Thailand and Bangkok ‘most at risk’ from coronavirus, scientists warn

[otherstuff1957]

I noticed that it is rather difficult to get firm, current numbers of those infected and of fatalities just by doing a quick google.  Few media outlets bother to hire a writer with a scientific background, so most new stories a light on facts and heavy on political (i.e. worthless) quotes.

 

Here is a link to a website with some good, hard numbers:

 Johns Hopkins/WHO Coronavirus tracking

 

Taking a look at the number of infected from Jan. 26 to Jan 29, where the data levels out to a nice straight line, we can see that the number of infected roughly doubles every 2 days.  There are almost 8,000 reported cases on the 29th, with 170 deaths.

 

If this trend continues, and it takes another 30 days to develop and distribute a vaccine, we could easily get up to 50 - 100 million cases and 2,000,000 deaths (the death rate for this virus seems to be about 2.5 - 3%, or the same as a bad flu).

 

The number of cases and deaths in most epidemics can be graphed in a bell shaped curve.  I suspect that we are entering the steep, upward part of the curve now and will peak in a month or so, depending on how soon an effective treatment or vaccine can be developed.

[WaveHunter]

13 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

...If this trend continues, and it takes another 30 days to develop and distribute a vaccine, we could easily get up to 50 - 100 million cases and 2,000,000 deaths (the death rate for this virus seems to be about 2.5 - 3%, or the same as a bad flu)....

 

30 days to a vaccine?  Where are you getting that information.  The most optimistic projection I have seen (from the NIH) is 3 months, and many researchers are saying far longer.

 

Also, your numbers are not correct for flu mortality rate.  It is far less (i.e.: more like 0.1%).

 

Right now, the mortality rate for n-CoV is about 2.3% (based on actual deaths), but as others have pointed out this is not a reliable indication of a "true" mortality rate since the actual number of those infected is probably far greater than the Chinese are reporting.  A higher infection rate would yield a lower mortality rate if you see what I mean (assuming the deaths are directly a result of n-CoV...and I guess you could say that the ACTUAL cause of death could be in question). 

 

Bottom line...The actual mortality rate will only be known from a historical perspective after the outbreak has been contained.

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

Clearly the paper masks are not washable but also probably not very effective, as others have warned. 

 

Again, for the disposable masks, you need to distinguish between the paper drugstore variety "surgical" masks vs. the N95 class respirator masks.

 

The former have limited value in preventing viral exposure. The latter have very good value in preventing viral exposure, at least in terms of inhaled exposure. But neither type protect the wearer's eyes.

 

[RocketDog]

Just now, WaveHunter said:

From what I have read, this virus is remarkably resilient in air and sunlight.  The protein capsules apparently can maintain integrity for up to five days outside of a living host.  At least, that's what I've read from several difference credible, science-based sources. 

Good point, I wondered about that. 

However, your information seems at odds with CDC saying that HIV and other STDs don't survive long on toilet seats.

 

Makes me wonder about Betadine though, which is readily available here. 

 

Hard to know the truth about these things but it is clear that viruses and bacteria can and do mutate rapidly with unexpected results. See the Andromeda Strain movie. 

 

Many viruses, including HIV, must create the protein capsule before they leave the infected cell and enter the bloodstream or outside world. One popular HIV drug interferes with this ability, thereby reducing the virus load in the blood. 

 

UV is remarkably effective against bacteria and MOST viruses but also hell on plastics. As others here have noted, extreme dryness also kills micro-organisms. I used to dry vegetables that lasted decades in Mason jars. Also dried meats and salted fish are good examples of moisture exclusion preservation. 

 

So maybe a light IPA misting followed by a soapy wash and then short air/sunlight exposure is the ticket. A portable UV light might be a handy thing to have around as well. 

 

As a final note, it has been scientifically proven that garlic, crucifixes, and metallic silver have no demonstrable effect on vampires and werewolves. Just sayin'. 

