Bangkok Rental Market Collapse?

[tpkhk]

Not much to add, but have a look at Prakard.com - with the name of your condo (they have a grouping for lower Sukhumvit - exactly your area of interest).  You can get an idea of what else is on offer.  The building's management office will also give you a good assessment of the rental prospects - ie. occupancy levels / average rents for your type of unit/ vacant time etc.... which nearby projects are competent etc.  Good to also keep them informed , as agents interact with them all the time.... of course, all this only works if you think the management office is competent and run the building well (ie. they care about it enough to stay informed).  

[Mavideol]

On 5/4/2019 at 9:38 AM, sfokevin said:

If I were you I’d put your “capital appreciation”... In the banks...

Put it up for sale... The Chinese are supposed gobbling up condos now... And they are perfectly happy to let them sit empty which seems to be the new norm...

money laundering has some basic requirements/advantages, let it sit until it cools down

[Mavideol]

On 5/5/2019 at 8:51 AM, madmen said:

A bit OTT? you must be kidding its idiotic!!!

oh boy! oh boy! you are going to get all the negative critical minds now... can't question anybody lately they have a tendency to become very aggressive (figurative)  =

figurative - adjective

of the nature of or involving a figure of speech, especially a metaphor; metaphorical and not literal:

[newnative]

On 5/5/2019 at 9:00 AM, baansgr said:

Im pleased you asked that question and mentioned the land office. When the neysayers and doomongers said look at the lights on in condos, I would always say go to any land office and you will see how busy it is so properties must be selling. However a recent transaction I did at Pattaya land office, I was shocked, myself and one other buyer/seller was all there was that morning...that is a real true reflection of the market in Pattaya.

   And, the last couple of times I was at the Land Office it was busy.  So, go figure.  I think most of the new condo projects in Pattaya are going to become instant hotels from the get go.

[Rod the Sod]

On 5/4/2019 at 6:11 PM, madmen said:

Only on TV can one persons unrented condo trigger a rental market collapse throughout Bangkok. I would be embarrassed to even think about creating a thread about it.

As usual on TV when it comes to words of wisdom on property, the source came from "down the pub".

[ThomasThBKK]

6 hours ago, balo said:

If this is one of the very expensive condos to rent , 30k+ , I can understand it's a limited market now.  
I would try to contact the best agents in Bangkok and give them a nice commision, you need to use all the tricks in the books to find a new tenant. 

 

 

 

That's not really considered expensive in Bangkok. That's the typical farrang condo and totally oversaturated tho. It's prolly way easier to rent a decent penthouse out for 100k+ than that.

[sydneyjed]

On ‎5‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 1:27 PM, Lazy Sod said:

Fair enough. Just for you, let's change the question from "collapse" to "downturn". Hopefully this satisfies you. Kindly now leave thIs thread so that we can have a civilized and insightful discussion based on our actual experience.

Yes a very valid point..a collapse when it did happen here was some 15 years ago and was nothing to do with the economic conditions here now.Where as then the THB crashed I would say the associated reasons for what is happening here now are the strong Baht and other countries weakening economies!Over development will impact on unrealistic yields/returns when you don't have the buyers out there..this is now being felt in Australia for example where Chinese money has now turned to a trickle due to Chinese Government currency restrictions!

[5633572526]

On 5/4/2019 at 10:01 AM, Lazy Sod said:

Thanks for the responses to date, but I'm particularly interested in the central bangkok area, Sukhumvit - Thonglor to Asok.

I have been living in Asok area for 5 years now. Every year I have been here rent prices seem to have dropped. I base this on my experience here of getting a larger condo in the same area for the same cost. I move every year because of this and my innate boredom of being in the same place for more than 1 year. I started in a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom 35 square meter unit and now I am in a 100 square meter 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms unit. 

My condo building has many empty units which is great because the pool and the gym rarely have more than 1 or 2 people in them.

the condo building across sukhumvit from mine is barely 3 years old and has so many empty units the owners have embraced air bnb to provide income. I know this because when my friends visit this is where they stay and I kind of understand This because after 3 years half of the units in that building are still listed for sale or rent.

[varun]

Hipflat has some dashboards that can drill down on a particular condo

and show some basic variables - asking price / sqm, YoY rental price change etc.  

 

This is a better indicator than the anecdotal waffle being regurgitated by the bar stool experts on here.

 

Take the numbers with a grain of salt though - only as a reference and nothing more.

 

[spidermike007]

The market more than likely will correct, as some point. But I do not think it will collapse, as most of these units are owned for cash. So, a very different situation than in Leeds, or in the US. Most people who pay cash for a unit can afford to sit on it for awhile. 

 

But, depends on what happens with the world economy. Personally, I think we are due for a major correction worldwide. Trump's economic policies are designed to create a very short term boost, and one that is not sustainable. When that happens, all bets are off. 

[Halfaboy]

1 hour ago, 5633572526 said:

I have been living in Asok area for 5 years now. Every year I have been here rent prices seem to have dropped. I base this on my experience here of getting a larger condo in the same area for the same cost. I move every year because of this and my innate boredom of being in the same place for more than 1 year. I started in a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom 35 square meter unit and now I am in a 100 square meter 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms unit. 

 

Would you care to share your monthly rent ? 

[ExpatOilWorker]

Deep down you probably know the answer to your own question: PRICE.

 

You feel it is a Grade A1 condo, but a tenant might just see it as one out of many condos in Bangkok.

 

Say, if you are asking 48K rental and end up having it sitting 4 month empty, you could just as well rent it out for 32K and get an near instant tenant.

 

[tingtongtourist]

Of course its unsustainable.

the signs is there in BKK already, to many condos in normal areas over many years and tonmany sittingbhalf vacant.

 

What will finally crush the system IMO, is all the new condos that always going up around the new BTS stations.

(sometimes 3-4 in an area that really dont need it.)

For every 1 new condo bought, someone is just mooving from an old one, and not like they are letting more immigrants in to help. I guess Chinese might buy into it tho.

 

But if Thailand didnt slam the doors on foreigners through the visa system, it might have helped a little, but they are thinking in terms of being more restricting.

 

Even if they gave foriegner a long-term visa for condo purchase minimum 3million, it wouldnt harm Thais and maybe help a small way in the condo market that WILL chrash.

but i cant see that sort of forward thinking here.

 

Put it down to greed and lack of planning..i guess.

 

At least in the west we have competent planning councils and building approvals system, and most country would never allow this sort of over-saturation thing to happen as they know its a train-wreck waiting to happen.

[madmen]

8 minutes ago, tingtongtourist said:

Of course its unsustainable.

the signs is there in BKK already, to many condos in normal areas over many years and tonmany sittingbhalf vacant.

 

What will finally crush the system IMO, is all the new condos that always going up around the new BTS stations.

(sometimes 3-4 in an area that really dont need it.)

For every 1 new condo bought, someone is just mooving from an old one, and not like they are letting more immigrants in to help. I guess Chinese might buy into it tho.

 

But if Thailand didnt slam the doors on foreigners through the visa system, it might have helped a little, but they are thinking in terms of being more restricting.

 

Even if they gave foriegner a long-term visa for condo purchase minimum 3million, it wouldnt harm Thais and maybe help a small way in the condo market that WILL chrash.

but i cant see that sort of forward thinking here.

 

Put it down to greed and lack of planning..i guess.

 

At least in the west we have competent planning councils and building approvals system, and most country would never allow this sort of over-saturation thing to happen as they know its a train-wreck waiting to happen.

Tv  has been predicting the collapse of the condo market the collapse of the baht and tourism for 20 Years now ..hasn't happened!!!

Boy did you guys get that wrong. But keep posting and when a correction happens maybe after another 20 years of crash postings you can all turn around and say "I told you so" ????

[toenail]

Did you see my post No15 about a little old thai lady in my block that owns condos and leave them empty.
There are lots of reasons condos can be empty/unoccupied. They can be someones holiday house, company owned for visiting executives etc.
 
Thai people have different ideas about investments, they are happy to hold Gold which gives no return while you hold it, they look at property the same way, they buy property just to hold it, empty, with no return.
Add to that the whole Thai superstition and not buying second hand because of ghosts of previous occupants etc. It a very real thing, they will only buy new or never occupied properties, an empty property is worth more to them than the rent they may get. The spirit houses in every front yard and condo block are not there for fun.
 
