Thailand and Bangkok ‘most at risk’ from coronavirus, scientists warn

[RocketDog]

19 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Personally I think "the best we can do" is have governments that are more proactive instead of just being reactive to such disasters, and governments that do what is best for their citizens instead of what is best for the political party's agenda and goals.  This whole mess with N-CoV could have been greatly minimized, even "nipped in the bud" had the Chinese handled this quickly and decisively back in early December when it was first detected. 

 

When you think about it, many if not most health crises in China follow the same template.  Early on, deny there is a problem and punish those who voice concerns until a true disaster is realized, and only then react, and then find a scapegoat to blame it on.  If you look on Chinese social media, there's a common thread that this virus is the evil creation of the American government...and believe it or not it is widely believed by many Chinese citizens LOL! 

 

It's ironic that the Central government does nothing to squash these rumors with their so-called "Rumor laws" but use these same laws to harass, threaten and even arrest the scientists, doctors and journalists who first voiced concerns over what was happening early in December when this whole mess could have easily been avoided.  It's just crazy!  All for the sake of "saving face" for the Chinese Communist Party.  There's something really flawed in the political hierarchy of China that makes this happen countless times and as long as the CCP is the ruling party I guess it will continue to happen.  Unfortunately, the global community ends up paying a heavy toll more often than not.

I absolutely agree with all your post. I have never been a fan of the country or their government. I avoid even flying thru Chinese airports. 

[WaveHunter]

N-CoV is FAR MORE SERIOUS THAN THE FLU...CHINESE AND INTERNATIONAL HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS AND THE MEDIA ARE GROSSLY MISINFORMING THE PUBLIC!

 

 

For the UN health body to finally acknowledge this as a global health emergency, yet add the caveat that travel and trade need not be affected is really astonishing!  The actual facts suggest this is a very serious crisis that is being minimized by official agencies, certainly in China but also in many countries abroad as well.  The facts are that this virus has a very long incubation period, it's highly infective, it's got a very serious complication rate, and it's got a fairly elevated death rate.  That sounds pretty serious to me and yet WHO is not recommending the limiting trade or travel.

 

This sounds like WHO is acting on a more political manner than they should.  This is even more apparent when they praise China for their efforts at preventing and containing the outbreak. 

 

Nothing could be further from the truth.  China has done a horrible job of it so far, and being very deceptive in reporting the true extent of this crisis.  There has been a complete lockdown of any information from people on the frontline of this crisis now (i.e.: no actual and verifiable video footage inside hospitals in over 6 days now).  All we know is what the Chinese government is allowing us to know, which is mainly in the form of propaganda.

 

A number of doctors who have tried to report the actual facts on social media have been arrested by the Chinese government.  Under the "rumours law" in China you can go to jail for 7 years and as China ramps up its' propaganda as the virus spreads, they are cracking down on criticism. 

 

I have begun seeing many news story in the last 24 hours that suggest that China is possibly cremating bodies in secret as coronavirus deaths begin to spike.  There are anecdotal reports that the crematoriums in Wuhan have been running 24/7 the last few days.  If this were true it would mean they are managing hundreds of bodies per day instead of the official total of only 213 deaths.  Granted this in not confirmed by any means and sounds ghoulish for sure but given China's past practices at concealing the truth at any costs, not at all out of the question.

 

The latest stats I've seen are 9,776 confirmed cases and 213 deaths yet many media such as CNN are still comparing this virus in terms of severity to the common flu, and a CNBC interview was aired yesterday with former White House Health Advisor who made the statement that the death rate is much lower than SARS.  Both reports are INCREDIBLY MISLEADING!

 

For those who claim that the flu is a far more serious danger, you're wrong!  Consider this:

Note that the curves for SARS and Swine flu are NOT exponential as would be expected in a pandemic, but the curve 2019nCoV IS VERY INDICATIVE of one! 

 

CNN's report yesterday with its' "Click Bait" title shown here is completely misleading the public as to the seriousness of nCoV, inferring that the Flu is far more serious than nCoV, and THAT IS WRONG!!!:

 

Why do I say this?  Consider this:

 

First of all, consider that when influenza hits, a huge cohort of the population already has immunity to it which really stops the spread.  However nobody has been exposed to nCoV until now so there is no immunity. 

 

The most critical factor to consider right now is the virus's R0 value (pronounced “R-naught”).  The R0 is the mathematical representation of how well an infection might be able to spread.  With an R-Naught of 1.0, a virus will persist but not grow appreciably in the population.  After 10 cycles or "hops", the virus will be spread to only 11 people.  In the case of Flu with an R0 of 1.28, the virus will not only persist but spread to a greater number of people.  After 10 hops 15 people will be infected.  With an R-naught of 2.0 (such as in the Spanish Flu), after 10 hops, the virus will have spread to 2.048 people.  Now consider what happens after 20 hops...2,097,157 people will have been infected!

