Exchange Rate !!!!

[MartinKal]

22 hours ago, steven100 said:

agree …. Australia is technically in a recession and the UK is looking just as sad.

The problem is that these governments never look outside the box when it comes to economic stimulus.

The need to change/challenge the methodology of boosting the economy. But sadly they don't have the balls.

If it was me in charge, I would go out and borrow as much as possible at 0.01% … 7,8 or 9 hundred billion dollars …  then start development, new roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, high speed rail, agriculture, forestry, factories for the unskilled, one million low cost houses for the poor, and so on ….

This way, you kick the economy in the guts, you create 1 million jobs that in turn feed families and they buy cars, groceries etc ...

Ans so what ...in ten , twenty years you still owe 6 billion or whatever, at least the country was saved from poverty, recession or depression.   imo.o 

It's a good idea. The people's QE. Debt is so cheap, can borrow billions upon billions and pay the same as small borrowings when interest rates were higher.

 

But here's the thing: you got to pay it back. Very fast growth can make lots of money and can pay back. Lots of inflation can make the debt shrink in new hyper values. Do you think it will work?

 

Another way Trump is maybe planning : kill the people you owe money to. Ie WAR.

 

And here's another problem. When investors finally lose confidence in your currency, you will have to put up interest rates are. And if interest rates go up, that cheap debt will suddenly become very expensive and it will totally break you. That's what happened here in the Tom Yum goong crisis back in 97.

[jimn]

22 hours ago, sanemax said:

The Pound remained quite stable in the days after Brexit and only began to lose once it became apparent that the Uk Gov had no idea how to proceed and didnt know what to do 

Wrong the pound fell 4 baht the day after the vote and a further 2 baht the following week. Its been on a downward trend ever since because we stupidly voted to leave

[jimn]

4 hours ago, sanemax said:

I have tried to explain about five times already .

From the following Monday after Brexit , the Pound remained stable for the rest of the year , six months .

The Pound began its decline when it became clear that the UK wouldnt be leaving the EU any time soon .

All the losses from the Brexit vote were realised in the few days after the vote 

I would quit whilst you are losing the arguement Sanemax. Your comments are making no sense now.

[nickmondo]

so you really reckon rents, electric, water, food in local restaurants, petrol, are the same as in the UK?

really?

dont know what part of Thailand you are in mate, but I suspect its a Thailand on another planet.

 

[Matzzon]

23 hours ago, AdamJGill89 said:

What is happening with the GBP to the Baht ?? Its more expensive now in Thailand than it is back in the UK ! Is this all happening with the thai baht getting stronger and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit ??

Good guess! You are right on the track.

[Miami007]

22 hours ago, sanemax said:

Yes, the Pound fell when the UK didnt leave the E.U three years ago .

The financial markets hate uncertainty  and the UK not leaving the EU on the day after the Brexit vote has caused the Pound to fall 

The UK could not have left the day after the vote. That was not even a remote possibility.. 

 

[Jonnapat]

22 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

Not disagreeing here but a lot of currency dropped against the THB around that time, i.e. Australia dropped from 30+ to 25. So was Brexit the reason? Interesting topic.

The week before the Brexit referendum the pound was worth 54.5 baht, now itis around 37/38.

Of course Brexit is the problem and will continue to be so particularly as no one seems to have any idea of what they're doing or likely to be doing in the coming months,  so expect further depreciation. 

[Bigz]

23 hours ago, sanemax said:

Yes, the Pound fell when the UK didnt leave the E.U three years ago .

The financial markets hate uncertainty  and the UK not leaving the EU on the day after the Brexit vote has caused the Pound to fall 

No. The pound fell because the UK is leaving the EU. The uncertainty makes it worse but even if the UK leaves tomorrow the pound will not recover to the previous levels within the next decade. The only chance for full quick recovery is a second referendum/cancellation of Brexit. I guess this is not what the typical die hard British brexiteer pensioners who reside in Thailand want to hear and believe but they better get used to it. 

[CG1 Blue]

The continued efforts of the remain establishment to frustrate the Brexit process is causing much more damage to the GBP rate than necessary. Currency markets react to uncertainty. The sooner the UK leaves the EU and starts to build from there, the sooner the currency will stabilise. 

 

I would be a big buyer of GBP in the days leading up to a no deal Brexit. The currency markets will crush the pound over those few days making GBP very cheap. Then after we have left and the armageddon promised by project fear doesn't materialise, GBP will bounce back with a vengeance. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by CG1 Blue

[stropper]

22 hours ago, steven100 said:

yes … totally agree, these guys see the AUD & GBP fall 10-20% and all of a sudden it's posts about going back home.

