After Brexit, the UK has no choice but to become an American vassal state?

[intheheartoftheheart]

I'll quote from the article:

 

Half the UK’s trade portfolio today is with the EU. In perfect conditions it takes the EU over a decade to negotiate a trade deal with countries they like (think Canada). Add in some Brexit-related bad-blood, the never-far-below-the-surface geopolitical competition with the French, the Dutch insistence that anyone who gains access to EU markets also follow EU rules in full, an Irish penchant for knife-twisting, Germany’s iron-clad demand that the UK pay Europe in cash for EU market access, and Spain’s never-ending bitching about Gibraltar, and ten years will barely be enough time to decide the shape of the negotiating table. That flat-out rules out meaningful re-integration with the Continent on the sort of time frame the EU likely has left (which in and of itself will be a topic for later in this series of newsletters).
 
Turkey is often mooted in the British press as a replacement, but its current imports from the UK are less than 1/30^th the amount they would need to be to replace the UK’s exports to the EU. In fact, to replace EU trade, Turkey would have to import from the UK exclusively. And the country has dropped into narcissistic nationalism. So let’s just stop pretending anyone is interested in that deal, shall we?
 
China is simply too far away to be the Brits dominant trading partner, even if you buy into the “rising China” propaganda. (Incidentally, much China-UK trade today is gateway trade to the EU. Post-Brexit that’ll go pbbbbbt.) The combined Commonwealth is both too scattered and insufficiently wealthy. Even worse, the most significant piece of the Commonwealth – India – is notoriously opposed to free trade deals on principle. Canada is willing, but just isn’t big enough. Nor does Canada boast enough young people to serve as a meaningful sink for British goods.
 
The only market with the proximity, size, institutional capacity, and complementary needs and capabilities to be a meaningful trade partner is the United States itself.

[Fairynuff]

Johnson is set to enact a law stopping any extension to the transition which will effectively force a no deal exit. He’s also refused to confirm that workers rights will not be eroded. This is what the working class said they wanted, let them have it.

I'm alright Jack.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Fairynuff
Typo

[vogie]

13 minutes ago, flossie35 said:

There are other options. The sensible one is to remain - and the majority of general election votes went to remain parties. Second best is BINO - brexit in name only _ where nothing changes except we no longer have a voice in Brussels. Taking back control??? Haha. We should never sign a trade agreement with US.

The Brexit boat has already set sail, all aboard.

Edited December 17, 2019 by vogie

[Fairynuff]

9 minutes ago, vogie said:

The Brexit boat has already set sail, all aboard.

I ain’t gettin on that boat, it’s full of holes

[Dumbastheycome]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

The Euro is still stronger than the GBP. Remember on day 1 when it was 1.42? The GBP actually rocketed to hit 1.20 when Johnson won, far short of 1.42

And now dropping away again as the  predictable profit taking skims take advantage.

[kiwikeith]

22 hours ago, fredob43 said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong. But didn't we us brits have all this

rubbish before from peeps in the UK saying we will hit the cliff by just voting to leave, did it come to prosper? well no in fact we (The UK) are doing very well, Thank you.

 

Now we have some Yank telling us what we should do/how it's going to be. Suggest that he just minds his own business. They the USA have more than enough problems of their own. 

 

Trump, Guns, Deaths/Shooting every week, I could go on just a few pointers how they are going. That might be a better thing to discus. 

I think Britain will be better of out of the EU.

Look at the scare mongering, the pound taking a hit, just to scare everyone from leaving.

They did this to Greece, nailing up supermarkets and scaring the hell out of the population, saying that cash value would be worthless.

Economic terrorism.

I think if Britain leaves more countries will follow suite.

Then we might be better off, the pound is recovering slowly now, so is the Aussie and the Kiwi, we all took a big hit from the EU terrorists.

[Jonnapat]

23 hours ago, fredob43 said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong. But didn't we us brits have all this

rubbish before from peeps in the UK saying we will hit the cliff by just voting to leave, did it come to prosper? well no in fact we (The UK) are doing very well, Thank you.

 

Now we have some Yank telling us what we should do/how it's going to be. Suggest that he just minds his own business. They the USA have more than enough problems of their own. 

 

Trump, Guns, Deaths/Shooting every week, I could go on just a few pointers how they are going. That might be a better thing to discus. 

When you say ""we (the uk ) are doing very well, thank you "" you should remember that even now the UK is still a member of the EU ,enjoying free trade with the world's largest trading bloc. And will still be negotiating on new terms for the whole of 2020.

If then a hard Brexit occurs will be the time when Britain has to grovel to the US for a trade deal that only one side will be capable of winning.

Then we can really start to be concerned especially if Trump gets re-elected. 

[Fairynuff]

49 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

And now dropping away again as the  predictable profit taking skims take advantage.

