Baht Forecast } 25 BHT to the £

[Jane Dough]

16 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If the baht/£ hits that low, I can safely predict there will be ZERO exports from Thailand to the UK

What about the "export" of expats?

 

Rooster

[Farang99]

18 hours ago, Issannative said:

I forecast 43 on sep 14

From your mouth to God's ear

[Survivor9]

BS

[Enoon]

3 hours ago, Jonnapat said:

A couple of days ago, after  the slightest hint that a deal might be possible, sterling rose by more than 1%, not a lot but shows to me that if a miracle of a delay to article 50 or an agreement on some kind of deal were possibly there would bd sn immediate jump in the value of the pound. 

Fingers crossed. 

 

Watch it go (relatively) stratospheric when the whole thing gets called off.

 

Did I just say that?

 

Look out! here they come:

 

 

[Max69xl]

19 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Have they been accurate in previous forecasts?

Now it´s about the crazy man Boris Johnson. The £ dropped 5 baht in a few days after he became the new PM.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Max69xl
Typo

[Lancelot01]

17 hours ago, brokenbone said:

britts out, good guys in

Single T for brits please.

[aqua4]

20 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

they forecast a additional 31% drop by 3.5 years from now.

 

2023

Jun

25.761

24.688-26.746

25.717

-31.5%

 

Ja that is one massive fall. That 800,000 THB for retirement will then be very difficult. 21K pounds to 37k? Thats a massive jump.

[pennine]

Forecasting is always difficult, especially of the future. Economists spend half their time making predictions and the other half explaining why they were wrong.

[whaleboneman]

Forecasting more than three years out is ridiculous. Forecasting to three decimal points makes me think a kid just got a new calculator.

[Issannative]

Mmmm 47 sep 21

[Issannative]

I rubbed talk on some wood am sure it's as good an indicator as the spectators use

[Foexie]

On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 5:19 PM, JonBreadMan said:

Why do they think a big drop in Oct, Just when I get back from the UK.... Is not Breakfarse end of Oct

Probably because your pm can't wait to get out the EU without a plan somewhere in october.

[sunnyboy2018]

13 hours ago, soalbundy said:

You're not that vicar who predicted the rapture are you?

The rapture is an evangelical thing. Vicars are English. The British economy is one of the top ten strongest in the world thus the weak pound does not reflect the strength of the economy but the uncertainty ovet Brexit.  Thailand is one of the worst economies in the world and the strong baht is not a true reflection of economic strength. Once the UK leaves the EU the euro will crash too.

[nickmondo]

12 hours ago, Max69xl said:

Now it´s about the crazy man Boris Johnson. The £ dropped 5 baht in a few days after he became the new PM.

absolute rubbish

of course it didnt.

 

[RichardColeman]

19 hours ago, madmen said:

Well if that were true the pound would already be heading back up as brexit WILL be resolved one way or the other .

Not with remoaners running the show still trying and instil further project fear

[Grumpy John]

I can understand the frustration of the Brit's on the forum.  The Aussie $ has slid from 32.50 down to 20. Partly due to the fact the politician's in Oz have <deleted> for brains...and partly due to the baht getting stronger.  But the pound at 25 baht,  that would be bad! 

 

[jobas69]

????????

[Iforbach]

No drink and fast 2 days a week ..quids in...20 kilo to go 

[KhaoYai]

I'd be more worried about a recession where all currencies drop. Another world wide recession is already being talked about and this childish tit for tat between Trump and China could make that a reality.

 

The current reasons for the fall in the £'s value are well known but the baht is also very strong - I just don't understand how that is.  Chan-o Cha keeps on claiming the economy is doing well but I hear a different story from both Thai and foreign business's.

 

OK, Thailand is sort of back to a normal government now but when other countries are taken over in a coup, their currency usually plummets - in 2014 the baht didn't..........why?