 

NOW consider n-CoV with a R0 of 2.5-3.5:  Using the more conservative R0 of only 2.5, here is a comparison of the Flu at 1.28 R0, and the Novel Coronavirus at the conservative R0 of only 2.5 after 20 hops:

 

That is 227,373,675 people infected from nCoV after 20 hops, compared with 178 people infected from Swine Flu!

 

To downplay the seriousness of this 2019 Novel Coronavirus and compare it with Influenza or even SARS is just ridiculous and totally irresponsible!

Edited January 31, 2020 by WaveHunter

[CGW]

3 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

so there is no immunity.

Sure, or just adding to the scaremongering?

[DrTuner]

Ah, no worries, real men travel to Wuhan an lick the cages at the seafood market, it's just a wee flu, right? 

 

There's a tendency among some people to play things down to soothe their worries. I recommend reverting to data such as Lancet publications. 

[Gweiloman]

This whole scaremongering thing is just a laff. 
We’ve been reading about it for days/weeks? and yet, not a single person has died outside of China and only about 200 in China. Not even a drop in the ocean. 
China has done fantastically well in containing the spread. I doubt if any other western country would have had the b**ls to impose such strong measures. 
Going forward, I hope that China will take stricter measures in regards to health and hygiene. Ban sale and consumption of wild and exotic animals. Start migrating open air wet markets into more enclosed and hygienic areas. Prices will undoubtedly increase but this is a relatively small price to pay. 

[WaveHunter]

22 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

This whole scaremongering thing is just a laff. 
We’ve been reading about it for days/weeks? and yet, not a single person has died outside of China and only about 200 in China. Not even a drop in the ocean. 
China has done fantastically well in containing the spread. I doubt if any other western country would have had the b**ls to impose such strong measures. 
Going forward, I hope that China will take stricter measures in regards to health and hygiene. Ban sale and consumption of wild and exotic animals. Start migrating open air wet markets into more enclosed and hygienic areas. Prices will undoubtedly increase but this is a relatively small price to pay. 

Your assessment of the situation in China is what's a "laff"  You are not very well informed at all if you think this is scaremongering, or you really think China has handled this well.  The first reported cases were back in early December yet the government did nothing to contain it then.  In fact, after 57 cases had been reported, they were actively promoting an open-air Lunar New Year banquet for a record breaking 100,000 people, all eating from the same dishes, and only 7km from the seafood market that is believed to be ground-zero!  Does that sound like proper management to you?

 

Even when they did the 'right thing" and declared a lockdown they did not do it until almost 5 million residents had already left Wuhan for Holiday!  And even worse, they announced the lockdown at least a day before instituting it so at least 200,000 cars were estimated to have fled the city before lockdown occurred.

 

Yeah, the Chinese government has done a real admirable job here LOL!  Right now, we only know what the Chinese government wants us to know, and mostly it is just "face saving" propaganda and dangerous misinformation.  People who are trying to get the truth out to the global community through social media that are actually on the front line, like Chinese scientists, doctors, and journalists are aggressively being arrested!

Edited January 31, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

20 minutes ago, CGW said:

Sure, or just adding to the scaremongering?

I am just presenting facts clearly and concisely from reliable and science-based sources.

[CGW]

19 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

reliable and science-based sources.

They state there is "no immunity"? frankly that is ridiculous it means that everyone that comes into contact will come down with the virus - were doomed! 

What about natural immunity, seems to be working for the vast majority or do these reliable sources consider this a temporary glitch? when in truth - we are doomed 

Edited January 31, 2020 by CGW

[WaveHunter]

15 minutes ago, CGW said:

They state there is "no immunity"? frankly that is ridiculous it means that everyone that comes into contact will come down with the virus - were doomed! 

What about natural immunity, seems to be working for the vast majority or do these reliable sources consider this a temporary glitch? when in truth - we are doomed 

You need to consider that this is a wholly NEW virus (thus the term "novel").  The body has no natural immunity to it yet, and there are no anti-viral drugs that are proving effective at countering it yet.  That all takes time to develop. 

 

What ends up killing with this virus is ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and once it sets in, the only current treatment option is low tidal volume ventilation, Neuromuscular Blockers to assist proper ventilation, and prone positioning (links included to the New England Journal of Medicine white papers on ARDS.  These treatment options may reduce mortality rate a little but not that much.

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by WaveHunter

[CGW]

Just now, WaveHunter said:

You need to consider that this is a wholly NEW virus (thus the term "novel).  The body has no natural immunity to it yet, and there are no anti-viral drugs that are proving effective at countering it yet.  That all takes time.

What you are stating is that if we come into contact, as we have no natural immunity, we will succumb to the virus? look at the facts, its not true.

