EC under pressure to reveal formula for calculation of MPs

By KAS CHANWANPEN 
THE NATION

 

File photo

 

MORE CONFUSION ensued in the post-election scenario after multiple formulae were cited to come up with a tally on the number of MPs each party would have, while the authorities appeared reluctant to clear the air.

 

Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot warned that this confusion can lead to lawsuits, which will further complicate post-poll politics.

 

In a Chulalongkorn University live-stream, Stithorn explained that currently at least two formulae can be used to calculate the number of MPs each party was entitled to. One formula allows several small parties to each gain a seat in the Lower House, while the other allocates seats to bigger parties based on the number of votes won. 

 

The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law, will affect parties that have enough quota to get party-list MPs, the expert explained. He said Pheu Thai will not be affected because it has already won more constituency MPs than the calculation allows. 

 

But no matter which formula the Election Commission (EC) decides to use, there will be winners and losers. Stithorn said it is possible that some parties or candidates may petition the Constitutional Court for a ruling, a delay process that could make politics more difficult.

 

The final results on the number of MPs for by each party will become crucial for the formation of a coalition. The pro- and anti-junta camps are now in a neck-and-neck race with both of them having close to, or a little over 250 MPs, needed to form a legitimate government.

 

If the EC endorses the calculation that will allow over 10 MPs from different small parties into Parliament, it is speculated that they are more likely to back the pro-junta camp and put their rival at a disadvantage. While the agency has kept mum and insisted on finalising the matter in May in line with the deadline set by the relevant organic law, former EC member Somchai Srisuthiyakorn warned this could be vital for the commissioners.

 

In such a close win-lose situation, political parties will definitely approach the court, Somchai said. If it is proved that the commissioners had picked one formula over the other to favour a particular party, the punishment could be imprisonment, the former commissioner added.

 

Following this confusion, politicians and the public yesterday demanded that the agency disclose the calculation method that will be used to allocate MP seats. This was added to the previously unresponded demand for the agency to disclose voting data from each polling station and explain the discrepancies in figures. 

 

Pheu Thai, though not directly affected by the calculation, issued a statement pressing the EC to publish the formula it would use, so as to prevent any political exploitation. 

 

With over 10 small parties now having the possibility of getting one seat in exchange for a very small number of votes, Pheu Thai noted that the EC should consider the stipulation that did not allow parties to get seats they were not entitled to. Having been bombarded with harsh criticism since election day, the EC got some respite yesterday when a group of some 10 supporters showed up at their office and gave them flowers to show their support.

 

The group said critics should give EC time to work through the election and accept the rules or the country will not be able to move forward.

 

Separately, junta leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha also issued a similar message, saying the public should listen to the agency’s explanation and asked everyone not to cause chaos.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30366948

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-04-02

 

"...The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law, will affect parties that have enough quota to get party-list MPs, the expert explained...|

 

It is a shocking breach of international norms and 'Best Practices' that the formula to be utilized isn't widely known to the public, or at least to the political parties; it is a cornerstone to public trust that all methods for resolving the election are the open and transparent before the election.

 

Given the lack of preparation by the EC, the incompetence displayed in both the advance vote and on voting day, the voluminous complaints since election day, the controversy regarding advance ballots from outside the country, the slow release of information and now the secrecy regarding the allocation method, one has to wonder if these elections were ever meant to be serious (Yes, I know... Sigh...).

 

The Thai public has been quite passive and patient for the last five years or so regarding their political representatives, but a terrifically botched election is one element that would likely awaken both passions and anger; few societies would accept such a stunning display of ineptitude by their public representatives.

 

Interesting times... very interesting times. 

 

PS The last successful election was in 2011. What have the EC commissioners and staff been doing for 8 years? How much salary have the EC commissioners and staff been receiving for the last 8 years? How much in international travel have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in perks have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in health insurance have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in retirement benefits have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years?

 

These seem like valid questions...

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law,

Just as officialdom here likes it. Laws open to 'interpretation' by their founders who can then take maximum benefit for themselves. We already have a very strange situation whereby the party that claims the most votes gets party-list MP's and the party that didn't even contest in some areas gets none. 

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

junta leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha also issued a similar message, saying the public should listen to the agency’s explanation and asked everyone not to cause chaos.

