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Posted (edited)

Just to inject a little light-hearted humor, some amusing things I've seen appearing on various social media lately:

1735372599_snapshot_2020-02-12at2_51_54PM.jpg.d71a5f11c94b059f5afa094577c841b7.jpg

 

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Edited by WaveHunter
Posted

I have been in Siem Reap for the last 5 days enjoying life travelling like normal people. Busy here, so other people have not all lost their mind.

 

So you sit in your room all day and waiting 2 years until they have a vaccine or something? Unbelievable this panic here.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, canthai55 said:

I can't believe the paranoia and fear that this virus is causing.

News full of horror stories - unfounded - and scare tactics.

This is not the first corona virus, and it will not be the last.

Get Over It.

Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

Worst case scenario - another seasonal flu. If you ain't very young, very old, or have a compromised immune system, you will get the flu.

End Of.

You have cherry-picked information and misinterpreted what you read from this doctor, and if you believe what you are saying, you are grossly ignorant of the facts!!  You are completely misinterpreting this doctor's actual view of the current crisis!

 

Looking at the article you linked, Experts envision 'TWO" scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t containedyou have only presented only ONE of those scenarios, and completely ignored the other!  That is deliberate misinformation by omission, or you just didn't even read the article in its' entirely! 

 

You should know what you are talking about before posting such misleading nonsense!  Misinformation such as this is just as dangerous as the virus itself!

 

Here are just a few references to Osterholm's concerns about this particular Coronavirus, now officially named COVID-19

 

Osterholm co-wrote an op-ed for Time.com titled 'Why We Are So Ill-Prepared for a Possible Pandemic Like Coronavirus'.  

 

Another reference to his concern:

Infectious diseases expert Michael Osterholm warned that it is unwise to conclude that just because the world hasn’t yet seen outbreaks in other countries they won’t happen. It takes several generations of transmission — an imported case passed on to two others, who then infect two others and so on — before an outbreak takes off, he said.

 

“What we’re watching is the public health community trying to catch up to the speed of the virus,” said Osterholm, who is the director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/08/who-cautions-coronavirus-transmission-could-increase-beyond-china/

 

Another reference:  

With a new coronavirus sickening thousands across China, researchers who specialize in tracking the spread of infectious disease are modeling its movements. They're asking just how widespread the illness could become, now that cases have been confirmed in 17 other countries. 

"We've already lost control of it in China," says Michael Osterholm, PhD, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.  https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924430

 

Anyone who simply took a few minutes to Google for facts instead of misinterpreting what you now passing on to others would know better.  Get your facts straight instead of just adding to the flood of information and dangerous advice already out there.

 

Sorry if my words sound harsh, but this kind of BS just really pisses me off!  Spreading misinformation that makes people not take this virus seriously is almost as bad as spreading the virus itself!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted
3 hours ago, canthai55 said:

I can't believe the paranoia and fear that this virus is causing.

News full of horror stories - unfounded - and scare tactics.

This is not the first corona virus, and it will not be the last.

Get Over It.

Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

Worst case scenario - another seasonal flu. If you ain't very young, very old, or have a compromised immune system, you will get the flu.

End Of.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I want to point out to anyone who reads your post that you totally twisted what was said in that article you linked to meet your own agenda.

 

For instance, you infer that the Doctor is saying there is nothing to worry about by writing "Odds: Pretty Good".  What he said was that once the epidemic has passed, the virus may return seasonally (as a less infectious virus), and that those "odds" were pretty good.  The article makes it crystal clear he is not talking about the current outbreak, but after the outbreak has passed, and what the odds might be for this to become a recurring seasonal outbreak (with far less serious consequences).

 

In other words, there is a big difference between what the article actually says and your "happy face", no-reason-to-worry interpretation of it....a BIG difference!

 

In reality, the current outbreak has already well surpassed the number of deaths associated with SARS, and in the case of Influenza, doctors know what to expect because the virus has been around al long time, and there is a vaccine for it. 

 

With NOCV, it is a totally new virus in humans with only a history of weeks; therefore very little is really known about it yet, and there is no vaccine and will not be one that can be administered widely for at least a year and probably longer. 

