Thai central bank to cut 2019 growth forecast again - government

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Thai central bank to cut 2019 growth forecast again - government

 

FILE PHOTO: Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank will lower its 2019 economic growth forecast of 3.3% as growth slows amid rising global trade protectionism, the governor said on Monday.

 

The central bank is also worried about strength in the baht <THB=TH> but it has only acted on excessive moves in the currency, Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told a central bank seminar in the northeastern Khon Kaen province.

 

The central bank will review its economic forecasts at its next policy meeting on Sept. 25. In June, the central bank cut its 2019 GDP forecast to 3.3% from 3.8%. The economy grew by 4.1% last year.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy on Monday reported second quarter growth of 2.3%, its weakest annual growth in nearly five years. First-half growth is 2.6%.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Darren Schuettler)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-08-19

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[nev]

Can 1997 happen again here? You would not bet against it.

[vivananahuahin]

it can happen if they don't do nothing,i think the GDP will not go higher of 1,8% in 2019,there is not yet a recession,but they need to be careful and readjust the currency,economy for a country is very important and the last 6 months tourism and export are going down and down.

[tjo o tjim]

I agree 1.8% is a lot more likely, but how exactly could 1997 happen again with the Baht already floated?  Even 0 growth for the year and a forecast of 5% contraction for 2020 seems unlikely to move USDTHB north of 35.  Smart money seems to think 32 within 6 months based on “fire sales” pricing at some condos.

[Eric Loh]

The damage of the coup is coming home to roost. The coup has created political uncertainty that caused FDI to avoid Thailand and went to Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia. Without new FDI, there is an export deficit. Even now, the trade war and supply chain disruption has not benefited Thailand. Investors are avoiding Thailand due to political uncertainty. The past government was only interested to go after political oppositions to safeguard their existence and paid little attention to the economy. 5 wasted years. The free trade negotiation with EU stalemated while Vietnam steal a march on Thailand. Very little trade delegations to find new markets as the junta prefer to keep looking inwards. The much touted infrastructure projects seem to hit an impasse and done nothing for the economy. Thailand economy has yet to hit bottom and it's a matter who will hit bottom first; Prayut or the economy.   

[ukrules]

6 minutes ago, tjo o tjim said:

how exactly could 1997 happen again with the Baht already floated?

It's not freely floated, there are controls in place.

 

Removing those controls....

[harada]

Entrenched corruption has inevitably killed the goose. ????

[Nowisee]

1 hour ago, harada said:

Entrenched corruption has inevitably killed the goose. ????

I agree and it's history (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines...) repeating itself.  

[Isaan sailor]

So ironic—the recipient of hot money inflows from foreign unnamed sources, now lowers their estimate of growth.  Well, duh!  Maybe you should not hold so many short term bond sales, or at least take and distribute fewer kickbacks...

[Jimbo2014]

The annual ritual of cutting forecasts.  3.3% is very low for a country with Thailands GDP per capita.  Check neighboring countries including Malaysia.

[RichardColeman]

On 8/19/2019 at 10:38 AM, vivananahuahin said:

i think the GDP will not go higher of 1,8%

Think you're at least 1.8% over !

[Cadbury]

But wait!

The PM only just weeks ago appointed himself as the controller of the economic team. And look what's happened since he has been in the job.

The Board of Investment announced that it has approved investment promotion for 717 projects, which will create 43,878 jobs and promote the use of local materials worth Bt236 billion and earn up to Bt337 billion in exports.

The man is a living legend.

https://news.thaivisa.com/article/39027/foreign-investment-more-than-doubles-in-first-half-as-boi-gets-758-new-projects

 

[jerojero]

No. The property bubble in 97 was far bigger. Real estate speculation was rampant and out of control then.

Can 1997 happen again here? You would not bet against it.