Govt launching measure to tame wild baht

[saengd]

23 minutes ago, huberthammer said:

TV should set up a monetary think tank. It seems there are a lot of people with great expertise on TV who seem to be able to address the conundrum of balancing politics, monetary and currency policy. With all the Geniuses living here they left a shortage of brain power back home. Maybe the TV think tank can then help tackle the reversal of the QE in the US, managing monetary issues resulting from BREXIT and help the Swiss National Bank with the burden of the strong Swiss Franc.

 

I feel enlightened by all thoughtful suggestions...

A stunningly brilliant idea but only if we exclude forever the following possible answers to Thailand's economic challenges:

 

- change the government

- sell all the foreign currency reserves

- stop the elites from managing the Baht in order to stay rich

- stop buying tanks and arms and give the money to the poor rural folk

- do more to help farang expat so that they'll want to stay here forever

- open up the borders to all comers and do away with all visa's so that more people will come here

- allow farangs to buy land and houses

 

....and other such helpful economic tips!

 

Maybe we could have a think tank and also a dunk tank, that might work.

 

[saengd]

On 12/25/2019 at 6:54 PM, Monomial said:

How about forcing the Thai banks to actually implement the measures the BOT instituted in November that removed the restrictions on sending money abroad. As of yesterday, I could not find a single bank that was not still applying the old "positive list" rules to anyone wanting to do an outward remittance. 

 

Of course your currency is going to appreciate if you trap people in it by making it easy to buy but difficult to sell. 

I'm not certain but I'm pretty sure those new regulations apply only to Thai citizens and not to foreigners in Thailand, the current BOT policy supports that in so much as it talks about residents and non-residents: https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialMarkets/ForeignExchangeRegulations/FXRegulation/Pages/default.aspx

[AussieBob18]

4 hours ago, fruitman said:

The reason why the baht is so strong compared to the us$ and the euro is that they both do print more money.

And i guess the chinese know that thailand won't do it so that's why they buy baht for billions of $...also because they can see their own recession coming soon and the cardhouse will collapse.

Thailand really needs the good public transport or would you say that bKK has no traffic/pollution issues?

Which rich tourist will come to stinky jammed BKK for a holiday? Plenty of better options on the world which are even much cheaper.

If thailand doesn't act fast the exports and tourism will collapse....that leads to less tax income for the government and the downward spiral has started and can't be fixed.

 

Too little and far too late - the economic crash is coming and there aint nothing they can do to stop it.  All they can do is implement policies to devalue the Baht and soften the blow (like lowering interest rates to 1%).  For those asking why banks have still not allowed easy foreign transfers when the central bank has changed that rule - they know it would open a flood gate that they would not be able to close.

 

 

[BestB]

On 12/25/2019 at 5:59 PM, saengd said:

I seriously doubt it. Unless the underlying cause of the strong baht are tackled, devaluation will only mean more baht for your foreign currency which in turn would mean increased inflows. The net effect of that would be an even stronger baht since demand would increase.

Maybe he knows crash is coming , and instead of being blamed for crashing economy , wants to make it out as if he did it purposely for the benefit of the people ????

[saengd]

29 minutes ago, BestB said:

Maybe he knows crash is coming , and instead of being blamed for crashing economy , wants to make it out as if he did it purposely for the benefit of the people ????

Posters are talking about the forthcoming crash as though it's inevitable and certain, let me just remind folks of a few things:

 

- Exports just came off their highest value level ever, USD 22 bill, per month, now down to USD 19 bill., last seen in 2016.

- Foreign currency reserves are at their highest level ever, USD 214 bill.

- Tourist volumes, if the quoted numbers are even vaguely correct are at a record level, 40 million.

 

Is that what a crash looks like I wonder, hmm, I certainly don't think so!

 

Oh and yes, the US and China just agreed a trade deal that was impacting on Thai exports so that hurdle got cleared away.

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by saengd

[BestB]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

Posters are talking about the forthcoming crash as though it's inevitable and certain, let me just remind folks of a few things:

 

- Exports just came off their highest value level ever, USD 22 bill, per month, now down to USD 19 bill., last seen in 2016.

- Foreign currency reserves are at their highest level ever, USD 214 bill.

- Tourist volumes, if the quoted numbers are even vaguely correct are at a record level, 40 million.