 

With an R-Naught of close to three and possible more, and a Serious Complication Rate of around 20%, the number of ICU cases will overwhelm the healthcare system in Wuhan within weeks, and once that happens, the case fatality rate (CFR) will soar, not due directly to the virus, but due to the inability to treat the seriously ill. 

 

Finally, the comment in your post:  "Worst case scenario - another seasonal flu. If you ain't very young, very old, or have a compromised immune system, you will get the flu." are NOT the doctor's words, they are yours!  And I might add, completely incorrect!  The Chinese doctor, Dr. Li Wenliang, who was the initial whistleblower when the outbreak first occurred back in December and tried to warn others but was aggressively censored by the Chinese Government for doing so... well, he died from NCOV a few days ago.  He was in his early 30's with no pre-existing conditions.

 

Anyone with an ounce of intelligence knows how dangerous COVID-19 is compared with SARS or Influenza.  Just look at these charts...how obvious does it need to be to see how dangerous NCOV is???:

1636124204_snapshot_2020-02-12at5_35_49PM.jpg.fd0e761908dcf7bc46ddf7ca958df418.jpg  1114742219_snapshot_2020-02-12at5_36_13PM.jpg.247d3c4bd0315c69bcb9919d82f7e500.jpg

 

Just to be clear, I am posting my criticisms of your post not to be mean-spirited, but because you are spreading dangerous misinformation. 

 

Perhaps I'm over-sensitive to such "fake news" types of posts but in my view, spreading such nonsense that makes people take this virus less seriously than they should is almost as dangerous as spreading the virus itself.

Posted
5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

The virus has been officially named Covid-19 by the WHO. 

Sorry to be nitpicking, but it is the disease that has been officially named COVID-19. The name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, nrasmussen said:

Sorry to be nitpicking, but it is the disease that has been officially named COVID-19. The name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2.

Correct you are! Thanks for pointing that out.  Kind of dumb of me to make a mistake like that ????

 

Edited by WaveHunter
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Posted

I read the article. That is why I posted the link.

Cherry picked - 555

"The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37%  of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus)."

Here is another quote from the article.

I stand by my comment that Paranoia and Fear spread by the news media far far outweighs any possible risk.

You have a way better chance of being killed on the highway on the way to the hospital than dying from Corona

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, canthai55 said:

I read the article. That is why I posted the link.

Cherry picked - 555

"The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37%  of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus)."

Here is another quote from the article.

I stand by my comment that Paranoia and Fear spread by the news media far far outweighs any possible risk.

You have a way better chance of being killed on the highway on the way to the hospital than dying from Corona

I will agree with you that there is a lot fo "fake news" that is sensationalizing this outbreak for financial gain) but you are going way overboard here.  Much of the "bad news" being reported is absolutely true and should be taken seriously.  To merely put on a "happy face" and believe that there's nothing to worry based on mass media reports that are actually based on flawed data coming out of China is a big mistake.  You need to know the truth, which means digging into fact based sources, and really thinking objectively, not merely accepting what somebody tells you.

 

Firstly, nobody knows the actual fatality rate during an outbreak; you can only know that number once the outbreak ends.  What is far more telling is the mortality growth and growth in infection, as represented below.  The number of deaths from NCOV right now is far more than it was with SARS, and the rate of infection is far greater as these graphs plainly show:

 

2121961359_snapshot_2020-02-12at5_35_49PM.jpg.1c1a914fd2af75adef887fb8706f65f5.jpg    907647922_snapshot_2020-02-12at5_36_13PM.jpg.fc2db55fba6b38ee3766868777268a7d.jpg

 

And yet to be factored in are the estimated 75,000 unconfirmed cases (perhaps as high as 133,000) that are believed to exist in Wuhan alone, as reported in a major computer modelling study appearing in The Lancet. which is probably the pre-eminent source of peer-reviewed medical studies and discussions in the world:

 

"...In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. ..."

