to purge the extremists among them? is it the inherently pacifist nature of the moderates that is ironically fueling the problem?

i think this contributes to the problem non-muslims face, some choose to sympathise and make excuses on their behalf and call for understanding, while others sense that this is something that needs far more urgent action. i kind of appreciate both sides of the argument, but i fear that if left to our own devices, we wouldn't/couldn't be more discriminating when a final 'solution' becomes apparent.

[bobbin]

Crash! That was the sound of me tipping off the "balanced" beam!

35 years ago, I spent a couple of years living in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. Many muslim men i met at that time loved to sip Johnnie Walker whenever the opportunity presented itself. Similar to "jack Mormons", a name given to people (primarily men), who like a drink even though their religion forbids drinking alcohol. These are people who avoid being absolutists. Sometimes it is difficult to break out of the "clubs" we are subscribed to at birth. Intelligent men will find a way to round off the rough corners of some of these clubs. So my personal experiences with muslims like this influenced my feelings that Islam was "just another religion".

Then came 9/11. I went to the internet for more information on why so many of the attackers were Saudis. This is when I became aware of Wahabiism, the very austere (and some would say primitive) sect of Islam popular within Saudi Arabia. This Wahabi version is the one being propagated throughout the muslim world by the Saudis, funded by their vast petro-wealth. This is the version of Islam that wants to confront the unbelievers. This is the version introduced to S.E.Asia in the last 20 years and the idealogical backbone of the separatists in Southern Thailand.

As one poster noted it is not because of poverty and nothing to lose that we are seeing a muslim insurgency. If that were true the impoverished farmers of Issan would be (and could be) a much bigger problem.

I posit that a worldwide moratorium on check-book missionaries of All religions, instituted by the UN, is the way to proceed. As was done with land-mines and currently with clusterbombs, which were not, but should have been, sponsored by the UN. For the same reasons. A danger to the social fabric of this planet and to innocent people. If indigenous preachers arise make sure they are self-funded, using the same forensic accounting practices currently used by the Americans and Europeans in their fight against extremists.

Specifically relating to the separatist movement of Southern Thailand, perhaps Thailand could take a lesson from my own country Canada. As many know, we have our own problems in this area. A substantial population that speaks a different language. That felt they were disenfranchised. After many years, significant progress has been made in addressing the issue. More relional autonomy was offered and accepted. National inclusion.i.e. we value you our fellow citizens. And of course the stick. In the event of eventual separaration, a bill for all improvements made to the area with the tax dollars of the majority population.

[quiksilva]

There needs to be a very clear line drawn between moderate Islam, and the fundamentalists who are behind the killings and bombings in the south.

its interesting to me why the moderates are not themselves seen actively drawing this clear line.

maybe i have not been paying attention, but why aren't the majority taking responsibility to purge the extremists among them? is it the inherently pacifist nature of the moderates that is ironically fueling the problem?

Perhaps its something to do with all those beheadings going on.

[Old Man River]

Religion does of course play a role, but the conflict in the south is more of an ethnic/seperatist conflict than a religious one.

Reasons for the conflict aside, the tactics on fighting this conflict have changed and are being well funded. Thaksin, for all he did wrong (my view, not yours), did identify that international terrorism is now at Thailand's doorstep. While the current Thai government is finally realizing this, they are reticent to openly admit it given that they have many times spoken against the former PM's views on the south.

Hence, what we have now is violence in the south like never seen before, university students being recruited and warnings that the violence is heading towards Bangkok. The olive branch diplomacy, sadly, doesn't work on international terrorists.

[ColPyat]

Religion does of course play a role, but the conflict in the south is more of an ethnic/seperatist conflict than a religious one.

Reasons for the conflict aside, the tactics on fighting this conflict have changed and are being well funded. Thaksin, for all he did wrong (my view, not yours), did identify that international terrorism is now at Thailand's doorstep. While the current Thai government is finally realizing this, they are reticent to openly admit it given that they have many times spoken against the former PM's views on the south.

Hence, what we have now is violence in the south like never seen before, university students being recruited and warnings that the violence is heading towards Bangkok. The olive branch diplomacy, sadly, doesn't work on international terrorists.

Tactics may have evolved now, but i still have my doubts that the international djihad is much involved there. Of course there will be links, no doubt about that.

I don't see that the present attacks require much funding other than can be earned in the local underground economy, by protection rackets and smuggling operations. If i am not mistaken, there are no sophisticated weapons yet, no foreign battalions of jihadists, no larger battles, no "liberated zones".

International terrorism is one of those magic words that are fashionable to use. But i still doubt that in many parts of the world it actually is what is is made out to be. Many islamic separatist groups are not part of the jihad, and are hesitant, knowing that the Jihadi ideology is opposite of their own.

If you look for example at the Aceh conflict, what ended this conflict was diplomacy, and concessions from both sides when the time was right, when both sides were tired of the killing, and have both lost credibility as both have used the same brutal tactics.

There is still a lot we don't know what is going on in the south, and i would be very hesitant to jump to pannicky conclusions unless we have more evidence.

It might very well escalate in the future, but we cannot base our judgements on speculation and uncomfirmed hearsay.

Edited February 23, 2007 by ColPyat

[HuskyDog]

There needs to be a very clear line drawn between moderate Islam, and the fundamentalists who are behind the killings and bombings in the south.

its interesting to me why the moderates are not themselves seen actively drawing this clear line.

maybe i have not been paying attention, but why aren't the majority taking responsibility to purge the extremists among them? is it the inherently pacifist nature of the moderates that is ironically fueling the problem?