I have a friend in Pattaya who is on the committee of a huge condo block (1500 units), the block is 20 years old and there are condos in this block that are owned but have never been occupied for 20 years, Thai people own 5 in a row. The condo office went through a process of chasing these people up, for fees ,maintenance issues or to see if they are still alive, want to rent/sell. They would track these people down, it would be a well off Thai person/family happy to leave them un-occupied. Just a passive investment.
 
 

When I first arrived in Pattaya-Naklua area 15?years ago and rented my first condo along Wongamat Beach, ( before 6-7 more towers were built) I was surprised how there were only two other full time tenants on my floor- at night it was a bit spooky with the silence in the hallway. Every floor was the same and when you looked at other condos, hardly a light would be shining from the apartment windows. I was told later that BKK Thais with cash to spend would buy these as an investment instead of putting their money into a savings account. What puzzled me that all of these condos had deprecated in value so it didn’t make sense to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[tingtongtourist]

2 hours ago, madmen said:

Tv  has been predicting the collapse of the condo market the collapse of the baht and tourism for 20 Years now ..hasn't happened!!!

Boy did you guys get that wrong. But keep posting and when a correction happens maybe after another 20 years of crash postings you can all turn around and say "I told you so" ????

haha

ok but never been this sort of widespread expansion of MRT and BTS lines before around BKK

and to building another mass of unneeded condos all around every station.

 

and on top of that theres all the shopping centres, and those "park" style shopping centres going up on everywhere and none of them have customers!!

 

you tell me, how can it go on? lol

 

investors and banks want their money back you know!

 

i tell you, it will be the straw that break the camels back!!

[madmen]

14 minutes ago, tingtongtourist said:

haha

ok but never been this sort of widespread expansion of MRT and BTS lines before around BKK

and to building another mass of unneeded condos all around every station.

 

and on top of that theres all the shopping centres, and those "park" style shopping centres going up on everywhere and none of them have customers!!

 

you tell me, how can it go on? lol

 

investors and banks want their money back you know!

 

i tell you, it will be the straw that break the camels back!!

There are 1.386 billion people in China. Only need a small % to continue snapping up Condos in BKK like they are now. 15 years from now they would have pushed the price up to Hong Kong levels. In fact The Q condo at Nana Bts is already at Hong Kong levels..(1 to 5 mill usa dollars) It can go on indefinitely is your answer. !!!

 

Dont know where you live but T21 Asoke is packed wall to wall every day with Chinese and japs. Same with Siam Paragon

[utalkin2me]

Can't you just use an agency and they will find a renter for you?

[geoffbezoz]

2 minutes ago, madmen said:

There are 1.386 billion people in China. Only need a small % to continue snapping up Condos in BKK like they are now. 15 years from now they would have pushed the price up to Hong Kong levels. It can go on indefinitely is your answer. !!!

 

Dont know where you live but T21 Asoke is packed wall to wall every day with Chinese and japs. Same with Siam Paragon

Well, I can only feel sorry for you if you spend 7 days a week continuously in Siam Paragon or T21 that would enable you to make an informed comment on the foot fall in those 2 malls.  Of course if you do not spend 7 days a week in those 2 malls then readers will consider your comments accordingly.   Happy shopping.  ????

[madmen]

1 minute ago, geoffbezoz said:

Well, I can only feel sorry for you if you spend 7 days a week continuously in Siam Paragon or T21 that would enable you to make an informed comment on the foot fall in those 2 malls.  Of course if you do not spend 7 days a week in those 2 malls then readers will consider your comments accordingly.   Happy shopping.  ????

No need to be a smarty pants

I dine in their food courts . Im a 5 minute walk from T21

So yes my feedback is reliable

[utalkin2me]

6 hours ago, 5633572526 said:

I have been living in Asok area for 5 years now. Every year I have been here rent prices seem to have dropped. I base this on my experience here of getting a larger condo in the same area for the same cost. I move every year because of this and my innate boredom of being in the same place for more than 1 year. I started in a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom 35 square meter unit and now I am in a 100 square meter 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms unit. 