 

Is that what a crash looks like I wonder, hmm, I certainly don't think so!

 

Oh and yes, the US and China just agreed a trade deal that was impacting on Thai exports so that hurdle got cleared away.

 

Really 40 million tourists? You must be getting your numbers from the same pool as TAT, only they managed to get 30 million but you decided to up them a few ????

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, BestB said:

Really 40 million tourists? You must be getting your numbers from the same pool as TAT, only they managed to get 30 million but you decided to up them a few ????

I didn't count them personally but this is what was reported in your country in February:

 

https://thaiembdc.org/2019/02/04/thailand-sets-new-tourism-record-with-over-38-million-arrivals/

[BestB]

22 minutes ago, saengd said:

I didn't count them personally but this is what was reported in your country in February:

 

https://thaiembdc.org/2019/02/04/thailand-sets-new-tourism-record-with-over-38-million-arrivals/

Must be all true then and reports of empty hotels , bars , restaurants and streets are all a lie , Just as daily factory closures, must be due to record high exports ????

[Henryford]

I keep saying it but i will say it again. it's not the Baht that is strong it's the western currencies that are weak - money printing, fiscal deficits etc. Nothing Thailand can do about that.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, Henryford said:

I keep saying it but i will say it again. it's not the Baht that is strong it's the western currencies that are weak - money printing, fiscal deficits etc. Nothing Thailand can do about that.

The Dollar Index is just under par: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

 

And which ever you cut it, THB is strong and has been strong all year, it's been the number one performing currency in 2019 whether we like it or not.

[saengd]

What's really worrying about these threads about THB and the Thai economy is they are an almost identical  repeat of what was said on TVF over ten years ago when the Baht was getting stronger and everyone was in denial. At 70 they said it would soon get better, the same at 60, 50 and now at 40 the same things are being said.....back then posters said the economy was going to crash, the housing market would lead the way along with non-performing loans because there was too much debt around....banks would fail they said. And tourists would stop visiting, because, because, because!

 

I wonder how many posters with their glib throw away comments have stopped to think about how they would be effected and what they would do if the Baht just kept on getting stronger, 35, 30 or even 25 baht per Pound. It's a scary thought but to be honest, there's no evidence I can see to suggest those things are not possible within five or ten years. Perhaps it's worth thinking about because ten years or so ago, posters didn't think 40 was possible and loads of them had their lives changed for them as a result and that's not fun in retirement and with a Thai family here.

[BestB]

15 minutes ago, saengd said:

What's really worrying about these threads about THB and the Thai economy is they are an almost identical  repeat of what was said on TVF over ten years ago when the Baht was getting stronger and everyone was in denial. At 70 they said it would soon get better, the same at 60, 50 and now at 40 the same things are being said.....back then posters said the economy was going to crash, the housing market would lead the way along with non-performing loans because there was too much debt around....banks would fail they said. And tourists would stop visiting, because, because, because!

 

I wonder how many posters with their glib throw away comments have stopped to think about how they would be effected and what they would do if the Baht just kept on getting stronger, 35, 30 or even 25 baht per Pound. It's a scary thought but to be honest, there's no evidence I can see to suggest those things are not possible within five or ten years. Perhaps it's worth thinking about because ten years or so ago, posters didn't think 40 was possible and loads of them had their lives changed for them as a result and that's not fun in retirement and with a Thai family here.

10 years ago country was managed by a businessman not an army general and mates with zero experience .

 

10 years ago, factories were not closing down and government was not doing tv marathons to raise money for flood victims. 
 

10 years ago, Vietnam was not a competition , neither was Cambodia.

 

[Chazar]

Send  fatboy Thai  Ital out ,  he'll  tame that wild  baht ............booom  booom ...........aroi  na

[Chazar]

22 minutes ago, saengd said:

What's really worrying about these threads about THB and the Thai economy is they are an almost identical  repeat of what was said on TVF over ten years ago when the Baht was getting stronger and everyone was in denial. At 70 they said it would soon get better, the same at 60, 50 and now at 40 the same things are being said.....back then posters said the economy was going to crash, the housing market would lead the way along with non-performing loans because there was too much debt around....banks would fail they said. And tourists would stop visiting, because, because, because!

