Thailand’s PM assures coronavirus situation is “100% under control”

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Give it time. The "common flu", aka influenza, has had years to spread to the populations and has become part of daily life. In a few weeks it could be spread all over and then you'd see more deaths than from influenza.

 

I doubt that very much, dear Dr. Even the last real pandemic, the 2009 one, took a year to reach the 500,000 figure, which is comparable to annual flu deaths.

 

There is absolutely no way, whatsoever, that the coronavirus will cause more than 500,000 deaths in "a few weeks".

 

It is this kind of nonsense that is fuelling the mass hysteria. There may be no harm in washing your hands, there is harm in scaring poor impressionable souls half to death. 

 

I will hereby bet 1000 Baht with ANYONE willing to take the wager, that in 'a few weeks' the coronavirus will NOT have killed 500,000 people. 

 

That suggestion is ludicrous. SARS has been around since 2001 and has caused an extremely small number of deaths. Certainly nowhere near the 500,000 which the common flu causes EACH year.

 

Thank you. 

[zydeco]

6 minutes ago, dcnx said:

It would be just terrible if he caught it. At his age he might not recover.

 

Let’s all pray for this great man as he hides away in a mansion somewhere.

Do they have pitchforks and torches in Thailand? I know we've got the peasants. Just got to show them the way to the castle.

[SpanishExpat]

34 minutes ago, khunpa said:

With the number of cases in Thailand jumping from 8 to 14 in just 24 hours, I am sure this is fully under control.

The problem knowing how Chinese behave in other countries rather is. Will everyone with symptoms directly visit a hospital? I guess not. The number of cases is going up and Thailand is just not capable of dealing with it like China or western countries. Being healthy , their is still a minimal risk of dying after being infected, but no one knows yet, how that virus might mutate. Quarantine of Thai cities, offices closing and public life being stopped....can`t see that happening in Thailand with its useless government. So just let`s hope that the cases won`t go up exponentially. 

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There is absolutely no way, whatsoever, that the coronavirus will cause more than 500,000 deaths in "a few weeks".

It's all about R0 and containment. R0 has been estimated at 2.6. Containment .. well it's completely out in the wild in Thailand.

[URMySunshine]

It's not the virus that's replicating at an alarming rate but new members !

[zydeco]

Alas, the Thai PM certainly is no John Martin Poyer.

[Logosone]

17 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Would love to hear you "expert" opinion on why you think China have put many of its cities on lockdown? Why would they close cities for nothing??... please tell me......

 

Chinese officials are taking measures at a government and local level to contain a virus. That is very sensible.

 

What is not sensible is to talk about coronavirus killing 500,000 in a few weeks, or 210,000,000 or whatever fantasy figures some people, influenced by mass media hysteria come up with.

 

Yes, this is a virus. Yes, it causes a flu. Yes, a small number of people may die from it. Yes, the Chinese are taking measures to reduce this figure.

 

It in no way means 210,000,000 deaths from coronavirus are going to happen in September. They won't.

[DrTuner]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

NB1986 also does not tell you that the 3.8 figure would be EXACTLY THE SAME figure as the SARS virus had. Which in the end killed around 800 people.

We got lucky with SARS because it wasn't infectious until the symptoms started, so it was possible to contain. Not sure about this one, have to wait and see.

 

Here's some more light reading: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

[seb2015]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That is absolute and unadulterated horse manure.

231,000,000 million deaths by this September is so unbelievably ridiculous one almost has to go into spasms of laughter.

What NB1986 is referring to is R naught, the number that describes how many people a newly infected person is likely to pass a virus to.

He cites a value of R 3.8. What he does not say is that in reality there are many, many different estimates of the R naught of the coronavirus. Estimates range from the WHO's 1.4 to Jonathan Read's 4.0, however, these are just estimates based on UNKNOWN figures. Read for example admits he estimates the real number, he does not know the real number.

So R Naught is based on an unknown guesstimate.

NB1986 also does not tell you that the 3.8 figure would be EXACTLY THE SAME figure as the SARS virus had. Which in the end killed around 800 people.

Not 231,000,000 million, ROFLMAO.

What NB1986 also doesn't say is that neither SARS or MERS have been able to sustain human-to-human transmission the way influenza viruses can. That’s because the viruses haven’t fully adapted to infect humans, “and maybe they never will,”:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

Thank you , my goodness the amount of BS people can say at times...

 

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”

― Isaac Asimov

 

[Isaan sailor]

Both North Korea and Mongolia have closed their land borders to China.  Why does Cha-Cha still allow all flights from China?