I don’t think it’s just profit taking I think there’s a penny starting to drop

[Fairynuff]

40 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Look at the scare mongering, the pound taking a hit,

So YOUR pound didn’t take a big hit? Can I have some of those please because everyone else’s dropped around 20%

[David in the north]

Complete nonsense

[George Aylesham]

2 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

Better than being a vassal state of Soviet Russia.

Back to the old saw about he EUSSR; but unlike Prague and Budapest I haven't noticed any EU tanks on the streets of London.

[fredob43]

42 minutes ago, Jonnapat said:

When you say ""we (the uk ) are doing very well, thank you "" you should remember that even now the UK is still a member of the EU ,enjoying free trade with the world's largest trading bloc. And will still be negotiating on new terms for the whole of 2020.

If then a hard Brexit occurs will be the time when Britain has to grovel to the US for a trade deal that only one side will be capable of winning.

Then we can really start to be concerned especially if Trump gets re-elected. 

So you think that UK won't get a deal??? What you have to consider is the EU sends more stuff to the UK than UK exports. If they try and play hard ball UK can tell them them to stick it. They need the UK more than the UK needs them.

Boris now has an 80 seat majority so he can do what he likes.

 

The EU is in trouble, Germany is in the do do's big time. Deutsche bank is in major trouble financially. France just goes on strike all the time. They have riots on the streets every other week. Italy is in a state of emergency (look it up) If one of the countries gets a problem they crucify them, Take the pore Greeks for ETC. Don't get me started on the Brussel lot.

Who in their right mind would want to stay in a community like that.

Well it seems not the UK.

 

 

[Pedrogaz]

The UK could, if it chose, and had MPs that agreed, refuse to become a vassal and become independent. However that is not going to happen because a) Boris is an American citizen b) our politicians are in thrall to the US in everything c) we support US wars everywhere in the globe ie we put our troops in harms way ie in front of the US and they get killed by 'friendly' fire. 

 

Expect to see US companies running our hospitals generating vast profits with their executives flying around in private jets at out expense. Sickening thoughts yes?

[chilly07]

If the UK cuts trade links with the EU worth 615tn and expects the US to up trade from 182tn to 797tn then they are certifiable! Nothing will change as Billionaire's are happy with the current arrangements and will make sure Politicians do nothing to interfere with their ill gotten gains with taxpayers footing the bill.

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Exactly how long do u want to wait?

How about 44 years, which was how long we had to wait just to get the chance to leave the EU.

 

3 hours ago, flossie35 said:

deleted post

 

[Fairynuff]

8 minutes ago, billd766 said:

How about 44 years, which was how long we had to wait just to get the chance to leave the EU.

 

 

And now you’ll get what you deserve, bring it on

[billd766]

3 hours ago, flossie35 said:

There are other options. The sensible one is to remain - and the majority of general election votes went to remain parties. Second best is BINO - brexit in name only _ where nothing changes except we no longer have a voice in Brussels. Taking back control??? Haha. We should never sign a trade agreement with US.

I am confused by your reckoning.

 

 If the majority of votes in the general election went to remain parties, why aren't they in power?

 

Why did so many Labour supporters desert Labour to support the Tories?

 

If you add up all the MPs from all the other parties together you will find that they don't have enough MPs to form even a minority parliament, which they should have been able to do as according to you, more people voted against the Tories than for the Tories.

 

Yet the Tories won and with a larger majority than before.

[Fairynuff]

3 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I am confused by your reckoning.

 

 If the majority of votes in the general election went to remain parties, why aren't they in power?

 

Why did so many Labour supporters desert Labour to support the Tories?

 

If you add up all the MPs from all the other parties together you will find that they don't have enough MPs to form even a minority parliament, which they should have been able to do as according to you, more people voted against the Tories than for the Tories.

 

Yet the Tories won and with a larger majority than before.

If you understood the political system you’d understand his reckoning, but you don’t. Perhaps you should be happy, for now.

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Johnson is set to enact a law stopping any extension to the transition which will effectively force a no deal exit. He’s also refused to confirm that workers rights will not be eroded. This is what the working class said they wanted, let them have it.

I'm alright Jack.

Oddly enough, this is what the working class said they wanted, let them have it.

 

Absolutely and please stop whining about losing.

 

3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

I ain’t gettin on that boat, it’s full of holes

 

Not to worry as you are not wanted on voyage.

[billd766]

2 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

If you understood the political system you’d understand his reckoning, but you don’t. Perhaps you should be happy, for now.

Oh I am very happy except from the incessant whining coming from the Remainers who STILL cannot accept that they lost in the referendum and again in the General election last week.

[ICELANDMAN]

My only question here is will the State US or China that will vassal Thailand ?

[Fairynuff]

2 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Oh I am very happy except from the incessant whining coming from the Remainers who STILL cannot accept that they lost in the referendum and again in the General election last week.

