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IMF chief Lagarde says Brexit delay avoids 'terrible outcome'


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IMF chief Lagarde says Brexit delay avoids 'terrible outcome'

By David Lawder and Leika Kihara

 

2019-04-11T221846Z_1_LYNXNPEF3A25Q_RTROPTP_4_IMF-WORLDBANK-LAGARDE.JPG

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF in Washington, U.S., April 11, 2019. REUTERS/James Lawler Duggan

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The six-month delay of Britain's exit from the European Union avoids the "terrible outcome" of a "no-deal" Brexit that would further pressure a slowing global economy but does nothing to lift uncertainty over the final outcome, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

 

Moreover, the just-struck arrangement would not resolve the issues between Britain and the EU, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said at a news conference during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

 

Earlier on Thursday, EU leaders gave Britain another six months to sort out its departure from the 28-member bloc, but the reprieve offered no clarity on when, how, or even if Brexit will happen.

 

"At least the UK is not leaving on April 12 without a deal. It gives time for continued discussions between the various parties involved in the UK. It probably gives time for economic agents to better prepare for all options, particularly industrialists and workers, in order to try to secure their future," Lagarde said.

 

"A no-deal Brexit would have been a terrible outcome."

 

While knock-on effects of the Brexit saga are rippling around the world to one extent or another, the three years since the June 2016 referendum to leave the EU have weighed most heavily on Britain.

 

The uncertainty facing British businesses has gone "through the roof" due to Brexit, hurting investment and posing long-term challenges for economic productivity, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said at an event on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

 

Despite an "incredibly tight" labour market, businesses have held off on investment since the referendum, he said.

 

Carney said that while the risk of a no-deal Brexit had been lowered, it remained to be seen how well the extra time is used.

 

"It provides a window of time for a political process, particularly in the UK, to forge a consensus within the House of Commons around the form of agreement. We will see how that time is used," Carney said.

 

RISKS BEYOND BREXIT

Brexit is just one of a clutch of economic risks that prompted the IMF this week to cut its global growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3 percent, the lowest rate since 2016, with a slight rebound to 3.6 percent expected next year.

 

The IMF's No. 2 official, David Lipton, said the institution was not projecting a global recession but the growth slowdown leaves the world in a delicate spot.

 

"We do have to worry about the possibility of recession," he said during a discussion at IMF headquarters.

 

Officials have repeatedly pointed to fraught trade relations as a major culprit behind the global slowdown.

 

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he remained hopeful Japan's export-reliant economy will soon emerge from a soft patch but added that ongoing U.S.-China trade talks loomed over the global outlook.

 

"Protectionism benefits neither the United States nor China," Kuroda told reporters upon arriving for a meeting of Group of 20 finance leaders.

 

Weakness in global trade is making economies rely more on consumers, BoE's Carney said. "Normally when expansions are reliant on the consumer, you start watching the clock, in terms of how much longer it will last."

 

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the most important task for leaders was to eliminate the political risks hindering growth.

 

"It's our job to create an environment of certainty so that companies and consumers can make investments," Scholz told reporters during a short refuelling stop in Iceland on his flight from Berlin to Washington.

 

VENEZUELA QUESTION

Lagarde also said IMF shareholders were still undecided on whether to recognise Venezuelan opposition chief Juan Guaido as the South American country's leader, a step seen as required for the IMF and World Bank to provide aid.

 

President Nicolas Maduro's socialist government has not requested any aid and Venezuela, which is mired in a deep economic crisis marked by widespread shortages of food and medicine, has shunned the IMF since 2004.

 

But the IMF is prepared to move quickly on a package once a decision on the leadership question has been made, Lagarde said. Her comments were echoed by David Malpass, the new president of the World Bank.

 

(Reporting by David Lawder and Leika Kihara; Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, David Milliken and Jason Lange in Washington; William Schomberg in London; and Michael Nienaber in Keflavik, Iceland; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-04-12
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The European economy is so weak it probably wouldn't have withstood a no-deal brexit. But does Christine Lagarde not realise that the diminishing marginal utility of debt is going to create a "terrible outcome" anyway? Here's a graph of the situation in the US. More and more debt is required to create what looks like less and less profit, i.e. declining marginal utility of debt. The situation in Europe is probably much worse. And it is precisely the declining marginal utility of debt that highlights the cancer in the system. If they care so much about not wanting to 'rock the boat' with a no deal brexit, why the complete silence over this much bigger issue?

Rising-Debt-to-EBITDA.png

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16 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Legarde..found guilty in french law court re dodgy financial dealings with Sarcosy..remember him?
No punishment whatsoever as she is one if the chattering class.
Meanwhile in the UK..non payment of eg council tax and you could end up in prison

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Tell us about your council taxes Teddy.

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7 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

I say for the umteenth time, no one, but no one KNOWS for sure the outcome for the UK post BREXIT. 

Those funding the "stay" movement obviously believe that they and the mega corporations that they represent will lose out and the money would be spread out a little more fairly amongst the minions, last thing they want off course........................ :shock1:

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I agree 100%..but please remember that the globalist multi-national companys/financial giants..eg..rothchilds.goldman sachs.citibank.g soros do not want that.
They want a vast vast labour pool of workers..where they can shut down a factory in eg cardiff and move their entire operation to an eastern eu country..saving perhaps 75% of labour costs.
These horrible entities do not give a 2nd thought re the normal working man/woman in the UK
Take the above as the truth.

I say for the umteenth time, no one, but no one KNOWS for sure the outcome for the UK post BREXIT.  Many are guessing and bassing assumptions on present models..........WRONG!  UK could expand trading to the US, Africa, Asean, China and without doubt some of the EU Countries will want to still trade with the UK, even if not, there are other European Countries who do, who are not in the EU.  And MAYBE, just maybe the outs in the future could well exceed the ins!


Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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50 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Wait a minute..when she was no2 in that food chain..her boss dominic strausse?? was binned for something similar..2011/2012 I think.

 


Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

 

 

He was accused of sexual assault by a room maid at a NY Hotel. And involved in a case in France about prostitution.

 

She was was found guilty in a case about finance. But thick skinned enough to remain in her job.

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1 hour ago, robertson468 said:

I say for the umteenth time, no one, but no one KNOWS for sure the outcome for the UK post BREXIT.  Many are guessing and bassing assumptions on present models..........WRONG!  UK could expand trading to the US, Africa, Asean, China and without doubt some of the EU Countries will want to still trade with the UK, even if not, there are other European Countries who do, who are not in the EU.  And MAYBE, just maybe the outs in the future could well exceed the ins!

 

Aye, and maybe just maybe someone will discover where the Unicorns and wild Haggis hide in Scotland.

 

The dynamic and innovative British governments and oppositions will lead the UK to the cusp of a new "golden era" thanks to it's highly skilled workforce whose productivity is legendary eh? Countries will queue up for the privilege to supply the UK and being allowed to buy the wonderful fantastic quality UK products.

 

Right to.

Edited by Baerboxer
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7 hours ago, webfact said:

IMF chief Lagarde says Brexit delay avoids 'terrible outcome'

If May has any involvement in the outcome all that has happened is a “terrible outcome” has been delayed, not avoided. 

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"Weakness in global trade is making economies rely more on consumers, BoE's Carney said. "Normally when expansions are reliant on the consumer, you start watching the clock, in terms of how much longer it will last."

Pesky consumers!

Obviously economies are better run on increased national debt to support the wealth of 1% ! Ermm....Now I understand.????

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