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9.pdf

 

While it may be true outside of China right now?     that, as you put it, "You have a way better chance of being killed on the highway on the way to the hospital than dying from Corona", that is not the case within China, and considering how out of control the outbreak is in China, a person would be a fool to blindly assume, it can not spread out of China.

 

With the unusually high Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%, the number of resultant ICU cases will quickly overwhelm the healthcare system (as in a matter of weeks!!!). 

 

That is when the fatality rate will soar far beyond whatever it is right now.  That is why there is a mad rush in China right now to build new hospitals and convert all sort of public spaces into temporary emergency hospitals (which look more for detainment centers) for non-ICU cases...to ease the burden on the main hospitals so they can deal with expected massive number of ICU cases!  Sadly, there will not be enough ICU beds for all the ICU cases, so many deaths will occur, not directly from the virus, but from the inability to treat the severely ill.

 

You think that can not happen outside of China?  Do you seriously think that some geopolitical border is going to magically protect the global community?

 

Well, most major countries around the world would strongly disagree with you!  Every major country in the world is taking this very seriously, including the United States which is currently mobilizing massive field hospital strategies for the possibility of tens of thousands of potential infections.  They may be keeping it all low key so as not to alarm the public, but they are doing it and it's not much of a secret if you make yourself informed about what's going on from reliable fact-based sources.  Governments don't take those kind of actions unless there is something to worry about!

 

Sorry but your interpretations of facts from the article you referenced were grossly incorrect, and if you truly believe that NCoV is nothing to worry about you simply are in denial.  Read the Lancet Report I linked above, and then tell me all is just fine and there's nothing anyone should be concerned with.  I mean, the very doctor you misquoted in your original post is genuinely concerned and a quick Google search about him will make that very clear!

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, canthai55 said:

I read the article. That is why I posted the link.

Cherry picked - 555

"The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37%  of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus)."

Here is another quote from the article.

I stand by my comment that Paranoia and Fear spread by the news media far far outweighs any possible risk.

You have a way better chance of being killed on the highway on the way to the hospital than dying from Corona

Again, I'm not trying to be mean-spirited, and I'm not telling you (or anyone else) what to think,  I'm just trying to convince people to be more objective, get their fact from reliable sources, and then decide for yourself what the truth really is...what is real and what is not.

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted
1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Read the Lancet Report I linked above, and then tell me all is just fine and there's nothing anyone should be concerned with. 

There is a lot of ground between your fear mongering and "all is just fine and there is nothing anyone should be concerned with".  No matter how hard you push it and how much you slant it, it is not black and white.

Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Dante99 said:

There is a lot of ground between your fear mongering and "all is just fine and there is nothing anyone should be concerned with".  No matter how hard you push it and how much you slant it, it is not black and white.

As usual, you continue to stalk me from one thread to another, as you have done now for over two years, with your subtle yet childish baiting, inflammatory remarks and snippy comments, while never ever contributing anything meaningful to a thread.  You just seem to be one of those sorry people who can only feel good about themselves by putting someone else down.  What a sad life you must lead.

 

I feel sorry for you, but it's finally tIme to put you on ignore...Bye Bye.

 

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

With the unusually high Serious Complication Rate (SCR) of 20%, the number of resultant ICU cases will quickly overwhelm the healthcare system (as in a matter of weeks!!!). 

 

That is when the fatality rate will soar far beyond whatever it is right now.  That is why there is a mad rush in China right now to build new hospitals and convert all sort of public spaces into temporary emergency hospitals (which look more for detainment centers) for non-ICU cases...to ease the burden on the main hospitals so they can deal with expected massive number of ICU cases!  Sadly, there will not be enough ICU beds for all the ICU cases, so many deaths will occur, not directly from the virus, but from the inability to treat the severely ill.

Wuhan/Hubei ICUs have been overwhelmed for some time. I recall hearing (can't recall where, unfortunately) that Wuhan had around 49,000 beds. ICU beds account for 1-2% of total beds in China*. ie Wuhan has around 2,000 ICU beds. So, with an SCR of 20%, if Wuhan has over 10,000 cases (of ~33k confirmed cases reported for Hubei) its ICU capacity will be more or less filled.