 

I wonder how many posters with their glib throw away comments have stopped to think about how they would be effected and what they would do if the Baht just kept on getting stronger, 35, 30 or even 25 baht per Pound. It's a scary thought but to be honest, there's no evidence I can see to suggest those things are not possible within five or ten years. Perhaps it's worth thinking about because ten years or so ago, posters didn't think 40 was possible and loads of them had their lives changed for them as a result and that's not fun in retirement and with a Thai family here.

Some  posters  derive their  incomes  from more than one  currency to hedge against this  kind  of klap, for me it can get to 1-1 wont  affect me.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, huberthammer said:

Maybe the TV think tank can then help tackle the reversal of the QE in the US, managing monetary issues resulting from BREXIT and help the Swiss National Bank with the burden of the strong Swiss Franc.

 

I feel enlightened by all thoughtful suggestions...

No reversal of QE in the US with trillion dollar budget deficits as far as the eye can see... more QE is coming... 

 

Brexit... the final nail in the British coffin... 

 

The SNB is doing fine, printing Francs as much as needed in order to keep their value in check, and buying assets with the foreign currencies that keep on piling in its banks, despite the negative interests... 

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Too little and far too late - the economic crash is coming and there aint nothing they can do to stop it.  All they can do is implement policies to devalue the Baht and soften the blow (like lowering interest rates to 1%).  For those asking why banks have still not allowed easy foreign transfers when the central bank has changed that rule - they know it would open a flood gate that they would not be able to close.

 

 

There is no reason for the Thai economy to crash, at least by itself. 

 

But it will be severely affected after the crash of the major economies, following the latter insane policies... 

[Brunolem]

48 minutes ago, saengd said:

What's really worrying about these threads about THB and the Thai economy is they are an almost identical  repeat of what was said on TVF over ten years ago when the Baht was getting stronger and everyone was in denial. At 70 they said it would soon get better, the same at 60, 50 and now at 40 the same things are being said.....back 

 

 

Well... more than 10 years ago, and for a very long time, the baht was at 25 against the USD... and that was at a time when the US was not fully committed to destroying its currency... so there is probably more way for the baht to go... up! 

[AussieBob18]

46 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

There is no reason for the Thai economy to crash, at least by itself. 

But it will be severely affected after the crash of the major economies, following the latter insane policies... 

There was an excellent article written recently in a source I cannot quote - but in essence the journalist showed why the history of all SEAsia economies that grow too quickly (thereby enriching the rich) always crash eventually when the reality of an over-inflated currency and over-inflated economy meet the reality of global economics. There are many reasons why the Thai economy will crash - and very few why they will not.  When is the only unknown - but I can tell you this with certainty - all the Thai Govt indicators will advise everything is fine and growth is 'meeting expectations'. 

 

I have never seen an economic downturn that was predicted by all the 'generic experts' - and even more so for a crash.  I suggest you study the history of economic crashes and downturns - they are caused by both excessive debt AND excessive growth.  Thailand has had one from excessive debt (1997) and is now heading head first at speed for an economic crash from excessive growth - the main indicator of this is the extremely over-valued Baht. Your analysis of historical exchange rates is false.  Aside from a period following the GFC in 2008 - the Baht has never been at this level against all the world's main currencies.

 

 

[saengd]

3 hours ago, BestB said:

10 years ago country was managed by a businessman not an army general and mates with zero experience .

 

10 years ago, factories were not closing down and government was not doing tv marathons to raise money for flood victims. 
 

10 years ago, Vietnam was not a competition , neither was Cambodia.

 

Whoosh was the noise you heard as the point flew over your head by quite some margin!

 

Oh dear, try this:

 

"Based on a Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey for 2016-17, Thailand’s established-business ownership rate of 27.5 per cent is the second highest among 65 countries polled.

 

Second, many Thais are undeterred by fear of business failures; in that category, the country ranked third highest of the 65 countries covered by the survey".

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30310947

 

As I recall, something like 4,500 factories open and then close in Thailand every year, there's nothing new about that whatsoever since day one.

 

 

 

 

[saengd]

3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Well... more than 10 years ago, and for a very long time, the baht was at 25 against the USD... and that was at a time when the US was not fully committed to destroying its currency... so there is probably more way for the baht to go... up! 

The Baht was hard pegged to USD at 25 pre. the 1997 crash, after the crash it was allowed to float, hence the significant difference in the rate pre. 1997 and post 1997. But all the stats I have seen suggest THB could easily achieve the pre-crash rate in the short/medium term.

