Increasingly Bad Exchange Rates - Thinking About Moving ..

[sfokevin]

Good Math Gentlemen, and no I don't feel the need to defend it. It is what it is and I am quite comfortable with it at the 2 mill. However it's the $8500 just Vaporizing over the year that has me twisted.

I believe that Dr Tarisa at the Bank of Thailand is requiring these transactions to be fully hedged

Edited April 1, 2007 by sfokevin

[KhunMarco]

...snip... I'm currently thinking about Spain. I grew up there and while things changed a lot from back then, the prices on most things are about the same as Thailand right now. You also have the beach and all that, plus better air and no political instability... snip...

Rain man, your statement about prices in Spain struck my curiosity, I think (but feel free to disagree) your estimate is far from reality. Last time I've been to Spain was 2002 and prices were nearly equal to Italy (I'd say - 15-20%) and believe me I can live here with a fifth of what I used to spend in Italy, maintaining approximately the same life style, saving a lot of cash.

I have no idea how you can manage to spend the same amount of money you spend here.

Sure there are areas less expensive than Barcelona or Ibiza , but we are talking way beyond Thailand expenses.

I'm asking because you are not the first guy I hear to say that, and Spain is one of my favorite country.

Do you have in mind a particular area?

Thanks IA

[bingobongo]

Some people do come here for the spirituality and I don't mean cheap bottle of alcohol. Everyone can learn something from some Thai attitudes and Buddhism, particularly letting go of vexation and unnecessary pre-occupation with the minutae of life. Maybe it takes a midlife crisis to realize that all this stupid clinging to previous 'lifestyles' and identities is just another illusion and distraction. I know the happiest faces I've seen, which spring to mind are those with seemingly the least, while there are countless washed up, miserable souls with money, a lot of them, falangs who mope about not getting their expectations satisfied and don't have a clue. As that mop top with the glasses who had been known to chase his own tail, more than a few times, once said 'I just have to let it go'

sounds like laziness and running away from responsibility.....aka midlife crsisis

blind obedience and lack of questioning the status quo are also common Thai attitudes (hence the few rich contol the poor)

thanks, but i prefer to think for myself as opposed to being a turnip

[cobra]

Its not like I'm dying because of the few +15,000 baht I lose every month, but why should I lose it if there's another choice? In the end of the year, it does add up and if you throw the political instability into the pot it almost overflows.

Unfortunately two things that you can't get away from regardless where you go:

Inflation and fluctuation on the dollar.

Assuming you've inflation proofed, (have your next egg at least in some safe, money market account (~ 3%) and draw off that, this addresses the former, the latter is out of your control).

The reality is if you find someplace cheaper to live outside of the LOS it's most likely going to be a shi..hole.

Money aside, if your not happy relocate, nothings cast in stone, you can always return and maybe with a fresher perspective. Good luck in whatever you decide

[ZZZ]

When it's going the wrong way it's very easy to forget that anyone who have lived here for the last ten years have done so on very good terms when it comes to exchange rates.

Ten years ago, 1st April 1997, the exchange rate was US$1 THB 25.96 !!!

[rainman]

I'm not denying that the USD is falling down worldwide right now ..but the problem is its much worse in Thailand than any other countries. Most likely because the Thais are pushing the USD down by themselves. I bet there are a few super-rich Thais buying USD right now and will sell off again when it spikes up with a huge profit ..and I don't blame them. But that's just how it is.

About Spain, I was thinking somewhere south of Valencia and north of Murcia. I realize insurance and the likes are much more expensive than in Thailand. But hey, at least you can pay monthly, not like BUPA or AIA in Thailand who ask for the monthly premiums for my wife and my one year upfront.

[Jimjim]

The baht has dropped a bit recently. Too soon to tell if it will continue to get stronger and stronger.