General Prayuth and his cronies are the very people who devised a complicated system with hidden rules and is himself the cause of any chaos, not the people who are listening to the agencies various unsatisfactory explanations.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

MORE CONFUSION ensued in the post-election scenario after multiple formulae were cited to come up with a tally on the number of MPs each party would have, while the authorities appeared reluctant to clear the air.

tragi-comical

The simplified formula is B+A+H+T = result????

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law, will affect parties that have enough quota to get party-list MPs, the expert explained...|

 

It is a shocking breach of international norms and 'Best Practices' that the formula to be utilized isn't widely known to the public, or at least to the political parties; it is a cornerstone to public trust that all methods for resolving the election are the open and transparent before the election.

 

Given the lack of preparation by the EC, the incompetence displayed in both the advance vote and on voting day, the voluminous complaints since election day, the controversy regarding advance ballots from outside the country, the slow release of information and now the secrecy regarding the allocation method, one has to wonder if these elections were ever meant to be serious (Yes, I know... Sigh...).

 

The Thai public has been quite passive and patient for the last five years or so regarding their political representatives, but a terrifically botched election is one element that would likely awaken both passions and anger; few societies would accept such a stunning display of ineptitude by their public representatives.

 

Interesting times... very interesting times. 

 

PS The last successful election was in 2011. What have the EC commissioners and staff been doing for 8 years? How much salary have the EC commissioners and staff been receiving for the last 8 years? How much in international travel have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in perks have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in health insurance have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in retirement benefits have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years?

 

These seem like valid questions...

 

Valid questions, yes - that could lead to attitude adjustment for those asking such difficult questions. 

Having said that, the two part question can best be answered as follows :

1. Nothing productive. 

2. Heaps. 

Well the Electoral Commission has fairly obviously decided that the pro junta coalition has already "won", judging by the speed with which they announced, and the importance which they attach, to the specious and rather unverifiable concept of " winning the popular vote".

 

The Senate can be relied upon to put Prayut in the Prime Ministers office. The focus for the EC, in the next two months, must be to manipulate the results to ensure that he has a working majority.

 

The process is in fact remarkably transparent, in as much as everybody, down to and including my Chihuahuas, cannot fail to be aware of what is going on, even if the mechanics are secret. It has the cubed root of b*gg*r all to do with electoral fairness or representative democracy. The election has been stolen, the Thai electorate have again been robbed.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

If the EC endorses the calculation that will allow over 10 MPs from different small parties into Parliament, it is speculated that they are more likely to back the pro-junta camp and put their rival at a disadvantage

Of c(o)urse they will. 

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Having been bombarded with harsh criticism since election day, the EC got some respite yesterday when a group of some 10 supporters showed up at their office and gave them flowers to show their support.

And I'm sure they wilted as fast as they were received. 

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

 

The group said critics should give EC time to work through the election and accept the rules or the country will not be able to move forward.

 

Sure the people which are millions of critics should just roll over and lay dead.

Oh, and who specifically is this group of people? Plain clothes military people or their families? 

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:



Separately, junta leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha also issued a similar message, saying the public should listen to the agency’s explanation and asked everyone not to cause chaos.

The agency is an extended puppet arm of the Junta. Why should anyone listen to them? Answer. In order to get them trapped tripping over their tongues so they can be hung out to dry with the phony election.  

Edited April 2, 20197 yr by holy cow cm

It should not be forgotten that the EC members are new to the job, having been approved by the junta last year. I wonder what attribtes they needed to fulfil this role? Experience, kill and neutrality don't spring to mind whereas subservience and financial ambition do, for some reason.

 

 

In such a close win-lose situation, political parties will definitely approach the court......

 

Aaaahhh, fear not, Thailand's perfectly impartial, blinded by justice, honest to a fault courts will ensure justice prevails.

Nobody who knows Thais would have expected anything less than total chaos.

 

A country where people can barely manage to put pipes together without leaking is one that cannot manage ANY kind of national initiative. 

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

PS The last successful election was in 2011. What have the EC commissioners and staff been doing for 8 years?

Not sure about the employees, but most of the commissioners are relatively new to the job having only been appointed by the "government" last year. As pointed out by madmitch above.

 

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

How much in international travel have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years?

Lots, including a "fact finding" trip the week before the election allegedly.

 

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

How much in perks have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in health insurance have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in retirement benefits have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years?

 

Again some of the commissioners have been around for the 8 years or so, but most were only introduced to the job last year following the passing of the organic laws needed to make an election possible following the new constitution.