Edited December 27, 2019 by saengd

[BestB]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

Whoosh was the noise you heard as the point flew over your head by quite some margin!

 

Oh dear, try this:

 

"Based on a Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey for 2016-17, Thailand’s established-business ownership rate of 27.5 per cent is the second highest among 65 countries polled.

 

Second, many Thais are undeterred by fear of business failures; in that category, the country ranked third highest of the 65 countries covered by the survey".

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30310947

 

As I recall, something like 4,500 factories open and then close in Thailand every year, there's nothing new about that whatsoever since day one.

 

 

 

 

I think it’s clear by now you have very little connection or understanding of Thailand . Thai government and ministries release statements and figures based on either thin air or wishful thinking .

 

if you only follow thai visa , you would have noticed weekly contradictions coming out of different sources.

 

even different figures from different ministries of the sane government .

 

facts are tourism is nowhere near the released figures, most places are empty and have been empty for months.

 

factories closing down or laying off thousands of staff, including big boys like LG, Samsung and the rest. Car sales are down. 

Household debt at its highest levels ever.

 

claiming exports hit record high is insane, believing it is beyond insane. 

[saengd]

31 minutes ago, BestB said:

I think it’s clear by now you have very little connection or understanding of Thailand . Thai government and ministries release statements and figures based on either thin air or wishful thinking .

 

if you only follow thai visa , you would have noticed weekly contradictions coming out of different sources.

 

even different figures from different ministries of the sane government .

 

facts are tourism is nowhere near the released figures, most places are empty and have been empty for months.

 

factories closing down or laying off thousands of staff, including big boys like LG, Samsung and the rest. Car sales are down. 

Household debt at its highest levels ever.

 

claiming exports hit record high is insane, believing it is beyond insane. 

I've heard a similar story many times and I'm certain I'll continue to hear it many times over in the years to come, yawn, not a single piece of hard data, just loads of anecdotal quasi facts, it's as bad as the Brexit arguments, all emotion and no fact.

 

Record levels of debt of almost any kind always shock because they are so high, folks simply couldn't imagine those levels would be tolerated without an Armageddon type event. Look at house prices in the West, look at national debts, all super high and every year they continue to shock, it's business as usual (BAU)!

 

Factory closures....we've talked about that, believe it or not, it's your choice, it's BAU.

 

Different figures and contradictions....and? so? where do you think you are, in the West in a Big Four accounting firm!

 

Tourism and Exports....again, we've talked about those things, believe it or not, it's your choice.

 

I would only add that if I lived in Thailand AND didn't believe all the things that you don't believe I would have to question why I was living there in the first place. And if I lived in Thailand and didn't really understand the economy of the place that I live, especially the currency and the reasons for its strength/weakness, I'd think that's pretty foolish, but hey ho.

 

Happy New Year

 

 

 

[Inn Between]

On 12/24/2019 at 3:34 PM, webfact said:

The government has expected the economy to improve in the first quarter next year after its launch of short-term, medium-term and long-term stimulus packages.

 

Prayut added that the government has prepared a host of measures to cope with employee layoffs at some companies and shutdowns at others.

The economy will improve, so the gov't has prepared a host of measures to cope with people losing their jobs and companies closing? What am I missing? There is no logic to connect the two situations.  

 

I see a vast contrast between those two paragraphs, and it seems to indicate that either the person writing that stuff didn't have a clue or the person providing the info didn't have a clue, or perhaps they were both happily clueless together with no regard for making any sense.

 

It seems that not making sense when talking about ways to weaken the baht is the only consistency the gov't has had with the situation.  They really do not seem to have any real ideas or perhaps as many have indicated, any desire. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Inn Between

[Monomial]

11 hours ago, saengd said:

I'm not certain but I'm pretty sure those new regulations apply only to Thai citizens and not to foreigners in Thailand, the current BOT policy supports that in so much as it talks about residents and non-residents: https://www.bot.or.th/English/FinancialMarkets/ForeignExchangeRegulations/FXRegulation/Pages/default.aspx

 

I never said anything about foreigners. They banks aren't using the new BOT regulations for Thai citizens. They are still applying the same old positive restriction list for Thais, foreigners, Klingons, unicorns and everyone else who wants to engage in outward remittance.