 

Sigh........ 

 

As with most things in life and especially in the Kingdom, one can only do what one can do. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

a full-blown NIOSH certified gas mask with carbon and HEPA filters replaceable. 

 

The disposable N95 masks like those made by 3M also are NIOSH certified for blocking non-oil-based particulates.

 

One example:

 

Quote

This respirator can also help reduce inhalation exposures to certain airborne biological particles (examples: mold, Bacillus anthracis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis), but cannot eliminate the risk of contracting infection, illness, or disease. The respirator incorporates 3M’s proprietary technology with advanced electrostatically charged microfiber filter media designed for ease of breathing. 

 

https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/company-us/all-3m-products/~/3M-Particulate-Respirator-8210-N95-160-EA-Case/?N=5002385+3294780268&rt=rud

[WaveHunter]

6 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

Good point, I wondered about that. 

However, your information seems at odds with CDC saying that HIV and other STDs don't survive long on toilet seats.

 

Makes me wonder about Betadine though, which is readily available here. 

 

Hard to know the truth about these things but it is clear that viruses and bacteria can and do mutate rapidly with unexpected results. See the Andromeda Strain movie. 

 

Many viruses, including HIV, must create the protein capsule before they leave the infected cell and enter the bloodstream or outside world. One popular HIV drug interferes with this ability, thereby reducing the virus load in the blood. 

 

UV is remarkably effective against bacteria and MOST viruses but also hell on plastics. As others here have noted, extreme dryness also kills micro-organisms. I used to dry vegetables that lasted decades in Mason jars. Also dried meats and salted fish are good examples of moisture exclusion preservation. 

 

So maybe a light IPA misting followed by a soapy wash and then short air/sunlight exposure is the ticket. A portable UV light might be a handy thing to have around as well. 

 

As a final note, it has been scientifically proven that garlic, crucifixes, and metallic silver have no demonstrable effect on vampires and werewolves. Just sayin'. 

 

Sigh........ 

 

As with most things in life and especially in the Kingdom, one can only do what one can do. 

My point is that THIS virus is different from HIV in this regard.  The fact that this is a brand new coronavirus is what makes it so dangerous.  There is still much to learn about it.

 

Also, with regard to your last sentence regarding the Kingdom, I think it might be more proper to say "one can only do what the authorities allow to be done"  Considering there are more confirmed infections in Thailand than any other country in the world aside from China makes me very nervous about the judgement and actions Thai officials will take in the next few days and weeks.  So far...I am NOT impressed.

Edited January 30, 2020 by WaveHunter

[anchadian]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/more-airlines-drop-flights-to-china-as-virus-spreads/

More airlines drop flights to China as virus spreads
 

Edited January 30, 2020 by anchadian

[cerox]

I am more worried about air pollution when my mask supply runs out.

For the virus a simple surgical mask preventing you touching your face would be the same effect as a N95.

Seems I can get some in Europe in about 14 days to stock up and bring them here. But really expensive - I saw some for around 2 EUR per piece and last time in the 3M shop I bought the N95 for 20 THB per piece.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Having bought a few masks just before they were sold out, I  too worry about reuse. Have you thought about soaking the mask in rubbing alcohol for a while and letting it dry out? 70% Ethyl alcohol is the best mixture for killing viruses, that's why they use 70%. The masks are made of "non woven mesh"  so the worry would be degradation of the mesh. Alcohol is pretty mild though. Maybe I will try with one and see what happens, I have a microscope that can resolve 0.5 microns. Water/alcohol would also help remove hoofing bi-products.

UV light. Spray with disinfectant and let dry in the sun. Supply will be a major problem in the future so reuse as long as feasible.

[RocketDog]

Just now, WaveHunter said:

My point is that THIS virus is different from HIV in this regard.  The fact that this is a brand new coronavirus is what makes it so dangerous.  There is still much to learn about it.

Agreed.

