Thailand confirms first human-to-human coronavirus transmission, total number of cases now at 19

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Since Anutin broached the suspending China visa on arrivals proposal the other day, and then the PM apparently responded unfavorably to it, I haven't heard/seen anything further on the subject/proposal????

 

Oooppsss.... Other subsequent news reports including ones I've posted in other threads on that particular subject now saying that the PM has called for a hold on the proposal, and wants Anutin to discuss it first with other parts of the government, including the Tourism ministry. So let's take our time, and talk this thing out at length...

 

 

[morrobay]

5 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Here's the updated daily tally on the growing number of possible virus cases for which the Thai medical authorities are "waiting" for final lab results one way or the other:

 

Jan 19 -- 14

Jan 20 -- 8

Jan 21 -- 12

Jan 22 -- 15

Jan 23 -- 20

Jan 24 -- 22

Jan 25 -- 42

Jan 26 -- 54

Jan 27 -- 79

Jan 28 -- 102

Jan 29 -- 144

Jan 30 -- 220

Jan 31 -- 287

 

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

So in 13 days cases went from 14 to 287 and the exponential factor is 14^2.1439=287. Then if that's the case, then just the numbers could be 287^2.1439=185,974 in 13 days. If that is epidemiological possible. But this is just pure math not considering the variables so I don't think the numbers would go that high. Time for an epidemiologist to correct this. 

Edited February 1, 2020 by morrobay

[GroveHillWanderer]

5 hours ago, cryo said:

We will just have to accept that until an antiviral is made to combat this virus a large majority in all probability will get this virus at some time or another in the minimum 6 months to a year it will take to achieve and test an antiviral. 

Antiviral medicine will not stop people getting the virus, it will only minimize the effects and aid in recovery. There are already several antivirals that might be used and some show particular promise, such as remdesivir, which has already shown in vitro and in vivo activity against both MERS and SARS which are coronaviruses similar to 2019-nCoV.

 

A vaccine could prevent people getting sick in the first place and thanks in part to recent advances in vaccine development methods, a vaccine based on mRNA technology should be ready for human trials by as soon as April, according to Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

 

Both the mRNA vaccine and remdesivir are mentioned in the following article:

 

Novel Coronavirus

[Tongjaw]

9 hours ago, Creasy said:

Australia bans all non citizens who have been to china from entering the country.

 

Qantas cancels  flights to China.

 

Wake up Thailand .

The suspension of flights will not come into effect till Feb 9th. Why wait, they should suspend them now. 

[Tony125]

Latest Reports as of 8 AM 2/2/2020  Thailand time

Early missteps and state secrecy in China probably allowed the coronavirus to spread farther and faster

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/early-missteps-and-state-secrecy-in-china-probably-allowed-the-coronavirus-to-spread-farther-and-faster/ar-BBZya9o?li=BBnbfcL

[cerox]

I am curious what happens if I get the virus, recover. Is the body immune after that or can you get it a second time?

[metisdead]

Posts containing unattributed content have been removed. Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting:

 

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[Tayaout]

5 minutes ago, cerox said:

I am curious what happens if I get the virus, recover. Is the body immune after that or can you get it a second time?

They are not sure yet. 

 

"Medical experts on Friday warned that patients who had recovered from the virus were still at risk of being infected again, and said people should avoid any mass gathering, even dancing in public parks and squares – a popular activity for exercise in China."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048320/china-coronavirus-deadly-day-hubei-record-high-42-patients-die

[Tony125]

China reports bird flu outbreak in Hunan province

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-reports-bird-flu-outbreak-213148810.html

 

Now they have reports of Bird Flu outbreak again !  Guess their sanitary conditions are not very good since all these outbreaks seem to come from China

[zydeco]

13 minutes ago, Tony125 said:

China reports bird flu outbreak in Hunan province

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-reports-bird-flu-outbreak-213148810.html

 

Now they have reports of Bird Flu outbreak again !  Guess their sanitary conditions are not very good since all these outbreaks seem to come from China

And don't forget the ongoing HogHolocaust

[metisdead]

An off topic post containing unattributed information has been removed. 

[ParkerN]

15 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Oooppsss.... Other subsequent news reports including ones I've posted in other threads on that particular subject now saying that the PM has called for a hold on the proposal, and wants Anutin to discuss it first with other parts of the government, including the Tourism ministry. So let's take our time, and talk this thing out at length...

 

 

And with any luck, the problem will solve itself while we are still talking.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by ParkerN

[morrobay]

On 2/1/2020 at 11:06 PM, morrobay said:

So in 13 days cases went from 14 to 287 and the exponential factor is 14^2.1439=287. Then if that's the case, then just the numbers could be 287^2.1439=185,974 in 13 days. If that is epidemiological possible. But this is just pure math not considering the variables so I don't think the numbers would go that high. Time for an epidemiologist to correct this. 

Wrong I should have used the exponential growth equation: N(t) = N(o) e^kt So in 12 days starting at 287  cases the correct expression is N(12) = 287e^.25(12) = 5764. And thats assuming exponential growth. k is calculated constant.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Interesting piece in the New York Times yesterday on how several of the SE Asian countries that are both most exposed to China and its virus, and have closest relations with China including Thailand seem to be trying their hardest to avoid doing anything to offend the Chinese government -- virus risk to their citizens notwithstanding.  I just excerpted some of the Thailand-related content below, but the full article gives a good snapshot of most of the SE Asian countries and their actions.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-philippines-thailand.html?

 

Quote

 

Quieter Response to Coronavirus in Countries Where China Holds Sway

Top officials in Southeast Asia have played down the threat of the virus and shied away from travel bans. Some have even pushed supposed remedies not supported by science.

...

With 19 confirmed cases, Thailand has the second-largest number of cases outside China, followed by Singapore, with 18. Thailand announced on Friday that a Thai taxi driver had tested positive for coronavirus, most likely after coming into contact with a Chinese traveler. Yet even as the threat of human-to-human transmission grows, the country’s health officials have counseled against undue concern.

...

In Thailand, where normally bustling airports have been emptied of holidaymakers and tourism officials say that arrivals from China could drop by 80 percent in the first four months of this year, Anutin Charnvirakul, the public health minister, recommended temporarily revoking the country’s visa-on-arrival program for mainland Chinese travelers. .... Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand called for Mr. Anutin to check in with tourism officials before submitting a formal proposal to the cabinet, a process that could take days.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK