If Mideast War, What Effect For Thailand?

[canuckamuck]

Given the increasing likelihood (imo) of a major Middle Eastern conflict, what would be the direct impact on Thailand? For the major war scenario, I am not only considering an Arab-Israeli conflict, which in itself has global implications, but a total meltdown of the mid-east region.

For example: The Iraq war has shown a tremendous potential for the Shiite vs. Sunni conflict to overflow Iraqi borders. Even without the destabilizing effect of an attack on Israel. American withdrawal from Iraq will likely force the Saudis to protect the doomed Sunni population from Iran (they have already made such comments). Iran will also find it difficult to resist invading defenseless Iraq and double its oil reserves overnight. Iranian aggression and its considerable hubris would put it in a two front war between The Saudis on the west and all the Sunni Stans on its Eastern border including Pakistan. A weakened and unstable Middle East political map will have Russia, China, Europe, and America, posturing to secure their oil supply. Would Thailand be immune to this new political landscape?

[Jeffery Stanthorpe]

Given the increasing likelihood (imo) of a major Middle Eastern conflict, what would be the direct impact on Thailand? For the major war scenario, I am not only considering an Arab-Israeli conflict, which in itself has global implications, but a total meltdown of the mid-east region.

For example: The Iraq war has shown a tremendous potential for the Shiite vs. Sunni conflict to overflow Iraqi borders. Even without the destabilizing effect of an attack on Israel. American withdrawal from Iraq will likely force the Saudis to protect the doomed Sunni population from Iran (they have already made such comments). Iran will also find it difficult to resist invading defenseless Iraq and double its oil reserves overnight. Iranian aggression and its considerable hubris would put it in a two front war between The Saudis on the west and all the Sunni Stans on its Eastern border including Pakistan. A weakened and unstable Middle East political map will have Russia, China, Europe, and America, posturing to secure their oil supply. Would Thailand be immune to this new political landscape?

Hi,

i think Thailand is pretty immune to any chemical or radioactive fallout as if you check the coordinates on a map it would be quite far away from the conflicit.

Lots of americans reckon it would be better if they all just nuked each other and made one big glass bowl over there, it would end a lot of problems for the US

and what is good for the US is good for everyone including Thailand hope this helps

[Mid]

net importer of oil , immune ???

[Gerontion]

Thailand imports something like 70% of its oil from the ME. Supplies are tight as it is (Saudi production seems to have plateaued and we may well be at or close to a global peak) so any further competition will not be good news for Thailand - I think it's a little unlikely that Thailand will be barging to the head of the queue ahead of the States, the EU and China. On the plus side, if, as is looking increasingly likely, we are at peak oil, everyone is stuffed so it doesn't really matter where you are.

[aussiestyle1983]

I think Thailand is pretty safe if a middle east war broke out between countries only. But If it was a religious was or "Jihad" im not so sure how safe it would be here. I think if a real "Jihad" takes place, Thailand would eventually be turned into an Islam dominant country. With some leaders that are in high positions now and who are making certain decisions, I get the feeling that someone high up here wants Thailand to be more Islamic. Combine that with the violence in the south and the Friendly attitude of most Bhuddist Thais, and I see it quite possible for Islam to take over within the next decade, even without a "Jihad"

But I dont think Thailand will be Nuked (From the middle east or from N Korea)

[Heng]

The ME consumes an awful lot of Thai foodstuffs (from food fish, to LOTS of fresh fruit, to chickens slaughtered according to Shariah rule)... I'd assume that unless it became a WW II blockade type situation where they started interdicting commercial aviation (has there even been a conflict since then that seriously affected commercial aviation for such a large region?), imports from and exports to the ME would continue as normal... with the odd splurges of price gouging + temporary shortages by all parties involved thrown in.

[DirkGently]

If the sandy countries get up to their necks in war there would be less free spending arabs 'gracing' the shopping malls.

On the other hand less arabs.....Good or bad?

[soundman]

Given the increasing likelihood (imo) of a major Middle Eastern conflict, what would be the direct impact on Thailand? For the major war scenario, I am not only considering an Arab-Israeli conflict, which in itself has global implications, but a total meltdown of the mid-east region.