[natway09]

I had reserved my judgement about this guy but now we all know,

100% uder control.????????

The man is a liar a cheat & Trump like statements like this make him a danger to the 

whole community.

[Darkside Gray]

Super general strikes again man of many talents masyer of non.

[Timwin]

6 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I'm confused by all the fuss and panic over the coronavirus. It is so far proved to be non-fatal to nearly everyone who contracts it, and that death rate is no greater than that for 'normal' flu sufferers. Have I misunderstood something?

A typical seasonal flu kills about 1 out of 500 (0.1 percent), most elderly or otherwise weak. This one is killing one out of 40-50 (2-3 percent) with SARS like acute respiratory syndrome. In other words your lungs fill up with fluids and you suffocate slowly over a couple of days. Not a pleasant way to die. This could be a weaker sister of SARS of 2002 but it is spreading much faster. SARS killed one out of ten but only had about 8500 cases total. This is going to into millions infected in early February, the curve is exponential. 

 

Half of the 41 bodies examined so far in China had no underlying issues. One healthy 61 year-old doctor got it via eye and was dead a week later.

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Thank you, and since we therefore do not know the number of infected all R naught numbers are pure mathematical guesstimates. Correct?

At this point it's a lot of guesswork. Will take weeks to get the final tally. In the meanwhile, assuming it'll spread and taking precautions is prudent.

 

My personal take is a quote from my favorite movie though: 'Death smiles at us all, but all a man can do is smile back'. I don't think this one will be our extinction, it probably doesn't have the necessary mortality. Next time then.

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Timwin said:

A typical seasonal flu kills about 1 out of 500 (0.1 percent), most elderly or otherwise weak. This one is killing one out of 40-50 (2-3 percent) with SARS like acute respiratory syndrome. In other words your lungs fill up with fluids and you suffocate slowly over a couple of days. Not a pleasant way to die. This could be a weaker sister of SARS of 2002 but it is spreading much faster. SARS killed one out of ten but only had about 8500 cases total. This is going to into millions infected in early February, the curve is exponential. 

 

Half of the 41 bodies examined so far in China had no underlying issues. One healthy 61 year-old doctor got it via eye and was dead a week later.

 

As has been pointed out above, we do not have the true figure of people actually infected.  Therefore, you can not say that the coronavirus kills 2-3 per cent. The WHO for example says it is just over 1 per cent. There are many different scientists giving different figures. Without knowing the real figure of infected people you can not know the actual R naught figure. It is just a guesstimate based on an unknown number.

 

 

 

 

[meshborg]

From a government and country with the worst road deaths in the world,deadly pollution and medieval hygene and health n safety levels.Just add to to the list.A Million Ways to Die in the East.

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Hysteria about the shutdown and normal acute health incidents have sadly been bundled up into this and no doubt some of the alarming videos reflect this rather than some devilish viral disease and are creating a lot of 'panic noise'.

 

That we live in a 24/7 social media bubble is also very significant - this might just be the world's largest social media panic scare.

Exactly! Those social media videos have created a massive panic in China. There is no doubt the panic is multiplying far faster than the virus. It is very much a social media scare, and of course the media itself are complicit and fuelling it for rating purposes. Not to mention some posters on this message forum.

 

Surely you are aware that neither SARS nor MERS have continued to spread the way Influenza does? The verdict is that these variations of the flu, and that is what they are, mutations of the flu, have not spread like influenza because they have not adapted to spread among humans in the same rate that influenza does. 

 

Even if coronavirus spreads more akin to the flu, it appears to be far less deadly than MERS or SARS. If we have 100,000 cases and 100 dead that would make the coronavirus a hundred times LESS deadly than even SARS. To say nothing of MERS.

 

 

[natway09]

Sorry, what he mean't to say was,

We are aware of the gravity of the situation & are taking all preventitive & treatment measures that we can. The Health Dept will make periodic statements & requests to the public.

Please follow their instructions.   Reprt to them any persons you believe may have contacted the virus, or show symptoms

[jwbrit]

The theater of the absurd.

[asiacurious]

7 hours ago, yokat said:

If you want to have a laugh it's at page 290 of this pdf:

https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf

 

My favorites from Thailand's score:

50/100 on travel and trade restriction

100/100 on risk communication

 

I'm surprised those are both as high as they are.  Would have thought they would be lower.

 

Check out page 55 of the pdf too, which ends with:  "The GHS Index shows that Thailand is, beyond a doubt, an international leader in health security."

 

Maybe they are, maybe they aren't.  Time will tell.