 

The appointment of a "fresh new" election commission was meant to guide the election to a successful conclusion, they are working on it as we speak.

6 minutes ago, Chang_paarp said:

Not sure about the employees, but most of the commissioners are relatively new to the job having only been appointed by the "government" last year. As pointed out by madmitch above.

 

Lots, including a "fact finding" trip the week before the election allegedly.

 

Again some of the commissioners have been around for the 8 years or so, but most were only introduced to the job last year following the passing of the organic laws needed to make an election possible following the new constitution.

 

The appointment of a "fresh new" election commission was meant to guide the election to a successful conclusion, they are working on it as we speak.

They certainly are "working on it" ????

13 minutes ago, Chang_paarp said:

Not sure about the employees, but most of the commissioners are relatively new to the job having only been appointed by the "government" last year. As pointed out by madmitch above.

 

Lots, including a "fact finding" trip the week before the election allegedly.

 

Again some of the commissioners have been around for the 8 years or so, but most were only introduced to the job last year following the passing of the organic laws needed to make an election possible following the new constitution.

 

The appointment of a "fresh new" election commission was meant to guide the election to a successful conclusion, they are working on it as we speak.

Please do NOT edit my post.

 

I don't have a complaint regarding your comments, but cutting up my post for your own convenience isn't right; you can easily respond to my words by quoting everything or quoting nothing.

 

I make an effort to write a comprehensive, holistic post and while I welcome either agreement or disagreement, it annoys me greatly when my post and/or words are edited without my permission.

 

Thank you

 

 

Edited April 2, 20197 yr by Samui Bodoh

13 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Please do NOT edit my post.

 

I don't have a complaint regarding your comments, but cutting up my post for your own convenience isn't right; you can easily respond to my words by quoting everything or quoting nothing.

 

I make an effort to write a comprehensive, holistic post and while I welcome either agreement or disagreement, it annoys me greatly when my post and/or words are edited without my permission.

 

Thank you

 

 

Your posts are long and quoting them completely will clutter the forum with huge texts.
Next the person quoting your whole text needs to point out which part they are reacting to, and using bold or italics is not allowed as that means editing your post.

 

Just live with the fact that when you post on a public forum people can edit your posts to react to part of it. If you dont like it, stop posting on forums (or keep reporting every incident like you are doing already).

5 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

"...The uncertainty, stemming from different interpretations of the law, will affect parties that have enough quota to get party-list MPs, the expert explained...|

 

It is a shocking breach of international norms and 'Best Practices' that the formula to be utilized isn't widely known to the public, or at least to the political parties; it is a cornerstone to public trust that all methods for resolving the election are the open and transparent before the election.

 

Given the lack of preparation by the EC, the incompetence displayed in both the advance vote and on voting day, the voluminous complaints since election day, the controversy regarding advance ballots from outside the country, the slow release of information and now the secrecy regarding the allocation method, one has to wonder if these elections were ever meant to be serious (Yes, I know... Sigh...).

 

The Thai public has been quite passive and patient for the last five years or so regarding their political representatives, but a terrifically botched election is one element that would likely awaken both passions and anger; few societies would accept such a stunning display of ineptitude by their public representatives.

 

Interesting times... very interesting times. 

 

PS The last successful election was in 2011. What have the EC commissioners and staff been doing for 8 years? How much salary have the EC commissioners and staff been receiving for the last 8 years? How much in international travel have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in perks have the EC commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in health insurance have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years? How much in retirement benefits have the commissioners and staff received in the last 8 years?

 

These seem like valid questions...

 

Samui Bodoh I can answer your first question. The EC Commissioners and staff from the 2011 election were all removed and replaced by by hand picked people from the Junta. This explains clearly what kind of election this was this year.

What the hell is this latest crock.....the way they calculate the number of prey list MPs is a secret? What if they cheat....sorry I forgot that EC commissioners are above reproach and why the latest string of decisions by them always were made in the best interests of the junta....sorry, I mean justice, the best interests of justice, not junta.

 

Is this not spelled out in the constitution? It cannot be a secret or else it is like saying here's a 150 seats and you, the EC can decide which parties they go to. This is not very democratic is it? Transparency in all things political is needed to keep these self-serving <deleteds> from cheating.

