All the numbers add up to woe

[webfact]

All the numbers add up to woe

By The Nation

 

 

Thailand’s creaky political situation only adds to the gloom of a global economy labouring under tensions and doubt

 

Thailand’s March 24 general election has added uncertainty to the country's economic outlook, which is already hampered by global negative factors ranging from the so-called trade wars between the US and China and the US and European Union to the far from settled Brexit issue.

 

According to the Economic Intelligence Centre at Siam Commercial Bank, Thailand’s GDP growth projection for 2019 has been revised downwards from 3.8 to 3.6 per cent to reflect the growing risks. The country’s exports, which account for a big chunk of GDP, have slowed since the start of the year, while private investment growth began retreating even earlier.

 

However, the tourism sector’s recovery remains on track, with this year’s foreign tourist arrivals forecast to increase a further 6.3 per cent, to 40.7 million in the wake of last year’s Phuket boat tragedy and continuing air-pollution issues. Another growth engine has been the public sector’s continued implementation of infrastructure mega-projects.

 

Due to rising domestic and global risks, the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent this year so that economic activity is not affected by monetary policy. On the other hand, inflation is still relatively low, so a higher rate may not be necessary at this stage. However, other measures, especially prudential macro-regulations on financial institutions have been enforced to stem imprudent lending in real estate and other sectors.

 

Externally, the trade conflicts between the US and its major trading partners, namely China and the 28-country EU, have been brewing for an extended period, threatening the global economic outlook, with the International Monetary Fund calling it a “delicate” moment.  

 

The IMF has already revised downward the global economic growth forecast from 3.7 to 3.3 per cent this year, with 2020 growth forecast at 3.6 per cent. In addition, the Brexit uncertainty has served as another negative factor in global economic terms, even though the EU has again extended the deadline for Britain’s decision by another year.

 

These factors have contributed to slower economic growth in developed economies, down to a combined average of only 1.8 per cent this year compared to the previous year’s 2.2 per cent. The outlook for 2020 is no more favourable, with growth forecast at only 1.7 per cent for the developed economies. In other words, major markets – in the US and the EU – are likely to remain unfavourable for exporting countries such as Thailand.

 

In the latest development, Washington has threatened to slap import tariffs on European goods worth a combined $11 billion following a ruling that the EU provided subsidies for European aircraft maker Airbus, causing damage to the American aircraft industry.

 

And of course Thailand’s political stability remains another key factor in its economic outlook, especially after the long-awaited election resulted in two major political camps winning comparable numbers of House seats. The outcome makes it unlikely we will see a strong-majority government in Parliament. Yet the worst-case scenario would be a return to political chaos and violence. We can only hope that won’t be the case.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30367587

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-04-12

[Essecola]

I heard that wearing traditional Thai clothes can help make things better. A return to the old values. Nation first!

[JAG]

19 minutes ago, Essecola said:

I heard that wearing traditional Thai clothes can help make things better. A return to the old values. Nation first!

That is so "last year"!

 

Mind you, we have yet to learn what this year's panacea will be...

[LomSak27]

BackBegpackers don't wear traditional fisherman pants anymore, its all elephant pants, elephant pants, elephant pants.

 

It breaks my heart.

[JAG]

14 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

BackBegpackers don't wear traditional fisherman pants anymore, its all elephant pants, elephant pants, elephant pants.

 

It breaks my heart.

Fishermans pants (a.k.a. Bombay dung hammocks) I understand - what are "elephant pants" - grey and wrinkly?

[mok199]

Donations can be forwarded to ''GOFUNDMETHAILAND.COM''...

[sammieuk1]

One day in the far and distant future the £ may rise by more than a satang and stay there then I may well take an interest in Thai economic winging ????

[LomSak27]

1 minute ago, JAG said:

Fishermans pants (a.k.a. Bombay dung hammocks) I understand - what are "elephant pants" - grey and wrinkly?

just type in elephant pants and google should bring them up. I can't describe them, ugh.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by LomSak27

[neeray]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

However, the tourism sector’s recovery remains on track, with this year’s foreign tourist arrivals forecast to increase a further 6.3 per cent, to 40.7 million in the wake of last year’s Phuket boat tragedy and continuing air-pollution issues.

TAT will see to it that these lofty forecasts are accomplished.

[leeneeds]

GDP  looking to trend  downwards from all the uncertainty and is not surprising really when 

the constitution vs organic laws are now in question as to how many votes equates to a seat in the parliament,  

If so many millions voted and you count those numbers up and then divide the number of seats into that number , then surely to have an amount of votes cast  equal to that number to gain a seat,

 

I love this episode of life in Thailand.

 

[JAG]

51 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

just type in elephant pants and google should bring them up. I can't describe them, ugh.

 

 

Ah, I see! Well, the ones being worn by the rather fit model in the advert looked rather good - better than the fisherman's pants with the crotch around the knees!

 

Not too sure if they would work on a bloke though...

[overherebc]

1 hour ago, sammieuk1 said:

One day in the far and distant future the £ may rise by more than a satang and stay there then I may well take an interest in Thai economic winging ????

Probably the day after I pop my cloggs. ????????

[LomSak27]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

Not too sure if they would work on a bloke though...

That is part of the problem. You see them worn by everyone, including some females who a re not - wait for it - fashion models! Shock, Gasp, Horror.   ????