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

The reason why it will hit B 25 in the future is displayed here. You are a nation divided and like the old (Great Britian) saying goes divide and rule. If you cannot learn to work together regardless of your political differences you will fall on your own sword. The only way the British economy can survive Brexit is for the Pound to fall to a level where it will compensate for the loss of open EU access. Where that level is the market will decide and no economist can predict it. What we are seeing now is Pound and USD weakness not Baht strength. The high Baht can come down very hard or it can stay high depending on many factors which no person can predict. But in general countries thats divided like Britian and the US dont do well over the longterm. 

[greeneking]

51 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

The reason why it will hit B 25 in the future is displayed here. You are a nation divided and like the old (Great Britian) saying goes divide and rule. If you cannot learn to work together regardless of your political differences you will fall on your own sword. The only way the British economy can survive Brexit is for the Pound to fall to a level where it will compensate for the loss of open EU access. Where that level is the market will decide and no economist can predict it. What we are seeing now is Pound and USD weakness not Baht strength. The high Baht can come down very hard or it can stay high depending on many factors which no person can predict. But in general countries thats divided like Britian and the US dont do well over the longterm. 

There is no point in the pound falling to gain an economic advantage if countries like Thailand fail to pass on lower prices for their goods here.  No-one is buying more beer, extra cheese, beauty products etc etc etc because the prices have not gone down.  Far from it.

[KhaoYai]

8 hours ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

The reason why it will hit B 25 in the future is displayed here. You are a nation divided and like the old (Great Britian) saying goes divide and rule. If you cannot learn to work together regardless of your political differences you will fall on your own sword.

Can't agree - its happening everywhere. Division is endemic in many nations now. Look at the USA, then, closer to home, look at Thailand. Red Shirts/Yellow Shirts. Do you think the red shirt movement has gone away? Worldwide division and polarisation is a very 'hot topic' in political analytical circles. The rise in populism is largely seen as the reason - certainly true of the USA and UK.

 

The pound fell along with many currencies during the worldwide recession. It may or may not have recovered when the recession ended but it never got the chance - the Brexit vote saw to that - it fell again immediately and has kept on doing so.  That idiot Johson only has to say more things the markets don't like and it falls.  Its pretty safe to say that the £ will fall again if the UK leaves the EU without a deal but it will rise again eventually - it has to.  That is the sole reason for the state of the pound at the moment and its not because of division. The stories of spits between families etc. are hugely exagerated - the main splits are between our politicians who can't agree on anything.  I'm neither a leaver or remainer - somewhere between but I believe the public as a whole (leavers and remainers) feel that a deal would be preferable but would accept a no deal situation, simply because 3 years of uncertainty has done so much damage - it needs to stop.

 

Looking purely at the relationship between the £ and the baht (as that's what concerns me ????). It is unrealistic to think that the economy of Thailand is stronger than that of the UK. All Asian countries economies are rising - its 'Asia's century' but Thailand has some way to go before it can even start to be compared to the UK in terms of strength and I simply don't believe the figures Chan-o-Cha is peddling. I think if a true civillian government took over - some different figures might emerge.

 

I am confident that the £ will rise against the baht but when that will happen is anybody's guess - it depends entirely on how Brexit goes.

 

Anyway, I have a flight to catch - you'll see the tears rolling down my cheeks when I arrive at Superich Exchange on Monday morning ????.

Edited August 24, 2019 by KhaoYai

[ThaiBunny]

51 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Can't agree - its happening everywhere. Division is endemic in many nations now. Look at the USA, then, closer to home, look at Thailand. Red Shirts/Yellow Shirts. Do you think the red shirt movement has gone away? Worldwide division and polarisation is a very 'hot topic' in political analytical circles. The rise in populism is largely seen as the reason - certainly true of the USA and UK.

I absolutely agree. We've never had political divisions in society before ????

Edited August 24, 2019 by ThaiBunny

[Handsome Gardener]

On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 7:19 PM, swissie said:

There is no Algorithm or any person born by a woman that can project the value of anything traded in open markets with such accuracy over a given time period.

