Tony Blair warns UK Labour: Don't fall into election 'elephant trap'

 

Britain's Former Prime Minister Tony Blair attends a service of thanksgiving for Lord Heywood in Westminster Abbey in London, Britain June 20, 2019. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/Pool

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is laying an election “elephant trap” for the opposition Labour Party that it should avoid, former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair warned on Monday.

 

“Boris Johnson knows that if no-deal Brexit stands on its own as a proposition it might well fail but if he mixes it up with the Corbyn question in a general election he could succeed despite a majority being against a no-deal Brexit because some may fear a Corbyn premiership more,” Blair said.

 

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn “should see an election before Brexit is decided for the elephant trap it is,” he said.

 

Johnson has pledged to deliver Brexit on October 31 whether he agrees a new deal with the European Union or not.

 

Opposition lawmakers - and a contingent from Johnson’s Conservatives from Tuesday - will try to legislate this week to stop the possibility of no-deal.

 

Johnson has threatened to expel rebel Conservative lawmakers if they thwart his Brexit plans by voting with the opposition, a move that would eradicate his already slim majority and make his ability to govern very difficult.

 

He could then seek an election to break the deadlock.

 

House of Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg has said rebel legislation would be considered a matter of confidence in the government.

 

“It is important for the government to establish the confidence of the House of Commons and this is essentially a confidence matter: Who should control the legislative agenda, Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson?” Rees-Mogg said.

 

Blair said the Brexiteers were laying a trap, “to seem as if pushed into an election, whilst actively preparing for one”.

 

“If the Government tries to force an election now, Labour should vote against it,” he said.

 

An election would be framed as a choice between Johnson delivering Brexit plus a populist Conservative programme or turning the country, its economy and security over to Corbyn and his small group of acolytes from the far left, Blair said.

 

He said the challenge of an election before Brexit had been decided was “brutally clear”, and Corbyn’s poll ratings did not indicate he could win.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-09-02

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More blah blah from Tony Bliar

 

The selfsame PM who believed in Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

 

The EU's roving ambassador for the Middle East. You did well while you were there, just look at it now.

 

Certainly not the sort of person I would buy a second hand car from.

6 minutes ago, billd766 said:

More blah blah from Tony Bliar

 

The selfsame PM who believed in Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

 

The EU's roving ambassador for the Middle East. You did well while you were there, just look at it now.

 

Certainly not the sort of person I would buy a second hand car from.

But from Boris?

14 minutes ago, billd766 said:

More blah blah from Tony Bliar

 

The selfsame PM who believed in Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

 

The EU's roving ambassador for the Middle East. You did well while you were there, just look at it now.

 

Certainly not the sort of person I would buy a second hand car from.

Do you have anything to say on the message or only on the messager?

 

I do agree with him on this btw.

Edited September 2, 20196 yr by stevenl

13 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Do you have anything to say on the message or only on the messager?

 

I do agree with him on this btw.

Up to you.

 

I would rather buy a used car from Arfur Daly

 

IMHO was is nothing but a snake oil salesman and should be prosecuted as a war criminal.

Blair really is a to$$er

 

I think it's him and the BBC who hate Corbyn.

Besides a few obscure references to anti sematism and old stuff of him

at a pro Palestinian rally, what has he really done, or likely to do if elected?

 

Boris is already throwing money around like a matelot on shore leave in Pattaya,

so a socialist Corbyn government couldn't do much more harm to the economy.

 

I would probably vote labour if I lived south of the border, but it's solid SNP country

where I live and labour are a distant 4th having lost deposits even in the Blair era.

 

I am genuinely interested as the bulk of my information regarding Corbyn comes from

the BBC and their reporting about his apparent hatred of everything Jewish is bordering

on the hysterical.

 

I understand that everyone, everywhere involved in politics is an a$$ but what are the

Labour party all about??? 

2 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Up to you.

 

I would rather buy a used car from Arfur Daly

 

IMHO was is nothing but a snake oil salesman and should be prosecuted as a war criminal.

I did watch his speech , he started off lying and continued all the way through, it didn't show how many was in the audience, but after he finished, his reception was less than luke warm.

