If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[Lacessit]

I can't say if the OP's premises are right or wrong. What I can say is condo landlords in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai are pleading for tenants. Long-term stayers are disappearing like a sausage down a soi dog's mouth, even the shorter-term tenants of a month or so have shrunk. Many restaurants are closing for lunch, too few customers and too many overheads.

The Chinese and Indians the Thais are pinning their hopes on are fickle. One bad bit of publicity involving them, and they stay away in droves.

I'm predicting a property bust in CM and CR. Don't know what that would do to the wider Thai economy. The Thai gold price seems to be a straw in the wind.

 

[saengd]

6 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I can't say if the OP's premises are right or wrong. What I can say is condo landlords in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai are pleading for tenants. Long-term stayers are disappearing like a sausage down a soi dog's mouth, even the shorter-term tenants of a month or so have shrunk. Many restaurants are closing for lunch, too few customers and too many overheads.

The Chinese and Indians the Thais are pinning their hopes on are fickle. One bad bit of publicity involving them, and they stay away in droves.

I'm predicting a property bust in CM and CR. Don't know what that would do to the wider Thai economy. The Thai gold price seems to be a straw in the wind.

 

Restaurants that close for lunch, what's that all about.... sorry closed for lunch, back in one hour! ????

Edited January 23, 2020 by saengd

[ChaiyaTH]

Interesting how it is always about wether Expats would impact the bigger picture economy or not. As obvious, it would not be significant. 
The majority of Thais make just as little impact on the economy if they died or left over night. Does that mean it is desirable? 

 

The real question is, why compare to that? To justify poor behaviour against this group? To justify unreasonable visa requirements? Nonsense topic by OP if you ask me. Also, a lot of damage to GDP is yet to come, as a lot depends on the real estate business.

They expected growing numbers of expats before as those are the only people who potentially fill up all the empty condo units and rent them. It is just, that they are owned by so few super rich people, they do not have to care or be a in rush / worry about the lack of tenants but obviously on the long run, real estate is useless and worthless without paying tenants. All the small and indirect things have a much bigger impact on economy.

Without expats, you could also state, many huge companies and automotive industries, to not even come to TH at all, which is suddenly a much bigger impact than just the salaries those farang board members get. They depend on foreign expats running the companies, without them, they would not be here.

Last but not least, there are enough expats to say the entire population of Chiang Mai is a foreigner / expat. To then say it is nothing if suddenly lost, one might want to think again. But if only comparing it to GDP you can make it seem like nothing again too.

Edited January 23, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[henry2109]

I do not quite understand your reasoning. If all the expat left the country, the real damage to Thailand would not consist of the withdrawel of the bank deposits. As you said, it is mouse <deleted> compared to all assets or to all remaining bank deposits.

 

The bigger damage - althoug still managable for the country - would be the lost ongoing income stream for the economy.

 

When I take your number of expats, 200000, and assume that the average expat spends 100000 Baht a month for himself and family, that is 240 Billion Baht per year.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, henry2109 said:

 

The bigger damage - althoug still managable for the country - would be the lost ongoing income stream for the economy.

 

When I take your number of expats, 200000, and assume that the average expat spends 100000 Baht a month for himself and family, that is 240 Billion Baht per year.

Perhaps read the OP again, you seem to have not understood its premise, not to mention your math is all wonky.

[BobBKK]

5 hours ago, Denim said:

Yes, but if I leave the local female population will be devastated.

 

Everything will grind to a halt.

grind no more indeed!

[Matzzon]

59 minutes ago, saengd said:

Too funny, have you ever been to Chiang Mai, the bar girl population here totals about fourteen, on a good day.

I can see that you are right init keeping count, but it´s still same, right? ????????

[varun]

Slight oversimplification here - it's not that simple.

 

If there is an exodus of foreign investment and the (foreign) human capital associated with it,

that will definitely have an impact in the long-term, no question.

 

On the other hand, an exodus of retirees and/or husbands on Non-O, supporting Noi and the extended family in baan nok Isaan / Nakhon nowhere will frankly, not make the slightest difference, nor will the Thai govt give a hoot about it.

 

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Haven't made it once yet, patience. It's 'oops,' by the way.

 

I said: The bar scene and Thai society will suffer minimal disruption without expat patrons. I really can't put it any clearer.  This is the third time I've said it and you still ramble about me not understanding. I think you'll find it's you who is not understanding. C'est vrai?

Now you can take your C'est vrai and Capisce and bother somebody else. This forum is in english. Have a nice day, Mr Bert.