As far as the £ is concerned, I will say this: There are a lot of "negatives" already priced into the £ in connection with "Brexit". But in case of a "no deal" Brexit, most likely the £ will weaken further.

This is the scenario currently expected within the "currency trading community".

- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets. This would be the time the £ has hit "rock-bottom", spiking up quickly.
It all depends of the "preparedness" of the Brits and how they fit into their "new world".
- A bad time to sell the £ at this time. But there are a lot of folks around (with cash in their hands) to buy the £ at "rock-bottom" price if there are indications that the Brits will be able to digest the Brexit within a reasonable time-frame. (I myself have a little cash in my hands to buy the £ if the time is right).

Strictly my personal assement of short term things to come. No idea where the £ will be 5 years from now. Neither does anyone else. With or without Algorithms. The Clairvoiant Gipsies from Romania all work for Goldman Sachs and live in NY.

Head in the sand stuff - you are correct there is no algorithm that can perfectly predict future values which is why they are called FORECASTS !

 

Secondly, the software that produces this stuff costs millions, look back at their track record and you will see they are stunningly accurate - when they predicted it would be 37 now last year the same 'no one can predict it' baloney came out. Where is it now ?

 

What currency are you holding to buy sterling in the future then ? The pound is doomed for many many years - Brexit compounded by Bojo Johnson will see to that - the markets have already told you what they think of the self harm the UK is going through (in the millions of Brexit threads on here a brexiteer is yet to explain why its sinking - odd that)

 

The £ will be roughly where these guys predict it will be or pretty close. Major conglomerates pay millions for this modelling in order to ascertain their borrowing requirements in future years and likely P&L. If it was wrong they wouldn't be able to sell it for vast sums.

 

To ignore it is foolhardy.

[Handsome Gardener]

On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 9:05 PM, sunnyboy2018 said:

After Brexit, when the uncertainty has diminished,  I expect the pound to recover not go down.

Is that Brexit deal or Brexit no deal ? 

 

If no deal - when Brexit is over the uncertainty will just be starting !

[Handsome Gardener]

On ‎8‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 9:35 AM, grumpy 4680 said:

        If rate of exchange can be predicted that far ahead, then that means some are working to manipulate those figures.

Good grief why ? why would anyone want to manipulate those figures ? To achieve what ? to gain what ? - go and google currency risk modelling, educate yourself.

 

No-one needs to believe them, they won't give a rats <deleted> whether you believe them or not, they have no axe to grind with anyone, they make no profit by predicting doom - however they DO make money by providing accurate data to predominantly large conglomerates AND governments who make seriously large financial decisions.

 

The dim witted will mention finger in the air/crystal ball type stuff predictably but this is largely accurate. Thousands of parameters go into this stuff, even down to percentages of negative global events and when governments make their budgets, where do you think they get their figures from when predicting future balances ?

[Percy P]

On ‎8‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 2:32 AM, Traubert said:

I am a Brit and I can confidently advise you that the Brits couldn't prepare a <deleted> in a women's prison with a fistful of pardons. Dawn is a daily amazement to the British parliament. They are as thick as pudding.

Are you a British Citizen or ethnically a true British person, English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh  as their is a difference. I'm British, ethnically English. What are you, if not a British person what's your ethnicity.

Edited September 7, 2019 by Percy P

[Naam]

On 9/7/2019 at 8:03 AM, Percy P said:

On 8/23/2019 at 1:32 AM, Traubert said:

I am a Brit and I can confidently advise you that the Brits couldn't prepare a <deleted> in a women's prison with a fistful of pardons. Dawn is a daily amazement to the British parliament. They are as thick as pudding.

Are you a British Citizen or ethnically a true British person, English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh  as their is a difference. I'm British, ethnically English. What are you, if not a British person what's your ethnicity.

Edited yesterday at 08:11 AM by Percy P

does it matter? looking at the present chaos BoJo created his comments seem to hit the nail on the head.