Thai central bank surprisingly cuts key rate, worried by baht strength

[Miami007]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Indeed... 

 

 

Well - but you also should consider that there was a prolonged period of gold weakness after 1980.  Just looking at 3 arbitrary data points does not show the correct picture.  Also, are these values inflation adjusted?  $35 in 1971 is more than $217 now after inflation (just a simple Google search).

 

While gold (or exposure to it) has its value in a diversified portfolio as a hedge, it probably is not the best idea to go "all-in" with 100% of your assets.  and carrying gold coins or bar is just a literal drag due to the weight and the lack of easy transfer options; plus it is fairly volatile as well as the charts show.  Let's face it, our modern economy depends heavily on a payment form that is easy (electronic payments in a store and transfers for large transactions), easy to carry (bank-notes) for small purchases and fairly stable (most cryptos are just too volatile for large transactions).  

 

Year-end Price 1980 in USD 598.50 - which fell 50% to $272. 50 at the end of 2000.

It took until 2006 for gold to climb back to 1980 levels; for many people 26 years is a long time to wait

Gold reached its peak in 2012 at $1664 - by 2015 it had fallen 36% to $1060.  In 2018, it was still down 23%.  Now at $1499 and still about 10% below its peak - much of that appreciation in the last year likely coming from a flight to safety due to trade wars, stock volatility etc.  

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart 

 

On another note - there was a big increase in gold prices in 2007; it seems that institutional investors realized much earlier than the general public what was about to happen in September 2008.

 

 

 

 

[ThePioneer]

7 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

Gold reached its peak in 2012 at $1664

Gold reached it's peak in August 2011 at 1917$

 

https://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/markets/gold_prices/index.htm

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Gold prices have been on a tear lately, topping a fresh record high above $1,900 an ounce early Tuesday-- just two weeks after rising above $1,800.

While experts aren't too worried about each new milestones, they are starting to freak out about the rapid speed at which prices are hitting them. Gold started the year just above $1,400 an ounce.

Gold prices first crossed the $1,900 mark in after-hours electronic trading Monday. Early Tuesday, prices hit an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce, before pulling back to about $1,880.

[Caine]

14 hours ago, Tayaout said:

In the land of the ladyboys, I don't think immigration care about your sexual orientation. 

Yes but they’re Thai so they can’t kick them out.

[Time to grow]

A great read if your interested in where the world economy is likely going:

 

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/deeply-negative-nominal-rates-are-on-their-way?gmrefcode=gata

 

Alasdair Macleod writes:

 

"Given the rapidity with which the global economy is now declining, we will be lucky if a credit crisis leading to deeply negative nominal rates doesn’t happen later this year. The pace at which depositors in the banks then become aware of what is happening to their fiat currency will determine the speed and extent of the currency collapse."

[IAMHERE]

18 hours ago, Berkshire said:

It makes no sense....if one understands anything about international finance and basic economics. 

Nope, that BM quit a long time ago. ????

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, Miami007 said:

Well - but you also should consider that there was a prolonged period of gold weakness after 1980.  Just looking at 3 arbitrary data points does not show the correct picture.  Also, are these values inflation adjusted?  $35 in 1971 is more than $217 now after inflation (just a simple Google search).

 

While gold (or exposure to it) has its value in a diversified portfolio as a hedge, it probably is not the best idea to go "all-in" with 100% of your assets.  and carrying gold coins or bar is just a literal drag due to the weight and the lack of easy transfer options; plus it is fairly volatile as well as the charts show.  Let's face it, our modern economy depends heavily on a payment form that is easy (electronic payments in a store and transfers for large transactions), easy to carry (bank-notes) for small purchases and fairly stable (most cryptos are just too volatile for large transactions).  

 

Year-end Price 1980 in USD 598.50 - which fell 50% to $272. 50 at the end of 2000.

It took until 2006 for gold to climb back to 1980 levels; for many people 26 years is a long time to wait

Gold reached its peak in 2012 at $1664 - by 2015 it had fallen 36% to $1060.  In 2018, it was still down 23%.  Now at $1499 and still about 10% below its peak - much of that appreciation in the last year likely coming from a flight to safety due to trade wars, stock volatility etc.  

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart 

 

On another note - there was a big increase in gold prices in 2007; it seems that institutional investors realized much earlier than the general public what was about to happen in September 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You could say that for most indexes. 

 

Over the past decades, the Dow or the Nasdaq have been up and down, as much as gold...actually some European indexes have yet to recover their level of 2000 or 2008...

 

As for inflation, these numbers do actually reflect it, they show that while gold maintains its purchasing power over the long term, currencies don't... they constantly depreciate (the result of inflation) ... one needs more dollars or yens to buy the same thing year after year. 

 

Of course, this doesn't mean that one should have all one's assets in gold, or anything else for that matter... diversification is essential... 