Well sorry but a house only costs 500k-1 mil to build in Thailand, in Australia and I expect the UK you are lucky to get a garden shed for that,  a taxi can take you 20kms for $10.... food at the markets is still way cheaper than Australia. Oh and the government will tax you as much as they can, and you will need  a licence to fart … well in Auss you just about do.

No thank's …. they can have both those miserable shitholes... lol 

 

 

absolutely spot on, and dont talk about a boom  boom in aus, thats an arm or a leg  and a house there now!

[Jaxxper]

Forgetting all the BS about Brexit, on a balanced view it is still cheaper in Thailand than the UK in my opinion. Yes some items are much more expensive but housing and utilities are a fraction of the costs in the UK.

[chrissables]

22 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Maybe read a bit and you will understand:

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30373312

 

The IMF are mostly wrong in their predictions.

[FritsSikkink]

7 minutes ago, chrissables said:

The IMF are mostly wrong in their predictions.

It explains why the THB is high now. what part don't you understand in the article.

[Naam]

5 hours ago, sanemax said:

10 hours ago, Naam said:

give us a break man, show some character and stop presenting ridiculous arguments. we all make mistakes. there's nothing wrong to admit when it happened.

Are you suggesting that the Pound fell by 25 % on the few days after the Brexit vote ?

what is it that you ingest and how do you do it? smoke? oral? intravenous? subcutane? intramuscular? inhale?

 

and is it legal?

[fishtank]

1 hour ago, jimn said:

Wrong the pound fell 4 baht the day after the vote and a further 2 baht the following week. Its been on a downward trend ever since because we stupidly voted to leave

Yes. It is now beyond any doubt that the idiotic vote 3 years ago was a huge mistake.

Initiated by Cameron to unite the Tory party.

That worked well didn't it?

[Naam]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

The continued efforts of the remain establishment to frustrate the Brexit process is causing much more damage to the GBP rate than necessary. Currency markets react to uncertainty. The sooner the UK leaves the EU and starts to build from there, the sooner the currency will stabilise.

likely.

Quote

I would be a big buyer of GBP in the days leading up to a no deal Brexit. The currency markets will crush the pound over those few days making GBP very cheap. Then after we have left and the armageddon promised by project fear doesn't materialise, GBP will bounce back with a vengeance. 

highy unlikely.

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, Bigz said:

No. The pound fell because the UK is leaving the EU. The uncertainty makes it worse but even if the UK leaves tomorrow the pound will not recover to the previous levels within the next decade. The only chance for full quick recovery is a second referendum/cancellation of Brexit. I guess this is not what the typical die hard British brexiteer pensioners who reside in Thailand want to hear and believe but they better get used to it. 

Why is the Euro falling against the Baht, and the US Dollar?

Edited July 22, 2019 by ukrules

[marcusarelus]

5 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Why is the Euro falling against the Baht, and the US Dollar?

Baht was about 40,000 per Gold oz in 2014 and was the same a few months ago.  

[SteveK]

As mentioned before, I'm waiting to transfer money from a house sale from the UK to Thailand, which is highly, highly unfortunate for me.

 

So instead of this:

 

 

I am now looking at this:

 

[Mark1066]

6 hours ago, sanemax said:

I have tried to explain about five times already .

From the following Monday after Brexit , the Pound remained stable for the rest of the year , six months .

The Pound began its decline when it became clear that the UK wouldnt be leaving the EU any time soon .

All the losses from the Brexit vote were realised in the few days after the vote 

No it did not remain stable after the following Monday, it dropped a further 900 pips in the following couple of weeks...Please explain how you view that as stable.

 

Also, if you want to talk about the six months after the vote, no it didn't remain stable then either. On Monday 27th of June it opened at 1.3424 and by 11th October it was 1.2088, a further 10% fall. Is that what you call a stable exchange rate?

Edited July 22, 2019 by Mark1066

[Mark1066]

19 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Why is the Euro falling against the Baht, and the US Dollar?

Because of doveish comments from the ECB, i.e. comments suggesting that further 'monetary easing' measures are likely in the near future.

[Mark1066]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

The continued efforts of the remain establishment to frustrate the Brexit process is causing much more damage to the GBP rate than necessary. Currency markets react to uncertainty. The sooner the UK leaves the EU and starts to build from there, the sooner the currency will stabilise. 

 

I would be a big buyer of GBP in the days leading up to a no deal Brexit. The currency markets will crush the pound over those few days making GBP very cheap. Then after we have left and the armageddon promised by project fear doesn't materialise, GBP will bounce back with a vengeance. 