 

 

[Cake Monster]

11 hours ago, colinneil said:

Time to be worried folk, if Prayut says it is 100% under control, once again his is bul++iting.

Why does he make stupid comments like that, as he knows like everybody else it is not under control.

He makes stupid comments such as this, because , believe it or not, there are actually some people in Thailand that hang on every word that comes forth from this guy.

[URMySunshine]

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Exactly! Those social media videos have created a massive panic in China. There is no doubt the panic is multiplying far faster than the virus. It is very much a social media scare, and of course the media itself are complicit and fuelling it for rating purposes. Not to mention some posters on this message forum.

 

Surely you are aware that neither SARS nor MERS have continued to spread the way Influenza does? The verdict is that these variations of the flu, and that is what they are, mutations of the flu, have not spread like influenza because they have not adapted to spread among humans in the same rate that influenza does. 

 

Even if coronavirus spreads more akin to the flu, it appears to be far less deadly than MERS or SARS. If we have 100,000 cases and 100 dead that would make the coronavirus a hundred times LESS deadly than even SARS. To say nothing of MERS.

 

 

You have informed me and thank you for that I have gone to look up the swine flu on wiki. You seem well informed on the subject and I do so hope you are right. If so , social media has a lot to be responsible for - Trump , Brexit and now this.

[ThailandRyan]

Now up to 14 known and confirmed coronavirus cases of Chinese nationals in Thailand per the Bangkok post. Additionally, the 20 navy personnel had left china before the Wuhan lock down. 

[ExpatOne]

11 hours ago, colinneil said:

Time to be worried folk, if Prayut says it is 100% under control, once again his is bul++iting.

Why does he make stupid comments like that, as he knows like everybody else it is not under control.

Because the masses are stupid (everywhere) and they believe authority figures. 

[Logosone]

39 minutes ago, NB1986 said:

Ofcourse when WHO gave out report for H1N1 it was 20.000 later those numbers spiked to 203.000 final report was 580.000 dead and few millions infected who survived and had later respiratory problems, weak immune system and died from common flu or small infection. So these numbers right now are innacurate and when WHO states out an alarm for Pandemic it may be too late. After i will ask people who were panicking and those who listened governments and blindly believed. Yes SARS was more deadly FOR now and it lasted for 86 days while this kind of virus killed 106 people in 19 days WITH official numbers which i believe are a lot higher. 

It is true, the death toll for H1N1 in 2009 did spike up as time went by. How could it be otherwise. We can see from this pandemic yet again how it takes time for the true number of affected, and of deaths, to reveal itself. How could we possibly know NOW the true number of deaths that Cov will cause? We will know in a year or two. It is just impossible to know now, so obviously the numbers will keep rising, just like with H1N1. That is perfectly normal, to be expected and certainly not a deliberate attempt to hide information by the WHO.

 

Cov killed 100 people, and there may be 100,000 actual cases. That means Cov has a death rate of 0.1 per cent, almost the same as influenza and actually 100 times LESS deadly than SARS. With the crucial difference that influenza has hundreds of years of adapting to spread among humans, if not thousands, Cov has not. SARS did not.

 

So I really do not think there is any reason whatsoever to be concerned about Cov to a greater degree than about the common flu. Since influenza kills 500,00 people EACH year.

[Sergeant]

You can not control any thing you know know nothing about! It has traveled all around the world and soon might come to Thailand that the doctors do not know how to treat. Just think, Its a virus and not a bacterial? Why is China building such a large Hospital, Two of them?

City is now close to anyone who wish to leave. Sure fred 100% control, Remember that when it comes to your front door?

Thank you

[metisdead]

Some troll posts and replies have been removed.

 

Off topic posts going on about the flu, Mad Cow Disease and the replies have been removed.

 

Some posts containing unsubstantiated information have been removed, please post a link to your source of information when posting:

 

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[DrTuner]

CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-28-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote

Hong Kong closes China borders as Wuhan coronavirus spreads

 

Others should follow suit ASAP.

[SiSePuede419]

57 minutes ago, Sergeant said:

Why is China building such a large Hospital

Because they can build one over a weekend.  Containment.  Pain Relief.  Possible ventilation if oxygen is needed.

 

I don't know why so many Farang on TVF are worried?!?! 

 

Many TVF Farang in Pattaya are *voluntarily* killing themselves slowly with a bad diet, obesity, cigarettes and alcoholism.

 

Coronavirus just speeds things up a bit.

 

Giddy up! ????

[PhonThong]

Amazing how Thailand is the only country that has this under control.