13 minutes ago, mercman24 said:

nice try my friend, but he has one thing you have not got, i will give you a clue, it sounds like *BANKS* but its got TRACKS.  ?????.

Tanks on trains?

2 hours ago, Thailand said:

And yet another coup within 18 months.

 

Yes,seems pretty likely.

 

But this time not to overthrow a government but to prop it up.

 

Last time,  Suthep was working with the army to destroy democracy.

 

This time the army will find it difficult to find an attractive excuse.

 

In the end it will be a coup against the pro democracy faction only , so as to : 

 

' allow the junta coalition to govern without interference from trouble making politicians who are acting from selfish motives.'

 

Won't fool anyone so the question arises will the people tolerate it ?

 

IMO , with soldiers again on the streets and military checkpoints everywhere plus the usual urban 

loyalist ' patriotic rabble ' sticking flowers on tanks ...... 

 

the social networks will be ablaze with righteous indignation , sandwiches will get eaten and then life will go on.

 

 

Did he forget that the army put him at this place?

Yes,bit short Id say,the knobhead has had his day. Washington Post did a good story post election.  The junta/BoT have had a field day with the baht,producing bonds galore,good interest too,but banks now curtailing lending on cars and other loans ,so the bonds do not get serviced Exports,cars ,rice ,rubber..forget it

Edited June 17, 20197 yr by oxysong

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Wan Noor predicts demise of Prayut regime in about a year

Then it's back to 'change must come though the barrel of a gun v.20?'  ????

Please use discretion in your references to the government. Phrases which can be considered as anti-coup will be removed. Referring to Thailand or the government as a dictatorship, military dictatorship or other such terms will be removed:

 

 

Those who came in late to "helped" cha cha retain power will end up benefiting heavily for their "loyalty" should the government last a year.  If they have a shred of decency, crystal balls will give the newly elected junta government around a year, an expensive for Thailand. 

2 hours ago, neeray said:

Watch !

(And this time, I am not referring to Prawit "watch")

You do have a point. Taking Hong Kong as an example, the protesters were mostly young adults and students even school kids. Mirrored that to Thailand and we see a resurgence of young activists, students and Mattayom kids being more demonstrative and making their political posturing. The emergence of a new young party lead by a charismatic leader has inspired the younger demography. Some 700,000 to 800,000 new young voters are eligible to vote every year and will be a force if the government don't live up to their expectation. Time have change and those Bangkok whistle blowers dinosaurs will probably fade and re-place by these younger generations.   

7 hours ago, webfact said:

WAN MUHAMMAD Noor Matha, a former House speaker who now leads an opposition party, sees a gloomy outlook for the new government to be headed by General Prayut Chan-o-cha.
 

He believes the government will be short-lived.

But Uncle "Who-must-not-to-be-named" can push the RESET "C" button any time again, again and again....

Questioning from the opposition members at every meeting, in-house squabbling from coalition members & no real power to make orders once government starts Prayut is going to have a rocky ride.

Throw in some public disquiet from trade and commerce you might see a quick turn-over of the PM.

 

 

This guy just got his 15 minutes. Next!

 

The violent incident in Bangkok with the motorbike drivers with weapons and guns is a perfect representation of Thailand. 

 

Taxi drivers might grab stick or a gun, the average man a machete, and the elite use troops and tanks. Violence or the threat of violence is a legitimate solution for primitive creatures.

5 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

He has to give it up as he is now a civilian. But he has other ways to hit out. 

 

4 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

He has not quite started work under the new rules in the new house so he still flexes the 44 power until then.

It's not the installation of the new House that triggers the dissolution of the NCPO and its Article 44 power.

It's supposedly when the "new" government has been "established." The "new" government refers I believe to the entire Executive Branch that is composed of the PM and his new (33-member?) Cabinet.

While Prayut has been endorsed as the new PM, he has delayed endorsement of his official Cabinet in part because of disputes over ministry assignments to various pro-military political parties. Thus, the new government has not been installed. Recent news articles in Thai Visa indicate that the NCPO is still active with Prayut still as NCPO Chief.

I do hope Wan Noor is correct and we can have new and fair elections. Tip: for fair elections the EC needs to be elected, not appointed.

When will people realise that (in a similar way to many other countries in the region) the elections were just for appearances? Thailand dabbled in western style 'democracy', and it didn't work. Why was that? It's because in fact democracies are in fact very fragile and (crucially) they need to be regarded as legitimate by all who take part. Where the sides are too different, poles apart like they are in Thailand, democracy isn't feasible and a more authoritarian approach is necessary to keep the peace. This is what we see in most other countries in the region that call themselves democracies, but aren't really, and nevertheless are successful. 

 

Military rule is here to stay. For the past 30 years, I've been hearing (and for a while making) dire predictions that the wheels will come off and Thailand will collapse in a heap. It never happens.

 

Edited June 17, 20197 yr by dbrenn

12 hours ago, colinneil said:

This so-called government will not last long, there is another bunch of generals sitting there just itching to get their snouts in the trough.????️‍♀️

Those snouts must be lead to the abattoir before Thailand can have democracy. 

Things will keep on marching on until the little people attack the big people, by that time all out civil war will have happened, then all bets are off. I don't see it happening anytime soon, but when it does, you don't want to be here to see it happen.