[Mavideol]

On 8/7/2019 at 3:33 PM, webfact said:

Thai central bank surprisingly cuts key rate, worried by baht strength

too little too late...555 maybe another .25% down and we may see some movement on the rates

[Chivas]

Baht continues to gain strength Friday.....30.72 now. So much for patience as one BM suggested,

Too much inflow of monies currently to make any dent on the currency. Whether its a safe haven for money or not is debatable but its certainly still perceived to be

[Isaan sailor]

This begs the questions: Does the government really care about Baht appreciation?  Or are they the cause of the problem?

[tingtongtourist]

42 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

This begs the questions: Does the government really care about Baht appreciation?  Or are they the cause of the problem?

Currencies falling everywhere because there country are in deep รhit and dropping rates to the zero.

 

No country has ANY control in their currency and when constantly going down then surely that country have a bigger "problem" than Thailands problem of a baht being to strong.

 

smarter leaders may consider, best to have a high currency that refuse to go down, and have a stable economy....

 

rather than have the currency going down in freefall out of control because the country is stupidly lowering rates and make them falling further into รhit!

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

This begs the questions: Does the government really care about Baht appreciation?  Or are they the cause of the problem?

In other, more normal, times, having a strong currency was something to be proud of, and certainly not a "problem" . 

 

Countries like Germany or Switzerland stand where they are today thanks to strong economies that reflected in strong currencies (until the unfortunate advent of the euro), constantly appreciating against those of their weaker neighbors and competitors... 

 

Nowadays, with this terminally ill economic and financial system, most countries are resorting to so-called competitive devaluations, like sick patients in search of ever more morphine which, unfortunately doesn't cure anything but only helps to forget the reality for a little while... 

[Berkshire]

For those Americans out there....I wonder if this is even possible.  Aside from just lowering interest rates. 

 

[President Donald Trump on Thursday called on the Federal Reserve to take steps to weaken the U.S. dollar...]

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-presses-fed-weaken-dollar-154859024.html?.tsrc=jtc_news_index

 

[Hans007]

I honestly think they should do another lowering of Intrest...its still too high. Bath is still way too strong IMHO. It scares off tourists. That and making visa rules more simple...but then again that probably will NOT happen.

 

If i fly to fe Singapore,Malaysia,Japan,South-Korea,Hong Kong or Taiwan i get 90 days om tourist visa...and without paying anything!! Hows that?

 

Take care.

 

Hans

Edited August 9, 2019 by Hans007

[aledale]

On 8/8/2019 at 09:25, Berkshire said:

Esattamente. L'abbassamento dei tassi di interesse scoraggerà scoraggiando l'ingresso di denaro straniero, il che dovrebbe tradursi nell'indebolimento del baht nel tempo. Sono costantemente sorpreso dal fatto che così tanti espatriati acquistino l'assurdità che i thailandesi stanno "manipolando" il THB per renderlo più forte. Non ha senso .... se si capisce qualcosa sulla finanza internazionale e sull'economia di base. 

If it's true what you said, how do you explain that the thai gdp grows and will grow up half and less than half of the gdp of all the other south asian countries?

Thb is not exchanged on the stock market, gdp grows just 2,5/2,8 % , and now they cut the interests.... 

What else can influence the thai baht to make it the strongest currency in the world?

[aledale]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

In altri tempi, più normali, avere una moneta forte era qualcosa di cui essere orgogliosi, e certamente non un "problema". 

 

Paesi come la Germania o la Svizzera stanno dove sono oggi grazie a forti economie che si riflettono in valute forti (fino allo sfortunato avvento dell'euro), apprezzando costantemente contro quelle dei loro vicini e concorrenti più deboli ... 

 

Oggi, con questo sistema economico e finanziario malato terminale, la maggior parte dei paesi ricorre a cosiddette svalutazioni competitive, come i pazienti malati in cerca di sempre più morfina che, purtroppo, non cura nulla ma aiuta a dimenticare la realtà solo per un po ' ... 

Honestly german was in the shit and Europe and euro saved them, getting low salary good worker from east europe and selling its good thanks a very weak Mark, that it's actually named euro

[Berkshire]

7 hours ago, aledale said:

If it's true what you said, how do you explain that the thai gdp grows and will grow up half and less than half of the gdp of all the other south asian countries?

Thb is not exchanged on the stock market, gdp grows just 2,5/2,8 % , and now they cut the interests.... 

What else can influence the thai baht to make it the strongest currency in the world?

Currency exchange isn't an exact science.  There isn't any one thing that determines where the THB will be, relative to the various other currencies.  I tend to believe that events in other countries (e.g., USA, UK, Europe, Aus, Canada, etc.) plays a larger role.  But what's been playing an oversized role in Thailand appears to be foreign money coming in to Thailand's financial markets.  They're purchasing baht to do it, which will naturally cause the THB to strengthen.

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, aledale said:

Honestly german was in the shit and Europe and euro saved them, getting low salary good worker from east europe and selling its good thanks a very weak Mark, that it's actually named euro

Yes the euro saved Germany and more or less doomed the others who can't survive with a DM/euro, even a devalued one...