My condo building has many empty units which is great because the pool and the gym rarely have more than 1 or 2 people in them.

the condo building across sukhumvit from mine is barely 3 years old and has so many empty units the owners have embraced air bnb to provide income. I know this because when my friends visit this is where they stay and I kind of understand This because after 3 years half of the units in that building are still listed for sale or rent.

IT Is interesting because my current building has filled up in that time frame. 5 years ago half empty now filled to the brim. 

 

Idk what to make of it all but i believe the cheaper to rent condos are a better investment, but i will also agree with you that rent prices seem stagnant. 

 

Way too much doom and gloom on here considering what is actually happening in the market in my estimation. 

[geoffbezoz]

1 minute ago, madmen said:

No need to be a smarty pants

I dine in their food courts . Im a 5 minute walk from T21

So yes my feedback is reliable

Ah I see.  The food courts,  frequented mostly by Thais,  are a prime example of the rental market collapse in Bangkok, the rental market for high end mainly being foreigners ?   LOL. 

 

 By the way you stated 'every day" so guess you eat in Siam Paragon as well as T21 every day in the food court.  A hungry chappy indeed.  ????   And by the way, nothing to do with being a smarty pants just questioning the veracity of your statements which appear to be lacking any sound data on the rental market collapse.

[madmen]

17 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

Ah I see.  The food courts,  frequented mostly by Thais,  are a prime example of the rental market collapse in Bangkok, the rental market for high end mainly being foreigners ?   LOL. 

 

 By the way you stated 'every day" so guess you eat in Siam Paragon as well as T21 every day in the food court.  A hungry chappy indeed.  ????   And by the way, nothing to do with being a smarty pants just questioning the veracity of your statements which appear to be lacking any sound data on the rental market collapse.

OP based his 'sound  data" on his ONE EMPTY condo. And your supporting that theory ..1 condo = BKK rental collapse . Are you not embarrassed?

You cant make this stuff up ????????????

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Not Emporium area, but in my area (Nana) rental prices have gone down drastically from a couple of years ago, and those units that don't lower their price simply remain vacant. It's just market forces:

1. Too many condos built in the area too fast, and they keep building more.

2. General economic slowdown, so people aren't willing to spend as much as they used to.

3. Less foreigners in general due to visa issues, political instability, and crackdowns on nightlife and street vendors.

4. Airbnb becoming "officially" illegal and most condos enforcing it. Many of the units in central Bangkok had people renting them and putting them up on Airbnb - so essentially tourists were pumping up the price of rentals - this doesn't happen so much anymore so all those units got dumped on the market. Funny enough owners were the ones who objected to Airbnb the most (renters don't care much), but it's owners who get hurt when rental prices go down.

[madmen]

20 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Not Emporium area, but in my area (Nana) rental prices have gone down drastically from a couple of years ago, and those units that don't lower their price simply remain vacant. It's just market forces:

1. Too many condos built in the area too fast, and they keep building more.

2. General economic slowdown, so people aren't willing to spend as much as they used to.

3. Less foreigners in general due to visa issues, political instability, and crackdowns on nightlife and street vendors.

4. Airbnb becoming "officially" illegal and most condos enforcing it. Many of the units in central Bangkok had people renting them and putting them up on Airbnb - so essentially tourists were pumping up the price of rentals - this doesn't happen so much anymore so all those units got dumped on the market. Funny enough owners were the ones who objected to Airbnb the most (renters don't care much), but it's owners who get hurt when rental prices go down.

Firstly Air BNb is not illegal so your due diligence is woeful, get your facts straight if you want credibility

The studios in my Asoke building have gone from 20k to 25k /month in the last 3 years. I also rent my place 78sqm for 45k/month on air bnb when I travel to Europe every year for 3 months. it NEVER fails to get a 2 or 3 month rental . Ive had many request for 6 months to 12 rental on Air BNB but not interested

[AtoZ]

5 hours ago, toenail said:

When I first arrived in Pattaya-Naklua area 15?years ago and rented my first condo along Wongamat Beach, ( before 6-7 more towers were built) I was surprised how there were only two other full time tenants on my floor- at night it was a bit spooky with the silence in the hallway. Every floor was the same and when you looked at other condos, hardly a light would be shining from the apartment windows. I was told later that BKK Thais with cash to spend would buy these as an investment instead of putting their money into a savings account. What puzzled me that all of these condos had deprecated in value so it didn’t make sense to me.