I also made the point that every virus is different and can quickly become different again. Let's avoid any discussions about prions lest we go down the rabbit hole. Your point of having lots to learn is well taken. 

 

Humans have waged this war with microbes for all our history, as has every other living thing on the planet. It will never end.... It's called evolution. 

 

The best most of us can do is rely on knowledge gained from past experience with micro-organisms to protect ourselves. 

 

Every day is a new goose.. or bat, rat, bird, monkey, fish, etc ad nauseum. 

[DrTuner]

27 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

Taking a look at the number of infected from Jan. 26 to Jan 29, where the data levels out to a nice straight line, we can see that the number of infected roughly doubles every 2 days. 

That tells me they are probably at the limit of their diagnosis capabilities, about 2k a day. Viruses tend to spread exponentially, not linearly. Number of undiagnosed is unknown.

[ben2talk]

On 1/29/2020 at 10:21 AM, ianezy0 said:

Too many reasons to justify wearing a quality mask at the moment.

1. Coronavirus.

2. Burn offs (Pollution)

3. Traffic fumes (pollution)

 

ROFL

Actually, a surgical mask is good for preventing infection from people within a metre maybe - but for pollution you need N95 - and they're not really suitable for wearing full time - it's also hard to find masks that don't fog up your glasses.

 

Best defence is simply to maintain a safe distance, and also to be anal about hand hygiene - avoid hand to face contact (also helped if you wear a surgical mask - but that doesn't protect eyes) and basically avoid handling doorknobs (feet and elbows best) and railings.

 

I'd say #1 on the list would be a small pocket alchohol hand sanitiser and some basic awareness.

[ben2talk]

On 1/29/2020 at 1:38 PM, simtemple said:

Chinese Doctors are recommending disposable eye goggles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7926243/Killer-coronavirus-SPREAD-eyes.html

Why not create a panic?

This is for Doctors working with infected patients - they should have disposable goggles, n99 masks, gloves and suits.

Not useful for just going to the Mall really - and not necessary unless you're getting close to people (biggest risk is probably the 7-11 queue...).

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, cerox said:

For the virus a simple surgical mask preventing you touching your face would be the same effect as a N95.

 

No it wouldn't be the same effect...  In terms of avoiding face touching, yes. But in terms of respiration, no.

 

A simple surgical mask is not airtight on the wearer's face, allowing unfiltered air to easily be breathed in.

 

An N95 mask, on the other hand, if worn properly, is basically airtight on the face and filters any air breathed in to a high degree, including stopping airborne particles.

 

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, RocketDog said:

Agreed.

I also made the point that every virus is different and can quickly become different again. Let's avoid any discussions about prions lest we go down the rabbit hole. Your point of having lots to learn is well taken. 

 

Humans have waged this war with microbes for all our history, as has every other living thing on the planet. It will never end.... It's called evolution. 

 

The best most of us can do is rely on knowledge gained from past experience with micro-organisms to protect ourselves. 

 

Every day is a new goose.. or bat, rat, bird, monkey, fish, etc ad nauseum. 

Personally I think "the best we can do" is have governments that are more proactive instead of just being reactive to such disasters, and governments that do what is best for their citizens instead of what is best for the political party's agenda and goals.  This whole mess with N-CoV could have been greatly minimized, even "nipped in the bud" had the Chinese handled this quickly and decisively back in early December when it was first detected. 

 

When you think about it, many if not most health crises in China follow the same template.  Early on, deny there is a problem and punish those who voice concerns until a true disaster is realized, and only then react, and then find a scapegoat to blame it on.  If you look on Chinese social media, there's a common thread that this virus is the evil creation of the American government...and believe it or not it is widely believed by many Chinese citizens LOL! 