[Steve Ireland]

Some people do come here for the spirituality and I don't mean cheap bottle of alcohol. Everyone can learn something from some Thai attitudes and Buddhism, particularly letting go of vexation and unnecessary pre-occupation with the minutae of life. Maybe it takes a midlife crisis to realize that all this stupid clinging to previous 'lifestyles' and identities is just another illusion and distraction. I know the happiest faces I've seen, which spring to mind are those with seemingly the least, while there are countless washed up, miserable souls with money, a lot of them, falangs who mope about not getting their expectations satisfied and don't have a clue. As that mop top with the glasses who had been known to chase his own tail, more than a few times, once said 'I just have to let it go'

I couldn't agree more:) When I returned from Thailand the last time I cam to exactly the same conclusion, hence the reason I will arive in Thailand FOR THE LAST TIME on December 28th.

[Tyree D.]

Some people do come here for the spirituality and I don't mean cheap bottle of alcohol. Everyone can learn something from some Thai attitudes and Buddhism, particularly letting go of vexation and unnecessary pre-occupation with the minutae of life. Maybe it takes a midlife crisis to realize that all this stupid clinging to previous 'lifestyles' and identities is just another illusion and distraction. I know the happiest faces I've seen, which spring to mind are those with seemingly the least, while there are countless washed up, miserable souls with money, a lot of them, falangs who mope about not getting their expectations satisfied and don't have a clue. As that mop top with the glasses who had been known to chase his own tail, more than a few times, once said 'I just have to let it go' smile.gif

beautiful but naive. You are believing what you want to believe. I give you one more year until you made a jaded thread here about broken dreams.

[Jet Gorgon]

Maybe it's an anti-farang conspiracy: If we can't drive them out (with new immigration laws), we'll starve them out (by over-valuing the baht).

True, way back in the mid 90s, the baht was trading at 24-25/US$. But, bar beer was Bt30 a bottle, imported wine was 1/4 of current levels, western meals were about Bt30-100, and my rent was Bt3,000. Inflation, luxury goods taxes and excessive farang pricing in some areas have driven up what you now pay.

Guess if you want to stay in LOS with the same monthly comforts now, it's time to hedge or beg the economists and forex traders here to provide some strategies. But, you never know, in a few months time, the baht may fall dramatically and then everyone will wonder why they worried. As for stressing over currency exchange losses, well, in a way it's the same as ruing losses at the casino...if only I'd...

And just think, you could be paying 60% taxes on your gains and getting no recompense on your losses. And having to buy winter coats and coal to heat your home, and abiding by so many rules that you may as well get an extra room for the Big Brother agent...things could be worse.

[bingobongo]

these clowns cant do anything correctly

Thailand Investment Curbs Backfire, Set Stage for Rally in Baht

``The capital controls are supposed to curb the baht's rise but every time they do something stupid it decreases consumption and imports.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

Edited April 1, 2007 by bingobongo

[Boon Mee]

Well, for any y'all nattering nabobs of negivitism re the Baht/USD exchange rate - what's the alternative?

Move to the PI?

Bad food and no culture?

[bingobongo]

i am not negative, in fact i am positive that Thailand will soon be in a very nasty recession

[Nomad97]

I am a Brit but living in the central region 6km outside of the village.

Like a lot of people I am suffering from the baht / pound exchange rate but as I rarely use imported stuff because most of our shopping is done in the village markets it is not as bad as it could be.

I came to live in Thailand as my wife is Thai, we have land and property here, our son is now 2 2/3 and I have absolutely no desire to go and live elsewhere.

We used to drink imported Chivas Regal, went to 100 Pipers 8 year old and now quite happily drink Sangsom for me and Regency brandy for my wife.

We just tighten our belts and live with it.

I was here in 1997 when the baht went from 42/43 to around 90 to the pound and in the last 10 years it has slowly fallen to around the low 70s and been as low as 65.

I will ride it out and eventually it will gain a bit and be back to a reasonable level in the next few months.

Or at least that is what I hope.

What I don't want to see is the baht crashing again as in 1997.

It is good for us farangs, not too bad for around 3% of Thais and disastrous for the rest and for Thailand in general.