Perhaps its something to do with all those beheadings going on.

You got it! Ordinary people are terrified because if they are seen to be collaborating with the enemy they will be killed just the same. The Wahhabist Muslims are absolutely fanatical and see even other Muslims who do not share their extreme views as almost as bad as the non-believers themselves.

This really is terrorism in its truest form - it's a case of do what I want or you die! Nobody want to put their head up just to have it shot off!

[moskito]

Buddhism is the only religion I know that says there are many paths up the mountain, just get climbing.

I love Buddhism.

Me tooooo BUT do anyone here think the population reallly lives the way Buddha told??

They are Buddhist by birth, guess 80% of Thai ppl dont even know Buddhas full name

and what he said.

Government have to wake up asap before the conflict spread to the tourism industrie....and

it will!! They behave like they dont need that income anymore.

If anybody dont belive whats going on in south...move to Yala or Pattani for some days

....and please STOP to blame muslims for everything bad in the world, its what massmedia suggests cause THEY need a new enemy after cold war was over....

we got problems with moslem population in germany too, i dont like it either but its our governments make it to easy for them.....som nam naaaaaa

[thedude]

International terrorism is one of those magic words that are fashionable to use. But i still doubt that in many parts of the world it actually is what is is made out to be. Many islamic separatist groups are not part of the jihad, and are hesitant, knowing that the Jihadi ideology is opposite of their own.

If you look for example at the Aceh conflict, what ended this conflict was diplomacy, and concessions from both sides when the time was right, when both sides were tired of the killing, and have both lost credibility as both have used the same brutal tactics.

i cannot agree about Aceh. i think the thing that ended the conflict was actually the tsunami and the subsequent series of earthquakes. so much devastation was wrought on Aceh that separatist ideals had to take a back seat. they couldn't even get a roof over their heads and food to eat. the indonesian army came in with aid, in exchange for peace. the new indonesian government is also mindful to now bring in fresh investments to rebuild Aceh, and i suppose they must be thinking that improving economic dependence and prosperity will quell further demands for independence. i guess time will tell, but this is essentially how the moderate malaysian government managed to keep malaysia quite moderate by creating wealth and ultimately giving people a livelihood worth protecting.

this raises an interesting question, are the insurgents in the south separatists (as we are usually informed in the press), or are there perhaps fundmentalists emerging amongst them? its seems to me that groups like PULO are openly against the government but they dont claim responsibility for the violence.

[ColPyat]

i cannot agree about Aceh. i think the thing that ended the conflict was actually the tsunami and the subsequent series of earthquakes.

One of the lesser known facts about Aceh is that the catchy phrase by the media about the tsunami ending the conflict was a lie.

In reality the peace process involved several rounds of negotiations started by an Skandinavian businessman with excellent links to the Indonesian military, who also works closely together with an important conflict management agency.

He has, after the first rounds of talks collapsed, searched contact with the leadership of the Free Aceh Movement, and managed to bring both sides on the table, as he was convinced that both were willing to make peace, but the time was simply not right.

That took all place before the tsunami hit, and the MOU was countersigned one day before the Tsunami.

The peace process was supervised by the excellent, and very low key involvement by a combined ASEAN and EU agency.

Basically, the interesting part here is, that responsible business can achieve much more than government diplomats, as they are not bound by protocol. This is the way for the future in many areas of conflict solutions, where business and social activism do not need to be on opposite sides.

[Mai Krap]

My wife and I go to a Muslim food restaurant here in Patong Beach about once a week. The Khao Mok Gai and Khao Mun Gai are the best in Phuket. I have never seen another farang there. Strange, but everything is written in pseudo Farsi and the Islamic Star and Crescent are large and imposing enough I suppose...

We usually have conversations there with a guy that says he goes to the restaraunt (Lahn ahahn Musaleem) virtually every morning, a Thai trucker by trade, and a Thai Muslim by faith. He reads the newspaper and drinks 'Oliang' and chats with everybody naturally. At times we have talked about the problems in the south, and he doesn't seem to care that it's a touchy subject at all. In fact, he starts it up.

Today we talked about the rubber factory and the loss of money and life. We also talked about the possibility of real civil war sparking in Yala or Pattani, and I made mention of the fact that everybody that lives in Phuket knows that if the extremists set off even the tiniest little bomb here in Patong Beach, the economy and lifestyle, as we all know it here, will end... instantly.

The answer and reply from the Thai trucker? (I understood it the first time, but had my wife translate it one more time just to be sure.) He said, "If those people do anything to touch the lives of my family, I will go kill them all." Well, I was more than a little shaken by the strength of his statement, and of course he could just been blowing smoke to peacock to the waitresses. But, I really got a sense from him of the feeling here in Phuket, when he literally said the words "those people". There is something deeper going on here. I don't think that the normal Thai Muslims are going to stand for the brand of religious fanaticism being played out in the deep south.

Apparently in successful Phuket, the sympathies are not with the fanatics. Or maybe they just know what side of their mahtaba is buttered.

Youre onto something that flys over the heads of most of the posters on this subject. Not to many on the forum follow the basic rule of "write about what you know", Nice to see that you do.

[astral]

There is still a great difficulty in keeping to the topic, which is Southern Thailand.....................

Topic closed.