 

It's ironic that the Central government does nothing to squash these rumors with their so-called "Rumor laws" but use these same laws to harass, threaten and even arrest the scientists, doctors and journalists who first voiced concerns over what was happening early in December when this whole mess could have easily been avoided.  It's just crazy!  All for the sake of "saving face" for the Chinese Communist Party.  There's something really flawed in the political hierarchy of China that makes this happen countless times and as long as the CCP is the ruling party I guess it will continue to happen.  Unfortunately, the global community ends up paying a heavy toll more often than not.

Edited January 30, 2020 by WaveHunter

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

UV light. Spray with disinfectant and let dry in the sun. Supply will be a major problem in the future so reuse as long as feasible.

 

Do you have some credible source for that kind of advice, assuming you're referring to dealing with the "non woven mesh" material masks that Rabas was describing?

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

Quote

On January 29, 2020 there were 5,974 confirmed cases across all regions in the People's Republic of China (except for Xizang). 1,239 cases are in critical condition, 132 have died and there are a total 6,066 confirmed cases around the world.

 

Those are the Thai government recaps as of yesterday.

 

Today's numbers out of China are considerably higher:

170 dead in China, up 38 from the prior day

more than 1700 new China cases diagnosed

more than 7700 total cases now confirmed in China

 

And then a world recap, with Thailand still having the most confirmed cases outside of China:

 

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-deaths-hubei-province-toll-12368792?cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Do you have some credible source for that kind of advice, assuming you're referring to dealing with the "non woven mesh" material masks that Rabas was describing?

UV disinfection in general: https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(10)00420-7/pdf . I'm assuming the droplets with the viral load would be sitting on the outer layer of the mask and hence readily accessible by the UV radiation.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

UV disinfection in general: https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(10)00420-7/pdf . I'm assuming the droplets with the viral load would be sitting on the outer layer of the mask and hence readily accessible by the UV radiation.

 

The question would be, what if any impact the kind of treatment you're suggesting would have on the integrity/performance of the mask material, which I'm guessing you're gonna have a hard time finding any info on.

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The question would be, what if any impact the kind of treatment you're suggesting would have on the integrity/performance of the mask material, which I'm guessing you're gonna have a hard time finding any info on.

I do have experience of leaving masks in sunlight at construction sites. The rubber bands seem to harden and disintegrate first, the mask itself just bleaches. No idea how it effects the filtration efficiency. 3M might have some data in their specs.

[DrTuner]

Here's more about UV : https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02786820500428575?src=recsys

 

Quote

Viruses are obligate parasites that are biologically active only within their host. Viruses can be transmitted by various routes, including direct and indirect contact, vector transmission, and vehicle transmission. For deadly viruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus, influenza virus, and enterovirus, the vehicle transmission pathways include respiratory transmission by droplets and aerosols, as well as fecal-oral transmission via water, food, and environmental surfaces. To reduce infection risk from virus infection, control techniques for inactivating such viruses have been extensively researched (Jensen 1964; Gerba et al. 2002; Shin et al. 2003; Thurston-Enriquez et al. 2003). Among these control techniques, ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) was demonstrated to be extremely efficient for virus inactivation (Jensen 1964; Galasso et al. 1965; Gerba et al. 2002; Nuanualsuwan et al. 2003; Thurston-Enriquez et al. 2003).

 

You can get UV lights from aquarium shops and shops that cater for nail arts ( They dry the glue with UV ) and of course the sun is free. The magic word is "germicidal", UV at 253.7 nm wavelength is most efficient.

Edited January 30, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

18 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Yesterday's DDC report said they had 102 cases with lab results pending...

 

And according to the DDC's daily reports, the backlog of yet to be finalized lab result cases has been growing pretty rapidly:

 

Jan 19 -- 14

Jan 20 -- 8

Jan 21 -- 12

Jan 22 -- 15

Jan 23 -- 20

Jan 24 -- 22

Jan 25 -- 42

Jan 26 -- 54

Jan 27 -- 79

Jan 28 -- 102

 

They seem to be falling further behind... unless the pace of incoming potential cases slows, or they increase their lab testing capability.