For example: The Iraq war has shown a tremendous potential for the Shiite vs. Sunni conflict to overflow Iraqi borders. Even without the destabilizing effect of an attack on Israel. American withdrawal from Iraq will likely force the Saudis to protect the doomed Sunni population from Iran (they have already made such comments). Iran will also find it difficult to resist invading defenseless Iraq and double its oil reserves overnight. Iranian aggression and its considerable hubris would put it in a two front war between The Saudis on the west and all the Sunni Stans on its Eastern border including Pakistan. A weakened and unstable Middle East political map will have Russia, China, Europe, and America, posturing to secure their oil supply. Would Thailand be immune to this new political landscape?

Hi,

i think Thailand is pretty immune to any chemical or radioactive fallout as if you check the coordinates on a map it would be quite far away from the conflicit.

Lots of americans reckon it would be better if they all just nuked each other and made one big glass bowl over there, it would end a lot of problems for the US

and what is good for the US is good for everyone including Thailand hope this helps

Once again the oddball of the day award goes to mr JS.

Too much Red Bull man..

Soundman.

[glenbat]

On the other hand less arabs.....Good or bad?

Bad!! Who would the ladyboys on Pattaya Beach Rd drug and rob then??

[glenbat]

But If it was a religious was or "Jihad" im not so sure how safe it would be here.

Doesnt every conflict in the middle east boil down to religion?

[qwertz]

It's quite possible that the Thais know enough, from recent experience in that part of the world, about the destructive effects of getting involved in a war and the profitable side of staying neutral that they might just have the sense to make the right decision.

Edited April 4, 2007 by qwertz

[aussiestyle1983]

But If it was a religious was or "Jihad" im not so sure how safe it would be here.

Doesnt every conflict in the middle east boil down to religion?

Not if the yanks get or are involved

[britmaveric]

No effect!!!

[Jimjim]

Such a war as you suggest would affect the whole world, not only Thailand. It would seriously affect the world economy. It's just a matter of how much and for how long. Remember the coup? That affected all the economies of Asia but it wasn't a catastrophe, it just seemed to be noticeable for a few weeks in the Asian market. So how much more would an even huger war in the Middle East affect the world?

[canuckamuck]

It is interesting to note the comments so far: Aside from the view that a massive war in the ME might actually help simplify world politics (a harsh, unsympathetic, point that is plausible nonetheless) nobody here has commented on the potential for Thailand sovereignty to be threatened. Thailand right now is sandwiched between Chinese puppets Laos, and Myanmar to the north, to a lesser degree Vietnam and Cambodia to the west with Islamic Malaysia to south. Thailand’s independence is strategically important to western powers, as was proved in the Vietnam War. Thailands strength is magnified by this factor

A power vacuum in this region with America and Europe heavily occupied with an ME quagmire. Would leave Thailand indefensible and forced to bend to the wishes of the red giants. (Russia already controls Pattaya ) How long could Thailand remain sovereign in a situation like that?

[h90]

I guess if US leaves the Iraq there are few options:

There is civil war there or a new dictator rise: the western countries if smart leave them alone and they'll concentrate on each other, relative peace outside.

Saudis and Iran find some way of sharing their influence and make peace there as both don't like a conflict so close. It gets everywhere better.

USA is continuing messing arround and it needs more years till they get kicked out. If Thailand make a smart politic not supporting the US and fixing their south there will be no problem.

USA continue make troubles with muslim countries, next premier of Thailand helps USA---problems.

[dumspero]

h90- Brilliant. The USA continues to make troubles with muslim countries? Brilliant.

Perhaps Islamic radicalism has roots that go deeper than US involvement. Perhaps radicalism was building over decades (and longer) independent of anything the US or any other Western country was doing to any "muslim country." Perhaps there are larger, longer-running forces involved (e.g. the center of gravity of the Islamic world having unfortunately turned away from science and technology in centuries past, thereby abandoning its proud history and traditions, in my view).