My heart and soul is in Thailand and will be until I die and then my spirit will be here forever.

I fully endorse your sentiments. I have been here a few years too and I have seen the Baht/Pound exchange rates rise and fall. I'll keep my fingers crossed that the rate will improve a little in the near future and, in the meantime, cut my cost accordingly. My favourite tipple is Black Label but I guess Sangsom and beer Chang will have to do for the moment.

[bendix]

I certainly wouldn't consider moving for a nominal swing of - what was it rainman said? - 15000 baht a month. By the time you've paid to move to somewhere like Cambodia or Philippines, paid start-up costs etc etc, and got yourself settled in to a significantly less conducive environment, it's likely the exchange rate would have swung back and then you'd be kicking yourself.

Me? I get paid in US dollars too and am taking a significant hit. Mai pen rai. My employer has offered to fix me at my current baht monthly salary. Not a chance - then I'd miss the swing back to 40 baht when it comes over the next twelve months.

Fact is, exchange rates fluctuations are a fact of life for expats. They can work for and against us. Ride it, and have fun!

[LoveDaBlues]

(I just KNEW someone would do that calculation and steer this discussion to Yet Another Sin Sod Debate.)

No, I'm not trying steer it to a debate. I just want to award him the grand prize for paying the highest Sinsod in Thai history; not counting hi-so marriage.

PT Barnum will be the best man I'm sure.

Actually, this makes my paying off of the family loans (much less than 2mill) almost feel like a joyous thing!

I'm in the same camp as Bendix; I feel a swing back to 40 within a year. Gut feeling.

[astral]

A great deal of the problem is to do with the US dollar, not the Thai baht.

The dollar has been steadily sliding down the pan for the last 4 years

against other world currencies.

I suggest you send you comments to your Senator and G.W. Bush.

[chanchao]

> > (I just KNEW someone would do that calculation and steer this discussion to Yet Another Sin Sod Debate.)

> No, I'm not trying steer it to a debate. I just want to award him the grand

> prize for paying the highest Sinsod in Thai history;

LOL, and I *DO* appreciate your efforts.

Anyway, I like people paying high sin-sods. Makes my daughter about the only thing around me that actually goes up in value.

[jayjayjayjay]

I feel ya on that Rain Man. This has been getting me bent out of shape too. When I got engaged to my fiance' and agreed with her father about the Sin Sot arrangement (details not important on this thread) It was back in Dec of 05, we pushed the wedding back so I could be out of Iraq when we are to wed so the new date is in Feb of next year. Sadly I agreed to a amount in THAI Baht, not dollars, so that even if we get married right now I will be spending around $8,500 MORE just to cover the same amount. I'm scared to think what it will be like in 08 when we finally Thai the knot

I am gonna do 3 things,

1) buy investment property in America (perfect time real estate now is a buyers market there for a number of reasons)

2) get a Condo in Dubai to wait it out for another year after we marry to see if the global market smacks the baht down like it needs too.

3) Buy a lil land in Thailand on mortgage with a minimum down payment so I don't loose so much when the baht dose fall.

The following are rough figures. In Dec, 2005 the baht/USD was 41:1. Today 35:1. So based on your above comment (in red):

2,000,000 baht @ 35 = $57,142 USD (today)

2,000,000 baht @ 41 = $48,780 USD (Dec, 2005)

Difference = $ 8,362 USD (roughly the $8,500 from above)

So, you are paying 2,000,000 baht Sinsod? As the thread IS about the bad exchange rate this is not off topic and I'm curious.

If thats true that sooooooo funny

Good Math Gentlemen, and no I don't feel the need to defend it. It is what it is and I am quite comfortable with it at the 2 mill. However it's the $8500 just Vaporizing over the year that has me twisted.

Not going to regret it now, but this is going to hurt like hel_l when it all goes pear shaped!! What comes with the package?

[bendix]

A great deal of the problem is to do with the US dollar, not the Thai baht.

The dollar has been steadily sliding down the pan for the last 4 years

against other world currencies.