BLAIR  the war criminal, i remember an old lady saying just after, the event, at least under Saddam Hussain i could go to the markets without fear of being blown up, all this brought on by Blair and his WOMD, just look at this country now.

1 hour ago, shy coconut said:

Blair really is a to$$er

 

I think it's him and the BBC who hate Corbyn.

Besides a few obscure references to anti sematism and old stuff of him

at a pro Palestinian rally, what has he really done, or likely to do if elected?

 

Boris is already throwing money around like a matelot on shore leave in Pattaya,

so a socialist Corbyn government couldn't do much more harm to the economy.

 

I would probably vote labour if I lived south of the border, but it's solid SNP country

where I live and labour are a distant 4th having lost deposits even in the Blair era.

 

I am genuinely interested as the bulk of my information regarding Corbyn comes from

the BBC and their reporting about his apparent hatred of everything Jewish is bordering

on the hysterical.

 

I understand that everyone, everywhere involved in politics is an a$$ but what are the

Labour party all about??? 

It doesn't really matter if the criticism of him is deserved or not. It has made him unelectable to a large part of UK society, so he will not be able to get any cross votes. Only labour, and even there the voters are not convinced.

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

Up to you.

 

I would rather buy a used car from Arfur Daly

 

IMHO was is nothing but a snake oil salesman and should be prosecuted as a war criminal.

So you got nothing on the topic.

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

So you got nothing on the topic.

And neither have you.

11 minutes ago, billd766 said:

And neither have you.

i did, check my first post in the topic.

 

No idea why this was underlined, now removed.

Edited September 2, 20196 yr by stevenl

Bearing in mind the leash that W. Bush held, does DT now have the same hold on Blair?  When was his most recent communication with Steve Bannon?

Same painted-on quasi-smile he's always had, slimey fellow.

 

 

15 minutes ago, bendejo said:

Bearing in mind the leash that W. Bush held, does DT now have the same hold on Blair?  When was his most recent communication with Steve Bannon?

Same painted-on quasi-smile he's always had, slimey fellow.

 

 

The Bannon connection is to Rees Mogg and Farage.

Blair is correct, as confirmed by Johnson now declaring if he is defeated in Parliament he’ll call an election.

 

 

6 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Blair is correct, as confirmed by Johnson now declaring if he is defeated in Parliament he’ll call an election.

 

 

Absolutely, what Blair has done in the past like Iraq, which is correctly criticized, is irrelevant. He won 3 elections, it is just possible he may understand something about doing that! No one apparently has ever won an election when their party is lagging 7+% in the polls. Why is Corbyn welcoming an election, how suicidal can you get. There is the possibility that enough of the Labour Party are not raving lunatics, and Boris won't get his 2/3 support, unlikely if brain free Corbyn leads them into the fray. Corbyn's ability to glibly march straight into elephant traps has been demonstrated again and again.

His greatest achievement may be putting a far right Tory party into power, and the country goes back to the dark ages. The only benefit I see is Corbyn being beaten by the Liberals in his own seat, or getting dumped by the party, it could be many years before Labour recovers. 

 

13 hours ago, stevenl said:

it doesn't really matter if the criticism of him is deserved or not. It has made him unelectable to a large part of UK society, so he will not be able to get any cross votes. Only labour, and even there the voters are not convinced.

Exactly, criticism of MSM and the BBC is popular in this forum, usually from Brexiteers, if both sides see them as the enemy of truth then it's probable that they are doing something right!! It's not about truth for the voters, it's about perception. If the voters believe Boris is a slim, faithful, compassionate, decent, honest man, that's what they will vote on, ludicrous as it obviously is.

Question for anyone who can explain how the British system works:

 

What happens if the House passes a law requiring Boris to request an extension and Boris tries to call an election but can not get the 2/3rds majority?  He has stated categorically he will not do this, so my question is what happens then? How soon does he need to resign? How long would it take to elect a new PM? Can Boris wait until Oct. 31 and then resign, and thus not give parliament a chance to elect a new PM?  Curious to understand how this will play out.