The immune system is working all the time and adapts very quickly, that is why the old and vulnerable are the first to be affected, their immune systems are depleted and have difficulty or are unable to react.

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, CGW said:

What you are stating is that if we come into contact, as we have no natural immunity, we will succumb to the virus? look at the facts, its not true.

The immune system is working all the time and adapts very quickly, that is why the old and vulnerable are the first to be affected, their immune systems are depleted and have difficulty or are unable to react.

Not only that, while some have died, others have recovered and, where hospitalised, have been discharged and sent home because no longer affected

[Gweiloman]

34 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Your assessment of the situation in China is what's a "laff"  You are not very well informed at all if you think this is scaremongering, or you really think China has handled this well.  The first reported cases were back in early December yet the government did nothing to contain it then.  In fact, after 57 cases had been reported, they were actively promoting an open-air Lunar New Year banquet for a record breaking 100,000 people, all eating from the same dishes, and only 7km from the seafood market that is believed to be ground-zero!  Does that sound like proper management to you?

 

Even when they did the 'right thing" and declared a lockdown they did not do it until almost 5 million residents had already left Wuhan for Holiday!  And even worse, they announced the lockdown at least a day before instituting it so at least 200,000 cars were estimated to have fled the city before lockdown occurred.

 

Yeah, the Chinese government has done a real admirable job here LOL!  Right now, we only know what the Chinese government wants us to know, and mostly it is just "face saving" propaganda and dangerous misinformation.  People who are trying to get the truth out to the global community through social media that are actually on the front line, like Chinese scientists, doctors, and journalists are aggressively being arrested!

Since early December, you said. And here we are end of January. So a whole 2 months and millions of Chinese having travelled to all corners of the world. And yet, not a single death and only about 200 in a population of 1.3 billion. 
In the meantime, how many have died from influenza and other ailments? Road accidents? Planes crashes?

[WaveHunter]

41 minutes ago, CGW said:

What you are stating is that if we come into contact, as we have no natural immunity, we will succumb to the virus? look at the facts, its not true.

The immune system is working all the time and adapts very quickly, that is why the old and vulnerable are the first to be affected, their immune systems are depleted and have difficulty or are unable to react.

I did not say "succumb" but the chances of becoming infected are fairly certain if the virus is able to enter the respiratory tract!  That does not mean symptoms will necessarily occur or that it will naturally progress to ARDS. 

 

My point is that many who are infected may only have mild symptoms or none at all yet still be infected and be able to transmit the virus to other humans who may have greater susceptibility to develop serious symptoms or even death..  

 

Furthermore, there is growing evidence that it is not only the elderly or those with compromised health that are being infected.  Seriously, this is a NEW virus and nobody really knows much about it or it's potential yet. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Ventenio]

16 hours ago, lonewolf99 said:

Anoraks pouring over the statisitcs.

Anorak.   Great word, I didn't have to look it up.  

[CGW]

6 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

infected are fairly certain if the virus is able to enter the respiratory system!

Again, why? the respiratory system is part of our overall immune system, why should it just shut down, it's working all the time (removing PM2.5!) 

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, CGW said:

Again, why? the respiratory system is part of our overall immune system, why should it just shut down, it's working all the time (removing PM2.5!) 

Good point. The PM2.5 is a strain on the immune system, creating a pre-existing condition for the new virus to attack. So is the ongoing flu season, people already have compromised immune systems. Not to mention the general state of people's fitness having gone down for decades. Healthy lifestyle, vaccinations and information are one's best protection.

[Ventenio]

Let me give my normal bad analogy for some comedy to myself:

 

This is like being in Belgium during the winter of 1944-45 and you are part of the American 117th Infantry Regiment.   see (OK, not see...overcast.  hear) tons of planes overhead.  One bomb drops, nobody dies.  The problem, supply lines are cut off (Wuhan, supply lines cut off).....and you HOPE things get better, but the worst is yet to come.  Don't worry, humans will win against Corona, but it will be a WAR and I'm staying away from cities with big Chinese population.  Sorry to the Chinese, but I need to hunker down.....  We are all wearing "insufficient winter clothes" and we might be laughing now....but the laughter will stop.   so now, laugh, enjoy....

Edited January 31, 2020 by Ventenio

[WaveHunter]

17 minutes ago, CGW said:

Again, why? the respiratory system is part of our overall immune system, why should it just shut down, it's working all the time (removing PM2.5!) 

Am I certain that every single person who comes in contact with the virus will be infected?  No!  Am I concerned that the likelihood of becoming infected coming in contact is very high?  Absolutely!  I think the statistics coming out of China, even though most of it is being filtered by Chinese government to be less frightening than it is, is still great cause for concern.

 

Again, the body has no effective natural defenses for it...or close to 10,000 reported cases would not exist right now.  And when you look at the R-naught value of THIS virus, that is what is really cause for concern!  Do you understand the significance of R-naught?  If you do not, you should!  Read my previous post again about that or google it.