 

The policy will have zero effect if the banks aren't forced to update their own procedures and retrain their staff.

 

[BestB]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

I've heard a similar story many times and I'm certain I'll continue to hear it many times over in the years to come, yawn, not a single piece of hard data, just loads of anecdotal quasi facts, it's as bad as the Brexit arguments, all emotion and no fact.

 

Record levels of debt of almost any kind always shock because they are so high, folks simply couldn't imagine those levels would be tolerated without an Armageddon type event. Look at house prices in the West, look at national debts, all super high and every year they continue to shock, it's business as usual (BAU)!

 

Factory closures....we've talked about that, believe it or not, it's your choice, it's BAU.

 

Different figures and contradictions....and? so? where do you think you are, in the West in a Big Four accounting firm!

 

Tourism and Exports....again, we've talked about those things, believe it or not, it's your choice.

 

I would only add that if I lived in Thailand AND didn't believe all the things that you don't believe I would have to question why I was living there in the first place. And if I lived in Thailand and didn't really understand the economy of the place that I live, especially the currency and the reasons for its strength/weakness, I'd think that's pretty foolish, but hey ho.

 

Happy New Year

 

 

 

Again just going with lots of waffle and then last sentence , IF you lived in Thailand and that sentence alone pretty much invalidates every arguement you put forward . But when you do live in Thailand , then you can come back and tell me again how things are going . When you learn Thai and start to read thai media , it will even be better ????

[BestB]

4 hours ago, Inn Between said:

The economy will improve, so the gov't has prepared a host of measures to cope with people losing their jobs and companies closing? What am I missing? There is no logic to connect the two situations.  

 

I see a vast contrast between those two paragraphs, and it seems to indicate that either the person writing that stuff didn't have a clue or the person providing the info didn't have a clue, or perhaps they were both happily clueless together with no regard for making any sense.

 

It seems that not making sense when talking about ways to weaken the baht is the only consistency the gov't has had with the situation.  They really do not seem to have any real ideas or perhaps as many have indicated, any desire. 

 

 

As you said and I noted earlier , government has lots of measures but not a single mention of even 1. 
 

multinationals laid off 30000 staff in the past 6 months, what did government do to assist?

 

recent floods in isaan, what did government do besides running 24 hour money raising marathon? But then claiming government has the money just wanted to get all thai involved ????????????

 

 

[saengd]

3 hours ago, BestB said:

Again just going with lots of waffle and then last sentence , IF you lived in Thailand and that sentence alone pretty much invalidates every arguement you put forward . But when you do live in Thailand , then you can come back and tell me again how things are going . When you learn Thai and start to read thai media , it will even be better ????

I do live in Thailand and have lived here full time since 2004, you just didn't understand the way the sentence as written.

[saengd]

3 hours ago, BestB said:

As you said and I noted earlier , government has lots of measures but not a single mention of even 1. 
 

multinationals laid off 30000 staff in the past 6 months, what did government do to assist?

 

recent floods in isaan, what did government do besides running 24 hour money raising marathon? But then claiming government has the money just wanted to get all thai involved ????????????

 

 

Do I detect that you want government to hold everybody's hand and be there with handouts every time bad things happen just like back home, it don't work that way here, thankfully.....you lose your job you can't go down and sign on and collect benefits for six months, unemployment and food stamps et al. you gotta put on your big boy pants and go out and get a  new one! 

[saengd]

This is the BOT business sentiment survey Nov. 2019, it's important for a number of reasons, mostly because it describes sentiment under a number of headings. It's worth noting that BOT describes the US/China trade war talks as being responsible for much of the current downturn. Note also the difference between the today view and the 3 month hence view.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/EconomicIndices/DocLib_EconomicIndices/BSI_EN_Nov19_kop861bu.pdf

[saengd]

Here's another useful index to watch for those wanting to try and gauge Thailand's manufacturing productivity, it's  available on Bloomberg every day, just cut and paste the code.

 

If you look at the chart or via the link below you'll see the index went seriously negative just as the trade war broke, once the US and China solve that problem the index will rise once again and this almost certainly accounts for increased optimism shown in the earlier business confidence report..

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/industrial-production

 

THMPIN2Y:IND

Thailand Production Index NSA YoY

-8.30