A true major war in the Mid East would be potentially devastating to Thailand and the rest of the world. Without even thinking about economic and social impacts, nobody could say where the military escalation would end. If China got aggressive, which I would see as extremely unlikely, and invaded Thailand, then in such an extreme situation (assuming major conflict in various places), it's not at all clear the US would assist Thailand or even care, really, about what happened to it. In such an extreme scenario, Thailand would just not be a priority to the US. So lucky Thailand would likely be spared the "US making troubles for Buddhist countries."

[Tornado]

Given the increasing likelihood (imo) of a major Middle Eastern conflict, what would be the direct impact on Thailand? For the major war scenario, I am not only considering an Arab-Israeli conflict, which in itself has global implications, but a total meltdown of the mid-east region.

For example: The Iraq war has shown a tremendous potential for the Shiite vs. Sunni conflict to overflow Iraqi borders. Even without the destabilizing effect of an attack on Israel. American withdrawal from Iraq will likely force the Saudis to protect the doomed Sunni population from Iran (they have already made such comments). Iran will also find it difficult to resist invading defenseless Iraq and double its oil reserves overnight. Iranian aggression and its considerable hubris would put it in a two front war between The Saudis on the west and all the Sunni Stans on its Eastern border including Pakistan. A weakened and unstable Middle East political map will have Russia, China, Europe, and America, posturing to secure their oil supply. Would Thailand be immune to this new political landscape?

Hi,

i think Thailand is pretty immune to any chemical or radioactive fallout as if you check the coordinates on a map it would be quite far away from the conflicit.

Lots of americans reckon it would be better if they all just nuked each other and made one big glass bowl over there, it would end a lot of problems for the US

and what is good for the US is good for everyone including Thailand hope this helps

I had to re check the date for this post, as I thought it might of been an April fools joke.

You represent your country very well. ######!

Hurry up China, nuke those septics before they ###### up the world for good.

Edited April 5, 2007 by Tornado

[Scott]

Of course it would have an effect. These things--even small wars--can have far reaching consequences. First, during times of war, people tend to travel less (for holidays at least). Less tourists means less money in Thailand.

Secondly, oil prices soar and that has a lot of affect on a lot of people.

Finally, there is just a long line of knock-on affects that would negatively impact Thailand.

[cathyy]

Thailand imports something like 70% of its oil from the ME. Supplies are tight as it is (Saudi production seems to have plateaued and we may well be at or close to a global peak) so any further competition will not be good news for Thailand - I think it's a little unlikely that Thailand will be barging to the head of the queue ahead of the States, the EU and China. On the plus side, if, as is looking increasingly likely, we are at peak oil, everyone is stuffed so it doesn't really matter where you are.

Ah, another believer in Peak Oil. Peak Oil is here, now. Saudi oil production actually dropped in 2006 despite their best efforts. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325

I think Thailand may be a good place to be for the horror of Peak Oil, if you are well out of Bangkok. It produces a lot of food, and lots of it is not shipped very far. Think the local market. The infrastructure is still dependent on oil, but on smaller quantities of oil. People ride motorbikes more than cars; tuk-tuks and many cars use propane. The energy plans for the next 15 years include adding nuclear power plants, about 4 of them.

I think the sufficiency economy the King is advocating is his plan to allow Thailand to weather Peak Oil without the catastrophic effect it will likely have in the US and possibly Europe. I think we would all be well-advised to help Thailand achieve that goal of the sufficiency economy.

[ThaiGoon]

I think the sufficiency economy the King is advocating is his plan to allow Thailand to weather Peak Oil without the catastrophic effect it will likely have in the US and possibly Europe. I think we would all be well-advised to help Thailand achieve that goal of the sufficiency economy.

[Gerontion]

^^I’m in danger of veering wildly off-topic here but…hey ho.