 

This is probably one reason the mortality rate in Hubei Province is far higher than in other places (eg 3.2% = 1068/33366 in Hubei) vs maybe 0.2% outside China.

 

It's easy to get complacent because of the apparently slow rate of spread outside China (& indeed in most Chinese provinces outside Hubei). But it seems that all/or most Chinese cities have been imposing strict quarantine conditions on everyone for several weeks (friends in Kunming and Chengdu have told me this, and these are far from the worst affected cities outside Hubei).

 

Strict quarantine of entire cities can't continue much longer; nor can the international travel bans. Barring some serendipity, I'd expect the spread of the virus to pick up rapidly when city-level quarantine &/ travel bans are lifted.

 

A possible serendipitous factor: the virus could be very sensitive to hot/humid weather. I believe a link to research indicating that this helped curtailed the spread of SARs (with the exceptions of HK and Singapore, where aircon is very widespread) has been posted above.

 

Comparing the relative import risks (RIRs) calculated for SE asian countries by the Robert Koch-Institute** with the case counts, it does indeed seem that the less-developed countries have less than their share of cases. Assuming proportionality of case counts with RIRs, Thailand, HK and Singapore 'should have' ~50, ~25, ~10 cases, compared to 33, 49, 47.  On the other hand, several less developed (&  presumably less airconned) SE asian countries' case counts seem broadly in line with their RIRs. And perhaps HK and SIngapore are more crowded than average? But it's just possible that hot climates and sparse aircon may spare SE asia from COVID-19 epidemics.

 

*https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2875498/

**http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/

Edited by onebir
  • Like 1
Posted

problem starting /everyone in my area have the flu /including me 

coughing/ sore throat/ headache /most of locals say they wont go to a hospital to check,  as could catch the virus there 

Posted
10 minutes ago, opalred said:

problem starting /everyone in my area have the flu /including me 

coughing/ sore throat/ headache /most of locals say they wont go to a hospital to check,  as could catch the virus there 

  If this post is you trolling the forum (once again) then it's in poor taste.  

Posted

Sounds terrible.

 

Stay where you are and don't travel outside your area. No point of taking the virus to other places.

 

16 minutes ago, opalred said:

problem starting /everyone in my area have the flu /including me 

coughing/ sore throat/ headache /most of locals say they wont go to a hospital to check,  as could catch the virus there 

Now, what to do? Assuming that you lot have the Chinese Virus, eat as much foods loaded with vitamin D as you can. Vit. D helps the immune system, and will be as good as anything the local quacks can offer. (I'll not go into the actual foods as this is easily found on Google.)

 

Wear a mask. To stop any irritents getting into the lungs. Chang Mai is full of smoke particals and other nasties at the best of times.

 

Cut down on strenuous work, exercise or sport. Go for leisurely strolls in the woods if you must do something. Drink plenty of clean water. DO NOT use air-con. Keep your environment warm but aired.

 

Remember to put the masks into the microwave after an hour's use. But perhaps not with food.

 

Check out the availability of cannibis oil and GcMAF locally. If you do become bed-ridden these will help.

Posted
1 minute ago, owl sees all said:

Sounds terrible.

 

Stay where you are and don't travel outside your area. No point of taking the virus to other places.

 

Now, what to do? Assuming that you lot have the Chinese Virus, eat as much foods loaded with vitamin D as you can. Vit. D helps the immune system, and will be as good as anything the local quacks can offer. (I'll not go into the actual foods as this is easily found on Google.)

 

Wear a mask. To stop any irritents getting into the lungs. Chang Mai is full of smoke particals and other nasties at the best of times.

 

Cut down on strenuous work, exercise or sport. Go for leisurely strolls in the woods if you must do something. Drink plenty of clean water. DO NOT use air-con. Keep your environment warm but aired.

 

Remember to put the masks into the microwave after an hour's use. But perhaps not with food.

 

Check out the availability of cannibis oil and GcMAF locally. If you do become bed-ridden these will help.

GET ADEQUATE SLEEP (see my post above)

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

GET ADEQUATE SLEEP (see my post above)

Your post is exceptional WaveHunter.