[Essecola]

"Thailand is for Thai's"

 

If the level of foreigners goes over 1% of the total then it is not Thailand anymore. Too uncomfortable

Edited April 12, 2019 by Essecola

[Eric Loh]

Cutting the chase, empirical studies point to coup governments are never good for the economy and investment even without the current global trade frictions and uncertainties. Thailand keep shooting themselves on the foot in terms of the economic potentials and opportunities; period. 

[Sonhia]

Thailand has had it far too good for far too long. 

 

Just by observation plus the many inputs from both Thai plus foreigners alike, the general consensus is that Thailand should be in a much better position. 

 

For a country that has had so many foreigners invest in it over decades, I too am surprised at the the state of the economy, lack of social services and care plus  infrastructure investment. 

 

The smiles have gone. The politeness has gone, and so has the safety. 

 

Thailand, a place seemingly focused on money and greed. A bad formula which may drive both people and businesses away. 

 

 

 

[Eric Loh]

52 minutes ago, Sonhia said:

Thailand has had it far too good for far too long. 

 

Just by observation plus the many inputs from both Thai plus foreigners alike, the general consensus is that Thailand should be in a much better position. 

 

For a country that has had so many foreigners invest in it over decades, I too am surprised at the the state of the economy, lack of social services and care plus  infrastructure investment. 

 

The smiles have gone. The politeness has gone, and so has the safety. 

 

Thailand, a place seemingly focused on money and greed. A bad formula which may drive both people and businesses away. 

 

 

 

Total agreement with your observation. Thailand is facing steep challenges internally besides the global woe. Unstable governments, aging population, over dependence on export, small domestic economy, poor infrastructure. huge and inefficient bureaucracy, unprofitable state enterprises & education not suited for mobility to a different technology level. Tourism is the sole bright sector but contribute about only about 10% to the economy.

[Roadman]

1 hour ago, Sonhia said:

Thailand has had it far too good for far too long. 

 

Just by observation plus the many inputs from both Thai plus foreigners alike, the general consensus is that Thailand should be in a much better position. 

 

For a country that has had so many foreigners invest in it over decades, I too am surprised at the the state of the economy, lack of social services and care plus  infrastructure investment. 

 

The smiles have gone. The politeness has gone, and so has the safety. 

 

Thailand, a place seemingly focused on money and greed. A bad formula which may drive both people and businesses away. 

 

 

 

Pick a number in years...10, 20, 30...whatever, and probably earlier since the Vietnam war started thrusting Thailand more into western vision. At any point over that period you would have made the same observation that you have made. It does not matter whether it is an incompetent Junta or a corrupt elite disguised as an elected laughable democracy the outcome is the same. But yet the corrupt and incompetent mess the place is still attracts both people and business. And as for safety and greed sponsored by their love of patronage, tourists have been murdered, raped, abused and whatever since Adam was a cowboy but they still flock there. And for the last six odd years they haven’t had government sponsored hoods shooting and bombing civilians in the streets. Perhaps you need to smile first?

[Pedrogaz]

The article is just a hodge lodge of different unrelated numbers. What is actually happening in the Thai economy?

What I notice about every set of figures issued by the relevant government departments is that they are always incomplete. This that you cannot analyse the real meaning behind the feel good spin put on by the PR department.  

For example, we always hear of record numbers of tourist arrivals, but how about how much per tourist capita is spent by them in Thailand? So arrivals are up by 6.3%, but are all arrivals equal? One suspects that richer European tourists have been replaced by floods of Chinese driving arrivals numbers up; but that per capita spend by the Chinese is much less than for the Europeans, meaning that revenue may be flat or even down. So you're 6.3% increase in arrivals might translate to a net loss of income.....you never see a Chinese tourist in a bar in Pattaya drinking overpriced beer. Just sayin'

[Pedrogaz]

1 hour ago, Sonhia said:

Thailand has had it far too good for far too long. 

 

Just by observation plus the many inputs from both Thai plus foreigners alike, the general consensus is that Thailand should be in a much better position. 

 

For a country that has had so many foreigners invest in it over decades, I too am surprised at the the state of the economy, lack of social services and care plus  infrastructure investment. 

 

The smiles have gone. The politeness has gone, and so has the safety. 

 

Thailand, a place seemingly focused on money and greed. A bad formula which may drive both people and businesses away. 

 

 

 

"For a country that has had so many foreigners invest in it over decades"

This sentence struck a chord with me. There is an amazing amount of talent in Thailand in the ex-pat community, but the Thai governments are dead set against using it. We have skilled people here from all walks of life who could be employed to help the country become a real competitor in the global marketplace. But no, the people who run Thailand would rather the place collapse than lose face by asking a foreigner for help.

I am tutoring my wife's nephew in English for an upcoming University test. He has some past papers that we use as a teaching aide. Out of 120 questions on last year's test, fully one third were incorrect. It was clear that the person setting the test could not speak English very well. They could have given a draft test to any English speaker with a 6th grade education and they could have corrected it in minutes....but no, rather put out a stupid ineffective test than ask for help. Sometimes Thailand drives me crazy.

[natway09]

Having lived with 3 juntas in Thailand it is amazing that the economy seems to be able to flourish in spite of them. Maybe that is what Thailand deserves?