I suggest you send you comments to your Senator and G.W. Bush.

This line is always trotted out and while it is true to a point, it's not the whole story. There are two points.

First, the dollar's 'general decline' is not so big nor so universal as some point out.

Second, the baht is strong against EVERY currency.

If you look in the Economist tables you will see that the the dollar has slipped less 2% against the Yen in the last twelve months. It's virtually on parity with the EURO, and has actually strengthened against Sterling and the Canadian Dollar. It buys 1.27 Aussie today, compared to 1.28 twelve months ago. In the AP region, it buys exactly the same number of Singapore dollar today as twelve months ago (1.53) and is up against the Taiwan dollar, Korean Won, Indonesia rupee and India rupee. Against none-Euro European currencies it's stronger or at par against Czech, Hungary, Poland, Russian, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey. It's weakened against the Norwegian kronar.

And elsewhere? Stronger against Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela. On a par or marginally weaker against Brazil and Colombia. It's soared against the South Africa rand.

So . . let's put it in perspective. Is the US dollar really that weak year on year?

Now, consider the Baht. It's at 8 year highs against just about every major currency, including the US, Aussie, Kiwi, Euro, Sterling and Yen.

All of which leads me to believe that this has very little to do with the US economy or any economic fundamentals, and EVERYTHING to do with baht speculation which is likely to pop at any moment.

Edited April 2, 2007 by bendix

[aussiestyle1983]

I feel ya on that Rain Man. This has been getting me bent out of shape too. When I got engaged to my fiance' and agreed with her father about the Sin Sot arrangement (details not important on this thread) It was back in Dec of 05, we pushed the wedding back so I could be out of Iraq when we are to wed so the new date is in Feb of next year. Sadly I agreed to a amount in THAI Baht, not dollars, so that even if we get married right now I will be spending around $8,500 MORE just to cover the same amount. I'm scared to think what it will be like in 08 when we finally Thai the knot

I am gonna do 3 things,

1) buy investment property in America (perfect time real estate now is a buyers market there for a number of reasons)

2) get a Condo in Dubai to wait it out for another year after we marry to see if the global market smacks the baht down like it needs too.

3) Buy a lil land in Thailand on mortgage with a minimum down payment so I don't loose so much when the baht dose fall.

The following are rough figures. In Dec, 2005 the baht/USD was 41:1. Today 35:1. So based on your above comment (in red):

2,000,000 baht @ 35 = $57,142 USD (today)

2,000,000 baht @ 41 = $48,780 USD (Dec, 2005)

Difference = $ 8,362 USD (roughly the $8,500 from above)

So, you are paying 2,000,000 baht Sinsod? As the thread IS about the bad exchange rate this is not off topic and I'm curious.

If thats true that sooooooo funny

Good Math Gentlemen, and no I don't feel the need to defend it. It is what it is and I am quite comfortable with it at the 2 mill. However it's the $8500 just Vaporizing over the year that has me twisted.

Not going to regret it now, but this is going to hurt like hel_l when it all goes pear shaped!! What comes with the package?

From what I gather, you live somewhere else and your Fiance lives in Thailand.........correct?

How much of you 2 Million is going to her Thia husband?

[rainman]

Maybe it's an anti-farang conspiracy: If we can't drive them out (with new immigration laws), we'll starve them out (by over-valuing the baht).

They sure make it look that way, don't they. With the new immigration laws (I wasn't really affected by that), bad exchange rates, increasing prices of imported products, military coup, tsunami (far fetched, I know) and civil war in the south, etc.

[KhunMarco]

From what I gather, you live somewhere else and your Fiance lives in Thailand.........correct?

How much of you 2 Million is going to her Thia husband?

And the award for the coward behind a keyboard post of the year goes to...