 

Some sound and sensible advice. We need a self-help thread on the forum. Could save us.

 

Start one WaveHunter. I would but I've no internet.

Edited by owl sees all
  • Like 1
Posted

my wife works as a volunteer at the community center /and with the elderly / the information comes from them /so  appleton you think they are trolling and have  poor taste 

Posted

i do have to add the problem will be with everyone getting the flu it will be hard to identify the differences

this is the first flu i have had here after 15yrs   /the only way you know anything is from the local community/if everyone here is getting it/everyone in north must be getting it / the govt wont tell you anything 

Posted (edited)

According to an article appearing in the South China Morning Post today, Hubei’s new confirmed cases pegged at 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242.

 

IMPORTANT:  It should be understood this jump is due to a change in diagnostic criteria put into place beginning today, not a sudden surge in cases or deaths in the last day.

 

I'm only posting this so people seeing this jump in numbers don't freak out and assume something unusually alarming is suddenly happening, especially from "fake news" sources who will surely try to take advantage with clickbait headlines.  I've already seen a few sleazy ones popping up on YouTube.

 

By the same token,  these new number are very sobering, more accurately describing how serious this outbreak really is, so kudos to the Chinese Central government for finally allowing more transparency of the actual situation.

 

So, China’s National Health Commission now has reported 59,804 confirmed cases of coronavirus as of Wednesday – after a surge of 15,152 new cases because of a change in diagnostic criteria.

 

Hubei’s health commission said in its daily statement that it had changed the diagnostic criteria used to confirm cases, effective Thursday, meaning that doctors have broader discretion to determine which patients are infected.

 

According to Tong Zhaohui, an expert in the central guidance group and vice-president of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital,

When doctors diagnose pneumonia, they can only get the etiology of the disease 20 to 30 per cent of the time. We have to rely on clinical diagnosis 70 to 80 per cent of the time. Increasing the diagnosis of clinical cases will help us make an additional judgment on the disease"

 

According to Dr Ho Pak-leung, a medical expert at the University of Hong Kong, who supports the change in diagnostic criteria in Hubei, he noted:

"Under the previous criteria some patients may have died before doctors were able to carry out any tests."

 

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted
35 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

According to Tong Zhaohui, an expert in the central guidance group and vice-president of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital,

When doctors diagnose pneumonia, they can only get the etiology of the disease 20 to 30 per cent of the time. We have to rely on clinical diagnosis 70 to 80 per cent of the time. Increasing the diagnosis of clinical cases will help us make an additional judgment on the disease"

ie they just don't have enough test kits...

Posted
e·ti·ol·o·gy
/ˌēdēˈäləjē/
noun
noun: aetiology; plural noun: aetiologies; noun: etiology; plural noun: etiologies
  1. 1.
    Medicine
    the cause, set of causes, or manner of causation of a disease or condition.
    "a group of distinct diseases with different etiologies"
    • the causation of diseases and disorders as a subject of investigation.
  2. 2.
    the investigation or attribution of the cause or reason for something, often expressed in terms of historical or mythical explanation.
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, canthai55 said:
e·ti·ol·o·gy
/ˌēdēˈäləjē/
noun
noun: aetiology; plural noun: aetiologies; noun: etiology; plural noun: etiologies
  1. 1.
    Medicine
    the cause, set of causes, or manner of causation of a disease or condition.
    "a group of distinct diseases with different etiologies"
    • the causation of diseases and disorders as a subject of investigation.
  2. 2.
    the investigation or attribution of the cause or reason for something, often expressed in terms of historical or mythical explanation.

It's the doctor's quote, not my words.  What point are you trying to make?

Edited by WaveHunter
Posted

i see a town in Vietnam 10000 people / has been quarantined 

i believe they are doing nothing here /govt  say nothing as will stop money coming in from tourists

people think they cannot come here from china through Laos and Vietnam

over the years i have been many times that way to china without flying

Posted
4 hours ago, CobraSnakeNecktie said:

It's a mockery psyop to force vaccinations

Since there are no approved vaccinations available for the virus, please let us know what they will be using against the virus.

 

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