15 hours ago, billd766 said:

More blah blah from Tony Bliar

This is one of those very few cases that I think he actually has a point.

15 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

But from Boris?

When Boris has lied about weapons of mass destruction to try and justify involving the UK in an illegal war in which more than 150,000 people died, a million were displaced and which gave rise to ISIS, get back to us.

44 minutes ago, Monomial said:

Question for anyone who can explain how the British system works:

 

What happens if the House passes a law requiring Boris to request an extension and Boris tries to call an election but can not get the 2/3rds majority?  He has stated categorically he will not do this, so my question is what happens then? How soon does he need to resign? How long would it take to elect a new PM? Can Boris wait until Oct. 31 and then resign, and thus not give parliament a chance to elect a new PM?  Curious to understand how this will play out.

In simple terms if Parliament passed a law requiring an extension and the PM refused we would be back in court asking another constitutional legal question.

An "elephant trap" by its physical nature is an obvious trap from which one is not surprised.

Hardly novel advice not to fall into one.

Frankly, aside from the exchange rate £ to Baht/$ or whatever currency affects you which we can do nothing about, I don't understand anyone who has effectively given up on life in the UK getting irate about anything Brexit related.

 

Yes, I'm really p***ed off about the exchange rate. I transferred £900 to US$ recently and received $250 less than I did before the vote.

 

Life in the UK isn't going back to some glassy eyed version of the good old days, whatever they were. As a man who did 20 years in uniform I was always very proud of my country, not so now, with each passing day we become more pathetic in the eyes of everyone.

Wise words from a wise man.

He knows what Boris the opportunist liar is doing.

So here we are years down the road no effective government no effective opposition splinter groups springing up all over the place every man and his dog thinks they know what's best 100m being spent on just one add preparing for a no deal Brexit a powder keg of uncertainty for business for what? nothing is worth the billions already chucked down the drain on aspirations of a few rich Etonians that have already fallen woefully short. time for a coup or uprising and a peoples government to end this stupidity before the riots start as the poor pick up the huge tab???? 

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

Question for anyone who can explain how the British system works:

 

What happens if the House passes a law requiring Boris to request an extension and Boris tries to call an election but can not get the 2/3rds majority?  He has stated categorically he will not do this, so my question is what happens then? How soon does he need to resign? How long would it take to elect a new PM? Can Boris wait until Oct. 31 and then resign, and thus not give parliament a chance to elect a new PM?  Curious to understand how this will play out.

That's the Problem, I do not think Parliament has ever passed a law compelling an individual into doing anything,  best we could hope for would be a law curtailing the executive powers of government, but even when parliament is in recess or prorogued, or even dissolved for a General Election the government still functions until a new government is formed.

 

What is needed is away that Parliament could be recalled if say 50% +1 or more MP's were to petition the Speaker (the speakers office). 

Edited September 3, 20196 yr by Basil B

I think Labour are really out of touch with what is going on in the minds of voters. Let us set the scenario by saying most seats are "safe" ie have been Labour to Tory for generations. Swing seats make the difference as to who will lead the country.

Much of Labour support is "historical" and based on habit and located in the north of England (Scotland is independent and that will not change here). Many of these "historical" safe and marginal Labour seats will fall if there is an election anytime soon as many of the Labour electorate voted to leave. Corbyn has made the disastrous decision to ignore the Labour voters who Brexit, and this will cost him and his party dearly indeed....many of those "historic" Labour voters switched to the Brexit party in the EU elections in May. 

I have to say that I have been wrong about Corbyn. I have always supported the guy, thinking him to be brave and more or less corruption-free. I thought that ethics and morality might come to mean something in the UK after the debacles and atrocities of the Tories. I was wrong....the guy is unelectable, just like everyone told me.

Having said that winning any election and taking charge of the economy at a time when there is going to be a major recession magnified by Brexit, is a poisoned chalice, and the winning party will be blamed for it and will be unelectable for a generation.

1 hour ago, Pedrogaz said:

I think Labour are really out of touch with what is going on in the minds of voters. Let us set the scenario by saying most seats are "safe" ie have been Labour to Tory for generations. Swing seats make the difference as to who will lead the country.