[keddy]

Some people do come here for the spirituality and I don't mean cheap bottle of alcohol. Everyone can learn something from some Thai attitudes and Buddhism, particularly letting go of vexation and unnecessary pre-occupation with the minutae of life. Maybe it takes a midlife crisis to realize that all this stupid clinging to previous 'lifestyles' and identities is just another illusion and distraction. I know the happiest faces I've seen, which spring to mind are those with seemingly the least, while there are countless washed up, miserable souls with money, a lot of them, falangs who mope about not getting their expectations satisfied and don't have a clue. As that mop top with the glasses who had been known to chase his own tail, more than a few times, once said 'I just have to let it go' smile.gif

beautiful but naive. You are believing what you want to believe. I give you one more year until you made a jaded thread here about broken dreams.

I don't have any dreams to break because that's the whole point. They are just dreams, something that has never happened and never will, in the form we imagine. Maybe it's you who needs to wake up and take a fresh look. I don't see myself becoming jaded because of some stupid economic preoccupation. I try not to get attached to this game of stupidity and greed which is modern capitalism while acknowledging that I am part of this aspect of the world I don't have take it let it distract me from what's really important. What is important is a path/a koan/a question/ a mystery you have to attempt to discover yourself and let it reveal itself in time. I would also like West Ham United to stay up but that's certainly another story

[bendix]

Maybe it's an anti-farang conspiracy: If we can't drive them out (with new immigration laws), we'll starve them out (by over-valuing the baht).

They sure make it look that way, don't they. With the new immigration laws (I wasn't really affected by that), bad exchange rates, increasing prices of imported products, military coup, tsunami (far fetched, I know) and civil war in the south, etc.

Come on rainman. You're smarter than that.

None of these are anti-farang, except the first which is just a mop up operation. None of the other things you list have anything to do with us.

[Heng]

Me? I get paid in US dollars too and am taking a significant hit. Mai pen rai. My employer has offered to fix me at my current baht monthly salary. Not a chance - then I'd miss the swing back to 40 baht when it comes over the next twelve months.

Fact is, exchange rates fluctuations are a fact of life for expats. They can work for and against us. Ride it, and have fun!

Pretty much my philosophy as well. Ride it, have fun, but be ready for 20 Baht to the US$ as well, just in case.

[aussiestyle1983]

From what I gather, you live somewhere else and your Fiance lives in Thailand.........correct?

How much of you 2 Million is going to her Thia husband?

And the award for the coward behind a keyboard post of the year goes to...

Hey, it is a possibility, and a very common practise done here by lovely Thai girlfriends...................

[KhunMarco]

From what I gather, you live somewhere else and your Fiance lives in Thailand.........correct?

How much of you 2 Million is going to her Thia husband?

And the award for the coward behind a keyboard post of the year goes to...

Hey, it is a possibility, and a very common practise done here by lovely Thai girlfriends...................

Yeah, why don't you ask him face to face uh?

[aussiestyle1983]

KhunMarco

That would be a little bit hard to do given the distance between LOS and the middle East or the USA or where ever he is, wouldn't it? Given the circumstances of his situatation and the ammount he is paying for having he GF, and the fact they are not even in the same country, I actually think it would be a good idea if I or someone sat down and talked to him face to face and made him aware of all the common practises that happen here that he seems to not be aware of. If he is worried about paying the extra 8.5K, he should also be worried about that family he is marrying in to. for that sort of money, im sure the parents could kindly say "hey, this guy is working hard and going to LOVE and take care of our daughter, he can have her for 1.7 instead of 2 mill" rather than making him have to worry about afew hundred thousand baht.

Since you took my comment so seriously I now expect to see you take the comments of others just as serious and post the same smart arse remarks to others...........okay............you will do this now won't you? Especially because you know you can hide behind your computer and not get your arse handed to you in a can

Edited April 2, 2007 by aussiestyle1983

[britmaveric]

Good Math Gentlemen, and no I don't feel the need to defend it. It is what it is and I am quite comfortable with it at the 2 mill. However it's the $8500 just Vaporizing over the year that has me twisted.

Amazing Thailand

If you hadn't offered 2 million in the first place then you wouldn't have to get twisted would you.

:D

Never mind the exchange rate......