No, if you follow the price action closely, you will observe that any news suggesting a deal is becoming more likely leads to a rally in the pound and any news that suggests a greater likelihood of the UK leaving without a deal leads to a fall in the value of the pound. What you are seeing is the market pricing in the changing odds (the perceived odds) of the UK leaving without a deal, not the market reacting to uncertainty. It's a nice fairy tale to tell yourself if you think leaving the EU with no deal is a good idea but it's patently false.

[Enoon]

20 minutes ago, Mark1066 said:

No, if you follow the price action closely, you will observe that any news suggesting a deal is becoming more likely leads to a rally in the pound and any news that suggests a greater likelihood of the UK leaving without a deal leads to a fall in the value of the pound. What you are seeing is the market pricing in the changing odds (the perceived odds) of the UK leaving without a deal, not the market reacting to uncertainty. It's a nice fairy tale to tell yourself if you think leaving the EU with no deal is a good idea but it's patently false.

 

I wouldn't bother trying to convince the Brexiteers if I were you.

 

They are not concerned with the historical record or data.

 

They have the "Great Mission" of a Jihadist.

 

Many non-UK foreigners, in Thailand, have described to me the strange and scary look they see in the eyes of the UK expat/Brexiteer as they launch into their rant

 

The lights flash and flicker wildly.....but nobody is at home.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Enoon

[Mark1066]

17 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

I wouldn't bother trying to convince the Brexiteers if I were you.

 

They are not concerned with the historical record or data.

 

They have the "Great Mission" of a Jihadist.

 

Many non-UK foreigners, in Thailand, have described to me the strange and scary look they see in the eyes of the UK expat/Brexiteer as they launch into their rant

 

The lights flash and flicker wildly.....but nobody is at home.

 

 

 

 

Like turkeys voting for Christmas. The great disenfranchised, egged on by a seedy little man with all the charisma and morals of a second hand car salesman.

[JamJar]

12 hours ago, Naam said:

give us a break man, show some character and stop presenting ridiculous arguments. we all make mistakes. there's nothing wrong to admit when it happened.

 

Be serious. ???? How often does that happen on this forum? 

Impossible to have any kind of discussion when no one ever concedes that they could be wrong.

 

 

[Bigz]

On 7/21/2019 at 5:49 PM, bkk6060 said:

False.

Take a look at AUD, USD, etc.

They have all fallen and have nothing to do with Brexit.

Nowhere near that much as the pound. Pound has fallen nearly 25% since brexit euro lost around 10%....

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, Mark1066 said:

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The continued efforts of the remain establishment to frustrate the Brexit process is causing much more damage to the GBP rate than necessary. Currency markets react to uncertainty. The sooner the UK leaves the EU and starts to build from there, the sooner the currency will stabilise. 

 

I would be a big buyer of GBP in the days leading up to a no deal Brexit. The currency markets will crush the pound over those few days making GBP very cheap. Then after we have left and the armageddon promised by project fear doesn't materialise, GBP will bounce back with a vengeance. 

No, if you follow the price action closely, you will observe that any news suggesting a deal is becoming more likely leads to a rally in the pound and any news that suggests a greater likelihood of the UK leaving without a deal leads to a fall in the value of the pound. What you are seeing is the market pricing in the changing odds (the perceived odds) of the UK leaving without a deal, not the market reacting to uncertainty. It's a nice fairy tale to tell yourself if you think leaving the EU with no deal is a good idea but it's patently false.

You are simply confirming what I said. Deal = more certainty, and no deal = uncertainty (because we only have the EU supporting doom mongers' predictions to go by).

Once (if) we leave without a deal and it is not the catastrophe they are painting, the pound will recover. 

That recovery could have started on March 29th, but it is being prolonged by the remain establishment. 

[hugocnx]

On 7/21/2019 at 5:42 PM, ianezy0 said:

Not disagreeing here but a lot of currency dropped against the THB around that time, i.e. Australia dropped from 30+ to 25. So was Brexit the reason? Interesting topic.

You are quite right. Compare the currencies Euro and Pound for a couple of years and you will see the same trend. 

[chrissables]

4 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

It explains why the THB is high now. what part don't you understand in the article.

They are very bad at predictions, it's a fact

[stuandjulie]

On 7/21/2019 at 11:35 AM, steven100 said:

yes … totally agree, these guys see the AUD & GBP fall 10-20% and all of a sudden it's posts about going back home.

Well sorry but a house only costs 500k-1 mil to build in Thailand, in Australia and I expect the UK you are lucky to get a garden shed for that,  a taxi can take you 20kms for $10.... food at the markets is still way cheaper than Australia. Oh and the government will tax you as much as they can, and you will need  a licence to fart … well in Auss you just about do.

No thank's …. they can have both those miserable shitholes... lol 

 

 

\if you want to live in the sticks it might, try Phuket lol.