5 hours ago, JAG said:

Well the Electoral Commission has fairly obviously decided that the pro junta coalition has already "won", judging by the speed with which they announced, and the importance which they attach, to the specious and rather unverifiable concept of " winning the popular vote".

 

The Senate can be relied upon to put Prayut in the Prime Ministers office. The focus for the EC, in the next two months, must be to manipulate the results to ensure that he has a working majority.

 

The process is in fact remarkably transparent, in as much as everybody, down to and including my Chihuahuas, cannot fail to be aware of what is going on, even if the mechanics are secret. It has the cubed root of b*gg*r all to do with electoral fairness or representative democracy. The election has been stolen, the Thai electorate have again been robbed.

 

It would seem a rather simple mathematical problem. In the constituencies, the one who receives the most votes wins. In most countries, not all, processes are in place to make sure votes are cast and counted properly.

 

Then we have that little gem, the Party List seats (which enables the unelectable party "faithful" to be given seats by their parties). How complicated is it to develop a formula to calculate the awarding of seats and then publish it before any election?

 

It's like the old joke about recruiting an accountant. The question is what does 2 plus 2 equal. The first 3 candidates answer 4 and are rejected. The next candidate get's up off his chair, closes all the doors and windows, sits back down and asks "what do you want it to "equal"!

 

Thailand certainly is the hub of bending the rules to suit the desired outcome!

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

What the hell is this latest crock.....the way they calculate the number of prey list MPs is a secret? What if they cheat....sorry I forgot that EC commissioners are above reproach and why the latest string of decisions by them always were made in the best interests of the junta....sorry, I mean justice, the best interests of justice, not junta.

 

Is this not spelled out in the constitution? It cannot be a secret or else it is like saying here's a 150 seats and you, the EC can decide which parties they go to. This is not very democratic is it? Transparency in all things political is needed to keep these self-serving <deleteds> from cheating.

It is spelled out in the constitution.

 

"Section 128 [4] stipulates that any party, which captures fewer votes than is required for a seat will be removed.

 

What it is heading towards, is the best possible outcome for Thailand, given the current circumstances.

 

The junta has cheated, the junta has been caught, the junta is not going to change course, the courts will willingly get involved, the courts will support the junta's cheating and then......... the whole house of cards will collapse.

 

All that remains to be seen is how many people die and how badly the economy is damaged before Thanathorn becomes PM and ends 9 decades of tyranny inflicted upon Thailand by the military.

 

(Oh yeah, somewhere down the track Thaksin and Yingluck will return - horse shit convictions quashed)

(Prayuth and Prawit in jail or exile.............maybe, just maybe)

 

 

I would have thought that all this would have been published before the election was even called and at the latest published before the vote, but this is Thailand. Make the "algorithm" match the desired result I guess. 

Not easy to extract long snouts from a deep trough.

Clearly this is where the PM should be consulted for the right formula, he is a top man used to knowing the way forward, he has moving that way for the last 5 years, a soon as he has sorted the smog out, he will be on the case, problem solved.

12 hours ago, pornprong said:

In such a close win-lose situation, political parties will definitely approach the court......

 

Aaaahhh, fear not, Thailand's perfectly impartial, blinded by justice, honest to a fault courts will ensure justice prevails.

So will power resulting from money or will power resulting from authority attributed to position dictate the "formula" used to determine which party wins? We all know nothing will be a result of impartiality.

It’s looking quite a bit like the watch situation.  Good e them enough time to develop a story.  Missing votes, extra votes, secret calculations...wow-can the people be more united and happy?

12 hours ago, Bob12345 said:

Your posts are long and quoting them completely will clutter the forum with huge texts.
Next the person quoting your whole text needs to point out which part they are reacting to, and using bold or italics is not allowed as that means editing your post.

 

Just live with the fact that when you post on a public forum people can edit your posts to react to part of it. If you dont like it, stop posting on forums (or keep reporting every incident like you are doing already).

Indeed. His entire last paragraph could have been reduced to one simple question. A severe case of verbal diarrhea.

19 hours ago, pornprong said:

In such a close win-lose situation, political parties will definitely approach the court......

 

Aaaahhh, fear not, Thailand's perfectly impartial, blinded by justice, honest to a fault courts will ensure justice prevails.

The parties never should have stood in the first place, given the intolerable restraints on them. Shame on the parties for going along with the whole farce, not the junta who rigged the whole proceedings as they advertised they would(n't).

It is way too late in the day to start crying foul now.