That's a year too long. I wish Thais would take example of what's happening in Hong Kong now.

Some off topic trolling posts and replies have been removed. 

Lots of talk and speculation, on here and elsewhere about this government lasting, and whether it will fall or be replaced through parliamentary action or by coup d'etat.

 

The Military is far from homogenous, and the factional rivalry at the top is bitter and long-lasting.  The Prayut/Prawit axis represents the culmination of a fairly long period of dominance by one faction, but their rivals - some might say, bitter enemies - are gaining influence. Any parliamentary actions likely to remove this government will surely be forestalled by a coup. Any coup which replaces this government will reflect that faction fight. There will be snot and blood all over the corridors of power, and it will probably spill over to outside those corridors.  That is where the fighting, bloodshed and real power struggle will be. It will probably be geographically quite restricted - everything in this country revolves around Bangkok, but I am sure that it is coming, and I am sure that it will be messy. The Thai people, I think, know this as well, and are determined not to get involved.

Edited June 17, 20197 yr by JAG

18 hours ago, webfact said:

He said yesterday the opposition, as part of its mission to keep the government from duping the public, would set up a working group to hear citizens’ complaints and suggestions. 

They are going to be very busy!

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Without the powers he enjoyed as head of the National Council for Peace and Order, Prayut cannot keep coalition partners and MPs completely under his control when the new government takes over, Wan Noor said.

So we can look forward to regular temper tantrums and threats...

8 minutes ago, chama said:

So we can look forward to regular temper tantrums and threats...

S44 to the rescue! 

1 hour ago, JAG said:

Lots of talk and speculation, on here and elsewhere about this government lasting, and whether it will fall or be replaced through parliamentary action or by coup d'etat.

 

The Military is far from homogenous, and the factional rivalry at the top is bitter and long-lasting.  The Prayut/Prawit axis represents the culmination of a fairly long period of dominance by one faction, but their rivals - some might say, bitter enemies - are gaining influence. Any parliamentary actions likely to remove this government will surely be forestalled by a coup. Any coup which replaces this government will reflect that faction fight. There will be snot and blood all over the corridors of power, and it will probably spill over to outside those corridors.  That is where the fighting, bloodshed and real power struggle will be. It will probably be geographically quite restricted - everything in this country revolves around Bangkok, but I am sure that it is coming, and I am sure that it will be messy. The Thai people, I think, know this as well, and are determined not to get involved.

Interesting view.

 

My take is the people are just simply too chickenshit to fight back. Once they do, Hong Kong style, and force the military into the barracks and under the command of the people, Thailand may have some hope. But being chickenshit that just ain't going to happen and the cycle repeats itself.

54 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Interesting view.

 

My take is the people are just simply too chickenshit to fight back. Once they do, Hong Kong style, and force the military into the barracks and under the command of the people, Thailand may have some hope. But being chickenshit that just ain't going to happen and the cycle repeats itself.

We'll have to see how Hong Kong plays out. Tiananmen Square reminds us that the military may not stay in their barracks for long.

 

China will put up with the protests for a while, but it knows that nobody will take it on, however brutally it may choose to squash dissent. 

Edited June 17, 20197 yr by dbrenn

2 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

We'll have to see how Hong Kong plays out. Tiananmen Square reminds us that the military may not stay in their barracks for long.

This time the protesters need to bring "sticky bombs"

Its time for another coup based on history. The coup, now PM will revert back to military rule? 

The trouble is whether he will manufacture another coup to stay in power once he loses confidence by minority parties currently supporting him.

That should be very interesting !
To give him a year, I think, is pretty optimistic. Too many in the opposition vying to get rid of him, and I really cannot see him being able to sensibly ward them all off.

16 hours ago, dbrenn said:

When will people realise that (in a similar way to many other countries in the region) the elections were just for appearances? Thailand dabbled in western style 'democracy', and it didn't work. Why was that? ....

 

Military rule is here to stay. For the past 30 years, I've been hearing (and for a while making) dire predictions that the wheels will come off and Thailand will collapse in a heap. It never happens.

 

Just quoting you post parts of what I am replying to......

 

I believe the democracy did not work because of the military & the police of Thailand believe they are separate in some way.

They forget they are jockeys instead they believe they own the horse

 

Truth is even in this most recent coup if the military had done their sworn duty & protected the Thai government  when govt house was being overrun by mobs

or voting was being disrupted by mob both the military & the police shirked their sworn duty instead hoping for anarchy so they could then use the excuse of needing to take over....again

 

Truth is after order was restored these same group leaders should have been hung or at least jailed for treason against their elected government/country because their standing down during while their country was in a state of emergency amounts to just that

 

 

As for your second part while that may be true for now that does not make it right. That the wheels dont come off is due to ignorance & the backbone people/workers/farmers of Thailand not knowing they have a choice. But even now as the kids are educated & thru the internet see what the world really is they will eventually turn on this type of nonsense no matter how well the treasonous try to train/brainwash them.

 

 

On 6/17/2019 at 4:52 AM, bluesofa said:

Hmm, I can't see how this government being short-lived could be described as 'gloomy'.

you can do a lot of damage in a year

I predict that anyone who predicts the demise of Prayuth will meet their demise first.