Because they can't count to 10 without calculator and logic is non existent.

 

My gf's friends are all university educated with decent jobs. We once had discussion of why I waste so much money on rent and don't buy.

 

I opened excel and made simple table with management expenses, mortgage cost (or lost opportunity cost), etc

 

In the end if I bought the condo I would be paying about 37,000 THB a month for 20 years, instead of renting for 24,000 THB.

 

You know what they answered? "That makes sense, BUT if you plan on living in Thailand you should buy anyway"

 

Now approx 3 years later the rents went down to 20,000 THB for the same unit in the building. Probably because there were built at least 3000 more new units within 400 metres radius.

 

[Pravda]

4 hours ago, madmen said:

There are 1.386 billion people in China. Only need a small % to continue snapping up Condos in BKK like they are now. 15 years from now they would have pushed the price up to Hong Kong levels. In fact The Q condo at Nana Bts is already at Hong Kong levels..(1 to 5 mill usa dollars) It can go on indefinitely is your answer. !!!

 

Dont know where you live but T21 Asoke is packed wall to wall every day with Chinese and japs. Same with Siam Paragon

 

I own a condo in one of the Top 10 cities on the planet.

 

Yes, Chinese are buying in Bangkok, but these are poor Chinese "investors", nothing like in UK, US, Australia or Canada where there are actually numerous advantages for Chinese investors to actually be buying, such as.....

 

1. Land ownership

2. Permanent residency and citizenship

3. Access to great healthcare in which 3 out of 4 countries mentioned above is absolutely free

4. Access to some of the best schools on the planet

5. Clean air

6. Quality construction - security and pride of ownership.

 

 

Thailand can't even dream to compete with any of that. 

 

I don't think there will be a crash in Thailand or Bangkok unless there is a major worldwide recession, but boy oh boy do you love to dream. You must be really invested here and it's hitting a nerve a bit, eh?

 

[utalkin2me]

21 hours ago, AtoZ said:

Because they can't count to 10 without calculator and logic is non existent.

 

My gf's friends are all university educated with decent jobs. We once had discussion of why I waste so much money on rent and don't buy.

 

I opened excel and made simple table with management expenses, mortgage cost (or lost opportunity cost), etc

 

In the end if I bought the condo I would be paying about 37,000 THB a month for 20 years, instead of renting for 24,000 THB.

 

You know what they answered? "That makes sense, BUT if you plan on living in Thailand you should buy anyway"

 

Now approx 3 years later the rents went down to 20,000 THB for the same unit in the building. Probably because there were built at least 3000 more new units within 400 metres radius.

 

Even if your math is correct, it seems the statement they should have made was "but you still have a condo after the 20 years". Now, let's just imagine buying a condo at say onnut 20 years ago and what the rates would be now (if they even had one 20 years ago not sure, but see the point?). 

 

I do not even argue that buying condos is a relatively poor investment compared to other sectors. But when you are living in one or living in it part time and renting, I think it is a different scenario. 

 

Last thing I will say is those figures are pretty drastic. I would agree rent prices can stagnate but dropping like you have posted is way out of the ordinary in my experience. 

[AtoZ]

2 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Even if your math is correct, it seems the statement they should have made was "but you still have a condo after the 20 years". Now, let's just imagine buying a condo at say onnut 20 years ago and what the rates would be now (if they even had one 20 years ago not sure, but see the point?).

Would you want to live in 20 years old condo here? I wouldn't

 

100 years old houses in Europe looks like palaces, here most condos look like trash after 10 years

 

EDIT: "100 years old houses in Europe looks like palaces" I left over the important word EUROPE ????

[utalkin2me]

2 minutes ago, AtoZ said:

Would you want to live in 20 years old condo here? I wouldn't

 

100 years old houses looks like palaces, here most condos look like trash after 10 years

Even if i didn't, a thai would assuming i bought with location in mind.