[henry2109]

27 minutes ago, saengd said:

Perhaps read the OP again, you seem to have not understood its premise, not to mention your math is all wonky.

Thanks, I read the OP.

 

The GDP does not suffer when sombody withdraws his bank deposit, nor does it suffer when somebody sells his house or car.

So the whole "5 % GDP"-drop is a false assumption.

 

Would it hurt the economy if all the expats left at once? Shure. But the biggest effects came from the lost steady inome flow.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Matzzon said:

I can see that you are right init keeping count, but it´s still same, right? ????????

No it's not the same at all, there is no red light district or bar scene in Chiang Mai any more, just a short street that some tourists visit, I've not even driven down it in fifteen years. You want bar girls, go to Pattaya or Lower Suckie.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, henry2109 said:

Thanks, I read the OP.

 

The GDP does not suffer when sombody withdraws his bank deposit, nor does it suffer when somebody sells his house or car.

So the whole "5 % GDP"-drop is a false assumption.

 

Would it hurt the economy if all the expats left at once? Shure. But the biggest effects came from the lost steady inome flow.

The assumption in the OP is that the banked money is spent and then replenished each year, the deposit represents cash flow.

[Tulak]

37 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I can see that you are right init keeping count, but it´s still same, right? ????????

Every time I go to Thailand I'm also "right init keeping count"

It's fun!

[Matzzon]

4 minutes ago, Tulak said:

Every time I go to Thailand I'm also "right init keeping count"

It's fun!

Thanks for sharing after only a couple of days, Mr Tulak. That´s very brave and a big step forward.

[Matzzon]

40 minutes ago, saengd said:

No it's not the same at all, there is no red light district or bar scene in Chiang Mai any more, just a short street that some tourists visit, I've not even driven down it in fifteen years. You want bar girls, go to Pattaya or Lower Suckie.

When did I say that I want bar girls? Sorry, but Suckie is something closer to you. You seem to wear the circle with an S here. ????????

[Felt 35]

6 hours ago, Roy Baht said:

Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats in Thailand,

If we all paid tax on that mentioned million how do we do against 200xxx,- of the locals then????

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Felt 35 said:

If we all paid tax on that mentioned million how do we do against 200xxx,- of the locals then????

Oooooo, superiority complex, ugly!

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

Now you can take your C'est vrai and Capisce and bother somebody else. This forum is in english. Have a nice day, Mr Bert.

But I'm a European citizen. That's a little xenophobic, no es asi?

 

Well until 31st Janvier, sorry, January anyway.

 

Anyway, I'm glad we agreed that I'm right.

[Traubert]

13 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

You are very good at ppfffffft. I guess that is the normal word for you to use to replace that you actually are totally lost.

 

Everyone? Yeah it´s you talking about everyone, when you state 99%. Very close to 100%, right? Or maybe there is more is your lost world. 

Also all the short repeating replies with the same meaning, shows clearly that this is different subjects that you do not want to go further into. That´s usually a sign of beeing afraid to develop a discussion and present something you really know as a fact.

At least she answered your questions. You haven't answered one of hers.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Traubert

[BRUFC]

6 hours ago, Pravda said:

 

But... but.... how many people will lose face?

 

Remember 1997?

 

Probably not as you are not even Thai ????

I think you're referring to Yinn here? If so, let's assume, for the purposes of my post, she is a Thai woman. Somewhere, among her many posts I think she's said she's approx mid 20's ( years old). So, if anything of what she's said is true, (Thai, female, mid 20's)  she's unlikely to remember 1997 particularly.

She may remember 1997 ( I assume you mean in a financial meaning?) as perhaps her mum putting her hair in pigtails for school, or to take your meaning... as a fake Thai ( read elderly farang continuing a very, very good spoof now for months) for some financial reason. I was in UK then, as a mature man. I don't remember anything about that year.

[brokenbone]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

The assumption in the OP is that the banked money is spent and then replenished each year, the deposit represents cash flow.

from OP "the Thai economy would suffer a one time hit equal to 5% of GDP"

 

its 5% gdp every year without competition

jackpot on lottery every year, why isnt it me ?

Edited January 23, 2020 by brokenbone

[saengd]

15 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

from OP "the Thai economy would suffer a one time hit equal to 5% of GDP"

 

its 5% gdp every year without competition

jackpot on lottery every year, why isnt it me ?

....which of course is not replaced if all expats were to leave, not that hard to comprehend.

[Matzzon]

50 minutes ago, Traubert said:

At least she answered your questions. You haven't answered one of hers.

You must be totally diluted! What I did was an argumentative reply to her first post, and then I get short half ar5ed replies created to avoid a discussion about the subjects, which I also confronted.

