Thailand faces a reality check

[yellowboat]

The reality is Saigon is becoming more interesting than Bangkok.  There is a real vibe in fun and business, neither exists in Bangkok at this time.   The only thing Vietnam expats miss about Thailand? Their Thai girlfriends. 

[thurien]

19 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

why should "they" (TAT i.a.) do this? they just build a smoke screen as gigantic as possible for multiple reasons (politics, commercial gains, entertainment industry etc.). This country is all about "hot air", just let them puff away...

[outsider]

I travel to Malaysia and Singapore for work at least once a month - that's 12 arrivals in a year from me alone. Geez... if these guys get any further from reality, they WILL fall off the surface of the earth. Yes, trust them to be capable of doing THAT.

Edited January 18, 2020 by outsider

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, mickey rat said:

No telling how much the air pollution is going to effect these numbers.

It wont. How many tourist brochures tht you have seen carry articles on current air pollution. They want sell you a holiday, not put you off

[saengd]

10 minutes ago, thurien said:

why should "they" (TAT i.a.) do this? they just build a smoke screen as gigantic as possible for multiple reasons (politics, commercial gains, entertainment industry etc.). This country is all about "hot air", just let them puff away...

If all 145,000 Western expats living in Thailand, exited and reentered Thailand three times a year that would do what for TAT's numbers, reduce them by 0.5 million! Please, get real!

[allenberg]

2 hours ago, jaiyen said:

No it won't. Many countries have a 30 day visa exempt agreement. I live in Australia and have been to Thailand nearly 40 times, never with a visa as we only stay for 3 or 4 weeks.

Simple: include those arriving visa exempt...

[Brunolem]

19 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

And how many of those people are counted multiple times because they travel for work?

And don't forget the tens of thousands of Malaysians who cross the border every week-end or so, to enjoy the Thai life and beaches...

[Barry343]

19 hours ago, madmitch said:

And see a drop in the numbers? No chance!

There are a number of countries who do not require a visa if you depart with-in 30 days.

 

[Jaxxper]

20 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Because it would give them a more accurate number...555

[Derek Siam]

Normal Thai culture ignore it/lie and it might really be the truth total bull about tourist number they have been doing it for years and now its unfolding.

[dallen52]

20 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

Exactly. 

One year I had 14 sets of stamps when working for Ford on the Ranger.

Even after retirement and the last two years, I have had 13 sets of stamps due to family issues etc.

 

Well picked up..

[Chongalulu]

54 minutes ago, saengd said:

But simple arithmetic rules

There’s their problem,right there ???? 

[madmitch]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

People in transit do not get counted for TAT figures, neither do land crossings, I posted the AOT airplane traffic stats. from 2018 which seem to corroborate TAT numbers.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Of course they must include land crossings. All the Malaysians for their overnight Hat Yai trips; border runners to Cambodia and Myanmar; they're all counted.

 

Don't forget the airport figures include Thai nationals.

[Thian]

20 hours ago, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

And how long do the tourists stay these days? The Chinese/Indians stay a few days while the westerners stay 10-20 days in places like Bali...

[spidermike007]

They will continue to get more Indian tourists. But, as with the vast majority of Chinese, it will be lower class, and lower middle class tourists. Thailand just cannot attract higher end tourists anymore. The focus on quantity over quality will continue to erode the nation on countless levels. More is rarely better. It just lowers the quality of life for nearly everyone, creates more congestion, more smog, more traffic, longer lines at immigration, and makes life difficult, especially in the big cities. There are countless things the government could be doing, if they wanted to attract the high quality tourists, and go for quality over quantity. Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax. Instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. Beyond inane. 

 

Quantity over quality is never a good thing, unless you are selling one dollar items at a swap meet. It just lowers the quality of the experience for all.

 

Sorry to say, but the high spending tourists are lost for good. They WILL NOT come back to Thailand, for a dozen different reasons. And places like Pattaya, Phuket and Samui will continue to go downhill. So, the goons at the TAT continue to pursue ever higher numbers, regardless of the noxious air, unbelievable congestion on the roads, and woeful service at the airports, that this policy only exacerbates. 

 

 

[shackleton]

Agree with the person who mentioned about the crowds at Chaeng Wattana

When I went it was packed same in the Thai embassy in Laos 

Never mind the arrivals and departures at the airports here

Still plenty of tourists no matter what numbers are quoted

 

[Elkski]

The numbers are really not important.   They need to somehow calculate this into $ spent.  They should also track things like if people will likely return or will they promote or trash Thailand  with friends and family and social  media.  