I'm a regular reader of The Oil Drum (a fantastic website which is essential reading for anyone concerned about their future) and I almost agree with you about the peak being here, though I think that it’s still probably too early to be 100% sure. I also agree that Thailand is better placed to weather the storm but that ‘better’ is only relative to the extraordinary cul-de-sac which the West has driven itself down. On the positive side, as you said, Thailand produces a lot of food with localised distribution either there already or easily implemented, it is still a long way from the heavily oil-dependent infrastructure of the States, the extended support networks offer a significant cushioning to hardship and a large proportion of the population still possess the types of low-tech skills which will be in great demand in a few years. On the negative side, something like a fifth of the population lives in Bangkok, its foreign earnings are heavily dependent on tourism (sure to be one of the first casualties of peak oil) and its questionable how much capital will be around to finance a switch to non-oil energy. If peak arrives within the next few years, I think that it's unlikely that Thailand will escape without massive disruption to its economy and along with that will come all the social problems which this entails (for TV readers not the least of these will be a probable hardening of anti-foreigner sentiment.) I tend to be drawn to the doomer side of the forecasts but I do agree, from the little about it which I know, that one of the long-term positives for Thailand is the King’s promotion of the sufficiency economy.

[Nebukanezar]

I know I'll have more $$$$$ to buy land in Thailand if it continues

[bendix]

I know I'll have more $$$$$ to buy land in Thailand if it continues

Correction: You will have more $$$$$ to buy land in Thailand for your wife and her family, if it continues.

Good luck with that.

[Nebukanezar]

I know I'll have more $$$ to buy land in Thailand if it continues

Correction: You will have more $$$ to buy land in Thailand for your wife and her family, if it continues.

Good luck with that.

Double Correction; More $$$ to cover the minimum down payment on a mortgage....their credit my dough

[aussiestyle1983]

I know I'll have more $$$ to buy land in Thailand if it continues

Correction: You will have more $$$ to buy land in Thailand for your wife and her family, if it continues.

Good luck with that.

Double Correction; More $$$ to cover the minimum down payment on a mortgage....their credit my dough

Look at the bright side, more money is more money

[Nebukanezar]

I know I'll have more $$ to buy land in Thailand if it continues

Correction: You will have more $$ to buy land in Thailand for your wife and her family, if it continues.

Good luck with that.

Double Correction; More $$ to cover the minimum down payment on a mortgage....their credit my dough

Look at the bright side, more money is more money

Indeed! I like the way you think

[cathyy]

If peak arrives within the next few years, I think that it's unlikely that Thailand will escape without massive disruption to its economy and along with that will come all the social problems which this entails (for TV readers not the least of these will be a probable hardening of anti-foreigner sentiment.) I tend to be drawn to the doomer side of the forecasts but I do agree, from the little about it which I know, that one of the long-term positives for Thailand is the King’s promotion of the sufficiency economy.

I agree. Overall Thailand is much better positioned to survive with less disruption. While in the US it will be the least wealthy and middle class who are most affected, here it Thailand it will be the moderately wealthy. The really wealthy will manage somehow no matter where they are. The largest part of the population in Thailand is much less dependent on oil than the largest part of the population in the US. Still, oil dependency exists here, most significantly to me personally in the dependence on natural gas for electricity generation.

It would be nice if the US had some program equivalent to the sufficiency economy. There is little knowledge of old non-energy using old ways there, and they need to be resurrected. But people are quite naturally resistant to a major change in lifestyle, especially one they see as retrograde. The problem is that any political program to address the issue will be massively unpopular since the media and governments worldwide refuse to honestly address the issue. Most people don't understand the enormity of the problem.

I think the US is in Iraq because of Peak Oil, to ensure a US supply as long as possible. I think that is what Cheney's secret energy policy meetings were about. I think Hillary knows and understands this, which is why she doesn't advocate an immediate pullout. She knows what's really at risk. I think Obama doesn't.

I don't agree with the US policy. Better to prepare, and use what little cheap energy is left to acquire alternate renewable energy sources.

[bina]

thailand could expect a giant invasion of backpacking israelis looking for asylum from the war... we do that already so just quatruple the figures...

bad or good for thailand.......

now i'm just instigating )

bina

israel

[Nebukanezar]

thailand could expect a giant invasion of backpacking israelis looking for asylum from the war... we do that already so just quatruple the figures...

bad or good for thailand.......

now i'm just instigating )

bina

israel

I'll donate some T-Walls and seal off Kho Sarn rd for em.... Maybe set up donation cans at the Food Land for lil gold satang coins to send to the Kho Sarn area so the newly arrived refuges have something to pinch.

Edited April 6, 2007 by Nebukanezar