The big question is why you think you have a part in that. Do you somehow, like me, believe that Yinn can´t produce answers for herself? The difference is that you come running like a knight in shining armour, to defend. Like always, you were not very well read in, though. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Matzzon

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

You must be totally diluted! What I did was an argumentative reply to her first post, and then I get short half ar5ed replies created to avoid a discussion about the subjects, which I also confronted.

The big question is why you think you have a part in that. Do you somehow, like me, believe that Yinn can´t produce answers for herself? The difference is that you come running like a knight in shining armour, to defend. Like always, you were not very well read in, though. 

You're just argumentative, there's nothing constructive or useful in what you have to say, you're just another poster who must have the last word, useful or not.

[Matzzon]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

You're just argumentative, there's nothing constructive or useful in what you have to say, you're just another poster who must have the last word, useful or not.

That´s what a forum is for. It´s also called discussion board. However, I will leave it here with you. I am sure you are going to try to get the last word.

[Traubert]

19 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

You must be totally diluted! What I did was an argumentative reply to her first post, and then I get short half ar5ed replies created to avoid a discussion about the subjects, which I also confronted.

The big question is why you think you have a part in that. Do you somehow, like me, believe that Yinn can´t produce answers for herself? The difference is that you come running like a knight in shining armour, to defend. Like always, you were not very well read in, though. 

Au contere mon ami. Never been weakened in water in my whole life. Honest injun. Not even a bit of me, let alone all.

 

I wasn't talking about Yinn's answers. I said you hadn't answered any of hers. "Cos you haven't.

 

Didn't you say up the thread that it's a public forum where the OP posts his thoughts and we all  comment? Or was that me?

 

No matter. I'm part of 'all' while I'm still allowed on here.

[CNXexpat]

4 hours ago, Matzzon said:

You see, when I quote you there is nothing written in your post. That´s because you went against the rules and wrote in my post.
 

However, you seem to be one classy guy. Keep up the good style.

Regarding the bar scene. Are there bars in CM? Yes. Are there bargirls in CM? Yes. That makes it kinda same, right?

 

Yes, a lot of restauarants would have to close. That´s a fact.

When you post many expats, you are talking of about 10-20%

100% of all I know. One guy is married with a lawyer, one with a doctor, one with a high manager at Central, one with a Lady from a wealthy family and so on. I guess more are in a relationship with women from wealthier families than you can imagine. Not all for sure.

 

No bar scene in Chiang Mai, sure. Forgot your glasses in your home country?

If you start with a personal question I reply with one: do you forgot your reading comprehension in your home country or what is so difficult to understand at the sentence "in Chiang Mai by example doesn´t exist a bar scene like in Pattaya"?

I never said all restaurants serving western food. Just that it will have an impact.

Yes, you never said it - and I never wrote that you said it. What´s your point?

You said "A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close" and I said, that I don´t think that a lot have to close without expats. That less expats will have an impact/effect is another thing what I haven´t denied. 

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Au contere mon ami. Never been weakened in water in my whole life. Honest injun. Not even a bit of me, let alone all.

Weakened in water????? Can you please give me some of that you are on.

 

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

I wasn't talking about Yinn's answers. I said you hadn't answered any of hers. "Cos you haven't.

 

Didn't you say up the thread that it's a public forum where the OP posts his thoughts and we all  comment? Or was that me?

 

No matter. I'm part of 'all' while I'm still allowed on here.

If it doesn´t matter, why do you even consider post about it?

 

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, CNXexpat said:

When you post many expats, you are talking of about 10-20%

100% of all I know. One guy is married with a lawyer, one with a doctor, one with a high manager at Central, one with a Lady from a wealthy family and so on. I guess more are in a relationship with women from wealthier families than you can imagine. Not all for sure.

 

No bar scene in Chiang Mai, sure. Forgot your glasses in your home country?

If you start with a personal question I reply with one: do you forgot your reading comprehension in your home country or what is so difficult to understand at the sentence "in Chiang Mai by example doesn´t exist a bar scene like in Pattaya"?

I never said all restaurants serving western food. Just that it will have an impact.

Yes, you never said it - and I never wrote that you said it. What´s your point?

You said "A lot of restaurants that have been catering to western cuisine and international food, will have to close" and I said, that I don´t think that a lot have to close without expats. That less expats will have an impact/effect is another thing what I haven´t denied. 

Why did you just copy the same you posted before? 

[mike787]

Correct, if we left no impact and thailand would be happy.  They still have Chinese/indian/russian visitors.