 

You have to consider that even if this is not lethal for many people, it is lethal for certain subgroups (i.e.: elderly or otherwise health compromised).  Contracting the virus might not be a death sentence for most, but being a carrier may become a death sentence for someone in a vulnerable subgroup who contracts it from that carrier.  Thus, the R-naught value of THIS virus is what's really important to appreciate.

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DrTuner]

Here's what will happen when the outbreaks surpass the capabilities of the diagnostic and health care system: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/chinese-health-care-virus-intl-hnk/index.html

 

The result is no ICU available and mortality will increase because of lack of them. I think the percentage that required ICU (severe cases) is over 20%.

Edited January 31, 2020 by DrTuner

[CGW]

30 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Healthy lifestyle, vaccinations and information are one's best protection.

Vaccinations and healthy lifestyle, can they be mentioned in the same sentence?

Its all gloom and doom then, least it is if you look for all the negatives! I will really on my immune system working as designed as they have done for many thousands of years! How many articles have you read? how many contradict each other? your getting desperate for info when you are using CNN!

The worst thing that can happen is we die! its not the end of the world! ????

I won't be dying from stress as some are heading towards!

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, CGW said:

How many articles have you read? how many contradict each other? your getting desperate for info when you are using CNN!

Hundreds. Yes it's a jungle out there, requires media filtering capabilities. CNN used to be ok eons ago before being overtaken by the alphabet/leftie crowd. They still do have some articles, mostly real-time or exclusive interviews worth reading. Like the one I linked.

 

Quote

I won't be dying from stress as some are heading towards!

Having quality information decreases stress. Getting it is admittedly stressful. Politicians have started to muddle the pool already.

Edited January 31, 2020 by DrTuner

[CGW]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

requires media filtering capabilities.

Used to be called "common sense" ????

CNN, used to be ok, so did the BBC, Google used to be very good, unfortunately now it has sucked people in "Google is your friend"  it is now so powerful it has no need to do anything but control the masses 

With help from "Big Brother" FB off course, can only imagine the nonsense being spewed out there.

Who would ever have suspected the world Police would choose Silicone Valley as there headquarters!

Rant over - & the last day of a long alcohol free January! 

[Tulak]

On 1/30/2020 at 4:27 AM, khunpa said:

 

Agree that it is "strange" my Thailand has not yet updated their numbers. But since the PM yesterday said everything is under control and they today annonce possible outbreaks, I think they working on the numbers right now. I can not wait to see what numbers they come up with.

I believe new numbers will be released on 7th. Feb 

[DrTuner]

55 minutes ago, Tulak said:

I believe new numbers will be released on 7th. Feb 

WHO should lean on heavily on Thai DDC to get the lab tests done and release the real numbers. Maximum pressure is needed to break the stupid wall of face. No mercy.

[Tayaout]

18 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

WHO should lean on heavily on Thai DDC to get the lab tests done and release the real numbers. Maximum pressure is needed to break the stupid wall of face. No mercy.

There was an update today.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Why the 2019 Novel Coronavirus is much worse than the Flu or SARS, yet being reported by mainstream media as exactly the opposite.

 

Consider the current statistics:

 

1 Case Fatality Rate

Comparatively, this is a huge fatality rate.

 

Where did you get the 3% from? Lancet's two papers were at 15% for the first 41 confirmed that ended in death or recovery, and >11% for another 99 confirmed (not all cases had resolved yet, it was just a five day period).

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

 

EDIT: And here's a more generic study about mortatility rates with pneumonia caused by a virus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6901688/ . 14.4%.

Edited January 31, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

There was an update today.

This one? https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no27-300163.pdf

 

The backlog has been increasing in tandem with new cases. Diagnosis train completely plugged.

 

EDIT: found it, https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1146107-thailand-confirms-first-human-to-human-coronavirus-transmission-total-number-of-cases-now-at-19/#comments

Edited January 31, 2020 by DrTuner

[ThailandRyan]

So where are the Thailand numbers? They do not exist in the charts listed as of June 30th.  They are only still showing 14, and those are listed in the writeup in sections 3 and 4.  I am beginning to think there are numbers games being played....go figure.

[Tayaout]

31 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

This one? https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no27-300163.pdf

 

The backlog has been increasing in tandem with new cases. Diagnosis train completely plugged.

 

EDIT: found it, https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1146107-thailand-confirms-first-human-to-human-coronavirus-transmission-total-number-of-cases-now-at-19/#comments

I use BNO they update in real time and give the source. 

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

I use BNO they update in real time and give the source. 

Huh, their source for Thailand was bbc.com : https://www.bbc.com/thai/amp/thailand-51321489 . Data sure is coming out from strange outlets.