Much of Labour support is "historical" and based on habit and located in the north of England (Scotland is independent and that will not change here). Many of these "historical" safe and marginal Labour seats will fall if there is an election anytime soon as many of the Labour electorate voted to leave. Corbyn has made the disastrous decision to ignore the Labour voters who Brexit, and this will cost him and his party dearly indeed....many of those "historic" Labour voters switched to the Brexit party in the EU elections in May. 

I have to say that I have been wrong about Corbyn. I have always supported the guy, thinking him to be brave and more or less corruption-free. I thought that ethics and morality might come to mean something in the UK after the debacles and atrocities of the Tories. I was wrong....the guy is unelectable, just like everyone told me.

Having said that winning any election and taking charge of the economy at a time when there is going to be a major recession magnified by Brexit, is a poisoned chalice, and the winning party will be blamed for it and will be unelectable for a generation.

I think Boris's gamble is that if he were to win a GE with a comfortable majority, then it wouldn't really matter if a No Deal Brexit destroyed the economy, because 1) the poor would pay as is standard practice with the Tories.

2) He would be in power for years even if it was power over a dust heap.

3) His friends would still be able to avoid tax.

 

A recent statement by a front bencher in the shadow cabinet said that LP would not fall for a GE ploy if it meant an election before 31st October. Boris was betting on Corbyn taking an idiotic "up and at them stance", but the party may have pulled on the bridle, and reigned him back - what a complete mug. 

 

"I have always supported the guy, thinking him to be brave and more or less corruption-free. I thought that ethics and morality might come to mean something in the UK after the debacles and atrocities of the Tories. I was wrong....the guy is unelectable, just like everyone told me."

Fair enough, I think he is basically decent, and receives a lot of twisted press, I admire him for inspiring many young people to join the party. Trouble is he has been a pathetically weak leader, his "Advisors" walk all over him. He has gone from very promising to sad old inadequate in a few years. 

Is there somebody, who can explain me British democracy ?

The PM decides, when there is a general election, when and about what the HoC is allowed to discuss and vote, and even if with 400 against 160 a possibility is rejected, still forces his will on the entire country. And if he pleases.. sends the parlaiment home for some weeks, even in a critical period. One of the Houses of Parliament is not elected, but appointed ( House of Lords), wants to have souvernity between its borders, but a 100% open border between itsself and the EU ( N-S Ireland).

The coutnry itsself is devided in 650 baronie4s ( constituencies) for which the one with the most votes in that area gets the seat and the others nothing. So, with 4 mln votes, you can end up with no seat at all. 

17 hours ago, stevenl said:

i did, check my first post in the topic.

 

No idea why this was underlined, now removed.

The underline is still there but no matter.

15 hours ago, cleopatra2 said:

In simple terms if Parliament passed a law requiring an extension and the PM refused we would be back in court asking another constitutional legal question.

 

13 hours ago, Basil B said:

That's the Problem, I do not think Parliament has ever passed a law compelling an individual into doing anything,  best we could hope for would be a law curtailing the executive powers of government, but even when parliament is in recess or prorogued, or even dissolved for a General Election the government still functions until a new government is formed.

 

What is needed is away that Parliament could be recalled if say 50% +1 or more MP's were to petition the Speaker (the speakers office). 

 

Thanks for the explanation. So if I understand what is likely to happen now:

 

The House can not directly compel BJ to ask for an extension, but they could restrict his options if the EU initiated an event. Of course, right now the EU requires the UK to initiate a request for an extension, but there may be some legal way around this where the EU rules could be changed so they can offer an extension and Boris would be required to accept it.

 

Since it now appears that his bid for a new election will not be granted by Corbyn and he has lost control of parliament, it seems like this might wind up in the courts with a constitutional crisis.

 

Question: rather than letting a few judges decide the fate of the UK now, wouldn't it honestly be better just to go ahead with the election and give the people a chance to voice their opinion?  I understand it might not be the best thing for the politicians, but looking at the mess this is becoming, wouldn't it be more responsible than a contentious court battle which ultimately will be decided by the personal values of a few judges balancing legal precedents?