I totally accept that you decided to shoot yourself in the foot. I care about the people who voted remain but will be damaged by this. For the rest of you, I can’t wait to tell you to quit whining. As for me the fact that Brexit has served me well doesn’t mean I don’t realise what a disaster it is.

[Fairynuff]

21 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Absolutely and please stop whining about losing.

Show me any comment I’ve made which constitutes whining about losing. I haven’t lost anything which you don’t seem to get so I suggest you move along now.

[sawadee1947]

Good article in fact but UK's future is described too golden. 

However UK's future was and is Europe, not America though America will try to find a way to exploit UK. 

And Boris will sell it as a Big Victory over EU and the Brits will buy it. 

[allanos]

The Brits who voted for Brexit in 2016, (the majority of those who voted, and thus democracy at play), and those who voted for the Tory Party in the recent GE, and won according to long-established British rules of "first past the post", (effectively, a "second referendum" on Brexit or a second "people's vote", if you will), are facing the future with a high degree of confidence.

 

It is no good second-guessing what may or may not happen in future; there are too many permutations.  Optimistic or pessimistic scenarios can be painted but that doesn't mean they will play out as such in the future.

 

Suffice to say that the optimistic British "leavers" do not see everything only in terms of trade.  They are aware that a trade deal with the EU may not be accomplished in the short term, possibly to the detriment of the national good, or not, as the case may be. But they are excited at the possibility of being freed from the EU's code of justice, heavy bureaucracy and the mantra of "ever-closer union".  They will now have the ability to strike their own trade deals, anywhere in the world.

 

One thing that has served Britain well, when taking a long-term view, is their refusal to join the Euro mechanism at the Maastricht Treaty in 1992.  The present dip in the sterling exchange rate is a short-term event, and will lead to recovery, over time.  It is highly possible, likely even, that Brexit will serve to be an equally good call, over time.

Edited December 17, 2019 by allanos
typo

[Fairynuff]

3 minutes ago, allanos said:

The Brits who voted for Brexit in 2016, (the majority of those who voted, and thus democracy at play), and those who voted for the Tory Party in the recent GE, and won according to long-established British rules of "first past the post", (effectively, a "second referendum" on Brexit or a second "people's vote", if you will), are facing the future with a high degree of confidence.

 

It is no good second-guessing what may or may not happen in future; there are too many permutations.  Optimistic or pessimistic scenarios can be painted but that doesn't mean they will play out as such in the future.

 

Suffice to say that the optimistic British "leavers" do not see everything only in terms of trade.  They are aware that a trade deal with the EU may not be accomplished in the short term, possibly to the detriment of the national good, or not, as the case may be. But they are excited at the possibility of being freed from the EU's code of justice, heavy bureaucracy and the mantra of "ever-closer union".  They will now have the ability to strike their own trade deals, anywhere in the world.

 

One thing that has served Britain well, when taking a long-term view, is their refusal to join the Euro mechanism at the Maastricht Treaty in 1992.  The present dip in the sterling exchange rate is a short-term event, and will lead to recovery, over time.  It is highly possible, likely even, that Brexit will serve to be an equally good call, over time.

I’m full of admiration for your unlimited optimism. The present dip in the GBP of over 3 years isn’t exactly short term however. Hold on to your optimism because you’re going to need it.

[DaRoadrunner]

8 hours ago, Rocking Robert said:

You can always become the 51st state.  

Not such a bad idea actually!

 

The EU will still have to trade with us in some form as we are interdependent. Plus Britain will be free to enter into trade agreements with other countries.

 

Britain will survive, they will just make a trade agreement with the Thais. We will trade tourists for pussy.

[allanos]

12 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

I’m full of admiration for your unlimited optimism. The present dip in the GBP of over 3 years isn’t exactly short term however. Hold on to your optimism because you’re going to need it.

Take off your blinkers. The dip is for 3 years versus the 27 since Maastricht. Approximately 11% against 89% in terms of time. I would call that short term but perhaps you have a more precise definition.

 

My optimism isn't unbounded, but I give the United Kingdom a strong chance of being successful in their endeavours. The negative posts, including your own, see the glass as half empty.  I see it as half full.

[Fairynuff]

5 minutes ago, allanos said:

Take off your blinkers. The dip is for 3 years versus the 27 since Maastricht. Approximately 11% against 89% in terms of time. I would call that short term but perhaps you have a more precise definition.

 

My optimism isn't unbounded, but I give the United Kingdom a strong chance of being successful in their endeavours. The negative posts, including your own, see the glass as half empty.  I see it as half full.

Been looking for my blinkers everywhere. It seems you half inched them. You know, I’m really not negative at all, I just prefer facts over unfounded beliefs. Let’s just wait and see exactly how long these endeavours take to succeed 

[soalbundy]

8 hours ago, Rocking Robert said:

You can always become the 51st state.  

I thought we already were