 

 

The number of Patients Under Investigation (PUI) in Thailand whose cases are awaiting lab diagnosis is now up to 144 as of yesterday, according to the Thai DDC report out this afternoon, reflecting their status as of yesterday.

 

Quote

There are 144 cases in which laboratory results are pending.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no26-290163.pdf

 

Quote

Among all PUI, 109 are admitted at hospitals, including 69 at government hospitals and 40 at private hospitals, and 27 are in isolation rooms for healthcare providers to monitor their clinical signs. 66 cases recovered from their illnesses and returned to their homes.

 

[Shocked farang]

On 1/29/2020 at 10:49 AM, buick said:

i've read similar warnings which also say to be very careful when removing the mask.  don't touch your face during the process (carefully use ear straps only for removal) and only use the mask once (that is for the standard surgical mask which as noted above, isn't 100% reliable in term of protection from the virus).

The surgical mask only works as a protection if the person wearing it coughs he will not spread around the particles coming from his mouth/nose. Anyone looking for real protection should look for better and more expensive breathers that come with the code N95, they look like a standard mask but have a breathing valve and it forms like a seal around the face. I have one that I got in Vietnam that works really well.

[Tayaout]

56 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

 

Those are the Thai government recaps as of yesterday.

 

Today's numbers out of China are considerably higher:

170 dead in China, up 38 from the prior day

more than 1700 new China cases diagnosed

more than 7700 total cases now confirmed in China

 

And then a world recap, with Thailand still having the most confirmed cases outside of China:

 

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-deaths-hubei-province-toll-12368792?cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

If you want real-time stats then check this site: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

The stats you posted are already outdated. India and Philippines are now on the list. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Tayaout

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

If you want real-time stats then check this site: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

The stats you posted are already outdated. 

Thanks, that one has numbers for "serious" and "critical" too, giving an overview of how the figures might turn out. In Hubei alone:

Quote

711 serious, 277 critical

277 critical likely means they are in ICU in a bad shape. Not sure what qualifies as serious.

 

There are also links to the sources from China. Better than JHU, I hope they switch to the same sources instead of dxy.

Edited January 30, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

If you want real-time stats then check this site: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

The stats you posted are already outdated. India and Philippines are now on the list. 

 

The total fatality numbers were the same. The diagnosed cases were about 100 apart. The Channel News Asia data was specifically timed current as of early this morning. The BNO data seems to be as of this afternoon Thai time / 3+ am ET U.S. I presume.

Edited January 30, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Tayaout]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The total fatality numbers were the same. The diagnosed cases were about 100 apart. The Channel News Asia data was specifically timed current as of early this morning. I can't tell when the BNO data is current as of.

 

The timestamp is right on top of the China table. I have been following Twitter and Reddit and BNO add verified cases before I even see them. 

[lonewolf99]

Don't you just love disasters?

The way that people turn it into a game like cricket or baseball. Anoraks pouring over the statisitcs.

How many dead? How many sick? per country per city etc.,

 

Last time a thing like this hit hard was in 1917 through to 1920. The western governments covered up the real death totals and blamed it all on neutral Spain, who stayed out of the war, and called it Spanish flu. Global numbers of dead

ranged between 50 to 100 million. If you were buying screws/nails and paid for 100 million and only 50 million turned up you would be annoyed at such poor basic arithmetics.

 

Governments believe it or not have a habit of telling lies, all the time.

I believe less of what the Chinese tell us than the junta in LoS.

Which is a big fat absolute zero on everything.

 

On the upside. We get less news on global warming, Brexit and Harry and

Megan.....

 

 

[Tayaout]

"The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China." 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246

 

Edit: already posted. 

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Tayaout

[Prairieboy]

On 1/29/2020 at 10:13 AM, webfact said:

Thailand is not able to stop the spread of new coronavirus.

Also not able to stop highway slaughter, not able to stop corruption  and on and on and on!