They should ask what are positive and negative  memories.  

[Thingamabob]

The numbers change from day to day.

[ParkerN]

I doubt the dawning of reality has very much to do with strength or otherwise of the Thai baht; which is doubtless been strong beyond its fundamentals for a while.

 

We must consider that the forecasts produced by TAT have for quite some time been unrealistic/dishonest, and that everybody in the government knows this and has benefited from the deception.

 

Tourism tends to go in cycles; a group of destinations will be popular this year, less popular in five years. Many European tourist destinations have discovered this to their chagrin in recent years. Thailand is just another victim, but in the case of Thailand they thought that there was some divine right to being a popular tourist destination, and this became all mixed up with the national hagiography, which is largely a series of fairytales.

 

So reality has dawned and there is a clear contrast between the predictions of the tourist agency in Thailand and in more modest predictions beginning now to emerge. There needs to be some serious naval-gazing going on in government, but there won't be, it isn't the Thai way. For this reason the experience by Thailand of the coming downturn is likely to be painful.

 

Still, Thais know best.

 

Sadly, Thailand appears destined to have a very difficult time in the next few years. In one way or another.

 

[Xonax]

1 hour ago, Skallywag said:

Pattaya "tourist" area is only so big.  The idea that the TAT wants to increase the number of vacationers every year just makes for too many people occupying the same limited space.  Best to develop and promote alternate areas if you want continued growth in tourism is my opinion.  The number of tourists has already more than doubled in the last 10 years.  Why is that not enough?  What is a sustainable number? 

In my whole life, I have always stopped visiting places, when they have become too crowded and commercial. So when Thailand keeps building new resorts and hotels in the same areas, in order to attract more tourists, they are at the same time scaring many of the initial tourists away.

Edited January 18, 2020 by Xonax

[SupermarineS6B]

More lies than a cheap Chinese watch........  But there's better on the horizon......https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51148303

[PEE TEE]

For those who have been here for many years can see the decline in visitors and the closure of many small, and not so small businesses. Especially  in the resort locations 

[rickudon]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

People in transit do not get counted for TAT figures, neither do land crossings, I posted the AOT airplane traffic stats. from 2018 which seem to corroborate TAT numbers.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Interesting stats. If you look at the number of passengers, International arrivals are up about 7%, and domestic maybe 3%. What was telling is that most arrivals were up from Asian airports (except Hong Kong and Singapore, both basically similar to previous year, but big falls (7%) for those travelling from Dubai (Transit hub for many European tourists).  This tells you Europeans have decided Thailand doesn't provide the quality of experience it used too. The 'new' Asian tourists have little experience of other countries to compare Thailand with.

 

It would be interesting to find out how many days the average tourist spends in Thailand - i bet it is falling. The long stay visitor is being replaced by the 5-7 day  short break Asian.

[Burma Bill]

21 hours ago, Roy Baht said:

Arrivals also include people who change planes on the way to Vietnam.

And Cambodia!

[Xonax]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

And don't forget the tens of thousands of Malaysians who cross the border every week-end or so, to enjoy the Thai life and beaches...

Aren't they tourists??

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Burma Bill said:

And Cambodia!

No, those people are called transit passengers, not arrivals.

[TEFLKrabi]

I imagine every country does the same thing, so the surrounding countries are also boosting their figures when we do visa runs. It’s not just Thailand. 

[saengd]

46 minutes ago, madmitch said:

Of course they must include land crossings. All the Malaysians for their overnight Hat Yai trips; border runners to Cambodia and Myanmar; they're all counted.

 

Don't forget the airport figures include Thai nationals.

You say "must" as though there's some empirical and compelling reason why, care to explain?

 

This aspect has been covered many times on TVF, if you look at the AOT report you'll see the numbers correlate to higher than TAT's figures. And since most land border traffic comprises mostly traders and merchants rather than tourists it would be silly to try and include them.

 

I agree the report does not distinguish between Thais and foreigners.

[fhickson]

was thinking of commenting on op's issue but consultant fees are quite high. when i'm paid i'll figure it out.

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

People in transit do not get counted for TAT figures, neither do land crossings, I posted the AOT airplane traffic stats. from 2018 which seem to corroborate TAT numbers.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Ah, the voice of reason. I'm with you mate, but there's little in the way of reason to be had here.

 

China is on 'Little New Year' as of today, the time when businesses start to wind down and people start to move before the main event. No doubt the 20m people taking overseas holiday will all be packing into Da Nang.............